[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

I predict monsanto makes a run at 210 shortly.

Just saying.  I am not going to be wrong about this.  It is all in how you define "shortly"!

I still don't check the price vs USD, still waiting to get back to .03, USD is Ded to me.

Yeah...  that is the gold standard for sure.  I like them both, as I think they are both interesting.  And also like a slingshot in the case of Monero.  Something very interesting is about to happen in Monero I think.  We seem to be breaking out of a ginourmous symmetrical triangle in XMR/BTC *and* the 20week MA and 100 week MA are about to cross which has not happened since ~2017 before it went to .03.  The narrative for Monero right now is stronger than it ever has been as well as the fundamentals AND technicals.

So... you might get your wish of getting back to or even exceeding .03.  With Bitcoin near the 2017 highs that ALSO means we do not have to sent XMR prices to astronomically new heights in USD to pull this off, which I think will make it easier since so many watch that pair.  THEN *if* Bitcoin can regain it's footing we should see it drag monero/usd up as well, or if it does not then we will see xmr/btc go up more... win/win.

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[jwinterm]

Me visualizing XMR at 0.03 and BTC at $100k

[cAPSLOCK]

Me visualizing XMR at 0.03 and BTC at $100k

Yeah... almost a 25x on Moreno is pretty juicy.  And I believe the high end of the possibility spectrum.

I think a .02 Monero and a 50k BTC is more likely... so there.

[Hueristic]

I haven't sold anything (except a .01 BTC in 2018 to test paxos) since 2017 and If those numbers hit I will be taking some profits and moving to a more tropical climate.

[cAPSLOCK]

I haven't sold anything (except a .01 BTC in 2018 to test paxos) since 2017 and If those numbers hit I will be taking some profits and moving to a more tropical climate.

Hold tight.

If... IF...  IF

---Bitcoin is going to keep going... There is no way it stays as 20k.
---Bitcoin continues to drag it's ass on privacy integration.
---Monero will continue to lead that "crypto" sector indefinitely.

2.5x Bitcoin?  And 3x XMR/BTC...  not really all that aggressive a prophesy, right?

I hope you will invite me to your tropical paradise.

[Hueristic]

I hope you will invite me to your tropical paradise.

You have a standing invite when and if we get there.

[cAPSLOCK]

I hope you will invite me to your tropical paradise.

You have a standing invite when and if we get there.

You're just going to take all my corn (and cornero) at the poker table... But I will gladly come!

Another tidbit... I do not usually go "fractal..."  but have you seen the one cooking?

[explorer]

I hope you will invite me to your tropical paradise.

You have a standing invite when and if we get there.

You're just going to take all my corn (and cornero) at the poker table... But I will gladly come!

Another tidbit... I do not usually go "fractal..."  but have you seen the one cooking?

Looks good.  Where do I sign up?  I've got my eye on some new heavy equipment 

[LennyCarl]

dang back-to-back johnfoss posts don't know if he is cranking them out or shitcointalk really ded lol

[Hueristic]

dang back-to-back johnfoss posts don't know if he is cranking them out or shitcointalk really ded lol

Long time no hear, glad to see your still around.

[RussianEnglishTranslation]

I hope you will invite me to your tropical paradise.

You have a standing invite when and if we get there.

You're just going to take all my corn (and cornero) at the poker table... But I will gladly come!

Another tidbit... I do not usually go "fractal..."  but have you seen the one cooking?

I hope Monero and 0xMonero do well but that chart, that's pure hopium.

[dragonvslinux]

I hope you will invite me to your tropical paradise.

You have a standing invite when and if we get there.

You're just going to take all my corn (and cornero) at the poker table... But I will gladly come!

Another tidbit... I do not usually go "fractal..."  but have you seen the one cooking?

it's an interesting fractal, can't deny that. I'm very dubious about this break-out of 4.5 year long resistance trend-line. It's bullish, I can't deny that, but price is strolling into resistance here:



Volume point of control from past 6.5 years is 0.0076 BTC. 200 WMA is at 0.00775 BTC. While usually I'd say breaking a macro resistance trend-line this long is unconditionally bullish, it's clearly not when the 200 WMA continues to trend downwards (macro bearish) and price is entering a long-term accumulation/distribution level, even longer-term than that trend-line. 6 years worth of buyers may well appear as sellers here.

I'd argue that long-term, anything below 0.009 BTC is a very risky trade. Sure price could return to it's highs, which would be about +350% from here, but even from 0.009 this is still 300% to ATH. More likely price get's rejected from around 0.012 to 0.013 BTC imo, where there is resistance (due to being previous support). Probably by next year price will be back to it's BTC lows, or lower, with Bitcoin outperforming.

Also bear in mind the crypto sentiment. We're in a bear market, Bitcoin's market dominance is still consolidating (at the lows). Bitcoin usually recovers first (and further) prior to altcoins, even if altcoins initially rally further first, as XMR, ETH and others have been doing already. The tide remains bearish against altcoins, at least in comparison to Bitcoin. It'd be like trying to ride a wave against this tide.

[cAPSLOCK]

I hope you will invite me to your tropical paradise.

You have a standing invite when and if we get there.

You're just going to take all my corn (and cornero) at the poker table... But I will gladly come!

Another tidbit... I do not usually go "fractal..."  but have you seen the one cooking?

it's an interesting fractal, can't deny that. I'm very dubious about this break-out of 4.5 year long resistance trend-line. It's bullish, I can't deny that, but price is strolling into resistance here:



Volume point of control from past 6.5 years is 0.0076 BTC. 200 WMA is at 0.00775 BTC. While usually I'd say breaking a macro resistance trend-line this long is unconditionally bullish, it's clearly not when the 200 WMA continues to trend downwards (macro bearish) and price is entering a long-term accumulation/distribution level, even longer-term than that trend-line. 6 years worth of buyers may well appear as sellers here.

I'd argue that long-term, anything below 0.009 BTC is a very risky trade. Sure price could return to it's highs, which would be about +350% from here, but even from 0.009 this is still 300% to ATH. More likely price get's rejected from around 0.012 to 0.013 BTC imo, where there is resistance (due to being previous support). Probably by next year price will be back to it's BTC lows, or lower, with Bitcoin outperforming.

Also bear in mind the crypto sentiment. We're in a bear market, Bitcoin's market dominance is still consolidating (at the lows). Bitcoin usually recovers first (and further) prior to altcoins, even if altcoins initially rally further first, as XMR, ETH and others have been doing already. The tide remains bearish against altcoins, at least in comparison to Bitcoin. It'd be like trying to ride a wave against this tide.

Agree... I should have qualified.  That fractal post was a lark.  I would be surprised if it played out.  And there are HUGE hurdles on the XMR/BTC chart.  One interesting thing about Monero, though is it actually is doing a few things quite notable in the fundamental realm.  This article is quite interesting (and hyper bullish):

https://moneroj.net/view_article/A-deep-dive-into-Monero-metrics

The two things I find interesting are:

1.  The transaction volume.  It's organic, increasing, and a respectable percentage of Bitcoin's at this point (~20% now I think?).
2.  The chatter.  There is a strong growing sort of groundswell of Monero chatter on social media.  A little too much "maxi hate/bcash type sentiment" for my tastes... but still growing.

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 52) IS OUT NOW! It covers all the latest Monero news throughout the past week in a curated fashion. Developments, tech, events, memes, general news, speculation, etc and more!

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-52

Also, The XMR/BTC 20 week SMA has just crossed over the 100 week SMA!

The last time Monero's 20 week SMA crossed over the 100 week SMA was May 2016, sparking the beginning of the biggest bullrun XMR has ever seen!

[explorer]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 52) IS OUT NOW! It covers all the latest Monero news throughout the past week in a curated fashion. Developments, tech, events, memes, general news, speculation, etc and more!

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-52

Also, The XMR/BTC 20 week SMA has just crossed over the 100 week SMA!

The last time Monero's 20 week SMA crossed over the 100 week SMA was May 2016, sparking the beginning of the biggest bullrun XMR has ever seen!

    Nice spot!  I haven't looked at the weekly in forever.  That brings back some strong memories.  I have been watching the transaction count regularly for the last couple years though, and being on the cusp of 1000000 tx this month is pretty big news.


                        XMR        BTC
Jul 2022 (est) 996,175     7,705,017  12.93%

[jwinterm]

Speaking of tx count, it is nice to see it growing, apparently "organically", over the course of months and months, however, at current fee rates there is only about $500 worth of XMR paid out to miners each day in fees. I think after the upcoming hardfork that number should increase by a factor of 10x (?), so it will be interesting to see if tx growth continues to build (imo indicating real organic usage) or if it falls off (which may indicate someone was paying the fees to spam the chain either for chain analysis reasons or to simulate organic usage and pump price).

[phishead]

Speaking of tx count, it is nice to see it growing, apparently "organically", over the course of months and months, however, at current fee rates there is only about $500 worth of XMR paid out to miners each day in fees. I think after the upcoming hardfork that number should increase by a factor of 10x (?), so it will be interesting to see if tx growth continues to build (imo indicating real organic usage) or if it falls off (which may indicate someone was paying the fees to spam the chain either for chain analysis reasons or to simulate organic usage and pump price).

Wait, what happens with the hardfork and mining fees again?

[explorer]

Speaking of tx count, it is nice to see it growing, apparently "organically", over the course of months and months, however, at current fee rates there is only about $500 worth of XMR paid out to miners each day in fees. I think after the upcoming hardfork that number should increase by a factor of 10x (?), so it will be interesting to see if tx growth continues to build (imo indicating real organic usage) or if it falls off (which may indicate someone was paying the fees to spam the chain either for chain analysis reasons or to simulate organic usage and pump price).

Wait, what happens with the hardfork and mining fees again?

   ...and when?

[Hueristic]

Wait, what happens with the hardfork and mining fees again?

I believe this covers it.

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ArticMine/Monero-Documents/master/MoneroScaling2021-02.pdf

   ...and when?

 August 13

[LennyCarl]

Wanting to help with the transaction count  , I played the monero pot raffle. And I actually won for July! lol

0.428 XMR is a couple confirmations away from being all mine! HA! Of course, it is one of the lowest payouts since this thing started but oh well.

So yeah, this is a legit fun way to "bet" roughly $2.50 or in my case 0.01596 XMR.

You guys should try it for August. https://moneropot.org/

P.S. Hey Hueristic!