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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3888438 times)
phantastisch
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April 18, 2013, 10:24:18 PM
 #3461

;;friedcatlag

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April 18, 2013, 10:25:10 PM
Last edit: April 19, 2013, 01:34:41 AM by velacreations
 #3462

very interesting spread on bitfunder.  Bid is .94, ask is 1.15.

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April 18, 2013, 10:33:57 PM
 #3463

So if ASICMINER were to mine solo, couldn't we see which blocks were generated by them, and therefor derive the hashrate so no one has to worry?
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April 18, 2013, 10:50:12 PM
 #3464

So if ASICMINER were to mine solo, couldn't we see which blocks were generated by them, and therefor derive the hashrate so no one has to worry?

They could tag each block they generate but there would be no third party to audit. You'd have to trust them, but as least you'd be able to calculate confidence intervals for the probability of accurate reporting. Then again if they reported 99 of every 100 blocks solved it would take quite a long time before it looked like they were having impossibly bad luck.

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April 18, 2013, 11:16:38 PM
 #3465

Patience everyone! Friedcat thinketh, Friedcat speaketh.
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April 18, 2013, 11:21:54 PM
 #3466

Is there a thread for official updates?  Or a website or something?
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April 18, 2013, 11:40:13 PM
 #3467

Is there a thread for official updates?  Or a website or something?
yes, you're on it.

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April 19, 2013, 12:24:05 AM
 #3468

So if ASICMINER were to mine solo, couldn't we see which blocks were generated by them, and therefor derive the hashrate so no one has to worry?

They could tag each block they generate but there would be no third party to audit. You'd have to trust them, but as least you'd be able to calculate confidence intervals for the probability of accurate reporting. Then again if they reported 99 of every 100 blocks solved it would take quite a long time before it looked like they were having impossibly bad luck.

Or they could just mine 97% known on the pools and 3% broken up unknown (pick any small number you like Tongue)
Only they know the exact current amount of hardware they are running.

Really, it doesn't matter where they mine as to how they can be audited.
It is simply a trust issue.

To match your example - if they reported their current hardware as 99% of real, then reporting 99 out of every 100 blocks would show up correctly.

I'm not implying they are doing this, in fact I'd doubt they are at all, however, there is no way to prove either way without full access to their hardware information - the pool choice makes no difference.

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April 19, 2013, 12:30:03 AM
 #3469

[Or they could just mine 97% known on the pools and 3% broken up unknown (pick any small number you like Tongue)
Only they know the exact current amount of hardware they are running.

In fact i found it always a bit strange that exactly 6TH could be deployed. Half of the power available. While the shares are spread nearly half shareholders to Bitfountain. But i trust friedcat enough to not think thats true. It only came to my mind always that the 6 out of 12TH are a bit strange...

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April 19, 2013, 01:37:20 AM
 #3470

Here's the simple maths of valuing ASICMiner:

There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.

The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.

Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.

Not accurate enough. Think about that when all the BTCs are mined, the only profit of spending the hashing power is the transaction fees. If BTC will be successful, which I think is everyone's dream here otherwise you will not be here, the transaction fee may be as comparable, or higher than the mining return. When this day comes, if ASICMiner is the super power of the entire transaction confirmation network, its return will be continued. Think about the return of a bank nowadays...

So now the question is, do you believe ASICMiner/Friedcat has such a capability to keep up with the increase ratio of the entire network hashing power? Any competitor at this moment?
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April 19, 2013, 01:41:06 AM
 #3471

Here's the simple maths of valuing ASICMiner:

There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.

The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.

Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.

Not accurate enough. Think about that when all the BTCs are mined, the only profit of spending the hashing power is the transaction fees. If BTC will be successful, which I think is everyone's dream here otherwise you will not be here, the transaction fee may be as comparable, or higher than the mining return. When this day comes, if ASICMiner is the super power of the entire transaction confirmation network, its return will be continued. Think about the return of a bank nowadays...

So now the question is, do you believe ASICMiner/Friedcat has such a capability to keep up with the increase ratio of the entire network hashing power? Any competitor at this moment?

I'm a believer.  Seems to me retained profits thus far and reinvested have been sufficient to keep up with network growth,  and I see no reason this can't continue to be the case.  On top of that, dividends in the order of 1% per week, seems like a good deal to me.

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April 19, 2013, 01:46:39 AM
 #3472

so how does one go about getting shares nowadays or getting in? too many pages to read so any help would be great

ok
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April 19, 2013, 01:48:28 AM
Last edit: April 19, 2013, 02:58:13 AM by iCEBREAKER
 #3473

so how does one go about getting shares nowadays or getting in? too many pages to read so any help would be great

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT


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April 19, 2013, 09:24:19 AM
 #3474

Are our updates on Friday now?  I avoided watching the thread so I did not go crazy, and figured there would be a new update by now.

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April 19, 2013, 09:36:29 AM
 #3475

Are our updates on Friday now?  I avoided watching the thread so I did not go crazy, and figured there would be a new update by now.

Updates are mainly sporadic because friedcat is busy "deploying"
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April 19, 2013, 10:40:25 AM
 #3476

so how does one go about getting shares nowadays or getting in? too many pages to read so any help would be great

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT

just to be fair... btct.co is the other option.

also auctions here on the forum

And please note that you buy Asicminer Passthrough shares there. So you have a contract with the Issuer of the Passthroughs not with friedcat directly. You can change these shares into real shares with a minimum of 250(not set in stone) with deadterra or 1 with burnside. And please check the fees of the platform and the fees of the Passthrough.

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April 19, 2013, 12:47:29 PM
 #3477

And please note that you buy Asicminer Passthrough shares there. So you have a contract with the Issuer of the Passthroughs not with friedcat directly. You can change these shares into real shares with a minimum of 250(not set in stone) with deadterra or 1 with burnside. And please check the fees of the platform and the fees of the Passthrough.

Sorry for this possibly stupid question, but... where do I see the fees of the platform? I only found the Passthrough.

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April 19, 2013, 02:21:30 PM
 #3478

;;friedcatlag

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April 19, 2013, 03:47:00 PM
 #3479

this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179800.0 should be used as a base to determine price of USB miner. Those FPGAs are 380MH/s, but are larger and consume more energy. Right now is price 7,5 BTC per piece.
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April 19, 2013, 03:51:22 PM
 #3480

this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179800.0 should be used as a base to determine price of USB miner. Those FPGAs are 380MH/s, but are larger and consume more energy. Right now is price 7,5 BTC per piece.

Yea, but the cost of an fpga chip is significantly larger then an asic. Discounting the NRE anyway.

That's significantly more then I could justify spending on one, especially if bfl delivers 5 ghash at $275.
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