BitThink
Legendary
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Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
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December 10, 2013, 07:26:16 AM |
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We can safely ignore the dividend until next May and just gamble on 1) What's the first batch 2P or 20P; 2) what's the network hashing rate that time (100P or 80P).
If it's 2P and 100P, then the percentage is 2% and the weekly dividend is 0.0014. If it's 20P and 80P, then the percentage is 25% and the weekly dividend is 0.0175. Assuming 30% ROI per year, the share price is 0.24 and 3 respectively.
Moreover, the dividend will be significantly lower if most chips are sold directly, then the share price could be 0.12 ~ 1.5.
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chriswilmer
Legendary
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
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December 10, 2013, 07:31:38 AM |
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We can safely ignore the dividend until next May and just gamble on 1) What's the first batch 2P or 20P; 2) what's the network hashing rate that time (100P or 80P).
If it's 2P and 100P, then the percentage is 2% and the weekly dividend is 0.0014. If it's 20P and 80P, then the percentage is 25% and the weekly dividend is 0.0175. Assuming 30% ROI per year, the share price is 0.24 and 3 respectively.
Moreover, the dividend will be significantly lower if most chips are sold directly, then the share price could be 0.12 ~ 1.5.
Given that the network hashing rate will eventually be 1000s of PH/s... kind of makes me wonder what the gen4 strategy is... In general I wonder about the long term strategy. |
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BitThink
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
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December 10, 2013, 07:37:34 AM |
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We can safely ignore the dividend until next May and just gamble on 1) What's the first batch 2P or 20P; 2) what's the network hashing rate that time (100P or 80P).
If it's 2P and 100P, then the percentage is 2% and the weekly dividend is 0.0014. If it's 20P and 80P, then the percentage is 25% and the weekly dividend is 0.0175. Assuming 30% ROI per year, the share price is 0.24 and 3 respectively.
Moreover, the dividend will be significantly lower if most chips are sold directly, then the share price could be 0.12 ~ 1.5.
Given that the network hashing rate will eventually be 1000s of PH/s... kind of makes me wonder what the gen4 strategy is... In general I wonder about the long term strategy. The mining game cannot be played forever. AM has to find a way to get stable revenue out of mining before it's too late. |
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BitThink
Legendary
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Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
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December 10, 2013, 08:00:00 AM |
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No, he's a huge bitcoin holder (rumor is that he has 5 digits of BTC) in China and maybe a board member of AM. He's also the advisor and maybe investor of bitshares. |
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Ozymandias
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December 10, 2013, 08:02:21 AM |
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No, he's a huge bitcoin holder (rumor is that he has 5 digits of BTC) in China and maybe a board member of AM. He's also the advisor and maybe investor of bitshares. Ah, thank you very much! |
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bitcoin.newsfeed
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December 10, 2013, 09:43:18 AM |
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3. 3rd Gen chips were also under development during that period. It is already developed now but still under test. It is expected to become a mature product in Feb 2014, which means its key indicators would be much better than those of its competitors. It is estimated that the network hashing power would be 1000p then, while Friedcat would deliver several hundred of it.
- What is the size of the first Gen 3 deployment and when is it expected?
It depends on if there are any external orders for the first Gen 3 deployment and the final performance when the chips are out. From 2P to 20P are possible.
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... Question Everything, Believe Nothing ...
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szmarco
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December 10, 2013, 09:45:06 AM |
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3. 3rd Gen chips were also under development during that period. It is already developed now but still under test. It is expected to become a mature product in Feb 2014, which means its key indicators would be much better than those of its competitors. It is estimated that the network hashing power would be 1000p then, while Friedcat would deliver several hundred of it.
- What is the size of the first Gen 3 deployment and when is it expected?
It depends on if there are any external orders for the first Gen 3 deployment and the final performance when the chips are out. From 2P to 20P are possible.
... ... he said it's first batch. Not all of 2014 |
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jimmothy
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December 10, 2013, 09:59:04 AM |
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3. 3rd Gen chips were also under development during that period. It is already developed now but still under test. It is expected to become a mature product in Feb 2014, which means its key indicators would be much better than those of its competitors. It is estimated that the network hashing power would be 1000p then, while Friedcat would deliver several hundred of it.
- What is the size of the first Gen 3 deployment and when is it expected?
It depends on if there are any external orders for the first Gen 3 deployment and the final performance when the chips are out. From 2P to 20P are possible.
... ... he said it's first batch. Not all of 2014 Yea the 1000PH estimation was for the end of 2014. I believe that was another translation error assuming feb 2014. If AM got 20ph that would be insane compared to KNC first batch (3.6PH). I'm hoping they will offer some sort of usb/cube again since competitors don't have any low-mid range next gen asics (1btc or less). |
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robix
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December 10, 2013, 10:11:29 AM |
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Unfortunately no word about the status of the transfer of BF PT's to direct shares.  |
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VeeMiner
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December 10, 2013, 10:22:44 AM |
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Bad news ----------- 1) (Very) Fuzzy on launch date 2) Cube sales paid out already 3) Nothing between now and Gen3 launch to augment mining sales = terrible dividends for a while 4) (To some) 40nm technology (though I don't give a hoot) 5) No dedicated PR person ... still Good news ----------- 2P to 20P deployment. That has to guarantee at least 10% of the total hashrate right? For my money, the good news outweighs the bad news, but I'm hoping lots of people don't see it that way and bail out  Fair summary. yep, I like this summary and I agree with it. I actually think it's good news overall and since I'm with AM for a long run I'm gladly staying with all my shares, even though I'm pretty sure that the dividends will be very very low in upcoming weeks/months. It's better to know that the dividend is low and when you're expecting it you won't be too dissapointed. What will probably happen is that a lot of shares will change hands from speculators to conservative investors. |
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kirawei
Newbie
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Activity: 49
Merit: 0
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December 10, 2013, 11:02:56 AM |
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Friedcat no mention of Bitfunder G.ASICMINER-PT shares?
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hammurabi
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December 10, 2013, 11:11:40 AM |
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Friedcat no mention of Bitfunder G.ASICMINER-PT shares?
Maybe Ukyo needs more money from dividends. |
BTC: 1Hpk4rWpP3gACJhXHn8VkeNp4usdQmfuVY
LTC: LM5p7X9dTsWj14G2VQeJKuntVUc6GsPnDp
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robix
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December 10, 2013, 11:13:23 AM |
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Friedcat no mention of Bitfunder G.ASICMINER-PT shares?
Maybe Ukyo needs more money from dividends. I'm amazed and annoyed that he loses not a single word on this issue. He knows for sure that there is absolutely no information from Ukyos side. |
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aahzmundus
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December 10, 2013, 02:05:08 PM |
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People that held their shares through someone else were warned time and time again that you had counter party risk there. This is not Friedcats problem. As far as he cares, the rightful owner of the shares currently has the shares. You guys trusted bitfunder, not friedcat and now it's your problem, not his.
And to the people asking for seizing... or halting of payments to TF or to bitfundershares, HELL NO! FC whilst in a position to mediate, has no business mediating. And if he starts mediating, this spells bad news in the long run.
If you can sign a div address you own shares, if you can not sign a div address, you have a promise from someone else and no shares, simple as that.
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VeeMiner
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December 10, 2013, 02:06:57 PM |
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People that held their shares through someone else were warned time and time again that you had counter party risk there. This is not Friedcats problem. As far as he cares, the rightful owner of the shares currently has the shares. You guys trusted bitfunder, not friedcat and now it's your problem, not his.
And to the people asking for seizing... or halting of payments to TF or to bitfundershares, HELL NO! FC whilst in a position to mediate, has no business mediating. And if he starts mediating, this spells bad news in the long run.
If you can sign a div address you own shares, if you can not sign a div address, you have a promise from someone else and no shares, simple as that.
exactly. This is problem of people who trusted a passthrough, so don't try to blame your problems on friedcat. |
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robix
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December 10, 2013, 02:29:33 PM |
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Why do you think you are so smart in contrast to BF PT owners?
No one blames FC for anything regarding BF. We just would like if he would tell us what the status is. He knows for sure more than we do. Is it so absurd to expect him to give us the information on this issue he has?
Edit: Believe it or not, but we are also his shareholders. And he should stick to us.
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neilol
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December 10, 2013, 02:45:12 PM |
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Bad news ----------- 1) (Very) Fuzzy on launch date 2) Cube sales paid out already 3) Nothing between now and Gen3 launch to augment mining sales = terrible dividends for a while 4) (To some) 40nm technology (though I don't give a hoot) 5) No dedicated PR person ... still Good news ----------- 2P to 20P deployment. That has to guarantee at least 10% of the total hashrate right? For my money, the good news outweighs the bad news, but I'm hoping lots of people don't see it that way and bail out Fair summary. fc stressed that their emphasis is rightly going to be on Gen 3. That does portend some low divs ahead, so rightly or wrongly I think you will get your wish about the share price. The good news is good, but it doesn't have any bearing for 2+ months. Trying to predict the Bitcoin world, especially mining, 2 months out is voodoo at best. I'd rather hold Bitcoin and make a decision in Feb when we can evaluate the landscape. I think we see some record low divs and YTD price. Probably be some good buying opportunities in the New Year. Darkest before dawn, and all that. |
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Lohoris
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December 10, 2013, 02:56:34 PM |
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Why do you think you are so smart in contrast to BF PT owners?
No one blames FC for anything regarding BF. We just would like if he would tell us what the status is. He knows for sure more than we do. Is it so absurd to expect him to give us the information on this issue he has?
Edit: Believe it or not, but we are also his shareholders. And he should stick to us.
That's the point: you are not. Anyone who told you you were, was lying. |
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robix
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December 10, 2013, 03:02:11 PM |
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Why do you think you are so smart in contrast to BF PT owners?
No one blames FC for anything regarding BF. We just would like if he would tell us what the status is. He knows for sure more than we do. Is it so absurd to expect him to give us the information on this issue he has?
Edit: Believe it or not, but we are also his shareholders. And he should stick to us.
That's the point: you are not. Anyone who told you you were, was lying. What are you. A public officer or a schoolmaster? |
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