Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Tzupy]

Just did

im not buying anything until it goes below 300.
280 is a good threshold imo.

I think that's what most people are thinking. Which probably means we won't see sub-300, or if we do, it will be an instant rebound back up.

It doesn't matter what people on this forum think, it matters what the majority of Chinese gamblers traders think.

[1714853555]

1714853555

[1714853555]

1714853555

[1714853555]

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[sickpig]

Just did

im not buying anything until it goes below 300.
280 is a good threshold imo.

I think that's what most people are thinking. Which probably means we won't see sub-300, or if we do, it will be an instant rebound back up.

It doesn't matter what people on this forum think, it matters what the majority of Chinese gamblers traders think.

in fact he said it's "what most people are thinking". no mention to people on this forum alone.

[chessnut]

Intermediate abc seems to be building with Okcoin positioning net long by 59%

Shouldn't this have broken by now?

bloody took it's sweet time!

that was an e-f-g triangle where wave e extends into a triangle resulting in a very sharp beak down. it looks over. triangles are terminal. we are yet to retrace the abc from 3000 yuan by 62%, one way or the other I think we need to do this. this could offer an entry.

[Afrikoin]

Is this a 5 wave down from top at $504? Looks weak and could break lower.

Or is it a 3 wave - a, b, c?

[chessnut]

This triangle could be Z of wave of (B) (very exciting) or b of B (not very exciting)

we are aiming for a fib of the entire retrace.

[SebastianJu]

This triangle could be Z of wave of (B) (very exciting) or b of B (not very exciting)

we are aiming for a fib of the entire retrace.

Good call, though was that chart actual when you posted it? Wasn't the price already higher at the time of your post?

[Tzupy]

...
Good call, though was that chart actual when you posted it? Wasn't the price already higher at the time of your post?

No he didn't cheat, price was relatively flat for about 12h after chessnut's post.

[SebastianJu]

...
Good call, though was that chart actual when you posted it? Wasn't the price already higher at the time of your post?

No he didn't cheat, price was relatively flat for about 12h after chessnut's post.

That's interesting then. I mean if often enough ask myself, when we have such a waveform where the waves become thinner and thinner, where will the price break out to. I wonder if EW can give hints there...

[pontikis13]

Can someone please explain what chessnut means when he says "we are aiming for a fib of the entire retrace."  ?   Thank you

[RyNinDaCleM]

Can someone please explain what chessnut means when he says "we are aiming for a fib of the entire retrace."  ?   Thank you

The Fibonacci retrace of the entire drop from $500

[chessnut]

We are at critical crossroads. Seems like two striking possibilities here in this excellent local EW form.

1-2 i-ii or abc. The one two chance begins with a primary wave extension, nothing wrong with this count but it is fragile, becoming invalid with a solid break under 2500. abc only just meets the B wave retrace level of a flat. This would take us lower to a limited downside. The bigger picture is Bullish in either case.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

OMG, the original post looks like it was written by a bot.  I know it wasn't, however, but this reinforces my view that technical analysis is kakapoopoo at best.  It is interesting to me to see that "wave C" that was drawn, and to note that this is what we didn't see in the coming year.

Can't argue with a techie though.

[chessnut]

OMG, the original post looks like it was written by a bot.  I know it wasn't, however, but this reinforces my view that technical analysis is kakapoopoo at best.  It is interesting to me to see that "wave C" that was drawn, and to note that this is what we didn't see in the coming year.

Can't argue with a techie though.

Yes you can.

[Tzupy]

We are at critical crossroads. Seems like two striking possibilities here in this excellent local EW form.

1-2 i-ii or abc. The one two chance begins with a primary wave extension, nothing wrong with this count but it is fragile, becoming invalid with a solid break under 2500. abc only just meets the B wave retrace level of a flat. This would take us lower to a limited downside. The bigger picture is Bullish in either case.

I am thinking along the same lines, but with a bias towards the lower one (obviously, for a bear ).
Expecting the first correction about 6 hours from this post, of course if the small triangle breaks down.

[8up]

We are at critical crossroads. Seems like two striking possibilities here in this excellent local EW form.

1-2 i-ii or abc. The one two chance begins with a primary wave extension, nothing wrong with this count but it is fragile, becoming invalid with a solid break under 2500. abc only just meets the B wave retrace level of a flat. This would take us lower to a limited downside. The bigger picture is Bullish in either case.

I am thinking along the same lines, but with a bias towards the lower one (obviously, for a bear ).
Expecting the first correction about 6 hours from this post, of course if the small triangle breaks down.

Agree with you Tzupy. Let's refresh all the indicators. Give it some time of stability and then we are up for the races.

[eboard10]

Your 5 could also be a iii of 5.

[Wexlike]

I think the FED decision in 5 days will have a big impact on the direction of your count.

[Afrikoin]

We are at critical crossroads. Seems like two striking possibilities here in this excellent local EW form.

1-2 i-ii or abc. The one two chance begins with a primary wave extension, nothing wrong with this count but it is fragile, becoming invalid with a solid break under 2500. abc only just meets the B wave retrace level of a flat. This would take us lower to a limited downside. The bigger picture is Bullish in either case.

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/OVg6RiPI/

[img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/pZtkOb77/

I am thinking along the same lines, but with a bias towards the lower one (obviously, for a bear ).
Expecting the first correction about 6 hours from this post, of course if the small triangle breaks down.

Tzupy,

Curious, why are you bearish?

[Tzupy]

...
Tzupy,

Curious, why are you bearish?

Because I believe this has run out of steam, and a correction (amplitude unknown) is due, but for now the little triangle broke up.
There is a bearish divergence in MACD in 1h and 2h, and soon the 6h PSAR (and then 12h) may flip to bearish.
Without the little pump that corrected lower than the start point, we would have an hour or two till the correction.
With the little pump, if there's going to be a correction, it will happen again while I'm asleep (I hope not).

[inca]

...
Tzupy,

Curious, why are you bearish?

Because I believe this has run out of steam, and a correction (amplitude unknown) is due, but for now the little triangle broke up.
There is a bearish divergence in MACD in 1h and 2h, and soon the 6h PSAR (and then 12h) may flip to bearish.
Without the little pump that corrected lower than the start point, we would have an hour or two till the correction.
With the little pump, if there's going to be a correction, it will happen again while I'm asleep (I hope not).

Not sure how you can hope to be a good trader when you always pick one side of the trade by default. The price is the price and sometimes a quick glance at the chart tells you all you need to know - the line points up..