Are we playing the contrived questions game or the florid walls of text game?

Not sure why you're still yapping about Cuba, even after you quoted something about the embargo not achieving its objectives. Then Gaza. Can't stay on topic? Might it have something to do with the fact that Putin is the aggressor in this context? So you desperately need to find something else to justify the genocidal gnome? What happened to the whole "human shield" thing, suffering a bit of amnesia here, aren't you?

I think that the articles themselves are more related to selling newspapers than providing a honest depiction of the Ukrainian government working and state of things. Ukraine is simply requesting a honest support from the US. Not "just enough to hold" which seems to be what the US is doing right now. I am quite convinced that if the US wanted they would push much harder, but they are quite happy seeing the Ruzzian army burn through their stockpiles, which would not happen if the war was clearly in favour of one of the parts.

I am not sure US is measuring clearly the problems that Ukraine is facing.

The New York Times-Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership

The presidential office said Gen. Valery Zaluzhny’s declaration that the war is at a stalemate was helpful to the Russians.

The office of President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday chastised Ukraine’s top military commander for publicly declaring the war at a stalemate, suggesting the comments would help the Russian invasion. It was a striking public rebuke that signaled an emerging rift between the military and civilian leadership at an already challenging time for Ukraine.
...
The public censure of General Zaluzhny came a day after the president’s office replaced one of his deputies, the head of special operations forces, who after his firing said he had been blindsided by the dismissal. It was unclear whether General Zaluzhny, the overall commander of Ukraine’s forces, knew in advance of the planned dismissal.
...
Its operations along the roughly 600-mile-long trench line have failed to produce any advances, while resulting in high casualties on both sides, and Ukraine is facing intensified Russian attacks in the East.
...
Ukraine’s leadership is also worried that the attention of Western allies has shifted to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and away from its war with Russia. “The war in the Middle East, this conflict takes away the focus,” Mr. Zelensky said on Saturday.
...
officials and politicians in Ukraine and allied capitals have been passing around blame for the stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in June and has advanced only a dozen or so miles through densely mined fields. American officials have hinted that Ukraine was to blame for dispersing its forces too widely; Mr. Zelensky said his army did not receive sufficient weaponry to advance.
...
The decision [dismissal] puzzled some because General Khorenko had scored a string of successes in striking behind enemy lines, including hitting ships and infrastructure of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea and targets inside Russia. The long-range strikes and sabotage operations of the special forces had cheered Ukrainians.

But field commanders and military analysts had noted grumbling in the ranks over what were perceived as politically guided decisions on strategy, including the launch of an amphibious assault across the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine that has yet to secure a bridgehead on the Russian-held eastern bank. Another point of tension was the firing of battalion commanders who had led units in the counteroffensive in southern Ukraine over the summer.
...
Commentators including a member of Ukraine’s Parliament said General Khorenko’s firing appeared to be the most significant and potentially disruptive political meddling in the military’s prosecution of the war so far.

“The firing looks like political interference into the armed forces and into its combat actions,” the member, Solomiya Bobrovska, who serves on the Parliament’s defense and intelligence committee, said in an interview. Ms. Bobrovska belongs to an opposition political party, Holos.

“This is a big mistake, and there will be consequences,” she said in the interview. She suggested that in fact it was the presidential office’s firing of a successful general that would aid the Russians.

BBC-Ukraine war: Grenade birthday gift kills army chief Zaluzhny's aide
...
The blast has been described as a "tragic accident" and the minister appealed to the public to await the outcome of an official investigation. Police said the explosion in the family flat at Chaiky in the western outskirts of Kyiv had been "as a result of careless handling of ammunition".

But it soon emerged that another five grenades had been found in the flat. Mr Klymenko said that they had been a gift from a colleague in the army.

Two similar grenades were later found in a search of the colleague, described as a colonel in the army.
...
A source told Ukrainska Pravda that the bottle had been in a gift bag with grenade-shaped glasses and the explosion happened when he opened the bag. Other reports said that his colleague had handed over the bottle saying: "It's hard to surprise you: That's why I'm giving you combat grenades and a bottle of good whisky."

Gen Zaluzhny spoke of the unspeakable pain and heavy loss to the Ukrainian military and to him personally, describing Maj Chastyakov as a "reliable shoulder" since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
...
However, the official cause of the explosion has been questioned by Ukrainian commentators, some of whom have speculated whether it was an attack targeting Gen Zaluzhny himself, on the assumption that he might have attended his aide's birthday celebrations.

^^^ The interesting thing is that Russians are not stupid. Their people are watching everything that the American military does. Then they copy and improve... if they don't happen to already have something better.

I'm just pointing out how ridiculous your rhetoric is. Making up "blockade" where there isn't one. Talking about self-determination that is one-way only etc. I'm all for free trade. You're for free trade for Cuba but obviously not for Ukraine's grain, amirite?

Not sure why exactly "the whole world voted" the way it did, but I don't disagree. Let's start with Russia fucking off Ukraine, which "the whole world voted" for too, then we can get to US lifting embargo off Cuba, and eventually world peace. I'll leave the implementation details to you, geopolitical genius that you are.

The documents show that the initial concept of U.S. economic pressure was to create “hardship” and “disenchantment” among the Cuban populace and to deny “money and supplies to Cuba, to decrease monetary and real wages, [and] to bring about hunger, desperation, and the overthrow of [the] government.” However, a CIA case study of the embargo, written twenty years after its imposition, concluded that the sanctions “have not met any of their objectives.”

Comrade, you got tangled up in the verbal diarrhea of your righteous anger. Trade implies mutual "self determination" to engage in said trade, and the US used its "right to self determination" to not trade with Cuba. Perhaps you should ask yourself why is it that Cuba (and most countries for that matter) wants to trade with the US so much, and not with e.g. Russia, the richest country in the world.

Also there is no "blockade".

And it has nothing to do with Putin's invasion into Ukraine but nice try at deflection.

Casualties of the Ruzzian army are not in the range of 150k but in the range of 300k. If you wait for tomorrow add between 600 and 900 more.

Ukraine officials are stating the obvious, the message is not "we got it wrong" (that is an interpretation, biased as usual) the message is that they are fighting with a country that has lots of people and a regime that is ok letting them die and a society that is ok accepting such regime so they need the right level of support from their allies.

Ukrainian officials are being straightforward with their allies and supporters and they certainly need to be straightforward: either you provide proper help or Ruzzia will eventually be knocking at your own doors or, for the US, you will be dragged into a cold war that is far more expensive than supporting Ukraine.

US people and some others are failing to realise that the alternative of peace, as of now, is not a real alternative, all that will happen is that Ruzzia would start preparing the next invasion in 5 years time, maybe less. That is not peace is just a pause to get their breath, recruit another 250.000 poor bastards from the poorest regions and send them to the next meatgrinder to capture city XYZ.

When you are a mid-size country fighting a large-size country, the strategy is to be "too expensive" or "not worth it". Ukraine has shown to be quite expensive to invade and I am not sure you can class the current holdings of Ruzzia as "worth it", I mean, half of the arsenal of soviet era stuff is now recyclable rust. Putin & the Psychos do not care for the soldiers, that has been made clear, but they may actually care for the gear they have left.

Now on the US support for aid. While support (this month, in October it was in good health at 65%) has been reduced, the majority of democrats, that will decide if Biden gets another chance, do support Ukraine, so the usual Washington trade-offs will progress as usual and eventually some form of aid will go to Ukraine. The F-16 training is ongoing, the shipments are ongoing... Ukraine should have a winning hand, but at least they do have a fighting chance.

BTW, how many spare artillery and shell does North Korea have? You know that due to the meat tactics, Ruzzia cannot be in the offensive unless they have a ridiculously large supply of shells. It could perfectly happen that the supply is just not enough.




https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67182172

...Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable–and thus change Vladimir Putin’s calculations, forcing the Russian president to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are in the first and second world wars in which Russia lost tens of millions.

An army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian defensive lines. “If you look at NATO’s text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” General Zaluzhny says sardonically. Instead he watched his troops and equipment get stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied equipment getting pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. The same story unfolded on the offensive’s main thrust, in the south, where newly formed and inexperienced brigades, despite being equipped with modern Western kit, immediately ran into trouble.
...
“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other,” he says.
...
Joe Biden, America’s president, set objectives at the start of Russia’s invasion: to ensure that Ukraine was not defeated and that America was not dragged into confrontation with Russia. This means that arms supplied by the West have been sufficient in sustaining Ukraine in the war, but not enough to allow it to win.
...
Similarly, F-16 jets, due next year, are now less helpful, suggests the general, in part because Russia has improved its air defences: an experimental version of the S-400 missile system can reach beyond the city of Dnipro, he warns.
...
General Zaluzhny’s assessment is sobering: there is no sign that a revolutionary technological breakthrough, whether in drones or in electronic warfare, is around the corner. And technology has its limits. Even in the first world war, the arrival of tanks, in 1917, was not sufficient to break the deadlock on the battlefield: it took a suite of technologies, and more than a decade of tactical innovation, to produce the German blitzkrieg in May 1940. The implication is that Ukraine is stuck in a long war—one in which he acknowledges Russia has the advantage. Nevertheless, he insists that Ukraine has no choice but to keep the initiative by remaining on the offensive, even if it only moves by a few metres a day.
...
A collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support is precisely what Mr Putin is counting on. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, a country with a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine’s. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now, General Zaluzhny says, he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/30/7426406/

"He also said some in Zelenskyy’s team are convinced that the president "deludes himself". "We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that," one of Zelenskyy’s closest aides told Shuster."

"Some front-line commanders, he continued, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the Office of the President. "They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line," the aide said. "But we can’t win a war that way." "

"political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to ‘retake’ the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? ‘They don’t have the men or the weapons,’ says the officer. ‘Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?’," the author states. "


Sounds like a scene from movie "Downfall" when Hitler tried to command units that didn't exist anymore

He relied on his wife, First Lady Olena Zelenska, to carry his message of resilience on the stage beside him, while his own delivery felt stilted, as though he wanted to get it over with. At one point, while handing out medals after the speech, he urged the organizer to hurry things along.
...
It is only getting harder. Twenty months into the war, about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have been killed, and Zelensky can feel during his travels that global interest in the war has slackened. So has the level of international support. “The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine,” he says. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’”

Public support for aid to Ukraine has been in decline for months in the U.S., and Zelensky’s visit did nothing to revive it. Some 41% of Americans want Congress to provide more weapons to Kyiv, down from 65% in June, when Ukraine began a major counteroffensive, according to a Reuters survey taken shortly after Zelensky’s departure. That offensive has proceeded at an excruciating pace and with enormous losses, making it ever more difficult for Zelensky to convince partners that victory is around the corner. With the outbreak of war in Israel, even keeping the world’s attention on Ukraine has become a major challenge.
...
“Now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out,” says one longtime member of his team. Another tells me that, most of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.
...
On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”

Zelensky’s stubbornness, some of his aides say, has hurt their team’s efforts to come up with a new strategy, a new message. As they have debated the future of the war, one issue has remained taboo: the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with the Russians. Judging by recent surveys, most Ukrainians would reject such a move, especially if it entailed the loss of any occupied territory.
...
Zelensky describes it as a war of wills, and he fears that if the Russians are not stopped in Ukraine, the fighting will spread beyond its borders. “I’ve long lived with this fear,” he says. “A third world war could start in Ukraine, continue in Israel, and move on from there to Asia, and then explode somewhere else.” That was his message in Washington: Help Ukraine stop the war before it spreads, and before it’s too late. He worries his audience has stopped paying attention.

...
This time around, the atmosphere had changed. Assistance to Ukraine had become a sticking point in the debate over the federal budget. One of Zelensky’s foreign policy advisers urged him to call off the trip in September, warning that the atmosphere was too fraught. Congressional leaders declined to let Zelensky deliver a public address on Capitol Hill. His aides tried to arrange an in-person appearance for him on Fox News and an interview with Oprah Winfrey. Neither one came through.

Instead, on the morning of Sept. 21, Zelensky met in private with then House Speaker Kevin McCarthy before making his way to the Old Senate Chamber, where lawmakers grilled him behind closed doors. Most of Zelensky’s usual critics stayed silent in the session; Senator Ted Cruz strolled in more than 20 minutes late. The Democrats, for their part, wanted to understand where the war was headed, and how badly Ukraine needed U.S. support. “They asked me straight up: If we don’t give you the aid, what happens?” Zelensky recalls. “What happens is we will lose.”

Zelensky’s performance left a deep impression on some of the lawmakers present. Angus King, an independent Senator from Maine, recalled the Ukrainian leader telling his audience, “You’re giving money. We’re giving our lives.” But it was not enough. Ten days later, Congress passed a bill to temporarily avert a government shutdown. It included no assistance for Ukraine.
...
Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have damaged power stations and parts of the electricity grid, leaving it potentially unable to meet spikes in demand when the temperature drops. Three of the senior officials in charge of dealing with this problem told me blackouts would likely be more severe this winter, and the public reaction in Ukraine would not be as forgiving. “Last year people blamed the Russians,” one of them says. “This time they’ll blame us for not doing enough to prepare.”
...
At least one minister would need to be fired, along with a senior general in charge of the counteroffensive, they said, to ensure accountability for Ukraine’s slow progress at the front. “We’re not moving forward,” says one of Zelensky’s close aides. Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”
...
At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”

In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”

...
Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”
...
Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.

The decision was intended to signal his commitment to fighting graft. But the move backfired, according to the senior military officer, as recruitment nearly ground to a halt without leadership. The fired officials also proved difficult to replace, in part because the reputation of the draft offices had been tainted. “Who wants that job?” the officer asks. “It’s like putting a sign on your back that says: corrupt.”
...
One of the aides who traveled with Zelensky to the U.S. told me these proposals targeted the very top of the state hierarchy. “These were not suggestions,” says another presidential adviser. “These were conditions. [from US]”
...
Amid all the pressure to root out corruption, I assumed, perhaps naively, that officials in Ukraine would think twice before taking a bribe or pocketing state funds. But when I made this point to a top presidential adviser in early October, he asked me to turn off my audio recorder so he could speak more freely. “Simon, you’re mistaken,” he says. “People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.”
...
When we sat down inside his office, Shurma told me the allegations against him were part of a political attack paid for by one of Zelensky’s domestic enemies. “A piece of sh-t was thrown,” he says, brushing the front of his sweater. “And now we have to explain that we are clean.” It did not seem to trouble him that his brother is a major player in the industry that Shurma oversees. On the contrary, he spent nearly half an hour trying to convince me of the gold rush that renewable energy would see after the war.

Perhaps, I suggested, amid all the concerns about corruption in Ukraine, it would have been wiser for Shurma to step aside while under investigation for embezzlement, or at least sit out Zelensky’s trip to Washington. He responded with a shrug. “If we do that, tomorrow everybody on the team would be targeted,” he says. “Politics is back, and that’s the problem.”
...From the earliest days of the Russian invasion, Zelensky’s top priority and perhaps his main contribution to the nation’s defense had been to keep attention on Ukraine and to rally the democratic world to its cause. Both tasks would become a lot harder with the outbreak of war in Israel. The focus of Ukraine’s allies in the U.S. and Europe, and of the global media, quickly shifted to the Gaza Strip.

“It’s logical,” Zelensky tells me. “Of course we lose out from the events in the Middle East. People are dying, and the world’s help is needed there to save lives, to save humanity.” Zelensky wanted to help. After the crisis meeting with aides, he asked the Israeli government for permission to visit their country in a show of solidarity. The answer appeared the following week in Israeli media reports: “The time is not right.”
...
But it was also an acknowledgment that, on its own, Ukraine aid no longer stands much of a chance in Washington. When I asked Zelensky about this, he admitted that Biden’s hands appear to be tied by GOP opposition. The White House, he said, remains committed to helping Ukraine. But arguments about shared values no longer have much sway over American politicians or the people who elect them. “Politics is like that,” he tells me with a tired smile. “They weigh their own interests.”

On the news you choose, yes it is biased, you choose those that reinforce your beliefs and choose to ignore other equally important information (e.g. change of Government in Poland). Also, you choose to ignore the effect of the increase in number an effectiveness of the weapons available for Ukraine.

On the redefinition of winning... do you happen to have the phone of the Ruzzian Ministry of Propaganda? They have so much experience in re-defining victory that they could share some of their learnings. I mean... "we will change the Ukrainian government, demilitarise the country and stop NATO expansion...." to "We hope we do not loose the bridge to Crimea and keep a minimum buffer zone and have some fishing boats in Sebastopol".

You do not need a formula to understand the cost of territory. It is simply enough to understand if it is sustainable or not sustainable. Sufficient to say that there are abundant reports of North Korean supplies of shells and low-tech going to the front. Why do you think Ruzzia needs to import low-tech like shells, rifles and artillery from North Korea? Is it because they are producing enough?

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/10/north-korea-arms-russia-2/


Of course, no free lunch for Ruzzia at all:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/south-korea-warns-russia-of-retaliation-if-missile-tech-supplied-to-north-korea/3034523


Ruzzia is banking on entrenching themselves to the point that Ukraine would need two years of intense war to drive them out have the US & other not willing to support Ukraine for that long. Avdiivka is strategic, but it is also an PR exercise for Putin that is why the losses are not being counted.

Wars Push Up Demand for Weapons, Sparking Fears of Shortages
...
Western defense officials worry that with Israel going to war as the West battles Russia by proxy in Ukraine, there won’t be enough artillery shells and other weapons to keep both allies in the fight.
...
“Of course” there are concerns about competition for military resources because of limited production capacity, said Göran Mårtensson, director general of the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration, which handles procurement for the country’s defense ministry. “There will be more need for that limited production capacity in Europe and the U.S.”
...
Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine roughly 20 months ago, defense contractors across the West have geared up production, but output remains below the volumes of ammunition and equipment being spent on Ukraine’s battlefields.
...
With demand increasing faster than production, prices of some supplies have soared. NATO-standard 155-millimeter artillery shells, one of the West’s most basic armaments, had cost governments about $2,100 apiece before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, said Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, Stoltenberg’s top military adviser, at the NATO forum.
The price of those shells, which Bauer dubbed “one of the most coveted objects in the world right now,” has increased fourfold, to about $8,400, he said.
...
Sweden and three other Nordic countries earlier this month announced a rare multicountry order for 155mm shells for Kyiv, valued at roughly $54 million. At the prices NATO’s Bauer cited, that would deliver fewer than 7,000 rounds.
...
“Everything is connected,” he said. “If Israel is helped out from the U.S. stockpiles, that’s taken away from something.”
...
“The biggest one to highlight, and it sticks out, is on the artillery side,” said Chief Financial Officer Jason Aiken of the recent $106 billion supplemental funding request from the White House, which includes further support for Ukraine and Israel, as well as Taiwan. “The Israeli situation is only going to put upward pressure on that demand.”

The Pentagon has sent back to Israel stocks of its shells relocated this year to replenish U.S. forces in Europe, a senior defense official said this week.

“We have a huge deficit of ammunition not just in Ukraine but all over the world,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Financial Times. “We understand we should produce this here in Ukraine because all around the world it’s finished, it’s depleted. All the warehouses are empty.”
...
But building up a procurement industry for shells, artillery and air defence is a far more complex and ambitious undertaking than for drones, at a time of worldwide shortages of key components and raw materials. One official said they could not quickly transform shell production in the way they did for drones, not least because of the global “shortage of gunpowder”.

So... you gather all the news that you find favourable to a certain position and you call that the direction of travel right? Including things like "a majority of Americans do not support further aid"? I mean, your own source says:

- so you are right, there are 3% more that think it is enough - seems to me like within the margin of error of one week to another, but sure, if you need "hopium" go for it.

About weapons that are game changers, well they actually are. Two questions that you need to ask yourself:

- Why does Ukraine have a corridor that is working perfectly on exporting grain and other goods by sea? You did not know? Well it is there. Why?
- Why is Ukraine specifically targeting the S-400 and why are they actually able to do it?

From columns of tanks advancing in the early days - or just staying there like sitting ducks -  all over the country, to loosing a year's worth of helicopters in a day, loosing a submarine, getting the Baltic fleet HQ bombed... Excuse me, but I think these weapons have changed the game, like a lot. This is a war of attrition and these weapons are great at blasting high-value targets.

And latest reports speak of even more troops being prepared for yet another assault in Avdiivka, after the loss of more than 200 vehicles in a week. Next week is going to be bloody for Ruzzia.

On the S-400, I will give you a hint: What is the single objective that could make a significant difference, requires a weapon that has not yet been used but it is on its way and might be bothered by S-400s? Another clue: It starts with Kerch and end with Bridge.

Ruzzia as of now has been reduced to WW I strategies - meat waves - with a 10% of other, such as gliding bombs, some Sahed (some say it is keeping them for winter, but it may be the case that there are not that many), missiles (nearly none las month), ... If Ukraine gets more modern aviation and over all the right munitions, the game will change again.

Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.

There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.

The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.

Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.

Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...

The White House is losing the messaging war on Ukraine. Now it’s changing the message.

The president’s team is privately urging lawmakers to focus on the jobs that can be created by money spent on the war.

The White House has been quietly urging lawmakers in both parties to sell the war efforts abroad as a potential economic boom at home.

Aides have been distributing talking points to Democrats and Republicans who have been supportive of continued efforts to fund Ukraine’s resistance to make the case that doing so is good for American jobs, according to five White House aides and lawmakers familiar with the effort and granted anonymity to speak freely.
...
“This supplemental request invests over $50 billion in the American defense industrial base — ensuring our military continues to be the most ready, capable, and best equipped fighting force the world has ever seen — and expanding production lines, strengthening the American economy and creating new American jobs,” the document states.
...
“No Americans are getting killed in Ukraine. We’re rebuilding our industrial base. The Ukrainians are destroying the army of one of our biggest rivals. I have a hard time finding anything wrong with that. I think it’s wonderful that they’re defending themselves,” he said on CBS’s Face the Nation.
...
On top of communication with McConnell, Defense Department officials have also circulated to the Hill slides showing nearly $20 billion in investment in the industrial base via U.S. support for Ukraine. That includes nearly $3.1 billion in contracts targeted toward expanding the nation’s industrial base capacity, including increasing artillery production approximately six-fold over three years.
...
But White House aides have also argued that the war was hitting Americans in their wallets. They blamed the conflict for surging costs, particularly gas prices — though its “Putin’s price hike” moniker didn’t catch on — and warned that economic woes would grow if Ukraine fell.

Now, the tenor of the economic push has changed, with White House aides enlisting lawmakers to make a more positive case.
...
“Equipment that defends America and is made in America. Patriot missiles for air defense batteries, made in Arizona. Artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas. And so much more,” he said. “You know, just as in World War II, today patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom.”

The change in sales pitch comes as polls show that Americans are growing more skeptical of the effort to help Ukraine — and continue to question Biden’s handling of the economy.

Pentagon warns about China’s growing long-range missile arsenal in major report
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China is rapidly modernizing its military and using it as a means of projecting power across the Pacific region and ultimately around the globe, improving its ability to operate in all the domains of warfare, including the traditional land, air and sea, as well as nuclear, cyber and space.
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As part of the latest National Defense Strategy, the US has pointed to China as the “pacing challenge,” capable of competing with America in terms of its military might, economic power and international reach. Beijing already possesses a standing army of more than one million soldiers, the largest navy in the world by number of ships and the largest air force in the region.
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 Chinese military pilots have ramped up their “coercive and risky” behavior against US aircraft flying over the East and South China in the last two years. In total, there have been more than 180 such incidents, including some in which the Chinese jets came to within 20 feet of US military aircraft.
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 US defense officials are still frustrated by China’s unwillingness to engage in high-level military-to-military channels, but a defense official said on Wednesday that some communication continues at the working level.

Newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said on Thursday that funding to support Ukraine and Israel should be handled separately, suggesting he will not back President Joe Biden's $106 billion aid package for both countries.
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Johnson said of Ukraine funding: "We want to know what the object is there, what is the end game in Ukraine.

"The White House has not provided that," he added.

Biden is betting that including money for Israel and immigration will help convince House Republicans wary of sending additional money to Ukraine to support the measure.

"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.

THE BITCOIN  HALVING IS ONLY 162 DAYS OUT 

Oh... that's new. I mean, not that you do not want them as "friends" - Ruzzia does not have "friends", what you spoke about is about overtaking Ukraine, changing the government to a puppet like uncle Luka, create two independent states...

And now you speak about neutrality. Ruzzia never wanted "neutrality", Moscow wanted a base in Sebastopol , buffer states a better link to Crimea... but certainly not "neutrality".



I think is very clear: If you loose what seems to be above 100 tanks / vehicles in two days and advance 50 meters (quite different from what Ukraine is doing), you may want to reconsider your strategy, but hey look, go for it, keep on!

Keep you guessing what? Palestinians do not want to fight - Hamas is not "Palestinians", they did not even get a majority vote!! You put lost of people in a small space, cut water and food and bomb it. What is there to guess??

No, it is actually how people use logic, and is not 4th grade. They tried attacking the grid and Ukraine come out stronger, strategy is wrong.

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They probably would like to hire me, they probably cannot pay the price  

1. The Israelis are not cutting supplies for the "war effort". I leave to your imagination (wild mostly) why have they first put 2 million people in a space that can hold 500k, then limit their movement, control their food, their water, every aspect of their lives and, after the Hamas attack, cut essential life supplies -  but I can tell you is not to achieve military objectives nor to diminish the "military production" of the Gaza strip.

2. The US army and NATO had plenty of military means to spare, if they were limited, they would not have given any priority to the grid for many reasons: (a) It is simply a infrastructure that easy to replace and repair and difficult to destroy beyond repair (particularly with the "precision" of the Ruzzian missiles). (b) Ukraine is too large for that strategy to be effective (c) the military production is mostly done outside Ukraine.

But you know, last winter they did it, and here we are so that proves is not effective, rational people would not need further proof.

For everything else you say, you are wrong. The Ukraine is not going to attack the RF grid with ATACAMS, as they are not doing so with Stormshadow, because they are not as stupid as the RF military and would rather not waste what they have. They will blow up military and economic objectives that really hurt - multi-million oil infrastructure, logistic hubs, we. They can see them thanks to "the gospel" from the sky and the massive infiltration behind Ruzzian lines. They are quite mad they cannot shot at them, but that's about to change.

The Article 5 would not stop Ruzzia from invading further Ukraine. So again, your solution of surrendering is not a solution, is a pause so that Ruzzia repairs the army a goes in the offensive again. You must think that people are stupid seriously - what a bunch of non-sense covered in a trillion words.

EDIT: Ruzzia has thrown plenty of troops in Avdiivka. I mean, thrown into a scrapyard literaly. Tens of BMPs an tanks in ashes (with their crews) in one day. The territorial gain has been... 50 meters? Another successful effort in "self-demilitarising" by Ruzzia.

https://youtu.be/emjwRD2nPqU?t=2674

Looks like we are seeing a plunge in price. A bit delayed in my opinion but I guess people were unsure how to react to the latest war situation. Looking at the charts it does seem like there should be one more massive drop before the rocket launches to the moon, so if I were a trader I’d be watching for a big buying opportunity and getting ready to go all in.

Oh men... you just called narratives and spins and here you are repeating over and over the mainstream Kremlin propaganda. Your narrative is highly convenient to Ruzzia (I am not surprised) and fits perfectly what the Kremlin wants everyone to believe (I am not surprised). "theres is nothing to be done", "all effort is in vain", "Ruzzia is too big", "Ruzzia has too many people",... The usual propaganda. But the biggest lie is that conceeding anything will stop Ruzzia (more on that below).

It turns out it is false and easily identifiable as false:

- Ruzzia is not fighting Ukraine, is fighting a bunch of angry and well industrialised countries - with quite a big and technically advanced military industry.
- Ruzzia had to retreat from vast amounts of territory because they cannot hold.
- Ukraine has managed to penetrate and is still penetrating well entrenched positions.
- The grinding of military equipment is actually unsustainable for Ruzzia, but it is not for Ukraine and their allies (Japan had an advantage in fleet, but then... they did not, like Ruzzia now).

This are facts not "spins" or "narratives". Even the Kremlin propagandists have gone for "Kiev in 3 days" to "Lets shape a convenient border and hope they do not break our lines".

This of course matches things like wasting missiles in power infrastructure, which is (a) irrelevant to the war effort (b) proven to be inefficient (c) proven to reinforce the will of the people being attacked.
It simply reminds me of Hitler bombing London - zero military effectiveness - to "break the will of the English" - in case you are not in the know, it did not go well for him.

Yes, to call an outcome unacceptable you need to balance this and that (which is never an mathematical exercise, because you may put little price on liberty, while many are ok to die for it). The problem is that a "victorious" Ruzzia (at least in a tactical level, the strategic international level is lost already), would not be an outcome, it would be the first chapter of and endless war hot / cold / proxy and all mixed. It is totally false anything like "if Ukraine conceded the land they will stop there" - it is just not going to happen so the option of "stopping the war now" is a fantasy.

So sure, balance that in your dreams.

No, ATACAMS are a weapon, they are not Ruzzian propaganda nor Kremlin narratives for "moral effects". Ukraine wants ATACAMS to blow up things they cannot blow up now and would very much like to blow up. It is not that difficult to imagine a few "objects" that they would like to convert to a recyclable construction rubbish pile. Objects that are the real strategically relevant, not "the infrastructure grid to lower the morale".

And now, the winter missile campaign - same tactics, same results (e.g. convincing the US to send a few more Patriots.)

Putin's plan to wear down support for Ukraine in a war of attrition seems to be working, though it's not risk-free

The Russian president has been playing a long game, wagering that Western resolve in helping Ukraine battle the Russian invasion was weak. In recent days there have been indications that it might be paying off.

In the US, Congress is currently split on whether to send more aid to Ukraine, a move opposed by Republicans in the House who recently unseated its speaker, Kevin McCarthy.

In Slovakia, a far-right party opposed to Ukraine aid won the general election; while in Germany support for the far-right AfD is surging on similar rhetoric.

If this winter brings more high fuel prices and inflation, exacerbated by the war, it could further erode public backing for large aid bills.

A war of attrition, say analysts, plays to Russian strengths, like its ability to manufacture more weapons and ammunition than Ukraine, and its much larger population.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's economy is struggling under the weight of the conflict and it is heavily dependent on Western aid.

"There are more and more signs that he's correct," Beebe told Insider of Putin's bet.

"Ukraine is not meeting its conscription goals, its economy is sagging under the weight of the war, and enthusiasm is waning both in the US and Europe for maintaining high levels of aid to Ukraine."

If Western aid were to dry up and Ukraine's resistance be seriously weakened, it's unclear how long Ukraine would be able to mount a resistance for — but at the very least Russia could transform Ukraine into failed state in permanent crisis.

NATO officials said the aim of the attacks, which plunged Belgrade into darkness Monday for several hours, was to disrupt military communications, command centers and air defense systems.
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NATO planes have attacked bridges, oil refineries and other targets in raids that have affected civilians. But until Monday they had refrained from striking the electrical system. The alliance has repeatedly insisted its fight is with President Slobodan Milosevic, not with the Yugoslav people.

"The fact that lights went out across 70 percent of the country shows that NATO has its finger on the light switch now," said NATO spokesman Jamie Shea. "We can turn the power off whenever we need to and whenever we want to."

Though NATO insisted that its attacks on the electrical system would frustrate the Yugoslav and Serbian military, it was not immediately clear whether the forces had been hampered. The allies also say the attacks will not cut power to hospitals and other vital civilian services because they can turn to back-up generators powered by diesel fuel.
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"We realize the inconvenience that may be caused to the Yugoslav people, but it up to Milosevic to decide how he wants to use his remaining energy resources: on his tanks or on his people," Shea said.

Lights go out in Baghdad as US sends in special forces

‘No Electricity, No Food, No Fuel’: Israel Orders ‘Complete Siege’ On Gaza Strip

Sure, it is just that the solution you propose (Ukraine simply surrendering) is not a long term solution at all, it will carry war after war from a "victorious" Ruzzia, which is not acceptable outcome to me.

Speaking of meters, I think meters matter. Even 500 meters matter a lot. It is more or less what Ukraine need to take to place a HIMARS in range of hitting Berdiansk. Or any location along the coast or the railway line. Why do you think they are asking for ATACAMS? I think is because they can see a lot, but they cannot hit it (supplies, depots, command centres, logistics...)

So yes, a few meters here and there matter, which is the reason why Ukraine is still fighting for 50 meters at the time.

Ukraine's air force expects a record number of Russian drone attacks on its soil this winter, its spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said on Sunday, as Kyiv girds for a second winter of mass bombardment of its energy facilities.

Ihnat said that data for September showed the use by Russia of Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones would smash last year's figure.

"This autumn and winter ... is already a record in terms of the number of Shahed drones. Over 500 (were used) in September," Ihnat said in an interview on national television.

He contrasted this number with Russia's air strike campaign on Ukraine last winter, when he said about 1,000 Shahed drones were used in six months.
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Despite Ukraine bolstering its air defences, officials have warned of the risk of a repeat this winter, with the power grid still far from rebuilt after the last campaign of bombardment.

So you are trying to correct my positive spin by putting a negative spin on everything? If you are counting on any kind of opposite poles attraction, I here and now shall discourage you in full - it is not BAdeker's Gods will. Now, after now being accused of being xenofobic towards sub-atomic particles with spins other than mine, back to serious topics in my next update.