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1181  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2019/20 on: October 28, 2019, 05:24:49 PM
Is it real, only 3 points difference between first place team and 7th place team! To put in other words:
Difference between 1st and 3rd placed team in PL right now: 8 points
Difference between 1st and 12th placed team in Laliga right now: 7 points!
Who says Premier League is the most competitive league in Europe. This season both LaLiga and Bundesliga are on fire! Won't be easy for Barcelona to win this time. One defeat and table will shuffle faster than the collapsing of sand dunes.
1182  Economy / Gambling / Re: Idea Validation ⭐⭐ BETTING TIPS ⭐⭐ on: October 28, 2019, 05:10:42 PM
Which site do you use to bet?
I am interested and would like to know more. Contact me at @webtricky on Telegram if you use Telegram.
1183  Economy / Economics / Re: The Economic Analysis of Demand for Bitcoin on: October 28, 2019, 02:14:18 PM
1. Transactions Motive
...
According to my analysis, higher the value of X, longer the person will hold bitcoin.

It might be helpful to show your analysis. It is not clear how your conclusion is related to the transactions motive.

Higher the value of X, more willing will be the people to postpone their expenditures. Excluding necessities, let's say I visit cinema hall to watch movie on 15th of every month but the prices of bitcoins fall 30% from the day I received till the date of my movie visit. Then, I may not spend my bitcoins for transaction motive and rather hold those. Thus X is additional factor that impact bitcoin's spending on transaction motive which is not present in case of money.

Quote
2. The Precautionary Motive

Many unforeseen and unpredictable contingencies involving money payments occur in our day to day life. Thus people keep a portion of their income to meet such unanticipated expenditures. ...

It seems to me that this is just an extension of #1 with a longer time frame and some uncertainty.

Yes, it is!
Keynes regarded the precautionary balances just as balances under transactions motive as income elastic and by itself not very sensitive to rate of interest.
Except that, both motives are quite similar.

Quote
3. Speculative Demand for Money

To analyse the Speculative demand for money, Keynes has taken two factors into consideration:
...
When the current interest rate is more than the critical interest rate, people convert all their money into securities because:
...
On the contrary, if the current rate of interest is lower than the critical rate, people will convert all their securities into cash.
...

"All" is an exaggeration. The fact that all is not converted means that the actual effect can be quite different from your narrative.


Yeah! In Keynes's classic example, he talked about cash on one side and government bond on the other. As he considered only 2 variables, his analysis was easy as there can be only binary choices, one or the other. But same can't be used when we talk about market asset like Bitcoin which can have hundred of substitutes. There can be 100 different sets of choices which make the application of Keynes's speculative demand study impossible. Hence I reached to following conclusion:

Now coming to Bitcoin. Bitcoin does not follow the principle of speculative demand as laid down by Keynes because its characteristics are very much similar to the securities considered by Keynes for this analysis. Hence speculation demand for bitcoin has different approach. Its speculation demand depends upon the relative rate of return. If the anticipated return on Bitcoin is higher than other securities, people will hold Bitcoins for speculation motive and vice-versa.
1184  Economy / Economics / Re: The Economic Analysis of Demand for Bitcoin on: October 28, 2019, 02:13:47 PM
....

Did you even read what I had to say? It looks like I am talking about Apples and Bananas and you explaining why water would be the main reason for World War 3.



But the fact that everyone wants to hold bitcoins will create a big hole. You should know that all the value of bitcoin is now manipulated and its price is very high. Think about it, for those who hold several thousand bitcoins, they always expect people to increase the demand to buy bitcoins to sell at high prices.
In fact, bitcoin has no value but it is manipulated. Everyone knows this, so it is not right that many people want to buy bitcoin.

No doubt that Bitcoin's demand is highly manipulated in practical world. Same is true for money. Money becomes dearer to holder as the amount of money spent by him increases but to study demand for money, we consider that every unit of money is equal to holder. Similarly, higher the units of bitcoin locked by whales from market, more dearer the rest of units become to investors. But I consider that factor negligible for my analysis.
1185  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk.org 10th Anniversary 💓 🦊 🔞 Burlesque Pageant and Revue! [NSFW] on: October 27, 2019, 08:12:07 PM
Sounds horrible. Maybe you should create a thread in Meta to draw everyone's attention to this illegal promotion strategy.

Maybe I sounded little salty by using this: so more people see your entry. I know among all reasons, Foxpup certainly didn't create this thread so that his/her art gets more engagement.
But my point was if someone else tried to do something similar, does the community reacted in same way? Is there a common consensus (completely involuntary) grew over time that entitles certain high ranked members to create such threads while others may be regarded as spammers if they try something similar? Just a thought, nothing serious though.
1186  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk.org 10th Anniversary 💓 🦊 🔞 Burlesque Pageant and Revue! [NSFW] on: October 27, 2019, 07:33:37 PM
Just because you are Foxpup, you can create a separate thread so more people see your entry?
1187  Economy / Economics / The Economic Analysis of Demand for Bitcoin on: October 27, 2019, 05:29:47 PM
It's been a while since I had a reasonable discussion in Economics section. Hence, I decided to create my own thread. In this thread, I am using the Keynesian Theory of Demand for Money to highlight the similarities as well as differences between the demand for Money and demand for Bitcoin. This thread will be little longer as I am going in full-depths but this is not copy/paste material so don't ignore it on that grounds. This is my personal analysis and every bit of it is my original work except obviously the contents from Keynesian Theory:

According to Keynesian theory of demand for money, also known as Liquidity Preference Theory, people prefer holding money for three motives:

1. Transactions Motive

The transaction motive for holding cash relates to the need for cash for current transactions for personal and business exchange. Such need arises because there is lack of synchronization between receipts and expenditure. You may receive money at different point but spend it at different point. The transaction demand for money is directly related to the level of income. Higher the income, higher the transaction demand for money. The equation could be written as:

Lr = kY


where Lr is the transaction demand for money, k is ratio of income kept as money for transactions purpose and Y is total income.

Now coming to Bitcoin. Since we are talking about transaction motive, it is very short-term utility of money so we have to assume return on Bitcoin as constant. But the difference between buying price and selling price surely effects the transaction motive for holding Bitcoins. For example, I receive my income in Bitcoin on 1st of every month and I visit my grocery store on 10th of every month. But the price on 1st was $8K which drops to $6K on 10th, I may postpone my expenditure for few days expecting bitcoin to rise again. Thus difference in buy-sell price has manipulative effect on transaction motive of Bitcoin. Hence, I reached to following equation for demand for Bitcoin for transaction motive:

Lr = k(Y*X)
X = |(S-B)/B|


where Lr, k and Y are same as above equation and S is the btc price when bitcoin was used for expenditure whereas B is price when bitcoin was received as income. According to my analysis, higher the value of X, longer the person will hold bitcoin.


2. The Precautionary Motive

Many unforeseen and unpredictable contingencies involving money payments occur in our day to day life. Thus people keep a portion of their income to meet such unanticipated expenditures. The portion of money kept by individual depends upon various factor such as income, political and economical conditions, personal characteristics of individual, etc. Keynes wasn't much clear on the factors, hence didn't give any equation.
Now coming to Bitcoin. In precautionary demand for money, income was the biggest determinant but in case of Bitcoin, personal characteristics and market condition are the more prominent ones. Since Bitcoin is High-Risk, High-Yielding investment, conservative person is less keen to hold bitcoins for precautionary motive than the radical one. Also, person will be more inclined to hold Bitcoins for precautionary motive if the market condition is favorable and bitcoin is in green zone for long.

3. Speculative Demand for Money

To analyse the Speculative demand for money, Keynes has taken two factors into consideration:
  • Interest rate on market securities
  • The expected rate of capital gain


According to Keynes, people have notion regarding the interest rate of securities which they consider to be normal. Such interest rate is known as critical interest rate. When the current interest rate is more than the critical interest rate, people convert all their money into securities because:
  • 1. They can earn more due to high rate of interest.
  • 2. Interest rate and the market value of security have an inverse relationship. So when the current rate of interest fall below critical rate, people will make capital gain as the market value of security will rise as compared to the price at which they bought the security.

On the contrary, if the current rate of interest is lower than the critical rate, people will convert all their securities into cash.
Now coming to Bitcoin. Bitcoin does not follow the principle of speculative demand as laid down by Keynes because its characteristics are very much similar to the securities considered by Keynes for this analysis. Hence speculation demand for bitcoin has different approach. Its speculation demand depends upon the relative rate of return. If the anticipated return on Bitcoin is higher than other securities, people will hold Bitcoins for speculation motive and vice-versa.

Any suggestions, questions, different approaches, views, doubts are welcome.
1188  Local / India / Re: When did you buy your first bitcoin? on: October 27, 2019, 01:24:27 PM
Anyone who invested a decent amount of money during 2015- 2016 made a good return from the  market

The time of buying bitcoin doesn't matter if you sold it at wrong time. For example, I bought some ETH in 2016 for $8 each. Although it was good time to enter into Ethereum market but I sold them soon when ETH crossed $20. I was happy that I doubled my money in 1 month but in next 17 months, ETH rose 120 times and I was the saddest person on Earth.
1189  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BitcoinNews.com's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: October 26, 2019, 07:20:38 PM
I had 3 points from Man City as well, but only managed to get 1.5 points from the there 3PM fixtures.
I have only 3.5 points so far. You know you're doing pretty bad when you don't even appear among the top 20 in one Round :/

Did I head 3.5? I only got 2 from this round so far. Looks like this will be the worst week for me. I also chose Tottenham to win against Liverpool by 4-2, really! Am I serious! I think I was quite intoxicated while making my picks for this round.  Cry

Quote
I expected Watford to finally get their first win, but damn this team is beyond salvation, they're doomed.

Sportsbet made the worst deal of its life. Looks like it is going to be promoted in Championship next season.  Grin
1190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2019, 04:02:09 AM
Hey cap-club, how good are you guys if you can't even predict 30% jump (highest ever in single day) a day before. You guys have made over 500K+ posts in this thread and still couldn't guess a bit of this! I thought you guys knew every pulse of the market.
PS: Sarcasm Intended
1191  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BitcoinNews.com's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: October 25, 2019, 08:58:37 PM
9-0, they tied the record for the biggest win in PL history. Rodgers in history books, I think I'm gonna puke a little Grin

What a magnificent start to the week! And hilarious was saying that we gonna see lot of draws this week, lol.
Leicester equals the total goals scored by Southampton this season in just single match.
1192  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BitcoinNews.com's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: October 25, 2019, 08:43:36 PM

edit: 7:0 is now.  Roll Eyes

0-8*
Maddison my boy! Messi level Free-Kick!
1193  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BitcoinNews.com's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: October 25, 2019, 07:46:43 PM
^ ^  I picked 1 - 1 too..  But it just became like the wrong pick.  Lol.  Bertrand red card at around 12 mins and like 20 - 30 secs after Chilwell goal.  Cheesy

Edit:  0 - 2 now.

Edit:  In like a couple of minutes...  0 - 3.

0-4 now. I hope Southampton can avoid the embarrassment of 0-10  Cheesy
As I said, Leicester is surely a contender of becoming champion again. Last time odds were 5000/1, I ain't gonna miss jackpot this time.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/02/leicester-city-win-premier-league-and-cost-bookies-biggest-ever/

Quick Update: Vardy made it 0-5 before halftime, looks like Leicester wanna keep it 5-5 in both halves Cheesy
1194  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BitcoinNews.com's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: October 25, 2019, 04:48:26 PM

both to score is my pick for this match
cause there is no Southampton over 0.5, only 1.5, and that's too risky, so I'm more confident with the both to score

Southampton is one of mystery in PL. Only in the first game against Burnley, they did not score but still have only 9 GF. Also, they have a third-worst defence in the league. All of that against Leicester third-best defence.
I expect Leicester to win with a clean sheet.

Leicester will win this one, no doubt in that. Leicester is hidden gem, the one which is not much talked about but playing really well. I was amazed the way they played against Liverpool. Although they lost but still defeat was nothing less than a win, I won't wonder if Leicester wins league this time. Earlier they gave us Kante, next season Maddison is going to be the hottest product in transfer market.
But Southampton on the other side haven't missed the net for a single time at home. Considering stats, I did give Southampton little respect and going with 1-2.
1195  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread on: October 24, 2019, 05:33:21 PM
Is nobody going to talk about City easy group? 3 wins out of 3 matches, against a team like Dinamo Zagreb, etc.
This group stage is literally a walk in the park for them. They should at least have a competitor like Atletico Madrid or something.

Don't worry, it's just group stage. A team still has to play 7 matches in knock-out stages to lift the trophy. I don't want to enter into debate whether Man City get easy group every time intentionally or it's just luck! Either way, they still have to prove them on the Europe stage and I don't see that happening with the defense they got. Even in match against Atlanta, Man City started with no central defender and offered penalty. Both of their main CBs, Otamendi and Stones haven't been at their best since last season. (Otamendi even degraded to Golden Ball from Black Ball in PES20). Pep is too focused on attack but defense is serious concern for MC.
1196  Economy / Economics / Re: Fiat Money Losing Worth, Bitcoin and Gold Getting Important on: October 24, 2019, 10:10:14 AM
Since we live in a world of high technology, in any case, digital currencies will be recognized as the best and most profitable for non-cash payments.  But one must take into account the fact that paper money will still exist as long as it is claimed by a significant part of humanity.  Regarding gold and Bitcoin, Bitcoin still has to prove its potential in contrast to gold, since cryptocurrency today is a valuable asset for those who want to earn using high volatility, but few people worry about what the future will be about cryptocurrency and will  whether Bitcoin is used as a means of payment.

Which potential are you talking about? To be used as a mean of payment? If yes then even gold hasn't been a perfect instrument for payment for all these years. During old times, gold coins were in circulation. Kingdoms used to impress their emblem on such coins making them official mode of payment. But as the time progress, people realized that something valuable can't be used for payment. It was leading to the violation of double coincidence of wants because money's intrinsic value was conflicting money's representational value.
Hence the world has shifted to currency notes which have very low intrinsic value but gets value due to the backing from government. Modern economy can only sustain on something like fiat currency. Both gold and btc are not viable options to be used as means of payment.
1197  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BitcoinNews.com's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: October 23, 2019, 06:47:45 PM
I have a Samsung smart TV. I can't see the App in the Samsung store though but maybe I need to use a proxy for it to show up as I remember the DAZN app wasn't there either when I looked. Did the guy you know need to use a proxy to install it? I guess I could probably just use it via desktop and link it to my TV that way if not as it would be much simpler that way. Using it direct on my TV would be great though.

I am not aware of that but the guy is using Android TV so it would been a comparatively easy for him to search and download from Google Play Store.
I agree broadcasting Desktop screen on TV is a kinda alternative way out. Using hotstar is also easy on desktop as you just have to visit the website. Try it and if that's possible just PM me and I will provide you Premium account details.
1198  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread on: October 23, 2019, 05:36:23 PM


I watch CL matches on SonyLiv. Rights to broadcast CL in India is with Sony Entertainments. They provide live stream on their application named SonyLiv. I actually opened SonyLiv on my tv, laptop and mobile simultaneously and watched three games in one go. Cheesy

Does Sony pay you to advertise their services?

Haha, nice one. Actually he asked so I was replying to him.
1199  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread on: October 23, 2019, 05:21:07 PM
What an hour of complete dominance, 3 clubs won their matches scoring 5 goals in the game. What a wonderful comeback for Mbappe. I had three screens open in front and it was goals feast at its best!
Are you streaming the matches to open three screens, if so do share the link so that everyone could watch that, i was watching the Real Madrid match and then i switched over to Bayern Munich match as Real Madrid did not score a goal in the second half but the second half between Bayern Munich and Olympiacos was filled with goals and i was expecting Robert Lewandowski to score a hat trick.

I watch CL matches on SonyLiv. Rights to broadcast CL in India is with Sony Entertainments. They provide live stream on their application named SonyLiv. I actually opened SonyLiv on my tv, laptop and mobile simultaneously and watched three games in one go. Cheesy
1200  Local / India / Re: Banking solution for Indian crypto users by Cashaa on: October 23, 2019, 09:46:29 AM
Cashaa going to lunches the banking services platform to Indian crypto users it will help Indian crypto users facing banking restrictions imposed by the reserve bank of India. The service allows users to deposit up to 1 crore rupees per month to purchase cryptocurrencies.

Cashaa may start such service. It is not difficult to start one. We only need an Indian Current Bank Account to start. But the question is how long can it sustain?
RBI has clear directive to banks to not provide any kind of banking services to crypto-based business. As soon as bank will notice that Cashaa is providing crypto-purchase services, their account will be limited and users' funds will get stuck.
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