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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3918219 times)
sleger
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May 15, 2013, 07:37:05 PM
 #5001

BTCT dividends are in
Ozymandias
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May 15, 2013, 07:37:49 PM
 #5002

BTCT dividends are in

Confirmed. Long live Friedcat and by extension Asicminer!
michaelGedi
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May 15, 2013, 07:43:54 PM
 #5003



ok that was hillarious, anyone who read my previous posts in this thread and what a sorry story it was... just got a nice and totally unexpected surprise email after rebuying my shares at a rather large loss Smiley

made a very bad day suddenly a bit better, thanks



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May 15, 2013, 07:49:23 PM
 #5004



ok that was hillarious, anyone who read my previous posts in this thread and what a sorry story it was... just got a nice and totally unexpected surprise email after rebuying my shares at a rather large loss Smiley

made a very bad day suddenly a bit better, thanks
Good to hear it!

But what was in the e-mail??  Grin
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May 15, 2013, 08:01:05 PM
 #5005



ok that was hillarious, anyone who read my previous posts in this thread and what a sorry story it was... just got a nice and totally unexpected surprise email after rebuying my shares at a rather large loss Smiley

made a very bad day suddenly a bit better, thanks
Good to hear it!

But what was in the e-mail??  Grin

ah sorry for being cryptic, it was the BTC TC dividends, I thought I'd bought my shares back too late but no Smiley

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Scott J
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May 15, 2013, 08:01:52 PM
 #5006



ok that was hillarious, anyone who read my previous posts in this thread and what a sorry story it was... just got a nice and totally unexpected surprise email after rebuying my shares at a rather large loss Smiley

made a very bad day suddenly a bit better, thanks
Good to hear it!

But what was in the e-mail??  Grin

ah sorry for being cryptic, it was the BTC TC dividends, I thought I'd bought my shares back too late but no Smiley

Great news! Smiley
Fabrizio89
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May 15, 2013, 08:05:09 PM
 #5007

Ahah, lucky man Cheesy
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May 15, 2013, 08:30:58 PM
 #5008

If you think asicminer shares are going up you can make a lot more money by buying options than buying the actual shares.
freedomno1
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May 15, 2013, 08:36:02 PM
 #5009

Well now I'm happy selling out at 1.9 for now Full disclosure lol was buying up all those panic shares at 1.5 1.6
But fun at havelock should see if btc-tc is on sale or not atm at 0.018
Either way Still in for the long run good day Smiley

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teek
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May 15, 2013, 08:49:10 PM
 #5010

If you think asicminer shares are going up you can make a lot more money by buying options than buying the actual shares.

Where is there any options for more than just a few shares?   (between both exchanges I see maybe call option for 20 shares combined)

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May 15, 2013, 08:51:51 PM
 #5011

If you think asicminer shares are going up you can make a lot more money by buying options than buying the actual shares.

Where is there any options for more than just a few shares?   (between both exchanges I see maybe call option for 20 shares combined)



Maybe cause of the fees, and its a little more complex than ordinary shares.
freedomno1
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May 15, 2013, 09:05:23 PM
 #5012

What exchange uses the option market
How long are the options for and what is the premium price

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fredtrader
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May 15, 2013, 09:11:16 PM
 #5013

What exchange uses the option market
How long are the options for and what is the premium price

The premiums change depending on what people are offering, bitfunder and btct both allow for options trading.
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May 15, 2013, 09:16:45 PM
 #5014

What exchange uses the option market
How long are the options for and what is the premium price

The premiums change depending on what people are offering, bitfunder and btct both allow for options trading.

That sounds interesting might check that out since I believe that this company can do well in the long run Cheesy
Thanks for the info

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May 16, 2013, 01:15:34 AM
 #5015

If you think asicminer shares are going up you can make a lot more money by buying options than buying the actual shares.

It'd be interesting to see how well options do given that AM isn't very liquid. In an illiquid market you could end up with a situation of options being in the money but being forced to exercise them yourself to realize the profit, if you can't onsell them.

I did think about buying some call options earlier in the week and then realizing the profit when the price went up by selling some of what I hold and buying back to exercise them (creating my own liquidity). Then I realized I would be way over my comfort level and just forgot about it.  Smiley

 
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freedomno1
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May 16, 2013, 02:49:33 AM
 #5016

If you think asicminer shares are going up you can make a lot more money by buying options than buying the actual shares.

It'd be interesting to see how well options do given that AM isn't very liquid. In an illiquid market you could end up with a situation of options being in the money but being forced to exercise them yourself to realize the profit, if you can't onsell them.

I did think about buying some call options earlier in the week and then realizing the profit when the price went up by selling some of what I hold and buying back to exercise them (creating my own liquidity). Then I realized I would be way over my comfort level and just forgot about it.  Smiley

Good point takes that as good advice, I'm thinking that if the interest keeps rising in ASIC the liquidity will follow today is a very active day on havelock usual 5-10 trades an hour is 25 and watching btc-tc looks like its moving there too but options are always more tricky it takes a bit of time to learn how they work differences between puts and calls exercise price risk premium diminishing value of the option as it gets closer to the exercise date etc. That does mean it has a lower liquidity but thanks for the advice Smiley

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Aureum_Coffee
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May 16, 2013, 05:11:11 AM
 #5017

Have no idea why someone said a company paying out big dividend is going out of business.  Look at IBM, Microsoft, Apple.  They have not gone out of business.

Check out these companies' dividend history.

http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm

https://www.microsoft.com/investor/Stock/StockSplit/default.aspx

Now if the argument is that ASICminer is a ponzi company, then there is no need to go to all the extra trouble to design and sell real products.  Just copy what BFL does and still be $$$ ahead by miles.  If AM ultimately turns out to be a ponzi, I am not saying it is, all those people who bought shares knows full well any company can go tomorrow.  It can be getting sued by patent lawyers, IP trolls, people who claim the ASIC hardware next door can make them go crazy with radio waves.  That's the risk of investing.

As for people selling large numbers of shares, my educated guess is that they purchased at IPO price, probably at 1/20th of what the market value is.  After the stock has run up 100% or 200%, it's not unusual to see large share holders to sell some shares to decrease the risk.  Diversify.  What they are doing is getting their original capital investment back, and the rest of the shares are lottery tickets.  If the company goes away next week, then they still have their original capital in BTC.  Their position is "hedged".   

I would be very worried if the stock or share exchanges allow HFT computers to trade.  With HFT, the gig is up, anyone with enough computational power can crash the share price to 0 (or nearly zero) and pick up shares for nothing, and profit from the manipulation.

Full Disclosure: I am an AM share holder.  Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.
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May 16, 2013, 06:19:21 AM
 #5018

Have no idea why someone said a company paying out big dividend is going out of business.  Look at IBM, Microsoft, Apple.  They have not gone out of business.

Check out these companies' dividend history.

http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm

You do realize, of course, that Apple is famous for not paying a dime in dividends under Steve Jobs, the period in which they grew most and became the largest company in the world?

You do realize, of course, that from the time Apple started paying dividends again, their value has dropped drastically?

You do realize, of course, that Apple really has no market in which to grow anymore?

You do realize, of course, that one of the primary reasons why Apple has been so successful is their large capital base that allows them to squeeze virtually every vendor and supplier with whom they work and protect their IP through numerous patents and legal actions against breaches of those patents?

I believe I was the one saying what you erroneously paraphrase, though, but what I said was that taking money out of a growth company limits the growth, thus undermining the company's ability to survive in the long term. It's simple math, feel free to argue against it, and for practice, you can start arguing against 2+2=4.

You may also want to look up histories of non-dividend paying companies like, I don't know, Berkshire Hathaway? You may have heard about Warren Buffett? Ask him when you'll get dividends from his company, which is now the higest priced share in the US at least, trading at around $170,000 per share (yeah, that's ~฿1500 per share). When Warren Buffett bought them, they cost $11.75 (฿0.1)

If AM ultimately turns out to be a ponzi, I am not saying it is, all those people who bought shares knows full well any company can go tomorrow.  It can be getting sued by patent lawyers, IP trolls, people who claim the ASIC hardware next door can make them go crazy with radio waves.  That's the risk of investing.

You do realize, of course, that having the largest pile of cash in the known world sorta reduces the risk that a patent troll can turn a company into dust tomorrow?

Honestly, do you think that the reason why Apple and its peers have billions of dollars in their accounts is that they just like seeing those huge sums at their bank statements each month? Do you also believe that investors think "You know, that Jobs guy is really swell, I'll help him achieve his dream of seeing 10 digits on the Available Balance for no other reason than being nice"?

As for people selling large numbers of shares, my educated guess is that they purchased at IPO price, probably at 1/20th of what the market value is.  After the stock has run up 100% or 200%, it's not unusual to see large share holders to sell some shares to decrease the risk.  Diversify.  What they are doing is getting their original capital investment back, and the rest of the shares are lottery tickets.  If the company goes away next week, then they still have their original capital in BTC.  Their position is "hedged".   

Yes, because the people who have been with this share since its inception and know it like they know the insides of their own foreskins most likely think that the price will continue to rise and they'll just throw that extra money out the window.

Could it possibly be that, and let's just be purely hypothetical here for a moment, that people that sell out at these very low levels (according to the logic of those buying) have done the math and think that the price won't rise anymore? That, perhaps, they believe the policy of paying out every last dime of available cash may not be the best strategy for future growth?

I'm sorry to say, but with the latest dividend payout, my confidence in AM has fallen dramatically. I think it is irresponsible of them to pay out the equivalent of ฿60K in dividends per month, the equivalent of almost 50% of the entire Bitcoin coin production.

I'll happily admit I've sold most of my AM holdings after running numbers again that show me there is no possible way to recouperate a share price of ฿1.7, much less yield a profit, when you think beyond 2016.

At these price levels, investors have a negative ROI of 8% per year if friedcat manages to get his projected 10% of the total hash rate on average and only manages to sell ฿1000 worth of hardware per month. Even at 15% of the total hash rate, the annual yield looks like around 1%. At 20% of the hash rate on average, AM yields slightly better than a NASDAQ composite index fund.

.b

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May 16, 2013, 06:29:33 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2013, 06:48:27 AM by freedomno1
 #5019

Do appreciate the bears always gives me perspective  on how the market behaves but think that page one covered a lot of the scenarios
Given that this is a mining stock that sells mining hardware it makes sense to pay out there's not much they can do if they retain equity unless they diversify their holdings into other fields

Return On Rally If the price of Bitcoin rallies too much, then we probably don't need so much money to make our project succeed. We will
return part of the principals as big dividends before we tape out the chips
when BTC/USD exchange rate rises a lot.

No Future Dilution Each share of ASICMINER always
represents 1/400,000 of the whole company. If we have to attract more investors
in the future, we will only sell our own Bitfountain shares.

Potential Risks and Tips on How to Hedge We list all possible risks of
our project here, and the most straightforward way to hedge each of them.

  BTC drops too much in value This will finally make mining
unprofitable because even with ASIC devices people still have to pay
electricity bills and operating fees. Hedge: take a short position on BTC.

  BTC increases too much in value This might make your
investment of your Bitcoins to ASICMINER less profitable than simply holding
them. Hedge: take a long position on BTC.

  Failure to produce The IC production has some minimum
failure rate. We have some fund reservation ourselves to cope with this
scenario, but the risk here is still not zero. Hedge: diversify your portfolio
by also making bets on our competitors.

  Outpaced too much by competitors It will make the
difficulty very high and our efficiency/price less attractive. Hedge: same as
above, making some bets on competitors of us.

Regarding the dividends if they need the money they can cut it as related to point 1
We will return part of the principals as big dividends before we tape out the chips
when BTC/USD exchange rate rises a lot.
Furthermore
If we have to attract more investors in the future, we will only sell our own Bitfountain shares.

However that said if they need the capital they can get it

But thinking about it two other points
Not sure if the executives pay themselves a salary or if they are shareholders a benefit of dividends is that they pay themselves for good work instead of multi-million dollar salaries also the capital gain for taxation.
Also as there are no stakeholders technically this falls under shareholder theory if we go philosophical XD

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May 16, 2013, 06:52:23 AM
 #5020

Could it possibly be that, and let's just be purely hypothetical here for a moment, that people that sell out at these very low levels (according to the logic of those buying) have done the math and think that the price won't rise anymore? That, perhaps, they believe the policy of paying out every last dime of available cash may not be the best strategy for future growth?

Today's volume and price behavior is a blip in the life of ASICMINER. Do you know how many shares have been imported into ASICMINER-PT this week? Maybe 500 or so. G.ASICMINER? About 200. The TAT assets? about 200. Yet somehow the average price is still over 1.7. Only about 21% of the publicly held shares even exist on an exchange. My point is, MANY people are still buying, and MANY MANY more are still holding.

I'm sorry to say, but with the latest dividend payout, my confidence in AM has fallen dramatically. I think it is irresponsible of them to pay out the equivalent of ฿60K in dividends per month, the equivalent of almost 50% of the entire Bitcoin coin production.

You do realize, that AM is nearly debt free, is sitting on cash and BTC, and has a steady income that is very significant?

You do realize, that Friedcat has a demonstrated history of forethought, execution, agility, and business acumen?

I'll happily admit I've sold most of my AM holdings after running numbers again that show me there is no possible way to recouperate a share price of ฿1.7, much less yield a profit, when you think beyond 2016.

Ah, so this is the root of it. You have provided us with a giant wall of text, while rudely responding to Aureum_Coffee, in some unrealized attempt to convince yourself you did the right thing by taking your money and running. It's okay, and a very sound strategy to realize your profits when you are comfortable with your gains, but your actions do not limit ASICMINER from being more creative, diverse, and industrious than you can predict.

At these price levels, investors have a negative ROI of 8% per year if friedcat manages to get his projected 10% of the total hash rate on average and only manages to sell ฿1000 worth of hardware per month. Even at 15% of the total hash rate, the annual yield looks like around 1%. At 20% of the hash rate on average, AM yields slightly better than a NASDAQ composite index fund.
.b

You do realize, it is quite possible that it is you that is being short-sighted here? 10% is Friedcats minimum goal. We still have next-gen hardware to make, and who knows what other hardware, partnerships, and contracts will come from ASICMINER. He just sold 8000+ BTC of hardware in ONE WEEK, and you want to presume he can only sell 1000 BTC per month going forward?

Don't mistake my responses for unabashed lemming fanboism, I too have my reservations and limits to what I will risk. However, in this case I see more room for growth, and you do realize that growth potential is the true driver of share value, not dividends or some volatility.
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