Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

The size of wave V is affected by the size of wave III.  

The bigger the wave III the bigger the wave V?

Umm I should say the size of wave V is affected by the size of wave I and III. wave V will be in fibonacci terms of wave III and I. I+III=1.618V for example. wave V+I=1 or 0.618 wave III. as a rule of thumb wave V is 0.618 wave III. if wave III is far greater than wave I, say 1.8 or 2.8, then wave V may be truncated to preserve I+III=1.618V for example.

[1715161641]

1715161641

[chessnut]

This is short term forecast but it is not a trade at all. dont short this. Hold your long tight if you got in in the 2000's

There is still a small possibility to correct to 2060, the lowest I would expect. If is this happened it would suggest a week or two sideways before more up passing the local highs.

There is also a very good chance that we are in a state of relentless up trend and that we will trend steadily not revisiting 2120 until we reach our destination. Picture the May 680 rally.

Every short scalp I've taken since 2050s has been regrettable.  this is just how the bitcoin honey badger works. shorting anything here is just a plain bad idea imo, regardless of down side potential. dont be distracted from the mediu upside potential.

[Carra23]

This is short term forecast but it is not a trade at all. dont short this. Hold your long tight if you got in in the 2000's

There is still a small possibility to correct to 2060, the lowest I would expect. If is this happened it would suggest a week or two sideways before more up passing the local highs.

There is also a very good chance that we are in a state of relentless up trend and that we will trend steadily not revisiting 2120 until we reach our destination. Picture the May 680 rally.

Every short scalp I've taken since 2050s has been regrettable.  this is just how the bitcoin honey badger works. shorting anything here is just a plain bad idea imo, regardless of down side potential. dont be distracted from the mediu upside potential.

Thats bullish news

Tired of the low prices. I was waiting for 2xx to get some more but will be delighted if it keeps going up and leave this territory for ever.

[chessnut]

Thats bullish news

Tired of the low prices. I was waiting for 2xx to get some more but will be delighted if it keeps going up and leave this territory for ever.

That is really 50/50 at this stage! good chance we return to test 275. The dominant forecast is 3000yuan medium term and then slow wave V retest of 275.

It shouldnt be a big deal to holders. even if we retest 275 why not get some bitcoin while they are fairy low now. It makes a lot of difference to leveraged traders. could be highly profitable to trade a couple more swings before the next giant bubble!

[ssmc2]

Thats bullish news

Tired of the low prices. I was waiting for 2xx to get some more but will be delighted if it keeps going up and leave this territory for ever.

That is really 50/50 at this stage! good chance we return to test 275. The dominant forecast is 3000yuan medium term and then slow wave V retest of 275.

It shouldnt be a big deal to holders. even if we retest 275 why not get some bitcoin while they are fairy low now. It makes a lot of difference to leveraged traders. could be highly profitable to trade a couple more swings before the next giant bubble!

And that slow wave V could very well last into January/February correct?

[chessnut]

Thats bullish news

Tired of the low prices. I was waiting for 2xx to get some more but will be delighted if it keeps going up and leave this territory for ever.

That is really 50/50 at this stage! good chance we return to test 275. The dominant forecast is 3000yuan medium term and then slow wave V retest of 275.

It shouldnt be a big deal to holders. even if we retest 275 why not get some bitcoin while they are fairy low now. It makes a lot of difference to leveraged traders. could be highly profitable to trade a couple more swings before the next giant bubble!

And that slow wave V could very well last into January/February correct?

Sure could.

[chessnut]

This is short term forecast but it is not a trade at all. dont short this. Hold your long tight if you got in in the 2000's

There is still a small possibility to correct to 2060, the lowest I would expect. If is this happened it would suggest a week or two sideways before more up passing the local highs.

There is also a very good chance that we are in a state of relentless up trend and that we will trend steadily not revisiting 2120 until we reach our destination. Picture the May 680 rally.

Every short scalp I've taken since 2050s has been regrettable.  this is just how the bitcoin honey badger works. shorting anything here is just a plain bad idea imo, regardless of down side potential. dont be distracted from the mediu upside potential.

This is playing out as expected. cant be sure where this impulse fits in but we can expect an abc retrace of this wave. like to be 0.382 or 0.5 in these conditions. A full retrace would likely mean we are revisiting 2060 but I dont think this is likely and bullish outlook remains unchanged in either case. This is no good reason to short. If you like to lock in profits maybe take a small amount here. Im holding as usual.

[SkyValeey]

Watching this thread.

[watuba]

On OKCoin  my Mcall(Margin Call) price has gone up from $306 to $319 after the price increase(bought at 340).  It doesn't make sense why the margin call price would go up, when my margin hasn't changed and I haven't closed out my position yet.  Right?

[sidhujag]

On OKCoin  my Mcall(Margin Call) price has gone up from $306 to $319 after the price increase(bought at 340).  It doesn't make sense why the margin call price would go up, when my margin hasn't changed and I haven't closed out my position yet.  Right?

Maybe they increased the margin requirement? Weird.. Seems they are stuck with short trades and need to find a way out... Btw ur leveraged too high if thats ur margin call. u should derisk imo

[RyNinDaCleM]

On OKCoin  my Mcall(Margin Call) price has gone up from $306 to $319 after the price increase(bought at 340).  It doesn't make sense why the margin call price would go up, when my margin hasn't changed and I haven't closed out my position yet.  Right?

Do they adjust for volatility? Or did they implement new margin requirements? Do they deduct fees over time or after closing out the position?

That last one, if they take fees every hour or every day, then this would lower your tradeable balance and in turn your raise your liquidation price.

[watuba]

Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out why that happened.  It's not changing regularly.  It's been fixed at the same $319.21 all day, so it's at least not charging hourly.  But there isn't supposed to be a carry.

sidhu:  thanks I got stops, and they aren't huge positions.  it defaults to a fixed margin of 10x, so your mcall is high, but you keep less money on the site.  I prefer it that way.

[Globb0]

Intrigueing, thanks.

[chessnut]

Intrigueing, thanks.

glad to help if I can,


I think we could be in a state of third wave, and I mean (iii) of iii. imo good chance we will be at 2400 in 24 hours. call me crazy..... this is all working to plan pretty nicely.

[BitCoinNutJob]

you seem to have a good feel for things, i need all time highs so hurry up and report that we going back over $1000 soon please i has plans 

[chessnut]

Chart is threatening downside here... perhaps best be ready for it. Might offer a great buy signal around 2200.....

[seleme]

On OKCoin  my Mcall(Margin Call) price has gone up from $306 to $319 after the price increase(bought at 340).  It doesn't make sense why the margin call price would go up, when my margin hasn't changed and I haven't closed out my position yet.  Right?

Do they adjust for volatility? Or did they implement new margin requirements? Do they deduct fees over time or after closing out the position?

That last one, if they take fees every hour or every day, then this would lower your tradeable balance and in turn your raise your liquidation price.

No swap on OKC futures.

[newbie123456789]

Chart is threatening downside here... perhaps best be ready for it. Might offer a great buy signal around 2200.....


https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lrqkx7OM/

So, wave 5 still needs to happen?

[chessnut]

So, wave 5 still needs to happen?

this here chart has nothing to do with any kind of wave V. the chance that greater wave V needs to happen is still not clear.

[chessnut]

a good long signal here is a simple breakout,