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What is this gap you are speaking of? Is it the missing data feed from bitstamp on bitcoinity?
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Trading requires a lot of discipline, and experience. You have to know how to properly guage momentum, read indicators, calculate targets, follow indicators for your closing trade, set stoplosses, improvise, make quick judgements, and accept defeat. Most people don't have any background in trading and do not use one of these components, and so they fail. Therefore they think trading is 'rigged' or 'futile'.
One guidance that professional traders use is that they only have to be right about the direction of the trade about 30% of the time and they will still come out ahead as long as they are cutting their losses and letting their winners run.
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Don't ever say "Never"  Trading is a losing game. You sell because you need liquidity to by things you need. You sell because you wish to re-balance your portfolio. You don't sell "to rebuy lower". Please do not say this as a global assertion just because it applies to you personally and to inexperienced traders. There are actually people who are very effective at trading. Not trading may be what is right.. for you, but not for everyone. |
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It's not all about the percentage of the drop: It's also
-Volume
-Volatility
-How confident you are that this is in fact the top
-How many trading opportunities you will see during the volatility. You don't just have to trade once. You can trade multiple times with all that volatility. During the crashes of April and November I daytraded rapidly, multiplying my coins by 400-1000% within a week.
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My new view of the market:  I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year. I wouldn't be surprised to see that you're fucking wrong for the 10th time. Remember your case-in-point during October? Anyone who thinks bitcoin is staying 500 for a year is delusional. You're not fooling anyone. This actually could have happened if it weren't for china. |
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A belief that BTC will once be 1000 dollars again. A belief that NMC will rise above 8 dollars and shine. Why is this happening to us? Why are we being ripped off of our money?
The answer is that all of these high prices were reached unnaturally due to China and their shadow currency trading market. Without China, they would have never happened even with all this good news. You should have never seen the prices and if you didn't, then you wouldn't be feeling this pain. There is hope to see it again though: Look for developments in New York, particularly new exchanges. |
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If you were watching Huobi tonight you'd see it began with a wall about 5,000K BTC high, and then there was 20,000BTC of buying, and then it ended with a wall about 4,000BTC high. The wall keeps regenerating.
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It's becuase of a subject we don't even know about yet probably.
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Does anyone else think this trend looks similar to the pre-gox-failure trend in the 800s where it kept hitting 820? I can't be the only one...
Yep but unlikely to follow through without go... sorry I mean Huobi closing  What news could come now that's worse than Gox? Well if this TA was actually valid (I'm not saying it definitely is) then I think the idea is that you know that some type of event is going to reveal itself eventually because there is this persistent invisible wall at a low level where someone is distributing based on inside information, and while the whole market is bullish as hell, they keep bouncing off of this insider wall. |
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Does anyone else think this trend looks similar to the pre-gox-failure trend in the 800s where it kept hitting 820? I can't be the only one...  |
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Huobi blows its load of volume into the upper trendline as an orgasm of trains and rockets appears on the forum. Seems familiar. What happens next?
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I hate huobi. Why is it on the order book I can see 200CNY of the ask side but only 30 CNY of the bid side.
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I suppose bitcoin could be priced against gold, or oil.
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^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.
In 2014 the spike down was from 440 to 340. It rebounded and the consolidation is here now. I am referring to the first spike down that occured AFTER the reversal 2013: 66 ->105 -> THE SPIKE=80 ->100 ->100->100->100->100 consolidating at high of spike 2014: 340->540-> THE SPIKE=420 ->440->440->440->440->440 consolidating at low of spike OK. I understand you. But the spike to 80 didn't rebound to 100 immediately. It rose steady in a diagonal line for 2 weeks . |
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My new view of the market:
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see that you're fucking wrong for the 10th time. Remember your case-in-point during October?
Anyone who thinks bitcoin is staying 500 for a year is delusional. You're not fooling anyone. Yes I could be wrong. My type of assertion is 'I wouldn't be suprised' and you don't see me placing any bets do you. And why do you think I'm trying to 'fool' someone? What motive could I possibly have for claiming the market will be flat? You drew a flat line back in October 2013, and you drew a flat line now, have you ever asked yourself that in order for your prediction to be so dead wrong back then, that there must be some personal bias, or fundamentals that you've yet to grasp? Here's a question: what makes you think prices will flatline around 500, with the huge out turn of adoption news capped off by a possible exchange or two opening in the US? I'm thinking of a slow transfer of wealth between China and government/hacker/gox coins to the new adopters in the west. There are a ton of huge blocks of coins floating around in the market that have been unaccounted for and alot of it probably needs to be sold. However, it is apparent now that they are in no rush to 'dump' and cause a price drop. So it'll be a slow grind as all the coins are bought out at current rates. ^That's my funadmental-based in speculations. In charting terms, I see a lot of negative indicators on the weekly chart. We are about to go below the weekly ichimoku cloud even. However, the fundamentals of bitcoin are bullish. So the bullish investors counteracting against the bearish chart = flat. In 2013 I didn't know what I was doing. There weren't even any negative indicators on the chart then. It was completely bullish, and I was just drawing random lines. |
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^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.
In 2014 the spike down was from 440 to 340. It rebounded and the consolidation is here now. I am referring to the first spike down that occured AFTER the reversal 2013: 66 ->105 -> THE SPIKE=80 ->100 ->100->100->100->100 consolidating at high of spike 2014: 340->540-> THE SPIKE=420 ->440->440->440->440->440 consolidating at low of spike |
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Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned Predicting that a short term dip will occur but then rebound all the way back up and then reach new highs is 'the end of the world'. #bitcointhings Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.
And you just realized that ? I've never been called 'permabear' before. That is supposed to be people who don't think that btc will ever rise again and is a bad long term investment. People like Fonzie. |
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^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.
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Chart or not, adoption makes it go up, circle, bitpay, the amsterdam conference are bullish news.
You're a full-time bear.
I get your analysis, but not everything can be seen in price charts. I know it's a debate that has been discussed a lot, but bitcoin is not like any other assets.
Btw, we are not following the 2011 pattern imho, nor the 2013, but starting a new, unknow pattern.
I dont think that OP had given a fundamental analyse. Looks like pretty technical to me.
So i wonder why you always try to be off subject?
Looks like double standards for bulls and "bears" when participating in discussions again. |
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