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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3313038 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
explorer
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June 05, 2022, 12:20:08 AM
 #43641

I predict monsanto makes a run at 210 shortly.

Where's muh 210? 


 Come On, Man!  That next zero is waaaay overdue!  Surely at least we can hold above 200 for a while. or forever.
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June 05, 2022, 07:51:39 AM
 #43642

I predict monsanto makes a run at 210 shortly.

Where's muh 210? 


 Come On, Man!  That next zero is waaaay overdue!  Surely at least we can hold above 200 for a while. or forever.
Perhaps "shortly" was a bad word choice. But I do mean soon.  In the meantime we hang in the balance of bitcoin's existential dread.
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June 09, 2022, 07:41:29 AM
 #43643

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 46) IS OUT NOW! Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-46?sd=pf

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June 11, 2022, 09:53:42 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #43644

I predict monsanto makes a run at 210 shortly.

Where's muh 210? 


 Come On, Man!  That next zero is waaaay overdue!  Surely at least we can hold above 200 for a while. or forever.


Perhaps "shortly" was a bad word choice. But I do mean soon.  In the meantime we hang in the balance of bitcoin's existential dread.

It's looking more like mid winter to me now. Maybe next year.
 No time to spend on it anyway.  I had WAY more free time when I had a job. Now its just endless unpaid work  Tongue
Not complaining, I'm living the dream
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June 12, 2022, 12:26:53 AM
 #43645

I predict monsanto makes a run at 210 shortly.

Where's muh 210? 


 Come On, Man!  That next zero is waaaay overdue!  Surely at least we can hold above 200 for a while. or forever.


Perhaps "shortly" was a bad word choice. But I do mean soon.  In the meantime we hang in the balance of bitcoin's existential dread.

It's looking more like mid winter to me now. Maybe next year.
 No time to spend on it anyway.  I had WAY more free time when I had a job. Now its just endless unpaid work  Tongue
Not complaining, I'm living the dream

I know these feels
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June 12, 2022, 04:28:47 PM
 #43646

I predict monsanto makes a run at 210 shortly.

Where's muh 210? 


 Come On, Man!  That next zero is waaaay overdue!  Surely at least we can hold above 200 for a while. or forever.


Perhaps "shortly" was a bad word choice. But I do mean soon.  In the meantime we hang in the balance of bitcoin's existential dread.

It's looking more like mid winter to me now. Maybe next year.
 No time to spend on it anyway.  I had WAY more free time when I had a job. Now its just endless unpaid work  Tongue
Not complaining, I'm living the dream

I know these feels

Me too.  When will I ever learn that coming in here are posting "Guys!! I know it!  We are going over XXXXX soon!"  always causes a dump.  Embarrassed
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June 13, 2022, 01:10:30 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1), smooth (1), explorer (1)
 #43647

ArticMine PMed me after I wrote that flaming post, and said he would reply after studying my posts. He has not yet replied. Does that mean I am correct and there is no solution for Monero. I think so.

It is fundamental. Afaics, you'd have to completely rewrite Moaneuro. Tongue

Rewrite Monero, is not necessary at all but some documentation on how the Cryptonote adaptive blocksize limits actually work is needed, especially given the formula in section 6.2.3 of the Cryptonote Whitepaper is wrong. https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf. My response will come in time.

I will start by examining the Cryptonote Penalty Function for oversize blocks. This is critical to understand any form of spam attack against a Cryptonote coin. From the Cryptonote whitepaper I cited above the penalty function is:

Penalty = BaseReward (BlkSize / MN - 1)2

The new reward is:

NewReward = BaseReward - Penalty

Where MN is the median of the blocksize over the last N blocks
BlkSize is the size of the current block
BaseReward is the reward as per the emission curve or where applicable the tail emission
NewReward is the actual reward paid to the miner
The Maximum allowed blocksize, BlkSize, is 2MN
The penalty is only applied when BlkSize > (1 + Bmin) MN Where 0 < Bmin < 1 In the Cryptonote whitepaper Bmin = 0.1.
 
The error in the Cryptonote Whitepaper was to set NewReward = Penalty

For simplicity I will define:
BlkSize = (1+B) MN
BaseReward = Rbase
Penalty (for a given B) = PB
NewReward (for a given B) = RB

The penalty for a given B becomes:
PB = RbaseB2
While the new reward for a given B becomes:
RB = Rbase(1 - B2)
The first derivative of PB with respect to B is
dPB / dB = 2RbaseB

In order to attack the coin by bloating the blocksize the attacker needs to cause at least over 50% of the miners to mine oversize blocks and for an expedient attack close to 100% or the miners to mine oversize blocks. This attack must be a maintained over a sustained period of time and more importantly must be maintained in order to keep the oversized blocks, since once the attack stops the blocks will fall back to their normal size.  There are essentially two options here:

1) A 51% attack. I am not going to pursue this for obvious reasons.

2) Induce the existing miners to mine oversize blocks. This is actually the more interesting case; however after cost analysis it becomes effectively a rental version of 1 above. Since the rate of change (first derivative) of PB is proportional to B the most effective option for the attacker is to run the attack with B = 1. The cost of the attack has as a lower bound Rbase but would be higher, and proportional to, Rbase  because miners will demand a substantial premium over the base reward to mine the spam blocks due to the increased risk of orphan blocks as the blocksize increases and competition from legitimate users whose cost per KB for transaction fees needed to compete with the attacker will fall as the blocksize increases. The impact on the coin is to stop new coins from being created while the attack is going on. These coins are replaced by the attacker having to buy coins on the open market in order to continue the attack. The impact of this is to further increase the costs to the attacker.

It at this point where we see the critical importance of a tail emission since if Rbase = 0 this attack has zero cost and the tragedy of the commons actually occurs. This is the critical difference between those Cryptonote coins that have a tail emission, and have solved the problem, such as Monero and those that do not, and will in a matter of time become vulnerable, such as Bytecoin.

Edit June 12, 2022 02:37:35: PM Previous edit January 18, 2016, 05:45:13 AM

This edit is after the start of the tail emission so Rbase = 0.6 XMR, and over six years since the original post. I wish to note the following:

We add a transaction of size TT to a block at a point B in the penalty, and define BT = TT / MN; the new penalty becomes Rbase(B+BT)2. The difference between the old and the new penalty is then Rbase(2BBT + BT2)

a) The cost of the attack in 2 above with B = 1, which was later called "The Big Bang" attack can be shown to have a lower bound of 4Rbase by analyzing the game theory of the Monero fee market. The only assumption that is needed is a free market of miners and users acting in their enlightened self interest. To understand this fee market one needs to consider a mining adding transactions to a block. The miner adds transactions in the order of the fee per byte (this is actually a very good approximation, where the BT << B, to the discrete optimization problem). The miner will then stop given one of the following:

1) The miner runs out of transactions  
2) The additional penalty to add a transaction is greater than the fee paid by the transaction
3) B = 1 (There is no more space in the block)

The key to the game theory is that: The last transaction added to the block has paid the lowest fee, and this fee corresponds to the highest additional penalty paid to add a transaction to the block One can then place a lower bound on the cost of a Big Bang attack per block at B =  1 as 4Rbase. Rbase goes to feed the penalty compensating the miners for an effective coin burn, while 3Rbase goes to the miners who profit at the expense of the attacker. The original wording gives the impression that the cost per block to the attacker is only Rbase. This latter cost per block is actually the additional cost per block for a Big Bank attack as an add on to a 51% attack as in 1 above.

b) The analysis in a) above does not take in to account the additional cost and delay to a Big Bang attacker as a result of Long Term Median that was added starting in 2019

c) The additional cost to a Big Bang attacker due to orphan block refers to, Peter R. Rizun, A Transaction Fee Market Exists Without a Block Size Limit, August 2015 https://www.bitcoinunlimited.info/resources/feemarket.pdf. This leads to an additional effective penalty. that is exponential in the blocksize and proportional to the block reward. This is of course subject to the assumptions in the paper.
 

Quoted for update.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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June 13, 2022, 03:07:57 PM
 #43648

Wow... ETH is getting destroyed.

And XMR is tracking with BTC.  Going UP just a little against BTC.  As far as the altpocalypse goes Monero is fairing better than most.



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June 14, 2022, 05:58:55 PM
 #43649

Wow... ETH is getting destroyed.

And XMR is tracking with BTC.  Going UP just a little against BTC.  As far as the altpocalypse goes Monero is fairing better than most.





I don't know why, but it makes me smile to see ETH crashing  Grin

   XMR going down with BTC seems like old news; nothing to see here, come back next year.  I'm sad to say I have hardly transacted with XMR since the demise of XMR.TO.  I've been away from crypto in general this year, living off grid in the mountains. I don't miss the computer or people or the rat race much at all (and now with Starlink I'm a bit connected again).  Call me when I can buy a new excavator for a handful of XMR  Tongue
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June 14, 2022, 07:44:05 PM
 #43650


I don't know why, but it makes me smile to see ETH crashing  Grin

   XMR going down with BTC seems like old news; nothing to see here, come back next year.  I'm sad to say I have hardly transacted with XMR since the demise of XMR.TO.  I've been away from crypto in general this year, living off grid in the mountains. I don't miss the computer or people or the rat race much at all (and now with Starlink I'm a bit connected again).  Call me when I can buy a new excavator for a handful of XMR  Tongue

I know why... It is because ETH is by far the single biggest attack on Bitcoin from the beginning of all time.  And will continue to be... with the POS change being the next campaign. 

It's also why I tend to hate the recent anti-bitcoin narrative in the XMR camp.  We are basically using the same kinds of arguments that are used to support the shittiest of shitcoins (which really is ETH). Wink
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June 15, 2022, 11:18:50 AM
 #43651


I don't know why, but it makes me smile to see ETH crashing  Grin

   XMR going down with BTC seems like old news; nothing to see here, come back next year.  I'm sad to say I have hardly transacted with XMR since the demise of XMR.TO.  I've been away from crypto in general this year, living off grid in the mountains. I don't miss the computer or people or the rat race much at all (and now with Starlink I'm a bit connected again).  Call me when I can buy a new excavator for a handful of XMR  Tongue

I know why... It is because ETH is by far the single biggest attack on Bitcoin from the beginning of all time.  And will continue to be... with the POS change being the next campaign. 

It's also why I tend to hate the recent anti-bitcoin narrative in the XMR camp.  We are basically using the same kinds of arguments that are used to support the shittiest of shitcoins (which really is ETH). Wink
I also don't like the way the Monero community attacks other projects like zCash and 0xMonero. If your crypto is so much better than you shouldn't have to slander other projects, the tech will speak for itself. The Monero community is one of the most hateful and malicious in the industry from what I've seen.
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June 15, 2022, 11:51:50 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #43652


I don't know why, but it makes me smile to see ETH crashing  Grin

   XMR going down with BTC seems like old news; nothing to see here, come back next year.  I'm sad to say I have hardly transacted with XMR since the demise of XMR.TO.  I've been away from crypto in general this year, living off grid in the mountains. I don't miss the computer or people or the rat race much at all (and now with Starlink I'm a bit connected again).  Call me when I can buy a new excavator for a handful of XMR  Tongue

I know why... It is because ETH is by far the single biggest attack on Bitcoin from the beginning of all time.  And will continue to be... with the POS change being the next campaign. 

It's also why I tend to hate the recent anti-bitcoin narrative in the XMR camp.  We are basically using the same kinds of arguments that are used to support the shittiest of shitcoins (which really is ETH). Wink
I also don't like the way the Monero community attacks other projects like zCash and 0xMonero. If your crypto is so much better than you shouldn't have to slander other projects, the tech will speak for itself. The Monero community is one of the most hateful and malicious in the industry from what I've seen.

Now that is way over the top.  First of all...  there is a big difference between saying Monero is better than Bitcoin, than saying Monero is better than pre mined, dev taxed, trusted setup, corporate NSA backdoored shitcoins. Wink

And I personally think the Monero community is one of the most well rounded, mature, introspective "crypto" communities out there...
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June 15, 2022, 01:40:05 PM
 #43653


I don't know why, but it makes me smile to see ETH crashing  Grin

   XMR going down with BTC seems like old news; nothing to see here, come back next year.  I'm sad to say I have hardly transacted with XMR since the demise of XMR.TO.  I've been away from crypto in general this year, living off grid in the mountains. I don't miss the computer or people or the rat race much at all (and now with Starlink I'm a bit connected again).  Call me when I can buy a new excavator for a handful of XMR  Tongue

I know why... It is because ETH is by far the single biggest attack on Bitcoin from the beginning of all time.  And will continue to be... with the POS change being the next campaign.  

It's also why I tend to hate the recent anti-bitcoin narrative in the XMR camp.  We are basically using the same kinds of arguments that are used to support the shittiest of shitcoins (which really is ETH). Wink

What makes you think ETH's switch to proof of stake is an attack vs BTC?  The switch was always in their roadmap since the project started.  And it's even laughed at because the merge has been delayed for years and now it's coming everybody seems to feel threatened.  Just leave them alone and let them do their thing.  If the merge happens without imploding ETH then great if not, oh well.  No need for all the hate.  They're building the biggest blockchain casino the world has ever seen.  We should appreciate it.  The world would be a boring place without Ethereum.

R


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June 24, 2022, 06:12:49 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #43654

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 47) IS OUT NOW! Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-47?sd=pf
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June 30, 2022, 07:57:55 AM
 #43655

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 48) IS OUT NOW! Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-48?sd=pf
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July 05, 2022, 12:48:54 PM
 #43656

I sold my Monero for 0xMonero around the time that Fluffy Pedo was arrested the first time. I'm done with Monero. Think about it. They are putting in a South African prison, one of the most dangerous ones in the world. Don't you think that he would tell the authorities how to track transactions and who the team members are etc. to get a lighter sentence? I'm certain he would. The entire chain is compromised now.
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July 05, 2022, 07:13:47 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1), kurious (1)
 #43657

I sold my Monero for 0xMonero around the time that Fluffy Pedo was arrested the first time. I'm done with Monero. Think about it. They are putting in a South African prison, one of the most dangerous ones in the world. Don't you think that he would tell the authorities how to track transactions and who the team members are etc. to get a lighter sentence? I'm certain he would. The entire chain is compromised now.

The only thing I think about when reading your posts is how your Mom raised such a Retard.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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July 06, 2022, 11:48:22 AM
 #43658

I sold my Monero for 0xMonero around the time that Fluffy Pedo was arrested the first time. I'm done with Monero. Think about it. They are putting in a South African prison, one of the most dangerous ones in the world. Don't you think that he would tell the authorities how to track transactions and who the team members are etc. to get a lighter sentence? I'm certain he would. The entire chain is compromised now.

The only thing I think about when reading your posts is how your Mom raised such a Retard.
Nice rebuttal
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July 06, 2022, 12:55:17 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #43659

I sold my Monero for 0xMonero around the time that Fluffy Pedo was arrested the first time. I'm done with Monero. Think about it. They are putting in a South African prison, one of the most dangerous ones in the world. Don't you think that he would tell the authorities how to track transactions and who the team members are etc. to get a lighter sentence? I'm certain he would. The entire chain is compromised now.

All of this is foolishness.  Monero is not Ricardo Spagni.  I cannot speculate on what is happening to him, or if he is guilty or innocent.  But he cannot tell anyone how to track transactions.  People way smarter than him have been working on that forever.  The source code is public.

0xMonero?  Lol.  Tradeogre does not even have a market for that... you might as well just throw away your keys.
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July 06, 2022, 06:14:52 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)
 #43660

I sold my Monero for 0xMonero around the time that Fluffy Pedo was arrested the first time. I'm done with Monero. Think about it. They are putting in a South African prison, one of the most dangerous ones in the world. Don't you think that he would tell the authorities how to track transactions and who the team members are etc. to get a lighter sentence? I'm certain he would. The entire chain is compromised now.

All of this is foolishness.  Monero is not Ricardo Spagni.  I cannot speculate on what is happening to him, or if he is guilty or innocent.  But he cannot tell anyone how to track transactions.  People way smarter than him have been working on that forever.  The source code is public.

0xMonero?  Lol.  Tradeogre does not even have a market for that... you might as well just throw away your keys.

Nice, I didn't feel he deserved the effort of this answer. LOL

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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