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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3916327 times)
kaerf
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June 05, 2014, 05:25:56 PM
 #20541

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

Basically correct, but I believe we can't sell for $0.5/GH/s in the future. That batch will be sold within the next 1.5 months, so we'll achieve a price of about $0.35/GH/s. And we should brace for a price above $700. Also, FC's wording seems to suggest that we won't adjust the chip price that much but rather sell more chips.

My calculation for those interested: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7148348#msg7148348


I used to worry about the rising USD/BTC exchange rate, but it appears that AM has the production capacity to pump out chips.

If the exchange rate goes up and AM doesn't change the price per chip, then sales volume should increase to offset volatility. ....because as USD/BTC goes up, each chip earns more USD (also need to account for difficulty increase).
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June 05, 2014, 05:29:42 PM
 #20542

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

Basically correct, but I believe we can't sell for $0.5/GH/s in the future. That batch will be sold within the next 1.5 months, so we'll achieve a price of about $0.35/GH/s. And we should brace for a price above $700. Also, FC's wording seems to suggest that we won't adjust the chip price that much but rather sell more chips.

My calculation for those interested: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7148348#msg7148348


I used to worry about the rising USD/BTC exchange rate, but it appears that AM has the production capacity to pump out chips.

If the exchange rate goes up and AM doesn't change the price per chip, then sales volume should increase to offset volatility. ....because as USD/BTC goes up, each chip earns more USD (also need to account for difficulty increase).

Ideally BTC/USD should rise equivalently to the difficulty. In that scenario a stable $ sales-price would make sense.
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June 05, 2014, 05:43:13 PM
 #20543

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

Basically correct, but I believe we can't sell for $0.5/GH/s in the future. That batch will be sold within the next 1.5 months, so we'll achieve a price of about $0.35/GH/s. And we should brace for a price above $700. Also, FC's wording seems to suggest that we won't adjust the chip price that much but rather sell more chips.

My calculation for those interested: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7148348#msg7148348


I used to worry about the rising USD/BTC exchange rate, but it appears that AM has the production capacity to pump out chips.

If the exchange rate goes up and AM doesn't change the price per chip, then sales volume should increase to offset volatility. ....because as USD/BTC goes up, each chip earns more USD (also need to account for difficulty increase).
Agree with that, a rising BTC price would expand Gen3's lifecycle. Anyway, hope the mining farm could deploy earlier to offset the BTC price problem.
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June 05, 2014, 06:17:00 PM
 #20544

they need to start up that 25% global btc mine they used to have so they can just pay out divs from there and not have to worry about the btc conversion problem they currently have             
Wink  Grin Grin

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June 05, 2014, 07:54:21 PM
Last edit: June 05, 2014, 08:23:25 PM by Franktank
 #20545

they need to start up that 25% global btc mine they used to have so they can just pay out divs from there and not have to worry about the btc conversion problem they currently have            
Wink  Grin Grin

In due time, friedcat said it best here:

Our pricing strategy was discussed in the board before, which targets low margin large quantity instead of high margin small quantity because: 1) If both device producers and miners can have real profit after risk premium, we will develop reliable consumer of chips in the long time.

If the mine was set up first, the total network hashrate would sky rocket → high network hashrate leads to lower hardware sales for hardware partners → lower sales for hardware partners, they'll find other options → lower chip sales overall → lower div yield in the long run; mining divs is not sustainable (long term) once everyone else gets their hardware online

However, if chip sales start first → hardware partners sells large quantities; end-users make profit early on → network rises but chip volume sales is high → sets up large scale mine → high chip sales and decent mining revenue → better, sustainable div yield; this allows all parties to make funds and be happy

A flawed metaphor but appropriate: Look at the video graphics card market, it's why you see it dominated by hardware partners like EVGA, PNY for Nvidia or Sapphire, XFX for AMD or ASUS, Gigabyte for both. You don't see too many OEM cards going out in high volumes. Similarly, you don't see Intel or AMD producing entire computers but primarily focus on the processor. When everyone makes money, the industry as a whole grows (and not cannibalize itself).

Now if friedcat is going the route where hardware partners get chips first around $0.4-$0.5 a GH and still believes that mining is still feasible afterwards, that means he's getting a significantly lower rate than the quoted <$0.2 a GH.

While it's quick and easy to jump in glee after that informative update, it still has to be executed. Receiving hardware within the scheduled time frames; partners needing to be up-to-date with latest Gen3 info to produce efficient miners; ensuring that end-users get their hardware in a timely fashion; and setting up the mine later on are all things need to happen correctly for it to go well. How these events occur will be more telling of the dividend yield, as opposed to just taking the hashrate accounted for and multiplying by the BTC/USD ratio and the going rate of GH/s sold.
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June 05, 2014, 08:18:21 PM
 #20546

None of us have gotten dividends since then. Dividends are coming once AM is cashflow-positive again, according to friedcat's update a few hours ago.
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June 05, 2014, 08:22:17 PM
 #20547

I have 10 shares of ASICMINER, but haven't gotten a dividend since March 30th. Should I contact friedcat, or did I miss some news?

Everything was answered in friedcat's latest post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7147330#msg7147330

Yes. You are very smart. That is why you just entered the ignore-lists of many people.
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June 05, 2014, 08:27:40 PM
 #20548

they need to start up that 25% global btc mine they used to have so they can just pay out divs from there and not have to worry about the btc conversion problem they currently have            
Wink  Grin Grin

In due time, friedcat said it best here:

Our pricing strategy was discussed in the board before, which targets low margin large quantity instead of high margin small quantity because: 1) If both device producers and miners can have real profit after risk premium, we will develop reliable consumer of chips in the long time.

If the mine was set up first, the total network hashrate would sky rocket → high network hashrate leads to lower hardware sales for hardware partners → lower sales for hardware partners, they'll find other options → lower chip sales overall → lower div yield in the long run; mining divs is not sustainable (long term) once everyone else gets their hardware online

However, if chip sales start first → hardware partners sells large quantities; end-users make profit early on → network rises but chip volume sales is high → sets up large scale mine → high chip sales and decent mining revenue → better, sustainable div yield; this allows all parties to make funds and be happy

A flawed metaphor but appropriate: Look at the video graphics card market, it's why you see it dominated by hardware partners like EVGA, PNY for Nvidia or Sapphire, XFX for AMD or ASUS, Gigabyte for both. You don't see too many OEM cards going out in high volumes. Similarly, you don't see Intel or AMD producing entire computers but primarily focus on the processor. When everyone makes money, the industry as a whole grows (and not cannibalize itself).

Now if friedcat is going the route where hardware partners get chips first around $0.4-$0.5 a GH and still believes that mining is still feasible afterwards, that means he's getting a significantly lower rate than the quoted <$0.2 a GH.

While it's quick and easy to jump in glee after that informative update, it still has to be executed. Receiving hardware within the scheduled time frames; partners needing to be up-to-date with latest Gen3 info to produce efficient miners; ensuring that end-users get their hardware in a timely fashion; and setting up the mine later on are all things need to happen correctly for it to go well. How these events occur will be more telling of the dividend yield, as opposed to just taking the hashrate accounted for and multiplying by the BTC/USD ratio and the going rate of GH/s sold.
I was mostly making a joke, but good explaination

I always like watching blocks being found by AM though
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June 05, 2014, 09:22:51 PM
 #20549

Thanks for the detailed information friecat -- that helps clear up quite a bit.

 And kudos to all those that were able to load up on shares < 0.2BTC.
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June 05, 2014, 10:01:36 PM
 #20550

All I have to say is LOL to those who ridiculed the man and to those that had no faith and sold out days too early!
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June 05, 2014, 10:15:52 PM
 #20551

All I have to say is LOL to those who ridiculed the man and to those that had no faith and sold out days too early!

 Well it's odd that we didn't get any real communication until the "ridicule" began.  The squeaky wheel gets the grease - apparently we are lubed up.
To the moon!!

PS - Thanks for the info FC
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June 05, 2014, 11:07:31 PM
Last edit: June 05, 2014, 11:32:11 PM by necro_nemesis
 #20552

Without a doubt the trader's have a large influence on the daily share price through their trading actions but I wouldn't go as far as saying the complaints posted here were nothing more than a barometer of shareholder discontent with respect to the limited information forthcoming from AM. I suspect a level of concern expressed by the large stakeholders communicated the need to pacify the masses as a result of profound under valuation of their shares and resulted in the information we were given. What this implies is there remains interest at the management level in the valuation of AM shares.
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June 05, 2014, 11:12:44 PM
Last edit: June 05, 2014, 11:29:56 PM by VolanicEruptor
 #20553

I agree with necro.. feeling shitty about your shares when there is very limited information about what's going on is a pretty natural thing.  This would explain why the price dropped so bad.  Bad shareholder confidence affected everyone.  

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June 05, 2014, 11:35:44 PM
 #20554

I agree with necro.. feeling shitty about your shares when there is very limited information about what's going on is a pretty natural thing.  This would explain why the price dropped so bad.  It affected everyone.  


yes, +1

this has been one of the worst weeks of my life in bitcoin trading, almost as bad as buying my first coins at $200 during the april 2013 bubble followed shortly by joining the bitcoin-24 fiasco.

mostly because the rock solid faith I've had in AM was temporarily broken, and actually finding myself listening to some of the FUD around here and trading with high emotion (unrelated to bitcoin securities)...

it may be a funny story one day, but never trade on high emotion kids even if you think you have to, it's better to do nothing until your head is clear (despite that sounding like a catch 22 scenario)




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June 05, 2014, 11:38:40 PM
 #20555

I agree with necro.. feeling shitty about your shares when there is very limited information about what's going on is a pretty natural thing.  This would explain why the price dropped so bad.  It affected everyone.  


yes, +1

this has been one of the worst weeks of my life in bitcoin trading, almost as bad as buying my first coins at $200 during the april 2013 bubble followed shortly by joining the bitcoin-24 fiasco.

mostly because the rock solid faith I've had in AM was temporarily broken, and actually finding myself listening to some of the FUD around here and trading with high emotion (unrelated to bitcoin securities)...

it may be a funny story one day, but never trade on high emotion kids even if you think you have to, it's better to do nothing until your head is clear (despite that sounding like a catch 22 scenario)





unless you're invested in ActiveMining in which case take whatever you can and leave and dont look back (or you will turn to salt)
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June 06, 2014, 12:58:24 AM
 #20556

Brief Answers to Shareholder Questions

There will be at least two generations ahead. If future Bitcoin market cap allows there can be more. As we are keeping the chip design capability to grow with state-of-the-art technology as well as good channels with fabrication we can be flexible in terms of business mode be it chip-based or device-based.

Thanks for answering all twenty questions and my sentiment changed from bearish and neutral to downright Bullish
Keep up the good work

..Stake.com..   ▄████████████████████████████████████▄
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June 06, 2014, 01:13:00 AM
 #20557

Another victory for Jesus Christ  Grin
Just had to say that ha-ha

Back to the thread thanks for answering all the questions Friedcat reposting to the main page since it tends to get buried quickly in this thread

Brief Answers to Shareholder Questions

First of all, we would like to explain the situation we had in this May. The sales of chips mainly happened before May, while the ramp-up speed of chip sales slowed down mainly because of the lack of flexible whole-device solutions (having features of easy transportation, widely available components, etc) from our customers (device producers). As dedicated projects on improving the design of BE200-based devices we believe we will see much better sales because the room for hash rate growth is still huge and our cost in terms of $/G is highly competitive.

The other point we would like to address is that we are not cooperating with any mining device producers other than in the forms of simple buyer-seller relationship. Nor we hold shares of any other device producers. Our pricing strategy was discussed in the board before, which targets low margin large quantity instead of high margin small quantity because: 1) If both device producers and miners can have real profit after risk premium we will develop reliable consumer of chips in the long time. 2) It alleviates the problem of many potential purchasers waste time waiting for future price adjustments. 3) Higher quantity of orders in this generation leads to much more support from the fab with respect to all future generations of chips.

1) On the Balance Sheet, approximately how many chips does the current Inventory (Products + Materials + Masks) represent?
A little less than 60P of wafers, most of which are on their final stages of production. The materials consist mainly of lead frames for packaging. The mask is re-usable for years if there are continuing demands for the corresponding wafers.

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

3) On the Cash Flow there was significant expenses for gen3 production (~6mil USD). Does that represent the bulk of gen3 expenses, or are the expenses for gen3 going to continue (additional wafer batches ordered, etc.)?
It represent the order we already placed and paid for. There still are forecast plans for June we haven't paid for. They may be cancelled or delayed to later months according to how fast customers can turn Bitcoin chips to hashing power.

4) When will dividends start, and how frequently will they occur?
When the cash-flow becomes positive. After we decide to put significant quantity of chips on ASICMiner owned farms it should be per week. Before that, per month.

5) What is the status of gen 3.1 (shipping to customers, I think?)? How much does it help with energy usage -- do we have final chip performance numbers yet?
All shipped chips are gen 3.0 ones. What we had chosen for 3.1 helps with energy usage at 10% range and has some performance degrades. The final chip performance number is about 0.7W/G at 0.78V and 320MHz. Below that voltage we have less power draw and less speed.

6) What is the progress on gen4?
It is 28nm and has two major improvements: the first one is to fix the design errors we had with 40nm (which made our silicon data two times worse than simulated data). We believe that 0.35W/G at rated speed of 400MHz would be achievable in 40nm if no mistakes were made before. The second one is the technology improvement from 40nm to 28nm in terms of density, speed and power.

We are on the stage of evaluating the final design choices by running the physical design flow on different settings.

7) What is the status of self mining? What is the rollout schedule for the data centers?

8 ) What is the status of franchising partners? When can we expect to see income from them?
We will report the more detailed status to the board first. The short answer is that deploying and financing is easy while getting cheap electricity and proper device solution takes time. When we have farms running we can update the related information with real time hash rate.

9) Can you please clarify this sentence from 21st April : "The dividend schedule will be aggressive, as AM will not require large sums of retained capital." < is this still actual, or meanwhile something changed?
It is still actual. The condition in May is not a part of the plan. When we were forecasted permissively about this summer's production power of the fab, we ordered as many wafers as we could to prevent the bottleneck with wafer production.

10) What is the average selling price of AM gen3 chips (price per Gh/s)?
About 0.5$/G for sold chips.

11) What is that ~4M CNY in financial report/expenses at exchange?
Exchanged to USD.

12) What is the cash flow ratio between the amount of Chips Fabricated and the percentage of the batch that is dedicated to cost.
There are no orders dedicated to cost in the short time. So it's 1:0.

13) What is the Break Even Point of this batch of Chips?
Although the cost of making could be estimated by companies with experience on fabricating chips of high-end technology nodes, we
would rather retain the accurate price per chip from the public.

14) What is the estimated conversion time from chip sales to dividends?
The conversion time itself is fast and should not be the main stagnation of the time frame.

15) Will the funds from future Gen 3 chips be used to fund Gen 4 chips or distributed as a dividend, and what relative percentage of income will be retained for Gen 4?
Both. 1/3 as forecasted.

16) Previously our Asicminer farm was mining bitcoins and distributing a weekly dividend, will Asicminer update its present hash rate in the mining farms to account for current difficulty changes and to procure a secondary supply of Bitcoins to adapt for rapid changes in Bitcoin prices?
Yes. But that should be when we replace the farm with BE200 based devices, otherwise it is no point considering the 0.12-0.15$/kwh electricity price we get for our old farms.

17) What ever happened to the dedicated PR person and should AM make a website for distributors and for Chip inquiries?

18) Can we please get weekly, bi-weekly or monthly updates about progress, plans, sales etc. for preventing FUD in this thread?

19) Can you please communicate more clearly/frequently with shareholders?
When we are sure we get a good solution for the lack of communication we will announce.

20) What are the future plans and visions of Asicminer?
There will be at least two generations ahead. If future Bitcoin market cap allows there can be more. As we are keeping the chip design capability to grow with state-of-the-art technology as well as good channels with fabrication we can be flexible in terms of business mode be it chip-based or device-based.

Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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June 06, 2014, 01:24:39 AM
 #20558

These times are merely a test of faith.

Told you.
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June 06, 2014, 01:38:28 AM
 #20559

Another victory for Jesus Christ  Grin
Just had to say that ha-ha

Back to the thread thanks for answering all the questions Friedcat reposting to the main page since it tends to get buried quickly in this thread

Brief Answers to Shareholder Questions

First of all, we would like to explain the situation we had in this May. The sales of chips mainly happened before May, while the ramp-up speed of chip sales slowed down mainly because of the lack of flexible whole-device solutions (having features of easy transportation, widely available components, etc) from our customers (device producers). As dedicated projects on improving the design of BE200-based devices we believe we will see much better sales because the room for hash rate growth is still huge and our cost in terms of $/G is highly competitive.

The other point we would like to address is that we are not cooperating with any mining device producers other than in the forms of simple buyer-seller relationship. Nor we hold shares of any other device producers. Our pricing strategy was discussed in the board before, which targets low margin large quantity instead of high margin small quantity because: 1) If both device producers and miners can have real profit after risk premium we will develop reliable consumer of chips in the long time. 2) It alleviates the problem of many potential purchasers waste time waiting for future price adjustments. 3) Higher quantity of orders in this generation leads to much more support from the fab with respect to all future generations of chips.

1) On the Balance Sheet, approximately how many chips does the current Inventory (Products + Materials + Masks) represent?
A little less than 60P of wafers, most of which are on their final stages of production. The materials consist mainly of lead frames for packaging. The mask is re-usable for years if there are continuing demands for the corresponding wafers.

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

3) On the Cash Flow there was significant expenses for gen3 production (~6mil USD). Does that represent the bulk of gen3 expenses, or are the expenses for gen3 going to continue (additional wafer batches ordered, etc.)?
It represent the order we already placed and paid for. There still are forecast plans for June we haven't paid for. They may be cancelled or delayed to later months according to how fast customers can turn Bitcoin chips to hashing power.

4) When will dividends start, and how frequently will they occur?
When the cash-flow becomes positive. After we decide to put significant quantity of chips on ASICMiner owned farms it should be per week. Before that, per month.

5) What is the status of gen 3.1 (shipping to customers, I think?)? How much does it help with energy usage -- do we have final chip performance numbers yet?
All shipped chips are gen 3.0 ones. What we had chosen for 3.1 helps with energy usage at 10% range and has some performance degrades. The final chip performance number is about 0.7W/G at 0.78V and 320MHz. Below that voltage we have less power draw and less speed.

6) What is the progress on gen4?
It is 28nm and has two major improvements: the first one is to fix the design errors we had with 40nm (which made our silicon data two times worse than simulated data). We believe that 0.35W/G at rated speed of 400MHz would be achievable in 40nm if no mistakes were made before. The second one is the technology improvement from 40nm to 28nm in terms of density, speed and power.

We are on the stage of evaluating the final design choices by running the physical design flow on different settings.

7) What is the status of self mining? What is the rollout schedule for the data centers?

8 ) What is the status of franchising partners? When can we expect to see income from them?
We will report the more detailed status to the board first. The short answer is that deploying and financing is easy while getting cheap electricity and proper device solution takes time. When we have farms running we can update the related information with real time hash rate.

9) Can you please clarify this sentence from 21st April : "The dividend schedule will be aggressive, as AM will not require large sums of retained capital." < is this still actual, or meanwhile something changed?
It is still actual. The condition in May is not a part of the plan. When we were forecasted permissively about this summer's production power of the fab, we ordered as many wafers as we could to prevent the bottleneck with wafer production.

10) What is the average selling price of AM gen3 chips (price per Gh/s)?
About 0.5$/G for sold chips.

11) What is that ~4M CNY in financial report/expenses at exchange?
Exchanged to USD.

12) What is the cash flow ratio between the amount of Chips Fabricated and the percentage of the batch that is dedicated to cost.
There are no orders dedicated to cost in the short time. So it's 1:0.

13) What is the Break Even Point of this batch of Chips?
Although the cost of making could be estimated by companies with experience on fabricating chips of high-end technology nodes, we
would rather retain the accurate price per chip from the public.

14) What is the estimated conversion time from chip sales to dividends?
The conversion time itself is fast and should not be the main stagnation of the time frame.

15) Will the funds from future Gen 3 chips be used to fund Gen 4 chips or distributed as a dividend, and what relative percentage of income will be retained for Gen 4?
Both. 1/3 as forecasted.

16) Previously our Asicminer farm was mining bitcoins and distributing a weekly dividend, will Asicminer update its present hash rate in the mining farms to account for current difficulty changes and to procure a secondary supply of Bitcoins to adapt for rapid changes in Bitcoin prices?
Yes. But that should be when we replace the farm with BE200 based devices, otherwise it is no point considering the 0.12-0.15$/kwh electricity price we get for our old farms.

17) What ever happened to the dedicated PR person and should AM make a website for distributors and for Chip inquiries?

18) Can we please get weekly, bi-weekly or monthly updates about progress, plans, sales etc. for preventing FUD in this thread?

19) Can you please communicate more clearly/frequently with shareholders?
When we are sure we get a good solution for the lack of communication we will announce.

20) What are the future plans and visions of Asicminer?
There will be at least two generations ahead. If future Bitcoin market cap allows there can be more. As we are keeping the chip design capability to grow with state-of-the-art technology as well as good channels with fabrication we can be flexible in terms of business mode be it chip-based or device-based.

I think this is the most thoroughly answered set of questions yet.  Excellent [rubs hands together]  I can't wait to see all this hashing power unleashed... into my wallet  Grin
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June 06, 2014, 02:04:14 AM
 #20560

In case the great news caused anyone to miss it, rockminer is now selling miners for less than $1.1/gh (no bulk buy necessary).

http://shop.rockminer.com/goods.php?id=35
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