Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.

[Vandroiy]

See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

[fatigue]

See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another!

[pirateat40]

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,

[Vandroiy]

I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another!

I honestly think it must be earlier.

But yes, that would really be best. Imagine someone talked to you with the assumption the Earth is flat while going on a trip to space. What'll you say if it becomes a flamewar? I opt for "I will apologize if it's wrong, but can't you just wait and see for yourself?" Once you've seen it, that's just it.

A good part of the flamewar stems from people being over-aggressive in discussions and wrong. One of the two is okay, but if you ever do both, it's really necessary to write an apology. Again, I promise I will if I should I be wrong -- this does not concern the bet, but the statement that we're faced with a HYIP Ponzi.

After all of this is over, I'd like it if we gather the people involved and sort this out. Because if all of this this is what it clearly looks like to me, this place is pretty defunct as a community. And by that I mean worse than most 4chan boards.

In fact, I'm off to visit some bronies. They're the same weird nerd crew, just not intent of working against each other at all times, even for mutual damage. Have all fun pushing the scam larger, and take pride if you manage to say I was paid out of it or got me loss-butthurt, fuck if I care. E-Positive, Kelly said yes, just be the machine and even if you lose, silently analyze the mistake for the next $$$ or BTCBTCBTC, for money is the measure of all in life.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,

Thanks, Pirateat40. I wonder why they thought I'd take the bet. You, at least, are honest with yourself.

[chsados]

Vandroiy.... if you want to give to charity, i really could use help on my rent.  It really makes me feel like an ant with that amounts of bitcoins you guys hold

[Bjork]

Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.

[Stephen Gornick]

Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.

There's a Bitcoin-powered predictions market, and that's currently the bet statement with the largest wager, by a factor of 2:1 over the next largest:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

[bitcoinBull]

This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)

I've already done the math on that, and it's a beautiful arbitrage scenario!

Its less than doubling, because the deposit would be lost in a default. But there is a profit, which comes from exploiting the market inefficiency which is pirateat40 lenders' mistaken beliefs of continued returns (its their 5k btc he would win). In an efficient market, insurance on deposits would cost the interest earned, exactly.

But while Vandroiy is getting just a sliver, pirate gets the pie.

I think the publicity of this bet will inspire confidence, accelerating growth and therefore the inevitable endgame, default. Its in both parties' best interest (both exploiting the same inefficiency).

[dooglus]

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

[ribuck]

I think it's funny how Vandroiy spent so much energy trying to save people from making mistakes with BS&T and their money, yet was resistant to others trying to save him from making mistakes with BS&T and his money.

There's a Bitcoin-powered predictions market...

Unfortunately it's not really a predictions market, because you can't trade bets. A real predictions market for BS&T default would be awesome!

[Bitcoin Oz]

 

[hgmichna]

This is win win for Pirate.   Even if he is running a scam, all he has to do is drag it out until November 2013 and hey presto.    A really stupid bet to make on Vandroiy's part, but oh well.   A fool and his money etc etc.

He can't drag it out that long. If he keeps the interest rate high, his money will be finished through payouts long before that. If he lowers the interest rate, enough "investors" will recall their money, so he would quickly run out of money too.

Perhaps he's a millionaire, and he can afford to lose a large amount of money, merely to bolster his ego and inflate his reputation. In that case Vandroiy would indeed lose, Pirate would start a new Ponzi scheme, using his now improved reputation, and would rip off even more unsuspecting "investors".

As to "stupid bet", I'd say, no risk—no fun.

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

All you're missing from that post is an "IMO"

At least you don't have any money to lose in all this,  so more power to you for being smart enough not to make crazy bets with seemingly rich, mysterious strangers on the Internet

[hgmichna]

There is a winner: nanotube. He's already banking 100 BTC

Sometimes it pays to have earned trust.

[hgmichna]

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

If Pirate did that, he would have to pay out first, which he probably cannot. If instead he switched accounts into a new scheme directly, then that would be considered a continuation of the old scheme, and the bet would cover that too.

If he paid out piecemeal and thus moved people over one by one, that would be considered a trick, and the new scheme would again be considered a continuation of the old one and covered by the bet.

At least that is how I would see it. We could ask the escrow holder. The bet contract contains a clause stating that, if conditions move outside the explicit bet conditions, nanotube is free to decide how to disburse the money.

Perhaps we should better wait and see what happens, rather than discuss the crazier hypothetical outcomes. Perhaps Pirate reckons he can make up for the 5,000 BTC by attracting another "investor" or two on the strength of his publicized bet, and has planned to grab and run before DEF CON anyway. That is the outcome I currently consider most likely. The second-most likely outcome I consider that he somehow manages to drag on for a longer time, but certainly not until October 2013. In that case he would need to pull a trick for his announced DEF CON appearance.

[Ferroh]

110*0.06 *52 = 343.2

The correct math for this results in 2276.7, NOT 343.2.

You do not seem qualified to run bonds like this :/

[organofcorti]

110*0.06 *52 = 343.2

The correct math for this results in 2276.7, NOT 343.2.

You do not seem qualified to run bonds like this :/

You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

[Ferroh]

You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

Fair enough, my mistake.

Since you can double your money in 12 weeks at 6% per week returns, why would a pro pirate investor invest in this for a year?

The upside for pro pirates is not high enough. You need as many pro pirate purchasers as default pirate purchasers for this to really take off.

[hgmichna]

Correction: That's because he let Vandroiy manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. Now that he knows he overstepped and can be right or wrong about the stability of his "business" and quite possibly lose, he's starting to wriggle on the line. First, he claimed he was giving to charity, when that was one of the mechanisms Vandroiy used to goad him into the bet. Then he acted buddy-buddy with Vandroiy as if this were a gentlemen's bet, when HE IS BETTING WITH AN ADVERSARY (you know, "more like guidelines") who libeled him all over the place in an effort to end his Ponzi "business". Now he's claiming the community is broken because, you know, this stuff can happen.

While I won't say Vandroiy played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull. Pirate saw red and charged right at the cape. Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side. It remains to be seen if Vandroiy will get an ear or two. 

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

Correction: That's because he let Vandroiy manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. Now that he knows he overstepped and can be right or wrong about the stability of his "business" and quite possibly lose, he's starting to wriggle on the line. First, he claimed he was giving to charity, when that was one of the mechanisms Vandroiy used to goad him into the bet. Then he acted buddy-buddy with Vandroiy as if this were a gentlemen's bet, when HE IS BETTING WITH AN ADVERSARY (you know, "more like guidelines") who libeled him all over the place in an effort to end his Ponzi "business". Now he's claiming the community is broken because, you know, this stuff can happen.

While I won't say Vandroiy played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull. Pirate saw red and charged right at the cape. Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side. It remains to be seen if Vandroiy will get an ear or two.

Good luck with that.