Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.

tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.

I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever.
<Snip>The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.

Quick prediction time -

2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000

While agreeing that it could happen, I am not sure that it would.
Here is my reasoning: last cycle was "abnormally" timid (only a 3.45X swing over the previous ATH).
Why? There could be two possibilities: one would be externalities, like China mining ban+ shenanigans of Celsius+Blockfi+FTX, plus exorbitant share printing by DCG; on the other hand, it could be just mechanics of the cycles, where each cycle causes less and less upward swing.

Therefore, next cycle would be an interesting test and @LFC numbers suggest resumption of the 'strong' swings: 250K would be re-acceleration or rather continuation of the swing strength and 180K just a small decline to 2.6X.

The current history of "swings" (from lows to highs) order goes like this:  First halving-from $2 cycle low to $1160 high(580X); Second-from $175 low to $20K high (114X); Third-from $3.2K low to $69K high (21.5X); Fourth-from supposed $15.7 low to ? high. Unfortunately, if the "swing" reduction factor from prior cycle to the next would be the same, the next number in the sequence is roughly 4-5X, which is ONLY 63K-78.5K, which is terrible. I, myself, don't believe that we would be "dealt" such cruel cards, but whatever 'acceleration' mechanism could be in play, it is still to reveal itself.

Personally, I think that the acceleration that makes @LFC numbers is possible, but would occur via realization of the potential in the realm of inscriptions.
Imagine this: each sat could have some informational packet attached. This opens up virtually unlimited potential in the future. Heck, every single Apple share could be inscribed on 157 bitcoins maximum (only 0.00074% of all bitcoin while Apple is, by itself, corresponds to 7.4% of US total stock market cap). There is plenty of room in bitcoin for ALL property plus future asteroids, planets, etc, etc...and that is even without going to sub-sats. Think about this.

The last cycle was characterized by many factors that are worth recalling.
1. The Covid panic of March 2020 crashed the price to 4K. A year or so later, it was already 65K. That's 16x growth!
2. The 65K price was not the result of speculation or euphoria, but of increased demand worldwide. It should be noted the price stayed in this range for months, which we did not have before.
3. Elon's tweets did serious damage and the first big drop to 30K was shocking to newbies.
4. However, within a few months due to the news of the futures ETF, the price surpassed the old ATH and reached 69K. Somewhere in there, the Chinese started panicking and spreading FUD news to hammer the price. By tradition, this gave result. Meanwhile, a huge percentage of bought bitcoins turned out to be FTX paper junk, which also had a negative effect. A whole bunch of institutions were dragged down like dominoes and the price hit the bottom of 15600.

The question is, how far could Bitcoin have gone if it weren't for all this bad news. I think there would have been a peak of over 100K, with a cycle bottom in the 25-35K range.

The next question is how far Bitcoin can go in 2025. In the worst case scenario - no ETF, with a ban from the US and China, the old ATH will be still easily overtaken. That means a peak above 100K most likely. Basically, there will be potential for 200K, but it's very likely that hypocrites like Gary, Warren and the fat banker will do everything to stop the growth. They are terrified of Bitcoin because it threatens their banking system, which rests solely on false trust. If people knew the truth the feds are hiding, they would immediately withdraw their money and buy bitcoins. But the common people like to be lied to with empty promises. On that note, I suspect puppet Garry's strings are being pulled by Warren and the fat one. So it is very likely that SEC will not give approval for the spot ETF. Whether this will lead to a return of the bear market remains to be seen. Nothing should be excluded. But there is still a long time until 2025, so I hope that the damage from these scavengers will be erased by then and we will enjoy new ATHs.

[1714208535]

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[1714208535]

1714208535

[1714208535]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

A streak of three is enough, bud.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

Lovely summer day to do some yard work...



GO BITCOIN

Love ya Buddy!  You and me always make the best sarnies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Copetech]

I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.

tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.

I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever.
<Snip>The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.

Quick prediction time -

2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000

While agreeing that it could happen, I am not sure that it would.
Here is my reasoning: last cycle was "abnormally" timid (only a 3.45X swing over the previous ATH).
Why? There could be two possibilities: one would be externalities, like China mining ban+ shenanigans of Celsius+Blockfi+FTX, plus exorbitant share printing by DCG; on the other hand, it could be just mechanics of the cycles, where each cycle causes less and less upward swing.

Therefore, next cycle would be an interesting test and @LFC numbers suggest resumption of the 'strong' swings: 250K would be re-acceleration or rather continuation of the swing strength and 180K just a small decline to 2.6X.

The current history of "swings" (from lows to highs) order goes like this:  First halving-from $2 cycle low to $1160 high(580X); Second-from $175 low to $20K high (114X); Third-from $3.2K low to $69K high (21.5X); Fourth-from supposed $15.7 low to ? high. Unfortunately, if the "swing" reduction factor from prior cycle to the next would be the same, the next number in the sequence is roughly 4-5X, which is ONLY 63K-78.5K, which is terrible. I, myself, don't believe that we would be "dealt" such cruel cards, but whatever 'acceleration' mechanism could be in play, it is still to reveal itself.

Personally, I think that the acceleration that makes @LFC numbers is possible, but would occur via realization of the potential in the realm of inscriptions.
Imagine this: each sat could have some informational packet attached. This opens up virtually unlimited potential in the future. Heck, every single Apple share could be inscribed on 157 bitcoins maximum (only 0.00074% of all bitcoin while Apple is, by itself, corresponds to 7.4% of US total stock market cap). There is plenty of room in bitcoin for ALL property plus future asteroids, planets, etc, etc...and that is even without going to sub-sats. Think about this.

The last cycle was characterized by many factors that are worth recalling.
1. The Covid panic of March 2020 crashed the price to 4K. A year or so later, it was already 65K. That's 16x growth!
2. The 65K price was not the result of speculation or euphoria, but of increased demand worldwide. It should be noted the price stayed in this range for months, which we did not have before.
3. Elon's tweets did serious damage and the first big drop to 30K was shocking to newbies.
4. However, within a few months due to the news of the futures ETF, the price surpassed the old ATH and reached 69K. Somewhere in there, the Chinese started panicking and spreading FUD news to hammer the price. By tradition, this gave result. Meanwhile, a huge percentage of bought bitcoins turned out to be FTX paper junk, which also had a negative effect. A whole bunch of institutions were dragged down like dominoes and the price hit the bottom of 15600.

The question is, how far could Bitcoin have gone if it weren't for all this bad news. I think there would have been a peak of over 100K, with a cycle bottom in the 25-35K range.

The next question is how far Bitcoin can go in 2025. In the worst case scenario - no ETF, with a ban from the US and China, the old ATH will be easily overtaken. That means a peak above 100K most likely. Basically, there will be potential for 200K, but it's very likely that hypocrites like Gary, Warren and the fat banker will do everything to stop the growth. They are terrified of Bitcoin because it threatens their banking system, which rests solely on false trust. If people knew the truth the feds are hiding they would immediately withdraw their money and buy bitcoins. But the common people like to be lied to with empty promises. On that note, I suspect puppet Garry's strings are being pulled by Warren and the fat one. So it is very likely that SEC will not give approval for the spot ETF. Whether this will lead to a return of the bear market remains to be seen. Nothing should be excluded. But there is still a long time until 2025, so I hope that the damage from these scavengers will be erased by then and we will enjoy new ATHs.

Here! Take them! Take them all!

[Negotiation]

Lovely summer day to do some yard work...



GO BITCOIN

Love ya Buddy!  You and me always make the best sarnies.

Lovely day dud with tea...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[2Pizza410000BTC]

Bitcoin is the best assets in the world. it's 14 years life history it increasing 20037142%

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

The reason for my post should be seen in context, and philip has frequently repeated his nonsense that bitcoin is likely going to show broken incentives in around 2050/2060 because the mining rewards are going to be so low that miners are not going to want to mine bitcoin and they will be incentivized to mine POW shitcoins such as litecoin and doggie coin.. and saying dumb shit like that.. so I am reinforcing his dumb ideas through my post.

Bitcoin will grow much more in price then. The block reward will be 0.02441406 in 2052. Currently, the miners getting around $187K for a block; who knows what will be the bitcoin price in 2052? Maybe 0.0244 won't be worth $187K. Maybe this is what he is fearing.

my fear is second layer will not be fixed properly.

if a block is 0.0244 btc and it is worth 244,000 that would mean a coin is 10 million.

the smallest fee is about 227 sats. so the smallest you pay for a fee is. $ 227

This means btc will need tweaks to work.

I am not going to get into miners growing and growing to protect btc.

but if coins are 10 million and say 20.5 million are mined we have a cap of

205 million at ten bucks
2050 million at one hundred bucks
20.500  billion at one thousand
205.00 billion at ten thousand
2.0500 trillion at 100 thousand
20.500 trillion at 1 million
205.00 trillion at 10 million

so a you want lots of miners to protect 205 trillion

lets say gear does 5 watts in 2056 much like cars and miles per gallon there is a limit to how low watts a miner uses.

so if gear does 30 now  the same amount of units and power the diff jumps to 320 trillion but no extra value  
to the entire network’s infrastructure.

mining infrastructure must grow to protect the new higher cap.

make it stagnant and the value of the cap is poorly protected.

so if market cap is 550 billion and grows to 200 trillion by 2052.

miner infrastructure of 10 billion  should be. 4 trillion

55 to 1 . coin to gear now.

50 to 4 coin to gear in the future.

roughly 400 to 1 more infrastructure and 6 to 1 efficient means diff is not 6x it is 2400x

right now we burn  about 10,000 megawatts an hour.

we are not going to scale to 24,000,000 megawatts.

just one problem.

and if cold fusion works and we have that much power why spend it mining a vanishing coin

when ltc/doge is designed to never vanish.

BTW This is why JJG always attacks me as he knows that long term on paper right now.

LTC/Doge has a better design than BTC.

but beta was said to be better than vhs.

So BTC can still prevail.

I stack more BTC than Doge and LTC.

[Hueristic]

my fear is second layer will not be fixed properly
{snip crap}
when ltc/doge is designed to never vanish.

BTW This is why JJG always attacks me as he knows that long term on paper right now.

LTC/Doge has a better design than BTC.

but beta was said to be better than vhs.

So BTC can still prevail.

I stack more BTC than Doge and LTC.

Fuck Phil you keep spewing this bullshit about your shitcoins, don't you realize by now your the only one that believes that bullshit?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

..... Doge and LTC.

Fuck Phil you keep spewing this bullshit about your shitcoins, don't you realize by now your the only one that believes that bullshit?

Remember when all the shitcoins were named  <random stupid word>coin?  You know like peniscoin, twatcoin, bollockscoin...that sort of thing.
Nowadays they are all some assanine made up one word. All the <stupidword>coin named shitcoins have gone out of vogue.
But fun fact...
the lone 2 surviving legacy <stupidword>coins in top 20 are....

wait for it.............   (batslap guard activated)


Doge and LTC.