A few observations:
The need for a long post implies that there is far more bad news to come. A long post explaining what we already know wouldn't be necessary.
The fact that posting by Bitcoinica Consultancy is being "limited" by some other party (presumably the owner, and presumably the person who's footing the bill) implies that the other party is expecting legal trouble and wants the minimum amount of evidence to be released. A post that says "we're starting paybacks next Tuesday" would not need to be limited.
Expectation of legal trouble implies that at least some portion of deposits are not going to be returned.
Combining the above implies that the claim form was a stalling tactic. There is no claims process; or the claims process has been stopped. This doesn't surprise me -- as I said way back in this thread, the claims form didn't prove identity and wasn't secure; neither of which are problems for a fake claim form.
We already know that 20% of held coins where in the stolen wallet. That means 80% (at most) are available for return. The "bad news" could quite easily be that no funds are available to replace those stolen 20% and we are all going to have to accept 80% of net value (at best).
If we can believe Bitcoinica that all positions were correctly matched, then it really shouldn't matter about open positions -- every loser should be matched by a winner, so the payout could be made based on any price you like (the best being the current price of course).
If Bitcoinica weren't correctly hedging, then the additional "bad news" could be that there weren't even enough funds to cover all open positions before the theft. In which case, considerably less than 80% will be offered.
Given that we know all the servers were deleted, the absolute worst potential "bad news" I can think of is that the cold wallet was being stored on one of the other servers (probably encrypted, so the thief hasn't stolen those coins) and there is no off-site backup. That would mean 20% of the coins were stolen, but 80% were deleted. The only remaining funds would be USD. Let's guess that the two pools were equal (I'm sure they weren't) -- that would mean a 50% payout.
My guess then, is that Bitcoinica and co are desperately seeking legal advice about the best way to break it to us that a significant amount of our money is gone and they cannot afford to pay it back.
Yep. Pretty much what I said on my posts. Take your money out of intersango!
it is not a question of whether they sent a wire last Friday or not like somebody was saying earlier, but whether Bitcoin Consultancy will be able to stay afloat after the lawsuits that are going to undoubtedly begin to fly (and trust me, they won't be able to). As soon as the FSA investigates what they are doing with local bank deposits and withdrawals, they are done. I know at least two BIG PLAYERS that are going to release the legal hounds over this, and as soon as the authorities start to probe for proper licensing, etc. the whole operation will be dismantled, just as the Bitcoin Consultancy website was taken offline to cover their asses legally.
Even if you don't believe Intersango will be in hot waters, and everything will be dandy, can you still trust them with the security of your money?
Like I said, the form is just a stalling tactic while the lawyers prepare a proper defense, and by the way I have good information that Bitcoin Consultancy owns a significant part of Bitcoinica! THEY WERE PAID WITH EQUITY
. Do NOT believe for a second that they are just "hired consultants". Do you really believe they will put the significant amount of work and effort into a competitor's website for a few bucks? OR will be given full access to the system for some bucks? NO FOLKS, they were given a stake on Bitcoinica. The idea was at some point to merge the intersango / Bitcoinica brands under the new Bitcoinica LP to have some sort of proper licensing, since what they are doing in the UK is dubious at best.
Please note also that nothing I have said so far has been refuted by any of the parties involved.
Since apparently the "careful drafting" or a response didn't work, here is a few questions that need answer TODAY:
- WHO owns Bitcoinica (list of all beneficiaries involved with percentages).
- WHO controls the Bitcoinica Consultancy sock puppet, and from whom you need authorization to speak?
- WAS the database erased or not? Are there offline backups?
- WHAT is the date when refunds will begin to be processed (I know this is not going to happen, but I want to hear it).
- MR. CHARLIE SHREM: Earlier you said you are working closely with Bitcoinica to get people paid, and that you know who owns this enterprise. Since you decided to share this with the world, and we are receiving complete silence and stalling tactics from Bitcoinica, I think it is your moral duty to the Bitcoin community to release the information you have at this time.
Waiting for some REAL answers ...