Whan speaking of bitcoin, is deflation a more appropriate term ? IMO, Bitcoin are in deflation, not inflation ! I'm I wrong ? if yes,, why ?
...BTC market cap, in USD = BTC value adjusted for BTC rate of inflation, in USD
Whan speaking of bitcoin, is deflation a more appropriate term ? IMO, Bitcoin are in deflation, not inflation ! I'm I wrong ? if yes,, why ?
It's not that it's a more or less 'appropriate term'. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you're thinking of 'inflation' in the way it's used by politicians and the papers rather than as an economic technical term. There are two distinct meanings. The more common usage is measured relatively to what can be purchased with a currency. e.g. a how much a set 'typical grocery basket' costs to buy a year apart. In that sense of course Bitcoin is deflationary. But the technical use is to do with supply money supply. Bitcoin is only deflationary from a technical perspective if more coin is being lost than is being introduced which is very unlikely to be the case. In terms of 'market cap' measured in USD it can only be higher with Bitcoin at $20 than it was at $30 if there are > 50% more Bitcoin in existence i.e. its supply has inflated by 50%, which is how thefiniteidea is using it above.
For fun I
posited in another thread that relative to total supply even the rate at which Bernanke's extreme USD inflationary policy is being implemented, as a monthly rate he's only introducing approximately half as much new currency as Bitcoin is. Of course this doesn't tell the whole story because for BTC we know from Day 1 how the monetary supply will pan out but despite the popular notion otherwise, for the next few years the rate at which new coin is introduced makes Bitcoin a heavily inflationary currency
thoughtfan has hit the nail on the head, doomdumas.
Price-Deflation is what you are used to hearing about in Bitcoin. That term is used to describe the prices of goods/services as they
decrease, because the value of Bitcoin goes
up.
Price-Inflation is the opposite. When prices of goods/services
increase because the value of Bitcoin goes
down.
So, when dealing with Price-Inflation or Deflation, there is an inverse relationship of price and value, in regard to goods/services and Bitcoin.
Example: As the Bitcoin price goes from $10 to $20, the prices of goods/services goes down from 20
BTC to 10
BTC. As the Bitcoin price goes from $20 to $10, the prices of goods/services goes from 10
BTC to 20
BTC!
Why does the price of Bitcoin go up and down? The price of BTC goes up and down based on the exchange rate, or market price, which is set by buyers and sellers, or traders. They directly trade the Bitcoin currency with all sorts of other currency, and even some with gold; the most popular being the USD (US dollar). They set the price when executing orders to buy or sell. I will get into the actual reason of why the price fluctuates in the last section.
Now that we've gone over
PRICE Inflation and Deflation (which honestly, to me, is a term made by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into Bitcoin from itself and other currencies), let's go over the
real inflation/deflation of a currency.
MoneySupply-Inflation is when the
value of Bitcoin decreases when the total supply of Bitcoin increases. In our current state, this is at a generation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes.
MoneySupply-Deflation will essentially never occur. It is when the value of Bitcoin increases when the total supply of Bitcoin decreases. This may happen, say, when someone loses their private key and all the BTC associated with it are lost. This effectively "makes the rest of us richer". That being said, there is a SET DECREASE in the generation rate of BTC, so you have sort of a "deflationary effect" in the value, as long as more exchange occurs for BTC at a rate which is faster than that set generation rate.
When all 21 million coins are produced, the MoneySupply will be neutral, and the value will continue to increase (prices will decrease, consequently), as long as people continue to exchange in BTC.
This leads me to the last section.
What determines the PRICE of Bitcoin? The VALUE of Bitcoin at a particular moment.
What determines the VALUE of Bitcoin? The SUPPLY and DEMAND of Bitcoin in the economy.
What determines the SUPPLY of Bitcoin? Currently, the MoneySupply-Inflation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes,
and traders willing to SELL Bitcoin to BUYERS in exchange for other supplies of money (currencies).What determines the DEMAND of Bitcoin? Traders willing to BUY Bitcoin from SELLERS in exchange for other currencies.
Therefore: BUYERS, SELLERS, and MONEYSUPPLY-INFLATION (miners) determine the VALUE of Bitcoin, which determines the PRICE of BTC as BUYERS and SELLERS trade based on that VALUE (or supply and demand) of Bitcoin.
We don't exactly know the totality of the supply and demand. Sure, we could try and aggregate data from all the exchanges, but we will never be accurate as there are exchanges which can not be accounted for (OTC). The cool thing is that we DO know the MoneySupply rate, and we DO know the exchange rate. From this, we can determine a real value of bitcoin when simply multiplying the two factors. This is the "Market Capitalization".
Effectively, the quantitative analysis of supply and demand is really what the currency exchange traders attempt to accurately determine which is conveyed through buying and selling of Bitcoin, setting a VALUE via the PRICED exchange rate of the currency. On a side note, most of the big Market Makers (FX Traders) use this price movement as a way to make a profitable living, as well. Especially when price fluctuations are a consequence of hype or fear (bubbles, cliffs), not factual supply/demand data, and are wildly out of the real price range.
Thus, if you analyze the
proper macroeconomic data in an attempt to forecast future DEMAND for more Bitcoin (price increase), you will realize some very interesting things, and have a more accurate picture of where the price is going...
Happy trading!
