Breaking: NYSE files a modification to another ETF, to be now called the Hashdex Bitcoin ETF Their application is unique in that it will not use Coinbase, they will use prices and acquire spot BTC via CME. It will hold a mixture of spot & futures positions Hard to reject imo  https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1695191068742934846 |
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 Amount liquidated in last 24 hours: One billion Amount liquidated in last 1 hour: $690 million I don't know where are you getting this information from, but according to https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData BTC liquidated positions in the last 24 hours are $0.5 billion. This is still much of course. Each time there is a crash I feel quite happy that all these losers feel remorseful that instead of buying real bitcoins, they were gambling with leveraged long positions. There is only one reasonable position and that is 1x long :p. Everything else is gambling with a 99.99% chance of loss. So, losers, instead of buying real coins, go place 100x long position. It is proven by math and science that the price won't go 1% lower and will shoot straight to 30K, making you billionaires. Go, go, go! #popcorntime |
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I feel like the SEC is still hostile to bitcoin and they won't approve a spot ETF. It is already clear that it is not about objective criteria, but about China-like fear of Bitcoin. Yep, Gary and his puppeteers Warren and Powell shit their pants off in fear what Bitcoin can do to the US bank system. Having said that, however, the only real chance is an outright verdict in favor of Greyscale. According to some insiders, it is very possible to happen this week. But these are only probabilistic assumptions. Since the first one for yesterday did not come true, articles appeared with funny titles such as "SEC Delays Ruling On Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF Application" and "Just-In: Court Postpones Grayscale Vs US SEC Verdict". In essence: the verdict will most likely be that the Grayscales were unfairly treated. It is much less likely that the court will oblige the SEC to accept the ETF. In all cases, the SEC will appeal and oppose the spot ETF to the end. They would even prefer to de-license futures ETFs rather than issue spot ETFs. However, if the SEC loses the case and the appeal, maybe Gary will go nuts and not dare to refuse the financial giants and we will have an ETF at the beginning of 2024. The other much more plausible option is if a pro-Bitcoin Republican wins the election and the SEC chairmanship is succeeded by crypto mom Hester Pierce.
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Come on guys, do you REALLY believe this pathetic sockpupet will give a spot ETF approval? I don't think so. Remember this hilarious moment not so long ago? SEC Chair Gary Gensler blamed crypto for Signature Bank's failure during his congressional testimony. NY Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris refuted that in front of the same committee stating "It is not the case that the failure of Signature was related to crypto" https://www.tiktok.com/@cryptobay.ltd/video/7224152371318754587 |
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I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.
tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.
I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever. <Snip>The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625 BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1 BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say. Quick prediction time - 2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000 2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000 While agreeing that it could happen, I am not sure that it would. Here is my reasoning: last cycle was "abnormally" timid (only a 3.45X swing over the previous ATH). Why? There could be two possibilities: one would be externalities, like China mining ban+ shenanigans of Celsius+Blockfi+FTX, plus exorbitant share printing by DCG; on the other hand, it could be just mechanics of the cycles, where each cycle causes less and less upward swing. Therefore, next cycle would be an interesting test and @LFC numbers suggest resumption of the 'strong' swings: 250K would be re-acceleration or rather continuation of the swing strength and 180K just a small decline to 2.6X. The current history of "swings" (from lows to highs) order goes like this: First halving-from $2 cycle low to $1160 high(580X); Second-from $175 low to $20K high (114X); Third-from $3.2K low to $69K high (21.5X); Fourth-from supposed $15.7 low to ? high. Unfortunately, if the "swing" reduction factor from prior cycle to the next would be the same, the next number in the sequence is roughly 4-5X, which is ONLY 63K-78.5K, which is terrible. I, myself, don't believe that we would be "dealt" such cruel cards, but whatever 'acceleration' mechanism could be in play, it is still to reveal itself. Personally, I think that the acceleration that makes @LFC numbers is possible, but would occur via realization of the potential in the realm of inscriptions. Imagine this: each sat could have some informational packet attached. This opens up virtually unlimited potential in the future. Heck, every single Apple share could be inscribed on 157 bitcoins maximum (only 0.00074% of all bitcoin while Apple is, by itself, corresponds to 7.4% of US total stock market cap). There is plenty of room in bitcoin for ALL property plus future asteroids, planets, etc, etc...and that is even without going to sub-sats. Think about this. The last cycle was characterized by many factors that are worth recalling. 1. The Covid panic of March 2020 crashed the price to 4K. A year or so later, it was already 65K. That's 16x growth! 2. The 65K price was not the result of speculation or euphoria, but of increased demand worldwide. It should be noted the price stayed in this range for months, which we did not have before. 3. Elon's tweets did serious damage and the first big drop to 30K was shocking to newbies. 4. However, within a few months due to the news of the futures ETF, the price surpassed the old ATH and reached 69K. Somewhere in there, the Chinese started panicking and spreading FUD news to hammer the price. By tradition, this gave result. Meanwhile, a huge percentage of bought bitcoins turned out to be FTX paper junk, which also had a negative effect. A whole bunch of institutions were dragged down like dominoes and the price hit the bottom of 15600. The question is, how far could Bitcoin have gone if it weren't for all this bad news. I think there would have been a peak of over 100K, with a cycle bottom in the 25-35K range. The next question is how far Bitcoin can go in 2025. In the worst case scenario - no ETF, with a ban from the US and China, the old ATH will be still easily overtaken. That means a peak above 100K most likely. Basically, there will be potential for 200K, but it's very likely that hypocrites like Gary, Warren and the fat banker will do everything to stop the growth. They are terrified of Bitcoin because it threatens their banking system, which rests solely on false trust. If people knew the truth the feds are hiding, they would immediately withdraw their money and buy bitcoins. But the common people like to be lied to with empty promises. On that note, I suspect puppet Garry's strings are being pulled by Warren and the fat one. So it is very likely that SEC will not give approval for the spot ETF. Whether this will lead to a return of the bear market remains to be seen. Nothing should be excluded. But there is still a long time until 2025, so I hope that the damage from these scavengers will be erased by then and we will enjoy new ATHs. |
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I am sure that even the biggest moron in the world won't dump his stash with all the good news around. Unless it's the US government, selling 8K Silk Road bitcoins for USD, which they can print indefinitely BTW.  Not to mention that in very near future with a pro bitcoin president, FEDs will have to back up USD with some Bitcoin reserves, which they will buy at prices probably way above 100K. Very clever indeed. Even if it is a fake tweet ( https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1682400915796422656), the concept remains true. |
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It's been like Groundhog Day movie for the last 2 weeks. It's just boring.  Hmmm, today is 14.07. Next pump/dump scheduled for 18.07 |
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Gensler was asked today in a webinar about Coinbase being at center of ETF filings. He couldn't comment on the filings but went pretty negative on crypto exchanges saying they operate "conflicting services" and have "limited risk monitoring" Here's full quote via @TheBlock__  https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1679238611407982593My reading on this is that Gary is still against a spot ETF, despite the SSA. I'm not a Coinbase lawer, but these accusations are not legit IMO. May be they are true for Binance and other non US exchanges, where wash trading and leverage manipulations are common. It seems that this SSA is just an annoyance for Gary, since it could easily lead to elimination of these practices in the whole US market. And some bankers and feds do not want that. They want to conitue dissing Bitcoin that it is used for illegal activities, thus defending the weakening US banks and USD. Clearly Gary is just a sockpuppet who doesn't have the guts to allow a spot ETF, unless he is forced by the court or more infuential senators or president candidates.  |
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The issue of ETFs is important both for the current year and for the next 2-3 years. If there is a rejection this summer, it is very likely that this year's bull market will end and we will return to the bear market until the effect of the halving is felt in 1 year. If accepted, it is possible to approach ATH already this year, i.e. to witness a unique bull cycle starting 1 year before the halving. It's clear that this is exactly why Blackrock wants to get in now, not when Bitcoin goes past 100K after the halving. It is still not clear, whether the SEC is ready to change its mind. The news from yesterday (or the other day) is that Cboe Refiles Spot Bitcoin ETFs Following Surveillance Agreement with Coinbase, i.e. the text "Expected to enter into an SSA" is replaced by such an agreement already entered into. Of course, Blackrock were the first with a ready SSA. https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/cboe-refiles-spot-bitcoin-etfs-following-surveillance-agreement-with-coinbase/Henceforth, the SEC has 2 sensible answers and 1 completely illogical one - the result of personal intrigues, political and financial influence, etc.: 1. Direct approval of all spot ETFs. The SEC can now feel victorious that they have brought Coinbase into some form of regulation, so this option is quite likely. 2. Indirect approval, subject to extending the scope of SSA. This means a requirement for the so-called pull actions i.e. the information-sharing agreement, under which the SEC will be able to request the personal data of those suspected of manipulations. I can only speculate here that Blackrock and the others would immediately enter into one, as long as Coinbase didn't object. Given that this will bode well for the stocks and help their future cooperation with the SEC, I believe that Coinbase has no basis for such a refusal. This topic is discussed in one article, but there is no comment from Blackrock et al.: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-application-takes-160452048.html3. Denial on grounds of manipulation and that most of the volume is in non-US exchanges. This, of course, is just a front behind which are the nefarious interests of certain high-ranking bankers, feds and politicians who are pulling clown Gary's strings. However, this behavior is becoming increasingly unlikely, especially if the Grayscale wins the case and is joined by Blackrock in the event of a refusal. As Jay Clayton said recently, it is becoming very difficult to sustain the SEC denial. So, the chances for an ETF approval are much higher now, than 2 months ago. And with a possible information-sharing agreement, IMO they would be over 90%. |
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It's been like Groundhog Day movie for the last 2 weeks. It's just boring. You think Groundhog Day movie is boring? Not as boring as any Star Wars movie. In what world did I say Groundhog Day movie was boring? Bill Murray is a great actor! All right, I have some time and explain like to a child/childish old man. His character is bored to live each day the same events watching these poor people doing exact same mistakes. It is obvious that I meant the price action which resembles the plot, not the movie itself. And to say this for Star Wars is just ridicoulous. And what is the connection between these two movies? I don't follow the logic. |
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It's been like Groundhog Day movie for the last 2 weeks. It's just boring. |
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It's been like Groundhog Day movie for the last 2 weeks. It's just boring. |
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JUST IN: BlackRock has re-filed for spot bitcoin ETF, the resubmission was dated 6/29, Nasdaq just posted tho. They just added Coinbase like everyone else. Here are the goods… They actually have agreement & term sheet. Not just “expecting to enter into SSA”.  https://twitter.com/NateGeraci/status/1675929147795709957 |
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IMO this surprising decision by the SEC actually means that these proposals will be accepted in the end. A bit of logical analysis is needed here. The main concern is that the SEC is only looking for excuses not to allow spot ETFs. There are plenty of reasons for this. In that case, they would not have done so. They would take their time and re-announce a whole list of problems that cannot be solved. Then it wouldn't matter if Blackrock et al. named the spot exchange and what the details of the surveilance agreement were. The fact that they want these details is something well known to those who write articles and submit to journals. This implies that the article will be accepted if the author corrects the errors and omissions! Logically, this means that if Blackrock et al. provide the necessary information which satisfies the requirements in principle, the proposals will be accepted! I thnk that now the demand for regulated Bitcoin trade via ETF's is so strong in USA, that the time for excuses from the SEC has passed. P.S. It seems that BTCsessions and I are on the same page: Every other ETF: SEC sits on hands and extends deadlines until they must respond, then rejects them. SEC to BlackRock after like 2 mins: "Hey buddy, looks like your application is not quite adequate. Here's some hot tips so that everything goes perfectly for ya!" https://twitter.com/BTCsessions/status/1674782661108445185 |
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