[~1000 GH/sec] BTC Guild - 0% Fee Pool, LP, SSL, Full Precision, and More

[fcmatt]

ow... a 4 hour block after i came back. i should have just went to bed.
but it seems like we are doing well after that.

even slush's pool has monster 3-4 hour blocks so what is happening to us is nothing
unusual.

i have a feeling we will do well in the next 12 hours. we are due again.

thank you kr05!

[Xephan]

ow... a 4 hour block after i came back. i should have just went to bed.
but it seems like we are doing well after that.

even slush's pool has monster 3-4 hour blocks so what is happening to us is nothing
unusual.

i have a feeling we will do well in the next 12 hours. we are due again.

thank you kr05!

Didn't meet my 0.3x 24hr average mark so you won't be getting that 0.03x from me

But 10% of my vastly improved 24hr average is still on their way to you

[fcmatt]

ow... a 4 hour block after i came back. i should have just went to bed.
but it seems like we are doing well after that.

even slush's pool has monster 3-4 hour blocks so what is happening to us is nothing
unusual.

i have a feeling we will do well in the next 12 hours. we are due again.

thank you kr05!

Didn't meet my 0.3x 24hr average mark so you won't be getting that 0.03x from me

But 10% of my vastly improved 24hr average is still on their way to you

if it was not for the easy way to view my workers progress on the website i would not even view
the block stats so much. it can drive a person crazy looking at it so often. we need this long block
solved soon!

[dyngnosis]

It's true... I've only been mining for 24hrs and I think I've updated the page once every ten minutes but would also have ten minute stretches just clicking back and forth between my account and block stats.

Anyone see Middle Men (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1251757/)? 

I wrote a quick python script to monitor the API and play this every time we find a block (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfkcI8dhfsQ)... it sends it wirelessly to 3 sets of air-foil speakers around the house.  GF is NOT impressed... (for testing I had it trigger on ever share hehehe)

Cheers!

[Xephan]

It's true... I've only been mining for 24hrs and I think I've updated the page once every ten minutes but would also have ten minute stretches just clicking back and forth between my account and block stats.

Anyone see Middle Men (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1251757/)? 

I wrote a quick python script to monitor the API and play this every time we find a block (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfkcI8dhfsQ)... it sends it wirelessly to 3 sets of air-foil speakers around the house.  GF is NOT impressed... (for testing I had it trigger on ever share hehehe)

Cheers!

ROFL! I like that!

[dyngnosis]

Totally needs an enhancement, this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yysnM407rjE will be added for every 1.0 bitcoins earned.

[BitMinerN8]

Fixed an error in the graphs which caused pool/user speeds to be a little erratic when a long block ended shortly after a new day began.  The old system averaged speeds using the following:

Shares in completed blocks during that day, divided into a full 24 hour day.  Since it only looked at completed blocks, if a long block ended at 12:01 AM, the previous day was being calculated with a large chunk of time/shares missing, and the next day had that large chunk of shares included.

New graphs divided it by the number of seconds between the start of the first block and end of the last block in that 24 hour period, providing a much more accurate estimate of pool speed/user speeds for the day.

Another suggestion for the Graphs, add 7 day rolling average. IMHO this would help you get a better feel for how you are doing, the bigger picture so to speak with respect to luck. Thanks again for all your time and dedication to enhancing this pool. The super servers seem to be running great.

[jjiimm_64]

ow... a 4 hour block after i came back. i should have just went to bed.
but it seems like we are doing well after that.

even slush's pool has monster 3-4 hour blocks so what is happening to us is nothing
unusual.

i have a feeling we will do well in the next 12 hours. we are due again.

thank you kr05!

I think it is time for you to go again    we are in a 3+ hour block

[gnaget]

ow... a 4 hour block after i came back. i should have just went to bed.
but it seems like we are doing well after that.

even slush's pool has monster 3-4 hour blocks so what is happening to us is nothing
unusual.

i have a feeling we will do well in the next 12 hours. we are due again.

thank you kr05!

I think it is time for you to go again    we are in a 3+ hour block

Agreed, I'll donate another .0420 BTC

[fcmatt]

ok. i am off btcguild. been off for several minutes now. let the good times roll.

hilarious how if i would have stayed on deepbit last night i would have had some very good luck...
but i ended up moving back to bad luck. wtf.

[jjiimm_64]

ok. i am off btcguild. been off for several minutes now. let the good times roll.

hilarious how if i would have stayed on deepbit last night i would have had some very good luck...
but i ended up moving back to bad luck. wtf.

if we get another string of good luck because of this,  I will send some more to you later.

edit: 1 hour later..  ok didn't work yet. did you move all or just some of your workers over

[gnaget]

ok. i am off btcguild. been off for several minutes now. let the good times roll.

hilarious how if i would have stayed on deepbit last night i would have had some very good luck...
but i ended up moving back to bad luck. wtf.

I'll send your btc as soon as I confirm you are gone by our luck increasing

[gnaget]

Not to throw in a conspiracy theory, but I have been questioning btcguild's honestly as of late...

The "luck" of btcguild has been:
Luck this difficulty (1690906)       1937899 shares   (-12.7%) (weighted down 54% since in progress = -6.9%)
Luck at difficulty 1563027       1690231 shares   (-7.5%)
Luck at difficulty 1379223       1384144 shares   (-0.4%)
Luck at difficulty 876954       875473 shares   (+0.2%)

Given the hashrate > 2 Th/s, being consistently low on luck makes me think something is up.  I understand probability, and the fact that there are up days and down days, but this shows a 2 month average of -5.4%.  This should be extremely unlikely, and makes me wonder if BTC Guild isn't holding back a good percent.  Any math majors out there want to calculate the probability?

[hugolp]

Not to throw in a conspiracy theory, but I have been questioning btcguild's honestly as of late...

The "luck" of btcguild has been:
Luck this difficulty (1690906)       1937899 shares   (-12.7%) (weighted down 54% since in progress = -6.9%)
Luck at difficulty 1563027       1690231 shares   (-7.5%)
Luck at difficulty 1379223       1384144 shares   (-0.4%)
Luck at difficulty 876954       875473 shares   (+0.2%)

Given the hashrate > 2 Th/s, being consistently low on luck makes me think something is up.  I understand probability, and the fact that there are up days and down days, but this shows a 2 month average of -5.4%.  This should be extremely unlikely, and makes me wonder if BTC Guild isn't holding back a good percent.  Any math majors out there want to calculate the probability?

I think the -7.5% is not real because it includes the DDOS attack time.

I actually suspect that sometimes something happens during the server changes because we always seem to get bad luck when one occurs, but I dont suspect eulethria honesty (hopefully I wont have to eat my words).

[fcmatt]

here is deepbit's history of luck

1469910 + 6.6%
849607   - 3.1%
607153   + 7.0%
434883   - 7.3%
244140   + 1.4%
157426   - 3.4%
109670   + 4.2%
92348   + 11.3%
82347   - 16.6%
68979   - 1.2%
76194   - 5.0%
55590   + 5.7%

[sirky]

Not to throw in a conspiracy theory, but I have been questioning btcguild's honestly as of late...

The "luck" of btcguild has been:
Luck this difficulty (1690906)       1937899 shares   (-12.7%) (weighted down 54% since in progress = -6.9%)
Luck at difficulty 1563027       1690231 shares   (-7.5%)
Luck at difficulty 1379223       1384144 shares   (-0.4%)
Luck at difficulty 876954       875473 shares   (+0.2%)

Given the hashrate > 2 Th/s, being consistently low on luck makes me think something is up.  I understand probability, and the fact that there are up days and down days, but this shows a 2 month average of -5.4%.  This should be extremely unlikely, and makes me wonder if BTC Guild isn't holding back a good percent.  Any math majors out there want to calculate the probability?

I think the -7.5% is not real because it includes the DDOS attack time.

I actually suspect that sometimes something happens during the server changes because we always seem to get bad luck when one occurs, but I dont suspect eulethria honesty (hopefully I wont have to eat my words).

The bad luck should be independent of DDOS because no shares are submitted during that time.

We've just been unlucky.

[hugolp]

The bad luck should be independent of DDOS because no shares are submitted during that time.

We've just been unlucky.

Im sure Eleuthria will be able to expain it better, but after the DDOS the luck went down a lot. I always supposed it was because of some artifcat in the statistics because of the DDOS. Maybe I was wrong.

[eleuthria]

The bad luck should be independent of DDOS because no shares are submitted during that time.

We've just been unlucky.

Im sure Eleuthria will be able to expain it better, but after the DDOS the luck went down a lot. I always supposed it was because of some artifcat in the statistics because of the DDOS. Maybe I was wrong.

Our luck dived after the DDoS for two reasons, neither of which were related to DDoS directly.

There was significant server scaling issues in the end of June/early July.  Pushpools were crashing in the background and were sending getworks that had already been processed by somebody else before the crash.  On top of that the DDoS was causing us to be working on invalid block chains, which is why we had a lot more invalids than normal around blocks 1400-1600.  

On top of all that, new dev patches for bitcoind to help the servers scale were causing other problems.

Since the DDoS ended the stability problems have vanished, now planned downtime only takes a server off for a minute or two, and we haven't had any downtime related to an unexpected crash in almost 2 weeks (since US West was "finalized").

[eleuthria]

Not to throw in a conspiracy theory, but I have been questioning btcguild's honestly as of late...

The "luck" of btcguild has been:
Luck this difficulty (1690906)       1937899 shares   (-12.7%) (weighted down 54% since in progress = -6.9%)
Luck at difficulty 1563027       1690231 shares   (-7.5%)
Luck at difficulty 1379223       1384144 shares   (-0.4%)
Luck at difficulty 876954       875473 shares   (+0.2%)

Given the hashrate > 2 Th/s, being consistently low on luck makes me think something is up.  I understand probability, and the fact that there are up days and down days, but this shows a 2 month average of -5.4%.  This should be extremely unlikely, and makes me wonder if BTC Guild isn't holding back a good percent.  Any math majors out there want to calculate the probability?

If you think -7.5% and our current difficulty luck is suspicious, I'd recommend you stay quiet if anybody ever asks your opinion on probability and statistics.  Everybody is quick to jump to conclusions when luck is negative.

I don't see anybody saying "I think he's adding fake blocks to make us happy" when Deepbit has had 12% positive luck during this difficulty while being MORE THAN TWICE our size, considering according to your post you think that having 2.0-2.4 Th/s should make such a huge luck (positive or negative)  should be "extremely unlikely.", which would infer having 5.1 TH/s should make it even more "extremely unlikely."

[gnaget]

If you think -7.5% and our current difficulty luck is suspicious, I'd recommend you stay quiet if anybody ever asks your opinion on probability and statistics.  Everybody is quick to jump to conclusions when luck is negative.

I don't see anybody saying "I think he's adding fake blocks to make us happy" when Deepbit has had 12% positive luck during this difficulty while being MORE THAN TWICE our size, considering according to your post you think that having 2.0-2.4 Th/s should make such a huge luck (positive or negative)  should be "extremely unlikely.", which would infer having 5.1 TH/s should make it even more "extremely unlikely."

It isn't our current luck that has me concerned, but our luck going back.  I won't go into details because I don't want it to be implemented, but there is one specific way to cheat that would be very easy to pull off.  It would be nearly undetectable and the only symptom would be bad luck.  The problem is, going back 2 months there has been constant bad luck, not some up some down. 

I'm questioning, but not accusing you.  I don't know you, and I have come to realize that a lot of people in bitcoins are inherently dishonest.  Unfortunately, there is really no way for the miners to act as a check on the pool, so we have to make these judgements.