An investment professional who can't do accounting-math. Just what we need more of around here, congratulations.
Everyone makes mistakes from time to time. I don't expect you to be perfect either. The important part is that I not only acknowledged the error, but corrected it as well  And for the record, I never made mention of myself as a professional..that would imply I do this for a living. I'm a well-versed amateur with a strong sense for business operations and a heavy background in tech  |
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So, based on the 27 units example above, estimated profit would be 5.7BTC? not counting possible bonuses/fluctuations?
[....]
Oh no!! You seem to be exactly right. I created an excel sheet to calculate it out and I came up with the same answer, which has me a bit concerned given my previous statements. When I originally did my quick calculations, I did it on straight addition...meaning if you have 1 Note and you keep that 1 Note the entire time, then you'll have X% ROI because month #1 + 2 + 3 = whatever %% total. The reality is that I needed to take a weighted average to get a proper ROI based on the current buyback program, which is [currently] a flat 25% from everyone at a time. If the program was more of a 'round robin' approach, then my original statement would still be somewhat valid. Thank you for pointing out this huge flaw Aahzman. I will update my original projections and the update section accordingly, noting the differences. |
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Thanks for the analysis again Korbman.
It contained some numbers I was looking for for my own models.
I think my math is pretty close to yours again.
good to see.
I'm glad I see people still taking a look at it! I'll have to do another update near the end of November right before ASICs ship...the closer we get to that time, the more accurate I think I can get. |
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Something that I didn't see mentioned but may have missed...is there any risk due to BTC/USD price changes? I'm assuming that BTC will have to be sold to purchase the rigs, so there is probably some risk there. Will dividends then be paid using the BTC mined once the rigs are online? I just want to make sure that there won't be a situation where you need to purchase BTC to make the interest payments or buybacks but can't because BTC prices have shot up to some crazy number like $50/BTC. I think that sort of situation impacted some earlier mining companies when they planned on getting $2/BTC forever and then BTC jumped to $5/BTC.
Thanks!
Ah, yes this did actually come up before, but it was in my old thread. It's good that it was asked here as well!  Thankfully, the Fund is solely in Bitcoins. Butterfly Labs allows for purchases through Bitcoins as well, which cuts out the exchanges and the need to transfer money back and forth. That said, technically there is still risk. Say I had 3,000 Bitcoins. At the price right now, I could buy a Mini Rig for around 2,800 BTC...but if the price suddenly plummets to $2 a coin, that BTC price goes up to 15,000. Of course, the opposite could also happen..say if the ratio went up to $30 a coin, I suddenly could buy a Rig with only 1,000 BTC instead. Once the equipment is purchased, the price fluctuations shouldn't have much of an effect on overall revenues and mining operations. If there is ever a need for me to purchase more BTC to make payments, it means I'm not doing something right |
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If I understand you correctly, starting in March, you will be buying back 25% of everyone notes, rounding up, every month until December. The rounding up part will 'shake-out' so to speak, those noteholders with a really low volume. According to my calculations, I will need to purchase a minimum of 27 notes to make it to the Dec buyback. Here's a chart illustrating the buyback month along with the number of notes required to make it to that buyback month. | Month | Notes
Req,d | Monthly
Return | | March | 1 | 2% | | April | 2 | 2% | | May | 3 | 2% | | June | 4 | 2% | | July | 6 | 2% | | Aug | 8 | 2% | | Sept | 11 | 4% | | Oct | 15 | 4% | | Nov | 20 | 4% | | Dec | 27 | 6% |
My first 10 notes, I will only ever make 2%/month over 6 months plus buyback of 1.10/note. My next 16 notes, I will only ever make 4%/month over 3 months plus buyback of 1.15/note. My 27th and remaining notes, I will make 6%/month over 1 month plus buyback of 1.20/note. That about right? Exactly, you seem to be right on track and the math looks good. Remember, however, that the Fund is scaleable. Meaning if I only raise, say, 1,000 BTC by the end of December, the financials will look different than if 10,000 BTC are raised. This is because the buyback rate would fluctuate to maintain a stable "bottom line" (ensuring the account never goes negative). At the 10,000 BTC cap, a 25% buyback per month rate mathematically works flawlessly. At 1,000, however, the rate would need to be 15% instead to achieve the same stability. The lower percentage is a direct result of revenue not being as high (with 1,000 BTC, I would be purchasing Singles instead of Rigs). At 1,000 BTC, it's quite a bit more financially feasible to purchase back 15% per month compared to 25%. For example, at 25%, the bottom line looks like:  At 15%, on the other hand, the bottom line is:  |
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Forgive me if this question is answered somewhere else in the thread. I couldn't see it.
Can you explain in more detail how you will decide which buyback period any particular note will be bought back in?
I notice you made reference briefly to 'the largest noteholders' lasting the longest. Does this mean the more notes you buy the longer you will have to wait for the larger return? What if I want out in the first buyback period? or the last? As a noteholder, will I have a choice?, or are you choosing randomly?
Not a problem, I'll answer as best I can So, at the beginning of March I'm currently set to purchase back 25% of existing Notes. If all 10,000 Notes are in investor hands, that means 2,500 Notes will be bought back at that time (leaving 7,500 outstanding). With that in mind, let's say you own 10 Notes and another investor owns 100. During the first month, I would purchase back 3 Notes from you (since you can't do partial Notes, it has to be rounded up) and 25 Notes from the other investor. After that one month, you'll have 7 Notes remaining, and the other will have 75. The next month is the same thing..except this time I purchase back 2 from you and 19 from the other, leaving you with 5 and them with 56. After that, it goes 2 from you and 14 from them (3 and 42 left respectively), then 1 from you and 11 from them (2 and 31 left) ...then 1 from you and 8 from them (1 and 23 left)..and finally your last Note is purchased back while 6 from the other investor, leaving them with 17 left. In this example, the investor with 100 Notes outlasted you who only had 10, technically meaning they "lasted longer". I think I explained all that correctly haha That said, at this time, Havelock doesn't currently have a way for Fund Managers to force a buyback, though I am working with the Site Owner on various ways to implement this. Once a system is implemented, it may be that I can customize the way I purchase Notes back. So if, for example, you wanted to pull all your Notes out during a particular month I might be able to fulfill your request..but that largely depends on how many Notes you currently have (Pulling out 2000 Notes for one particular person might not work financially). I'm more than happy to work with Investors on their individual needs though! Did that help? |
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Excellent work! You used two of my favorite things when writing up an article; Math and Proof of Work! I actually didn't know there was such a disparity between device wattage of BFL, Avalon, etc. I'm sure I've seen it around, but it just never stuck with me. I'm glad to see everything compiled into one doc! |
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Graph goes up, Graph goes down.
"You can't explain that" -- Bill O'Reilly  |
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Meanwhile when I lived in Florida a while back and we had 3 hurricanes in the span of a month, they were like, "Oh, you had a few rain storms, that's too bad..."
And if I hear another person on the news or radio say that this is the worst storm to ever hit the US again I'm gonna choke someone.
There's a slight disparity here...Florida (as well as the gulf coast / southern east coast in general) has infrastructure in place to deal with such circumstances. New York and New Jersey, on the other hand, do not. Therefore when high winds and heavy rain hit, they get fucked. Sandy essentially cock slapped the Tristate area. It's the same thing between earthquake prone and non-prone areas...if a high magnitude quake rocks a place that normally doesn't get one, it'll be vastly more devastating than if that same quake hit an area that has one every other day. So yes, it is one of the worst storms to hit the US...they base their rankings on not only lives lost, but total damage done in $$$ amounts. |
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He doesn't have to be an employee of BFL to regurgitate information that has been made public knowledge. Now stop being an ass.
Yeah, you're probably right. I'm just tired of hearing the saaaammmeeeee thing in every thread I read.  |
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Guess what, they don't have one.
Ah I see. As an employee, you must have intimate knowledge of their processes to make such an astute statement, correct? Oh, what's that? You don't work for the company? Instead, you have felt the need to add nothing of importance to the current conversation?  Yeah, that makes more sense... |
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Anybody in the Tristate area get hit particularly hard?
It got windy up here in Vermont, but that's about it...bit of rain, but no power outage.
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.. am I the only one who see something like this while reading any of the BFL threads?
And sorry for off topic, I could not take it anymore.
yep, looks like you have a nasty case of Troll-bite there. Hold on and I'll suck out the worst of the poison, but you will have complete the healing process yourself... FACT: Several other manufacturers and BFL have been producing mining equipment starting last year and early this year. FACT: BFL had significant delays, and a 4x difference in projected and actual power utilization, even after shipping started it remained slow for some time. FACT: BFL started taking preorders back in July, some folks have been waiting on them since then, impatiently FACT: BFL stated initially that they would be shipping October, and at some point updated that to October/November. FACT: BFL updated their unit to be more competetive, and has blamed some of their challenges on this FACT: BFL has not yet made any statements that shipping would not begin before the end of November. They have told BitCoin Magazine that they would be shipping late in November, but they have never said they would start in December. FACT: BFL has stated an intention to ship all preorders through September "by the end of the year" (IIRC, not sure about when they made the statement, thought it was early October) FACT: BFL has invested in (new/upgraded) board level fabrication and assembly tools for use in batches after the first one FACT: BFL has Millions of dollars in preorders, outside investors watching them, and huge community pressure to deliver on time and in spec Supposition: BFL is very motivated to succeed, are not likely to take off with the money, and will in fact deliver a product, within their October/November timeframe, or tell us that they are missing it. Until we hear that they are shipping or delayed we get to wait. Some folks are not so good at waiting, so if you notice someone saying in the 35th thread that BFL is a scam and are stealing all the money, just hit the little link under their name that says "ignore" and get on with it. If something bad enough to really get concerned about happens, you will see reputable posters talking about it quickly enough. (If anyone sees errors above or has updated information, please let me know and I'll update the post.) +1 +2  +3, totally agree +4. Cool facts. Thanks. +5, Fantastically stated. |
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Uh huh sure it is. Your plan here somehow produces two thirds as much money as is required to pay for two machines. The operating costs on these things even if you rent $800 a month space to place them in paying $200 on electricity giving you $1000 outlay this gives you a 40 month "cushion". Anyone who believes that load of BS can PM me I have bridge in Brooklyn for sale going so cheap I'm virtually giving it away.
Given your conspiracy theories, I gather you may not have taken a look at my financials, the equations associated with them, or read through the company agreements as well. You may also message me for any required information, or download them off my website. After reading these documents, my hope is that you can gain a broad overview of information regarding: - Overall Business Plan
- Company Overhead
- Income, Expenses, and what a Cushion means
- Note Maturity, types of Debt Securities and Debentures, and causes for short term debt
- Interest and Principal payments, the associated scheduling, and Profit Sharing
- Importance and Legality of Company Agreements
Based off the information I've already written up, you would understand that your argument isn't mathematically possible. |
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Everyone, please buy Avalons.
kthxbye
Coming from a guy with a bASIC ad in this sig |
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Hi,
just thinked to that,
when 21 millions BTC will be reached, the price will x2 or /2 ?
I think it'll double but i'm not sure.
What's your opinion ?
Thanks
Fully depends on the implementation of Bitcoin over the next few decades. The more people that want them, or the more services/products that can be purchased with Bitcoins, the higher the price is going to be in the long run....i.e. High demand, low supply = higher price |
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I have cut my current market cap from 50,000 to 10,000 Notes, which will allow for the purchase of 2 Mini Rigs.
10,000BTC @$10=$100,000 2x minirig $29,899=$59,798 Left over $40,202/cost of rigs*100=67.23% markup. This is called a Liquidity (Financial) Cushion. |
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