ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[stripykitteh]

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

Thanks for the explanation. So the arb'ing opportunity hinges/hinged on:

• reacting quickly to the news of the lowered price point
• believing it's worth holding shares in this price range
• seeing the auction fail to reach the exchange price when you sold (I believe it was around 0.45)

I see the price on Havelock is now down to 0.335. To me it's getting harder to believe that Seb's auction isn't affecting the market price, but I don't have a dog in the fight. Sure, it might subsequently go back to 30% APR or whatever *after* the auction, but during? The volume is too large.

If the 30% APR rule holds in the long run where does the share price go in February when the difficulty is 3-4 billion and AM is still on 130nm tech? That might be the time to buy.

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[jimmothy]

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

Thanks for the explanation. So the arb'ing opportunity hinges/hinged on:

• reacting quickly to the news of the lowered price point
• believing it's worth holding shares in this price range
• seeing the auction fail to reach the exchange price when you sold (I believe it was around 0.45)

I see the price on Havelock is now down to 0.335. To me it's getting harder to believe that Seb's auction isn't affecting the market price, but I don't have a dog in the fight. Sure, it might subsequently go back to 30% APR or whatever *after* the auction, but during? The volume is too large.

If the 30% APR rule holds in the long run where does the share price go in February when the difficulty is 3-4 billion and AM is still on 130nm tech? That might be the time to buy.

I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.

[muyuu]

I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.

Giving out money, or raking in a quick $300k? If you need cash fast, wanna buy a house, whatever, why not? if he believes as you do that they can be snatched up for 1/2 price in a couple months, why not? If you don't want to access or disperse your main stash, or board seat,  selling a few spare shares for cash seems like a good plan

I don't know his situation but I wonder who "needs" 300K US$ quickly and for what.

He could always auction a few and come back later, or try selling them in Havelock if that's possible (maybe agree to a % deal with them).

I believe 99% of the scenarios where this makes sense, are those where he believes the price will continue sinking, and fast.

[BitThink]

I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.

Giving out money, or raking in a quick $300k? If you need cash fast, wanna buy a house, whatever, why not? if he believes as you do that they can be snatched up for 1/2 price in a couple months, why not? If you don't want to access or disperse your main stash, or board seat,  selling a few spare shares for cash seems like a good plan

I don't know his situation but I wonder who "needs" 300K US$ quickly and for what.

He could always auction a few and come back later, or try selling them in Havelock if that's possible (maybe agree to a % deal with them).

I believe 99% of the scenarios where this makes sense, are those where he believes the price will continue sinking, and fast.

I think Sebastian answered in his auction thread. He's in hurry to invest in a new project but he failed in getting BTC out of Weexchange, so selling AM in a large batch is his choice.  But yes I believe he has been frustrated by the condition of AM (we can see from Seb's previous posts) and this is definitely one of the major reasons.

Moreover, the price of AM will certainly continue sinking, unless there're some surprise from friedcat.

[jimmothy]

I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.

Giving out money, or raking in a quick $300k? If you need cash fast, wanna buy a house, whatever, why not? if he believes as you do that they can be snatched up for 1/2 price in a couple months, why not? If you don't want to access or disperse your main stash, or board seat,  selling a few spare shares for cash seems like a good plan

I don't know his situation but I wonder who "needs" 300K US$ quickly and for what.

He could always auction a few and come back later, or try selling them in Havelock if that's possible (maybe agree to a % deal with them).

I believe 99% of the scenarios where this makes sense, are those where he believes the price will continue sinking, and fast.

I think Sebastian answered in his auction thread. He's in hurry to invest in a new project but he failed in getting BTC out of Weexchange, so selling AM in a large batch is his choice.  But yes I believe he has been frustrated by the condition of AM (we can see from Seb's previous posts) and this is definitely one of the major reasons.

Moreover, the price of AM will certainly continue sinking, unless there're some surprise from friedcat.

It is possible that more gen1 chips are deployed from now until gen3.

[BitThink]

Yes, it is possible but never mentioned by friedcat. I think he is worrying about the sales of Gen1 in 2014, but it seems the gen1 will still be profitable for a couple of months thanks to the current high BTC value. It is a difficult decision, considering the risk the BTC price drops a lot after a huge order of gen1 chips are made.

[sayonara_sam]

Hi,
anyone received their last div on bitfunder?

[101111]

Yes. Divs have been prompt at BF lately, I have found. Weex however ...

[robix]

Hi,
anyone received their last div on bitfunder?

No, I suppose no one. There are lot of problems with Ukyo/BF/WeEx.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=342122.msg3664826#msg3664826

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337523.msg3621482#msg3621482

[101111]

oops, sorry no I just double checked, last div paid was 2013-11-14 00:22:45

[dexX7]

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Your theory is flawed, because you assume that the final price per share from Sebastian will be 0.29. Currently 888 shares are already gone. A price well below "market rate" (Havelock price) usually attracts buyers very, very fast.


Anyway, I'd like to ask once again:

Was gen 2 "officially" droped or is the interview by the Chinese girl the only source for this?

[empoweoqwj]

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Your theory is flawed, because you assume that the final price per share from Sebastian will be 0.29. Currently 888 shares are already gone. A price well below "market rate" (Havelock price) usually attracts buyers very, very fast.


Anyway, I'd like to ask once again:

Was gen 2 "officially" droped or is the interview by the Chinese girl the only source for this?

Officially "droped"

[binaryFate]

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Your theory is flawed, because you assume that the final price per share from Sebastian will be 0.29. Currently 888 shares are already gone. A price well below "market rate" (Havelock price) usually attracts buyers very, very fast.


Anyway, I'd like to ask once again:

Was gen 2 "officially" droped or is the interview by the Chinese girl the only source for this?

If you don't know this thread, bookmark it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=220837

Franktank is doing a great job centralizing official information and summarizing the news every quarters.

I'd advise any new investor in AM to read up every posts from friedcat since at least September, it's the only way to distinguish real info from reasonable speculation/crazy speculation/totally wrong stuff.

[dexX7]

If you don't know this thread, bookmark it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=220837

Franktank is doing a great job centralizing official information and summarizing the news every quarters.

I'd advise any new investor in AM to read up every posts from friedcat since at least September, it's the only way to distinguish real info from reasonable speculation/crazy speculation/totally wrong stuff.

Yes, thanks, I know that thread. Great job by Franktank. And still I'm looking for the missing piece between:

Hardware Update
• Already shipped devices(Gen1, already shipped) were limited by quantity of the power chip supply we pre-ordered before two months.
• We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).
• If any deal of ordering Gen1 chips from outside buyers via us is reached, additional orders will be made.
• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size.

8. Financial Report
The next official ASICMINER Financial Report is scheduled to be released on October 20s. We had been in the process of accumulating reserves for a two-year-based small lab (all salaries) and a full mask cost for 40nm for one month. Additional income may be reserved for other chip advancements.

Next Gen Chips
The projected time of taping out of Gen3 is January 20. Power consumption target estimation is <0.2W per G on low power mode and <0.2$ per G on wafer cost. Please notice that the timeline is of course subject to change/adjust, and the estimation on power and cost is also based on software tool/simulation results.

Gen 2 was mentioned on Sep 24, it's unclear which generation the 40 nm belongs to and on Nov 22 gen 3 was announced. I don't see anything that explicitly says that there is no gen 2.

[sochee]

I think the future of ASICMINER now is really not in their own hands anymore, but depends on the competitors. We now have a vague timeline for Gen 3 chips (how "Gen 3" they are is up for debate); they will probably ship in March or April (providing Friedcat keeps to his promises). This is a huge amount of time in the Bitcoin world... if any competitors were to release a comparable product that actually shipped and was reliable, 1 to 2 months before ASICMINER gets finished, Friedcat is done for. I really have no idea why he sat on his ass after 'winning' Gen 1, but there you go. I'm not even sure who buys miners anymore when the difficulty is jumping so fast, if we could just go back to owning 10-15% of the network and getting good dividends every week, I would be more than happy. Focus on making good hardware and mining instead of packaging all this stuff, shipping it out, customer support, etc.

[empoweoqwj]

I think the future of ASICMINER now is really not in their own hands anymore, but depends on the competitors. We now have a vague timeline for Gen 3 chips (how "Gen 3" they are is up for debate); they will probably ship in March or April (providing Friedcat keeps to his promises). This is a huge amount of time in the Bitcoin world... if any competitors were to release a comparable product that actually shipped and was reliable, 1 to 2 months before ASICMINER gets finished, Friedcat is done for. I really have no idea why he sat on his ass after 'winning' Gen 1, but there you go. I'm not even sure who buys miners anymore when the difficulty is jumping so fast, if we could just go back to owning 10-15% of the network and getting good dividends every week, I would be more than happy. Focus on making good hardware and mining instead of packaging all this stuff, shipping it out, customer support, etc.

Looking for a single line in there I could agree with, but I can't.

Clearly fc didn't "sit on his ass" after "winning" Gen 1. I bet he has worked his ass off consistently for the last 12 months without break. Good question to ask him for next Q&A session? How many days off have you taken in last year?

[JimiQ84]

friedcat expanded out of mining - immersion cooling, USB hubs, backplanes...

[sochee]

@ empoweoqwj, okay, I will admit we can't know what he has been doing. However, how could he have been so successful on Gen 1 and then completely failed this generation? If he has been working his ass off for 12 months, why are we still at 60TH/s after all this time? Why did he go from the most reliable and leading-edge supplier to someone with no relevance whatsoever in the current market? I have read all 798 pages of this thread so I know how fanatically people believe in him being all-knowing and do-no-wrong. But even you must admit he has little to show for in the last few months. Whatever happened, we can't even know, since he is so poor at communicating. Unless you buy 5000 shares, you will get vague updates and numbers once a month, if you are lucky. A far cry from detailed updates every week when we started this venture.

PS expanded out of mining - really? You think immersion cooling is his own product that he's going to sell to people? You think USB hubs and backplanes are good products that will make money?

[sochee]

@ pankkake - yes I did read all the pages, ASICMINER started as a mining company and there are 100s of pages with people being obsessed with the hashrate. Only when it fell into irrelevancy did you start conveniently calling it "meaningless", but it is in fact not meaningless. Expanding to hardware is ok - when it makes sense. Gen 1 made sense because a large number of factors came together at the same time.

BFL and all the other competitors failed - there was no one to compete with. It was still the "gold rush" period for bitcoin - difficulty was still believably low and individuals were buying miners. Old technology was still relevant - let's not forget that Friedcat was basically selling a few chips using 10-year old technology for the price of a decent used car.

Now everything has changed, but for some reason no one realizes this. There are a ton of viable competitors who have actually overtaken ASICMINER and shipped better, faster hardware. ASICMINER is now the one playing catch-up. It is not the gold rush anymore; it is easier for individuals and individual newcomers to see that mining is hardly profitable, hardware becomes obsolete within a month and barely buys back it's buying price if lucky, and all of this will be doubly true come March, when the difficulty will be immense. Friedcat can no longer sell old chips - he must use more modern silicon, which means more manufacturing difficulties, higher costs, and lower margins.

I know all of you want it to go back to 5, I do too, since I put a lot of money into the company. But it's time to stop being delusional and use logic - ASICMINER is not the king anymore, and will likely never be.

[jimmothy]

Now everything has changed, but for some reason no one realizes this. There are a ton of viable competitors who have actually overtaken ASICMINER and shipped better, faster hardware. ASICMINER is now the one playing catch-up. It is not the gold rush anymore; it is easier for individuals and individual newcomers to see that mining is hardly profitable, hardware becomes obsolete within a month and barely buys back it's buying price if lucky, and all of this will be doubly true come March, when the difficulty will be immense. Friedcat can no longer sell old chips - he must use more modern silicon, which means more manufacturing difficulties, higher costs, and lower margins.

I know all of you want it to go back to 5, I do too, since I put a lot of money into the company. But it's time to stop being delusional and use logic - ASICMINER is not the king anymore, and will likely never be.

Care to name one of the competition that is "overtaking" asicminer. Am cube which uses old "used car" tech still competes in cost efficiency wotb those brand new 28nm new tech chips from knc and bitfury.

If you bought at 5btc/per that is your own fault for buying in to an incredibly overvalued stock at the time. It was obvious that 5btc per share is ridiculous because 10% network hashrate equates to 1btc/share and maybe this says something about how dilusional you are regarding asicminers value.

And when it comes to future gen chips it looks like the competition will be doing the catching up.