ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Vycid]

3 months ago the Bitcoin mining revenue wasn't a billion dollars a year. So no.

You're misunderstanding, also - it wouldn't be an Intel miner. It'd be an Intel ASIC - the actual miner (PCB, cooling solution, PSU, etc) would be assembled by other companies (or enterprising individuals), and those entities would be Intel's customers.

I know that...... we've been discussing vertical integration all along.... no need to explain the obvious.

I meant Intel miners the same way we use Intel PCs, yet we all know we're referring to the chip. Did you really need this explained or were you just trying to get me down?

Anyway, so according to you, if BTC price remains at these levels, it is safe to expect Intel powered miners in what? 3 months?

I just don't see it.

It's not safe to expect anything except that existing companies will aggressively exploit emerging trends for profit. I think it is more likely that we will see one of these companies start to get involved than otherwise.

My bets are on Cypress as a first-mover, but that isn't to say I can't see Intel in the near future. At this price level, AM's window appears to be closing.

I think it's time to call some people I know at Cypress and find out what TJ has been up to 

[superduh]

by the time and if any big big players get in it's still a ways away. and not everything big players do always succeeds!

[Voodah]

It's not safe to expect anything except that existing companies will aggressively exploit emerging trends for profit. I think it is more likely that we will see one of these companies start to get involved than otherwise.

My bets are on Cypress as a first-mover, but that isn't to say I can't see Intel in the near future. At this price level, AM's window appears to be closing.

I think it's time to call some people I know at Cypress and find out what TJ has been up to 

Honestly, I see this one even less possible !

AM is already a very strong brand in the Bitcoin world. I think Intel or Nvidia are the only players with enough brandname to just come and sweep everything away, but, as I said, the non-action up to now gives AM a good couple of years to work on its headstart.

Help me think something though... what would be the best way to fairly compare the scale of AM vs. Cypress ? Market cap? Ph deployed? Units deployed? 

[fumble]

3 months ago the Bitcoin mining revenue wasn't a billion dollars a year. So no.

You're misunderstanding, also - it wouldn't be an Intel miner. It'd be an Intel ASIC - the actual miner (PCB, cooling solution, PSU, etc) would be assembled by other companies (or enterprising individuals), and those entities would be Intel's customers.

I know that...... we've been discussing vertical integration all along.... no need to explain the obvious.

I meant Intel miners the same way we use Intel PCs, yet we all know we're referring to the chip. Did you really need this explained or were you just trying to get me down?

Anyway, so according to you, if BTC price remains at these levels, it is safe to expect Intel powered miners in what? 3 months?

I just don't see it.

Than we get miners with "Intel Inside" stickers.

Think of the overclocking possibilities.

[Vycid]

It's not safe to expect anything except that existing companies will aggressively exploit emerging trends for profit. I think it is more likely that we will see one of these companies start to get involved than otherwise.

My bets are on Cypress as a first-mover, but that isn't to say I can't see Intel in the near future. At this price level, AM's window appears to be closing.

I think it's time to call some people I know at Cypress and find out what TJ has been up to  

Honestly, I see this one even less possible !

AM is already a very strong brand in the Bitcoin world. I think Intel or Nvidia are the only players with enough brandname to just come and sweep everything away, but, as I said, the non-action up to now gives AM a good couple of years to work on its headstart.

Help me think something though... what would be the best way to fairly compare the scale of AM vs. Cypress ? Market cap? Ph deployed? Units deployed?  

Cypress does about a billion dollars of revenue a year. They specialize in niche markets that the big players don't dominate.

The CEO, TJ Rogers, is a hardline Libertarian.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cypress_Semiconductor

If AM is thinking about 20 PH, Cypress is thinking about 200.

[Jutarul]

Cypress does about a billion dollars of revenue a year. They specialize in niche markets that the big players don't dominate.

The CEO, TJ Rogers, is a hardline Libertarian.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cypress_Semiconductor

If AM is thinking about 20 PH, Cypress is thinking about 200.

For once I tend to agree with you. The higher the market cap of bitcoin, and the further the mining lags behind the price development of bitcoin, the larger the arbitrage opportunity, giving bigger hardware players a reason to get involved.

Bitcoin has been hijacked as a safe haven against the coming fiat currency crisis and this puts off all valuation attempts for bitcoin, since now the price becomes disconnected from the longterm value (as a safe haven bitcoin benefits from any short-term crisis).

As such the recent run-up in bitcoin price, albeit increasing the overall profitability of AM, has been a quite bearish development for AM in terms of bitcoin denominated share price since it invites for bigger and stronger competition, forcing AM to get a better stand as a niche player.

Having a stronger competition means that less of the future mining income will goto AM, which strengthens the argument that AM needs to find a strategy to add additional revenue streams. Simply reducing the overall cost structure won't cut it in the event of an escalating bitcoin price.

addendum: That said - I think there is a sweet spot for building a portfolio to hedge against various bitcoin price developments, i.e. a ratio between #bitcoins:#AMshares. The exact amount is likely dependent on the personal preference. At the current time a 1:2 ratio might be prudent, at a $4000/btc level a 1:1 ratio, at a $16000/btc level a 1:0.5 ratio.... you can comment on that and what you find appropriate...

addendum: The above is based on a current market evaluation of AM at 10% of mining revenue, giving AM a valuation of 800,000 btc. That makes the current AM shares rather cheap... I recommend loading up on them up to a point which you're comfortable with... (based on the ratio above)

[empoweoqwj]

Dividend prediction: 0.00151 BTC/share

I think it's better to spread the dividends steadily .

Better for who?...
If there is income from mining/sales that won't be needed for further investments/salary/hosting why would you withhold some of it and pay it a few weeks later?

If you don't want to miss the profit, then you should buy and hold shares now, and not wait until the sales are starting so you can jump in 'just in time'.

Probability says  shares will drop further. They have dropped 26 weeks in a row now ..... and there is no good news to come out for a month or two ... plus ever reducing dividends.

Says to me every likelihood share price will continue to drop for the next 2 months minimum, probably to 0.10 to 0.15 level

[conv3rsion]

addendum: The above is based on a current market evaluation of AM at 10% of mining revenue, giving AM a valuation of 800,000 btc. That makes the current AM shares rather cheap... I recommend loading up on them up to a point which you're comfortable with... (based on the ratio above)

I still have faith in Friedcat, but I do not see how it is possible to mine/sell/franchise an average of 10% of the network starting in 2.5 months using 40nm tech. My valuation of AM has always been based on this goal, and while I will never bet against Friedcat, it seems difficult to produce that much HW at this point.

[explorer]

addendum: The above is based on a current market evaluation of AM at 10% of mining revenue, giving AM a valuation of 800,000 btc. That makes the current AM shares rather cheap... I recommend loading up on them up to a point which you're comfortable with... (based on the ratio above)

I still have faith in Friedcat, but I do not see how it is possible to mine/sell/franchise an average of 10% of the network starting in 2.5 months using 40nm tech. My valuation of AM has always been based on this goal, and while I will never bet against Friedcat, it seems difficult to produce that much HW at this point.

If they can turn out enough self contained liquid cooled plug and play mining containers to deploy or franchise, I don't see how it could be a problem,  providing AM tech more or less keeps pace with the newcomers. Indeed, it is a very scalable model. How much hashing power is in one of those boxes? I bet it is staggering. Still, that is at least 3-4 months away from what I infer. 16 or so very lean weeks.

[Jutarul]

addendum: The above is based on a current market evaluation of AM at 10% of mining revenue, giving AM a valuation of 800,000 btc. That makes the current AM shares rather cheap... I recommend loading up on them up to a point which you're comfortable with... (based on the ratio above)

I still have faith in Friedcat, but I do not see how it is possible to mine/sell/franchise an average of 10% of the network starting in 2.5 months using 40nm tech. My valuation of AM has always been based on this goal, and while I will never bet against Friedcat, it seems difficult to produce that much HW at this point.

The competition leap frogged ahead using high cost hardware solutions. That gap should be closed with gen3 putting AM at least on par with for 2014. Of course it all depends on the competitiveness of gen3. which needs to be at least within a factor 2-4x efficiency and cost wise.

[JimiQ84]

if 40nm can do 0,2W/GH/s and $0,2/GH/S in simulation, imagine what could do 28nm in 2015 :-)

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

addendum: The above is based on a current market evaluation of AM at 10% of mining revenue, giving AM a valuation of 800,000 btc. That makes the current AM shares rather cheap... I recommend loading up on them up to a point which you're comfortable with... (based on the ratio above)

Jutarul, last time I was listening your advice : "for new investors it's great entry point to pay 2.50btc/share" ... i lost about 90% of my BTCs ... so yeah  


EDIT :
I agree that shares are undervalued at this moment IF we're assuming that AM will get 10%+ of the hash pie in Q1 2014 ... but its big IF ... 3-4 months are years in btc world and FC said in update, that he'll be rather sell chips as "safe bet" as self mining in AM farm ...

[Jutarul]

addendum: The above is based on a current market evaluation of AM at 10% of mining revenue, giving AM a valuation of 800,000 btc. That makes the current AM shares rather cheap... I recommend loading up on them up to a point which you're comfortable with... (based on the ratio above)

Jutarul, last time I was listening your recommendation : "for new investors it's great entry point to pay 2.50btc/share" ... i lost about 90% of my BTCs (100+) valuation ... so yeah  

Please provide a reference and a context. I never give out advise like that because investment decisions are highly subjective.

Also please distinguish between share market based valuation and other means to arrive at a company value. The share market right now values AM at 120,000 BTC. I assume that this discounts for operational expenses, development risks and uncertainty on how much market share AM can claim. The logic for the mixed portfolio I provided above can be applied to different valuation schemes. Obviously you need to tweak the numbers in way you're comfortable with. The point I was trying to make is that with increasing purchasing power of the bitcoin the company valuation has to shrink in terms of bitcoin for the reason I outlined.

What did you do with your shares? Did you sell them at a lower price or are you currently in a hold position?

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

Please provide a reference and a context. I never give out advise like that because investment decisions are highly subjective.

Also please distinguish between share market based valuation and other means to arrive at a company value. The share market right now values AM at 120,000 BTC. I assume that this discounts for operational expenses, development risks and uncertainty on how much market share AM can claim. The logic for the mixed portfolio I provided above can be applied to different valuation schemes. Obviously you need to tweak the numbers in way you're comfortable with. The point I was trying to make is that with increasing purchasing power of the bitcoin the company valuation has to shrink in terms of bitcoin for the reason I outlined.

What did you do with your shares? Did you sell them at a lower price or are you currently in a hold position?

For those of you who are wondering why I sold at 2.5. It's simple investor strategy - i.e. risk management. Holding bitcoins has a different risk exposure than holding dividend paying stocks. I still believe that 2.5 is a good entry level point for the right investors, simply due to the expected return.

I'm still desperate holding my shares with faith in ASICminer ... you know ... what else can I do It's pretty much all what I have after year and a half in bitcoin world and I have no other choice at this moment

[Jutarul]

For those of you who are wondering why I sold at 2.5. It's simple investor strategy - i.e. risk management. Holding bitcoins has a different risk exposure than holding dividend paying stocks. I still believe that 2.5 is a good entry level point for the right investors, simply due to the expected return.

I'm still desperate holding my shares with faith in ASICminer ... you know ... what else can I do It's pretty much all what I have after year and a half in bitcoin world and I have no other choice at this moment

It seems I have to watch my language more carefully. The "right" investor implied a subgroup of investors which had zero exposure to mining and wanted to enrich their portfolio in that way. I hope you still have enough bitcoin to counteract the illiquidity of AM.

[robix]

@Jutarul

Do you know anything about the status of the transfer of BF PT's to direct shares. Unfortunately it seems that no one wants to comment on this issue.

[Vycid]

@Jutarul

Do you know anything about the status of the transfer of BF PT's to direct shares. Unfortunately it seems that no one wants to comment on this issue.

The BF issue is a big reason I wouldn't even consider purchasing AM shares right now. There's almost certainly some illiquid shares still tied up in the former BF PT that will be sold as soon as they can get moved to Havelock (or just auctioned off as direct shares).

Beyond that, it's still priced a couple hundred percent above what I'd consider a value buy.

[Jutarul]

@Jutarul

Do you know anything about the status of the transfer of BF PT's to direct shares. Unfortunately it seems that no one wants to comment on this issue.

Unfortunately I don't have any new information. Last I heard was that Ukyo wanted to get a claims process started and submit the claimed addresses to friedcat in chunks... Is Ukyo silent?

[robix]

@Jutarul

Do you know anything about the status of the transfer of BF PT's to direct shares. Unfortunately it seems that no one wants to comment on this issue.

Unfortunately I don't have any new information. Last I heard was that Ukyo wanted to get a claims process started and submit the claimed addresses to friedcat in chunks... Is Ukyo silent?

Yes. Neo&Bee is now involved in any way somehow. Anyway thanks.

[SebastianJu]

finally friedcat replied me:

Hi kirawei,

We already stopped paying to g.asicminer.pt's dividend address. The former payments are recorded as credits. After the direct shares show up from g.asicminer.pt, we will pay all missing dividends along with that week's.

Best regards,

friedcat