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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3888354 times)
velacreations
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April 18, 2013, 05:43:42 PM
 #3441

Already sold Cheesy

Might be the only time I've ever timed this crap right. Make up for some sdice losses.

yeah, I had some sell orders set at 1.3 at bitfunder.  I had forgotten about those, they were put there when I first bought a few at .7

Lucky me, I made a few thousand $$$ on a mistake.

I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.

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JordanL
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April 18, 2013, 05:46:46 PM
 #3442

Already sold Cheesy

Might be the only time I've ever timed this crap right. Make up for some sdice losses.

yeah, I had some sell orders set at 1.3 at bitfunder.  I had forgotten about those, they were put there when I first bought a few at .7

Lucky me, I made a few thousand $$$ on a mistake.

I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.


Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
velacreations
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April 18, 2013, 05:49:55 PM
 #3443

Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.

there's no demand in the market.  No one is buying, and everyone wants to sell.  

Look at the orders on the exchanges, we're like 16 shares away from .85 on bitfunder.  No one is taking sell orders, they just keep getting lower and lower.

There's decent support in the low .80's, the level we were at before the mini-bubble.

velacreations
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April 18, 2013, 06:12:20 PM
 #3444

I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.


Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Now's your chance, the price just hit .836

kokojie
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April 18, 2013, 06:20:17 PM
 #3445

Here's the simple maths of valuing ASICMiner:

There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.

The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.

Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.

Um... no that's not simple math, you are basing your math on the assumption that mining will only depend on block reward, which means mining will stop once block reward is negligible. That's simply false, if mining were to stop once block reward is negligible, then Bitcoin would have failed at that point, due to no network security.

It is expected that transaction fee will make up for block reward, we are already seeing average transaction fee of nearly 1 BTC per block as of now. Transaction fee will go higher as adoption grows.

Also you are not taking into account of blade miners and possibly USB miners that AM is currently selling at insanely high profit margins that will bring large and fast short term cash dividend to investors.

btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
JordanL
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April 18, 2013, 06:26:09 PM
 #3446

I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.


Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Now's your chance, the price just hit .836


Trust me, I'm buying.    Grin
ex-trader
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April 18, 2013, 06:37:15 PM
 #3447

Um... no that's not simple math, you are basing your math on the assumption that mining will only depend on block reward, which means mining will stop once block reward is negligible. That's simply false, if mining were to stop once block reward is negligible, then Bitcoin would have failed at that point, due to no network security.

It is expected that transaction fee will make up for block reward, we are already seeing average transaction fee of nearly 1 BTC per block as of now. Transaction fee will go higher as adoption grows.

Also you are not taking into account of blade miners and possibly USB miners that AM is currently selling at insanely high profit margins that will bring large and fast short term cash dividend to investors.

I suggest you re-read what I wrote, my last sentence stated clearly my analysis excluded fees ie block fees and also sales from selling hardware devices ie new ASIC sticks or others.

Both of these are hard to forecast, as is the offsetting future costs of running the ASICs and the business overheads, which were similarly ignored for the purposes of the simple analysis.
furuknap
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April 18, 2013, 06:38:08 PM
 #3448

Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.

Hm... Are you talking about the expected weekly update or did I miss another update somewhere?

.b

ineededausername
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April 18, 2013, 06:44:46 PM
 #3449

I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.


Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Now's your chance, the price just hit .836


Trust me, I'm buying.    Grin

ygpm

(BFL)^2 < 0
JordanL
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April 18, 2013, 06:46:06 PM
 #3450

Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.

Hm... Are you talking about the expected weekly update or did I miss another update somewhere?

.b


I was talking about the upcoming weekly update.
velacreations
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April 18, 2013, 06:48:06 PM
 #3451

Trust me, I'm buying.    Grin

I think you're the only one, looks like sell orders are dropping like crazy.

The price might be back to the 70's by Monday...  Grin

JimiQ84
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April 18, 2013, 06:49:42 PM
 #3452

Trust me, I'm buying.    Grin

I think you're the only one, looks like sell orders are dropping like crazy.

The price might be back to the 70's by Monday...  Grin

I wonder why is that happening. Anyway, it's possible that after today's update the price will skyrocket again Cheesy
JordanL
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April 18, 2013, 06:50:34 PM
 #3453

Trust me, I'm buying.    Grin

I think you're the only one, looks like sell orders are dropping like crazy.

The price might be back to the 70's by Monday...  Grin


That would be awesome.    Grin
velacreations
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April 18, 2013, 07:09:29 PM
 #3454

I wonder why is that happening. Anyway, it's possible that after today's update the price will skyrocket again Cheesy
unless Friedcat announces they are selling more blades, I doubt the price will rise very much.  There doesn't seem to be anyone buying above the mid 80's.

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April 18, 2013, 07:10:17 PM
 #3455

As a reminder, my auction is over in little less than an hour: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179065

kokojie
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April 18, 2013, 09:21:28 PM
 #3456

I wonder why is that happening. Anyway, it's possible that after today's update the price will skyrocket again Cheesy
unless Friedcat announces they are selling more blades, I doubt the price will rise very much.  There doesn't seem to be anyone buying above the mid 80's.

He already said he will be selling a batch every week.

btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
velacreations
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April 18, 2013, 09:46:15 PM
 #3457

I wonder why is that happening. Anyway, it's possible that after today's update the price will skyrocket again Cheesy
unless Friedcat announces they are selling more blades, I doubt the price will rise very much.  There doesn't seem to be anyone buying above the mid 80's.

He already said he will be selling a batch every week.

well, as a shareholder, I hope there is news like this every week, because I like selling my shares so high!  But, I don't see how it can keep it up, and even selling at .92 is a good price for most of us, here.

ocbitcoin
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April 18, 2013, 10:06:26 PM
 #3458

Where are these so called "announcements" to be found, please?

Thanks.
robix
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April 18, 2013, 10:15:14 PM
 #3459

in this thread. everybodys wating but noboddy talks about.
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April 18, 2013, 10:17:23 PM
 #3460

sorry for the typos
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