this condensed nature is precisely the problem with POS. as i understand it looking back in this thread, NXT is highly concentrated amongst it's early adopters which is the opposite of what you want. i fail to see how this improves with time; in fact, it should only get worse the way that forging works.
the worse scenario can get much worse; as in going to zero.
Anything can go to zero, there is no insurance against that, only taxes can't  The argument of distribution in NXT is beaten to death already. You can think of NXT distribution as having 2 stages: Stage 1 - initial distribution to 73 people. Stage 2 - is ongoing and will take years to unfold. Original stakeholders have been selling for almost 9 months, otherwise where would all the coins on the market come from?  They need to cash out, they won't hold forever, just like in Bitcoin early adopters cash out. In the end, all currencies tend to follow Pareto Principle, where 80% of the coins end up in the hands of 20% people. That works in real life, there is no reason it will be different with crypto currencies. |
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you're using hard #'s as if there is no such thing as confidence, panic, or public perception.
Bter knows it. which is why they negotiated with the terrorist hacker.
with POW, we took the Gox hit but it didn't kill Bitcoin b/c of the resource investment of miners who can't and won't just quit. not to mention the network effect in place.
I tried to give enough room for all those factors and posted a worst case scenario. The fact is NXT community is still pretty condensed compared to Bitcoin and there is simply no public perception and not much public to dump coins in case of panic, which is both a blessing and a curse. There's been a few serious bugs in the past few months that were quite serious and would probably make Bitcoin users dump if they were to happen in Bitcoin network, however, NXTers are not that dispersed yet. Another factor is, the price is already so low that it doesn't take much capital to absorb dumped coins. That's why even in the worst case scenario it wouldn't have much effect. 5% of the total coin supply doesn't let the hacker control anything except the price for a while, 51% is required now to control the network and 90% in a few months when Transparent Forging is enabled. But I agree that centralized exchanges are no good, that's why NXT is implementing decentralized tools - multigateway is one of them, it is not 100% decentralized, but it would require hacker to break into 3 servers controlled by 3 different people, instead of just 1 server as is the case with a centralized exchange. |
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Well, I am posting a worst case scenario.
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Bitcoin chart looks the same, if you choose the convenient period, let's say, from December to now  |
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of course it's quite possible if Bter didn't do it, the price of all NXT on the market would be 0.
It would stay depressed at 4-5k satoshi for 2-3 months if he chose to sell in equal portions (1m each day), that's how long it would take for the market to absorb 50M volume. If he chose to sell all in one go, it would go to 100-200 satoshi for a few hours, buying 50m NXTs at 500 satoshi takes only 250 Bitcoins, that's about daily volume of NXT trading. So all the 50m would be quickly bought within 1 day, that's rough calculations, give or take a few hours. Gradual selling over 2-3 months would hurt more because it'd be more prolonged bleeding, but not dramatic either. |
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You don't even need a derivative market (although that is another way to leverage the nothing at stake problem). You have some coins in block x, you sell the coins, you now have nothing however you can re-org the chain back from block x. Why? Although you have nothing "now" in the past back at block x you did have something. You are attacking with the "memory" or history of coins.
First you must secure $50 bln. (as in $50 000 000 000) funding to buy enough stake. Then you can try. apparently it only costs 200BTC, or approx $100,000, to buy 45M NXT. not quite the same maths. Apparently yes, if you're a hacked exchange and the hacker is willing to sell, which is two big 'IFs'. |
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That's a pretty decent list but I'd take out LTC/Doge. I'm also uncertain about NXT due to the recent troubles.
Considering that it will take them forever to make Etherum (2 years is a long time here), it feels like it was an IPO scam. XMR and DRK crashed hard in these troublesome times.
The safest bet will always be Bitcoin.
I didn't notice you were certain about NXT before the 'troubles' either Bitcoin is the safest bet is an illusion, soon to become clear not just to a few. |
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I used to be a believer in NXT but the community started to become jerks.
Big girls don't cry. |
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$600 is likely in December.
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i am always right, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down!
Yup, and if the trend reverses, just change the username to risiiing and you'll be right again  |
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Itching to dump, aren't you? Proper testing can take months, or weeks at best. You don't want a half-assed AE launched, do you? |
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One good application is to resell amazon (and other web stores) gift cards that you can buy with paypal. That way you can convert your paypal to NXTs.
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How many mazacoins for a beaver skin? I need a hat.
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Right. Because history of the blockchain cannot be rewritten, except when there is a technical flaw in software. This is one of primary laws of crypto currencies. OP, please correct your article with these facts if you need to.
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Tiny correction, in NXT developers don't decide to rollback anything even if they wanted to, in NXT stakeholders who forge with their stakes decide. That's why it's called a Proof-of-Stake crypto.
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Shop till you drop |
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There are things that are "too big to fail", but Litecoin isn't one of them.
What about Bitcoin? Is it too big to fail? |
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everything tied to bitcoin will die, litecoin being the "second most famous" will not save it, and with asic it was clear like the sun, and lol at the one who bought them, hope they made roi at least...
i don't think there a place for a second coin in the cryptoworld
You may have a rude awakening in a while |
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Looks like NXT recovered nicely from the BTER debacle. Definitely a good sign for its longevity!
Yeah, problem is, there is no good well tested exchange with liquidity to buy it from now. |
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You've got to ask yourself why would a group that was sitting on a revolutionary breakthrough in crypto-currency shoot themselves in the foot with a scam.
One possible explanation is there was infighting.
But I find the more plausible explanation to be they were smart enough to realize one-time ring signatures don't scale, and thus it was going no where in the end.
I'm not surprised how many people have rationalized away this fact for Monero. Investment pumps just need cheerleading.
So what is the scam about? Does the code not work in all CN coins? Does the code not do what it's supposed to do? Creating a few coins can actually be a good idea, because yes, CN doesn't scale, so people will choose the CN flavor to their liking, which will keep each individual blockchain smaller. Win-win for all. All CN coins are about the same, except for inflationary rate and some have merge mining capabilities. Apart from those, what's the difference between them? |
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