ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[KS]

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You are wrong. These days we use immersion litho and double patterning, but e-beam is not cost effective for anything except samples and making the masks themselves.

Them engineers with them tricks. Can't even make a propah 28nm litho thingamagic.

[jimmothy]

More like ready In Two Weeks^(TM)

It could still take 10-20 weeks.

Or it could be never. Or all life on earth could be obliterated on News Years.

Seriously, Tapeout is a huge deal. It costs an unbelievable amount of money and effort to get there. It is possible FC could start reclaiming global hash percentages in March. A million years in the bitcoin universe to be sure. But obviously not something one can do in a few weeks. It takes a ton of planning and effort to be able to stand up in March and proclaim "we have 15% of the global hash" especially after everyone else has deployed the best that they have.

+1

First everyone begs FC to tell them when next gen will be here and when he gives them his best estimate it's still not enough to silence the FUD.

[Kouye]

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Yo KS. I'm looking to buy more cheap shares, care to dump yours in my stash?

[KS]

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Yo KS. I'm looking to buy more cheap shares, care to dump yours in my stash?

Nope.

edit: it's not like I'm trying to scare ppl into selling their shares, but Tape Out is really not as important as having a working mask, and when you do, you still have to book a run. Months.

[itamidensha]

Looking forward to the New Year then

That reminds me, The Chinese new year holiday is at the end of January. That might slow the production prep/process down a bit.
I was in China once over that period - it's frigging nuts! People were setting off fireworks in the streets for a whole week!

[jimmothy]

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Yo KS. I'm looking to buy more cheap shares, care to dump yours in my stash?

Nope.

edit: it's not like I'm trying to scare ppl into selling their shares, but Tape Out is really not as important as having a working mask, and when you do, you still have to book a run. Months.

He could have estimated having a working mask in Feb and you would complain that it is not as important as having a working product. We have seen that AM can in fact build asics and deliver on their promises.

But why even base your investment on past history. Lets all just assume that after tape out FC is going blow it and or take unreasonably long. Because FUD.

[Vycid]

But why even base your investment on past history. Lets all just assume that after tape out FC is going blow it and or take unreasonably long. Because FUD.

I'm basing my investment decisions on present facts. For example, the fact that the price-to-book ratio is worse than it was in March when there was no real competition in sight. I need to make no assumptions about FC failing.

If you need to counter every bear argument with "what FUD" you might want to re-evaluate your own biases toward FC/ASICMiner. I assure you that if FC's news today was that the masks were done and they are currently producing Gen3 chips, my reaction would be quite different.

When I predicted 0.3 BTC/share a few months ago, I expected pretty much this exact situation. Nothing has changed.

Keep in mind that successful investing comes down to superior information. If you don't know anything about semiconductor manufacturing, you might want to reconsider if you really have an edge here.

[KS]

...

Yo KS. I'm looking to buy more cheap shares, care to dump yours in my stash?

Nope.

edit: it's not like I'm trying to scare ppl into selling their shares, but Tape Out is really not as important as having a working mask, and when you do, you still have to book a run. Months.

He could have estimated having a working mask in Feb and you would complain that it is not as important as having a working product. We have seen that AM can in fact build asics and deliver on their promises.

But why even base your investment on past history. Lets all just assume that after tape out FC is going blow it and or take unreasonably long. Because FUD.

Are you just trolling or sth?

Tape Out signals the end of the _design phase_. NOT the same as _manufacturing_ (fabricating/"fabbing"). When you have *all* the requisites for fabbing, you still need to book a run. A rocket run can be as little as 45 days when a regular run is 10-26 weeks.

So no, Tape Out in January doesn't mean "chips in 3 weeks".

edit: and when the chips are done in silicon, you need to cut them up and put them in a package etc. Please lurk MOAR.

[jimmothy]

But why even base your investment on past history. Lets all just assume that after tape out FC is going blow it and or take unreasonably long. Because FUD.

When I predicted 0.3 BTC/share a few months ago, I expected pretty much this exact situation. Nothing has changed.

Keep in mind that successful investing comes down to superior information. If you don't know anything about semiconductor manufacturing, you might want to reconsider if you really have an edge here.

Besides the fact that it is no longer selling at 0.3 btc/share and that was only for a day on a very small volume which in no way represents the actual value of the shares. Also ignoring the fact that the previous week was extremely unlucky mining and this week is looking to be nearly double the dividend of last week. Even on havelock where it was dipping down to 0.3 it is now trading at around 0.5btc.

I don't need experience about semiconductor manufacturing as history has already shown us that Asicminer does know very much about it. Tell me why you don't think AM will succeed in creating 28nm asics where as the competition can?

[Kouye]

Are you just trolling or sth?

How much do you want for your shares?

[jimmothy]

Tape Out signals the end of the _design phase_. NOT the same as _manufacturing_ (fabricating/"fabbing"). When you have *all* the requisites for fabbing, you still need to book a run. A rocket run can be as little as 45 days when a regular run is 10-26 weeks.

So no, Tape Out in January doesn't mean "chips in 3 weeks".

edit: and when the chips are done in silicon, you need to cut them up and put them in a package etc. Please lurk MOAR.

We get it. Nobody misunderstood that FC's estimation was not for completed 28nm hardware. What we do know is 28nm chips are being developed and this is great news. Just because you can point out every step of the manufacturing process does not take away from the fact that 28nm chips are coming. So you can stop saying that they wont have working 28nm hardware by January because we know this already.

[jimmothy]

Are you just trolling or sth?

How much do you want for your shares?

He doesn't have any shares, he is obviously trying to pick some up for cheap.

[Kouye]

he is obviously trying to pick some up for cheap.

This is what I was trying to do, too. 

[KS]

Tape Out signals the end of the _design phase_. NOT the same as _manufacturing_ (fabricating/"fabbing"). When you have *all* the requisites for fabbing, you still need to book a run. A rocket run can be as little as 45 days when a regular run is 10-26 weeks.

So no, Tape Out in January doesn't mean "chips in 3 weeks".

edit: and when the chips are done in silicon, you need to cut them up and put them in a package etc. Please lurk MOAR.

We get it. Nobody misunderstood that FC's estimation was not for completed 28nm chips. What we do know is 28nm chips are being developed and this is great news. Just because you can point out every step of the manufacturing process does not take away from the fact that 28nm chips are coming. So you can stop saying that they wont have working 28nm hardware by January because we know this already.

Please re-read the post chains. You seem to have missed the point entirely (which was to underline the fact that Tape Out does not equate "chips now" or "in three weeks"). Whatever else you infer was neither uttered nor implied.

And 28nm is not coming next. Next is 40nm.

[silverfuture]

he is obviously trying to pick some up for cheap.

This is what I was trying to do, too. 

It's what everyone will be trying to do before march.

[jimmothy]

Tape Out signals the end of the _design phase_. NOT the same as _manufacturing_ (fabricating/"fabbing"). When you have *all* the requisites for fabbing, you still need to book a run. A rocket run can be as little as 45 days when a regular run is 10-26 weeks.

So no, Tape Out in January doesn't mean "chips in 3 weeks".

edit: and when the chips are done in silicon, you need to cut them up and put them in a package etc. Please lurk MOAR.

We get it. Nobody misunderstood that FC's estimation was not for completed 28nm chips. What we do know is 28nm chips are being developed and this is great news. Just because you can point out every step of the manufacturing process does not take away from the fact that 28nm chips are coming. So you can stop saying that they wont have working 28nm hardware by January because we know this already.

Please re-read the post chains. You seem to have missed the point entirely (which was to underline the fact that Tape Out does not equate "chips now" or "in three weeks"). Whatever else you infer was neither uttered nor implied.

And 28nm is not coming next. Next is 40nm.

I was under the assumption that 40nm was gen2 and 28nm was gen3. Either way next gen chips are coming. Not now. Not january 20th. But they are coming.

Side note: Has anyone figured out how much more efficient next gen are supposed to be? If gen1 were 4.2W/gh and gen3 is 0.2W/gh that would make it around 20 times more efficient.

[dexX7]

I was under the assumption that 40nm was gen2 and 28nm was gen3. Either way next gen chips are coming. Not now. Not january 20th. But they are coming.

I think no one denied that. And I also think that teh baked cat will present something neat and shiny in some weeks or months. Not sure why your assumption is that people think AM that will fail at all.

I'm very happy about the news. A timeline is finally something solid. It's a trillion BTC years till then though, but at least this fact is known now and the uncertainty ends.

[empoweoqwj]

This is going to work out perfect. Dividends will dry up almost completely well before Gen3 is ready. Share prices will tend to zero, and I can pick up 100 more shares under a bitcoin in total 

[Vycid]

This is going to work out perfect. Dividends will dry up almost completely well before Gen3 is ready. Share prices will tend to zero, and I can pick up 100 more shares under a bitcoin in total  

And until then, as usual, there will be several rounds of people trying to pump the stock because they traded on sentiment and bought before the bottom.

Stick to the numbers. Bitcoins you cannot easily value. Companies are different.

[Vycid]

Well basically buying now is doing a Gen3 preorder. It isn't entirely wrong - but it is risky.
Unless I'm missing some of what you're saying, Vycid?

It's not like that, really.

This is a company, not a commodity. ASICMiner could have a TERRIFIC Gen 3 product and still have profit margins one or two orders of magnitude slimmer than they did for Gen 1. That's the myopia here... Have you guys forgotten ASICMiner's first blades were auctioned off at 75BTC each? What do you suppose the profit margin was on that, 1000%? 10000%?

There's too much looking at the past, saying "Oh, 0.4BTC is a great price, it traded at 5BTC once!"

The reality of the situation is that 0.4BTC isn't a great price.

And this reality is exactly what I was talking about all those months ago when I said, over and over, the profit margins would not hold.

Basically, if everything goes great, I can see 0.3BTC a share in a few months - it remains my long term price target, seeing as there was no doomsday announcement. If not, there's no telling how low things can go.