Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

I think there are not enough subwaves in your 1. It is possible to force it but then 4th subwave is very much shorter than 2nd. Can you show how would you subdivide it?
Also there are so clear divergences between my ((iii)) and ((v)) which I can't ignore (EWO, RSI, daily CMO, volume and bid/ask volume ratio). Even though ((v)) is extended.

There are enough subwaves if you say that iii of (iii) of 1 has a blowout v, but i think we are beyond counting the smaller internals of 1 in retrospect of what I think is ii, overly big to be wave iv and nearly 62% of the move. The smaller count might have the same problem with ii being too big, but small gives way to big. I can see the merits of both counts.

If this is wave I of (III) here then the divergence is fine imo because as long as this stays above the trendlione defined by hypothetical wave 1 then the chances are always good that wave 3 is extending.

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[lebing]

Triangle on the hourly.

the line running through it below is the bear trend

[JustAnotherSheep]

Now that we have clearly broken upward out of the down trend I am going to build on the proposition that this is a triangle breakout. It is fair to assume that this is the beginning or midterm of a significant correction of the entire downtrend.

If this is a triangle breakup, at first glance it is going to produce wave C of an ABC towards 2000-3000 yuan. There is another possibility which is a more obscure count, however it could potentially instate the bottoming of the down trend. A WXYXZ combination. Its something Ive only really considered very recently because I really didnt think of it until I began considering the local count was a triangle. It strikes me because a triangle in the form of Z is really the only way this thing could bottom above the penultimate lows.

I think it is neat because we have almost perfect alternation within the triple. W is a flat, Y is a zz, and Z is a triangle (perhaps a bit small in form).

Ill just leave it here for the other EW'ers to talk about. Would be great to have some discussion on this.

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Iv'e said many times that triangles are terminal moves, well in this case it would be terminal in a slightly different sense of the word

So I take it you (and others) don't consider this triangle likely? Or is it a valid possibility? (unsure on the D-wave count, especially from ¥1370 :s)

[chessnut]

So I take it you (and others) don't consider this triangle likely? Or is it a valid possibility? (unsure on the D-wave count, especially from ¥1370 :s)

It had occurred to me before, but Its too wide to be a triangle imo, triangles contract in portions of 62% as a guideline, even when two points are revisited the triangle becomes slanted one way or the other as a consequence. Also, I think we cant ignore the significance of breaking up out of the log down trend, such trend lines are part of the principal. It probably means we are in some bull cycle.

[futureofbitcoin]

chessnut, do you still think that at *some* point in the future, we will see lower lows than we've seen this year, before ultimately going back up?

Or do you think we've reached a floor at ~170-180?

[WhatTheGox]

Or do you think we've reached a floor at ~170-180?

Its a pipe dream to get to that price now imo, would take huge mega bad news else no chance.  Despite technicals everyone wants to buy sub $200 bitcoin.

[Queeq]

If you want uber-trollangle this might be the one. But I seriously doubt it. This is more just for fun count.

[chessnut]

chessnut, do you still think that at *some* point in the future, we will see lower lows than we've seen this year, before ultimately going back up?

Or do you think we've reached a floor at ~170-180?

I think in terms of EW, we have enough evidence to say it's valid that we have bottomed, whereas before there was reasonable doubt that we had finished the cycle. Indeed a lot of price action has unfolded since then to take us out of the log down trend and shed light on the complete count. We dont have evidence to say that we have bottomed long term yet. Imo, given the right evidence here, the chance that a bullish cycle has begun that could take us above $1000 is fair.

[chessnut]

This is bullish corrective form for the time being. It could produce a triple zz.

There's a chance of this, funny how it is a fractal of the entire downtrend that I described. Triple with flat, zz and triangle.



Updated

[RyNinDaCleM]

There's a chance of this, funny how it is a fractal of the entire downtrend that I described. Triple with flat, zz and triangle.

This is only on okc. There is no triangle anywhere else. Just a heads up.

Actually, there is a H&S on BFX which has hit it's target.

[chessnut]

There's a chance of this, funny how it is a fractal of the entire downtrend that I described. Triple with flat, zz and triangle.

This is only on okc. There is no triangle anywhere else. Just a heads up.

Actually, there is a H&S on BFX which has hit it's target.

The others would be a simple flat then I guess.

[chessnut]

It very much seems like the dominant count is playing out well. This is time to be no other than bullish, but in reference to this updated chart there is potential of some downside here in case that we have just finished wave 1 of iii of (iii) (uber bullish). Low 1600's is still very much a possibility in this count.

In a wave iii extension the price can move in a sustained fashion for long periods of time. Note that corrections have been deep up to this point so there is a good chance they will be shallow (and simple) hence forth. A reasonable medium term target for intermediate wave iii would be 1900 yuan, while the complete impulse here should easily breach 2000 yuan and up to the mid 2000's.

[chessnut]

We have rallied off the 62% fib in the mid 1650 as expected in wave ii of any primary wave. While the price still has some freedom within wave ii context this is probably the crux of the move arriving if the count is correct, and I dont see any appealing alternatives. Be prepared for a very bullish move in the coming days that could easily reach 1900.

[TaurusBit]

We have rallied off the 62% fib in the mid 1650 as expected in wave ii of any primary wave. While the price still has some freedom within wave ii context this is probably the crux of the move arriving if the count is correct, and I dont see any appealing alternatives. Be prepared for a very bullish move in the coming days that could easily reach 1900.

  I like it.

[rayhan]

it pretty much shows up the different charts related to the current market scenario. The wave theory reflects it all the ups and the downs. The good and the bad. Go through it and you may find some good information. It is important to have a better understandig of such charts .You can either take advice from the experts itself ,which i suggest is the more proficient way.

[Dilla]

Nice, would be good to see $300 attacked this week/weekend.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We have rallied off the 62% fib in the mid 1650 as expected in wave ii of any primary wave. While the price still has some freedom within wave ii context this is probably the crux of the move arriving if the count is correct, and I dont see any appealing alternatives. Be prepared for a very bullish move in the coming days that could easily reach 1900.

Nice! Hope you're right chessnut, this is the kind of news I like to see when I come into your thread
Quite nice to read bullish predictions from yourself because you're one of the only EW guys I've come across that has no agenda, no bias etc. Reading positive price predictions from you mean more than the same kind of predictions from perma bulls. Keep up the good work bro!

[h3speros]

Hey guys,

I suspected that this would be a bear trap. It seems waiting for some action was a good idea.

Now commencing is an impulsve count, targeting original upside targets. Lets give it some time and see how it unfolds.

Ill add that chasing the price is never wise, this time no exception. we should get a fair dip and signal.

This is most likely a correction like paypal was. Could be 2 of V if that recent fall from 378 was 1 of V.

Don't you think you have little too much bull bias in you?

"Sell the News" works usually.

imo not so obviously this time, but yes, good reminder this one

DISCLAIMER, i have a bit bearish bias in me

[chessnut]

Hey guys,

I suspected that this would be a bear trap. It seems waiting for some action was a good idea.

Now commencing is an impulsve count, targeting original upside targets. Lets give it some time and see how it unfolds.

Ill add that chasing the price is never wise, this time no exception. we should get a fair dip and signal.

This is most likely a correction like paypal was. Could be 2 of V if that recent fall from 378 was 1 of V.

Don't you think you have little too much bull bias in you?

"Sell the News" works usually.

imo not so obviously this time, but yes, good reminder this one

DISCLAIMER, i have a bit bearish bias in me

I dont believe this rally has anything to do with news, its a BIG publicity stunt and big wealth transfer is occuring globally. There is no news to sell. Its not like the paypal rally at all because its gradual and persistent, and we have compounded a lot more evidence over time to support it. If I could see a good bearish count I would track it beside but I dont.

[Dilla]

Is there a certain formula that gives you an idea that this wave iii would go to 1900? Sorry for the newb question, still learning the basics of EW.