According Zhaodong's weibo, Hashratio consumes about 4-5P BE200 chips
Source? |
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BTCGarden, ROCKMINER, Lightning Asics, etc. combined only account for, say 6 PH/s.
Source? Only an overly generous guess. BTCGarden managed to sell a lot, yeah. They had sold like almost a PH a month ago. let's assume they now sold 3. With all their 400 GH/s machines, ROCKMINER needs to sell like 4000 machines to achieve a single PH. Lightning Asic seems to be stagnating ever since. They even have a in-stock-counter that moves about 5 pcs/week. I doubt they sold more than 100 TH/s. Who else is there? XBTec used to be the big hope for AM. Well, they've gone silent, and only have lowered (as in 'it got worse') their consumption expectations. They really seemed to have done the trick in optimizing the BE200. I'm having a hard time reaching even those estimated 6 PH/s. And that would only account for 1/10 of those 60 PH/s  Hashratio and franchised mining seems to be the final straw. And I can't believe that FC is dictating the terms there Please show me calculations that support more chips have been sold to manufacturers! Lightning asic was only reselling hashratio machines AFAIK. Here are my estimates: BTCgarden 3PH-5PH sales + 2PH self mining Hashratio 1-5PH sales + 10-20PH self mining Lightning asic 1-2PH self mining Rockminer 2-3PH sales + 1-2PH self mining xbtec 2-10PH self mining (Can't really go off their own numbers since they seem somewhat bad at estimations but they are deploying HW apparently) Edentech ~1PH AM mine 2-4PH (could be franchising/mining 20+ PH if they found a location with cheap electricity) |
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They have competitive pricing for their product, and that is it.
How can you possibly know what the competition will be like in 2 months? Or are you just completely guessing based on what is currently available? but I doubt you will get the same quality anywhere at the moment. I'm curious to know what metric you are using for quality. Does loudness = quality? |
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Did they not make any money from the sp10? I'd be surprised if they ended up with less than $10m profit.
Please break the numbers down for us because I really like to see how you got to that number. How many units do you think they sold in order to get $10m profit out of it? It's just my guess. Do you really think that they did not make a profit? My guess is ~5000 sp10s at $2,000 profit each. This is a lousy excuse. At $0.1/gh (could be much lower) they would only need $1m for 3 months worth of sp30 chips. (at 500 sp30/month)
I see that you only quoted the cheapest part aka the chips. What about the rest? PCBs, components, server grade PSUs, cases. They aren't so cheap as the chips and they are not available to buy from stock in large quantities. Do you need to buy pcbs, components, and server psus months in advance? I'm sure they are a few other components that have long lead times but I really doubt the majority do. I'm betting that server grade PSUs in big numbers aren't so easy to find, or the custom PCBs.
How can that be? Server psus are probably one of the most common parts they are using. The NRE is at least $3M and while I don't know the numbers I am sure that the NRE cost goes up exponentially for each process node so it seems pretty viable to have a $3M cost for a 28nm mask if you are having $1M fost a 40nm mask. Maybe someone can enlighten us with some proofs, instead of just words.
I'd love it if spondoolies would let us know exactly how much they spent on NRE. Doubt it would be nearly as expensive as some expect. How do you explain bitmain,asicminer,bitfury,avalon, and a1 clones which have zero problem selling from stock? The majority of the network is powered by miners bought from stock.
Comparing apples with oranges yet again. I think that only Bitmain is a good comparision, the rest aren't. AM had an IPO which means money upfront from people before showing miners, Bitfury sold overexpensive pre-orders for their 400GH/s miners last summer (MetaBank) plus they self mined as soon as it was possible, Avalon had preorders for their B1, B2 and B3 batches and then they had ~$8M in hand for chips pre-orders which were sold to third party before being delivered/refunded to customers and the A1 clones they didn't have to pay for NRE so it was easier for them. The difference is that once those companies were fully funded, they stopped taking preorders (besides KFC/BFL/SPtech). But spondoolies is already is fully funded by VC is it not? I remember something about how they have enough funds to cover all batches if they need to.
The statement is true, but that would mean sacrificing gen3 NRE costs. Thinking into the future isn't your best skill  So you're basically admitting that they are milking their customers just so they can have their gen3 faster? Seems legit. If only AM had taken preorders for their gen3. Sure the specs would have been way off and every customer would have been fucked but they would probably already have gen4 by now. |
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BTCGarden, ROCKMINER, Lightning Asics, etc. combined only account for, say 6 PH/s.
Source? |
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Spondoolies is a much jounger company than most competitors, with less funding.
All of those competitors either had high original funding or pre-orders, even Bitfury had preorders at around $1m to help with his NRE ($1m is the typical amount for 55-40nm NRE).
Wasn't spondoolies already a company before they began making asics for btc mining? If you want to bitch about pre-orders, please go to the KNC thread and ask them why they had their Neptune pre-ordered while they were sitting on around $17m in profits from their first batches.
Yes, there is absolutely no excuse for KNC taking preorders especially after they told us how much profit they made from gen1. |
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This has been debated several times.
Spondoolies ("only") had around $4m in funding (before sp10).
Did they not make any money from the sp10? I'd be surprised if they ended up with less than $10m profit. Parts for sp30 production batches need to be ordered around 2 months in advance, chips more like 3.
This is a lousy excuse. At $0.1/gh (could be much lower) they would only need $1m for 3 months worth of sp30 chips. (at 500 sp30/month) Parts and manufacturing costs alone are around $2m per month (assuming 1000 units produced), and chip NRE is typically around $3-5M, which also needs to be gotten back.
Yes but how much of that $2m/month is long lead time parts? Do you really think NRE is $3-5M? I don't know exactly what makes up the NRE but I can't imagine a simple die shrink costs a bunch. AM's full custom 40nm cost less than 1m NRE. Unless you can produce money from thin air, there really is no other option to have customers pre-pay some orders.
How do you explain bitmain,asicminer,bitfury,avalon, and a1 clones which have zero problem selling from stock? The majority of the network is powered by miners bought from stock. Pre-payment or made-to-order also allows them to estimate their production volume much more accurately.
Yes, the only benefit of preorders is reducing the risk on the company and shifting it to the customers. To the traditional finance and even venture-capital industry, most things bitcoin related are very-high risk and it is therefore hard to find financing.
But spondoolies is already is fully funded by VC is it not? I remember something about how they have enough funds to cover all batches if they need to. If you do find financing, the investors will want a very high percentage of the earnings, which would lead to even higher unit prices for customers.
Yes everyone wants to maximize profits. The great thing about selling preorders is that you don't have to compete with what is available when they finally ship. Do you think spondoolies would have sold sp30s for more than 12K in august had they not been preorders? Of course not. TL;DR: preorders are BS. Get with the times spondoolies. |
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I think this one is a confirmed scam.
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I'm using it as an example to show you how a company who delivered perfectly on time and 10% over spec actually fucked their customers.
KnC fucked their customers when they decided to make 1 (or 2) big ass datorhalls for selfish mining. The loss due to KNC increasing the network hashrate by 4% pales in comparison to the loss due to the preorders. I guarantee nobody would have paid $2/gh for in stock hardware at the end of June with or without the added 4% network hashrate. Just like how nobody would pay $12k for an sp30 even if it was delivered yesterday. |
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---- snip ----
Never bought KnC and that is way off topic since we are talking about SPTech. I'm using it as an example to show you how a company who delivered perfectly on time and 10% over spec actually fucked their customers. Have yet to see SPTech cause a single customer grief and not fix it somehow to the customers satisfaction. I have 2 SP30's on order and I am hopeful they will deliver as promised. You seem to think bashing / questioning SPTech's business practices is relevant? I go off what they have shown to the community not on what you think is right or wrong. I value that SPTech has met all their obligations and made all their customers happy so far as I can tell.
I have to agree. From what I've seen spondoolies has had outstanding customer service. But that does not mean I cannot bash/question their bad business practices. Spondoolies is not immune to criticism like some of you seem to think. I think they would be a nearly perfect example of how an asic manufacturer should be if they had not taken preorders and inflated website prices. (and affiliate advertising) That is the bottom-line. Here is hoping I am just one more happy customer and at this point there is zero evidence to support they will fuck the SP30s delivery up. There is however plenty of posts from you trying to get people not to buy SPTech products. I wonder why?
The thing is they don't even need to fuck up for them to fuck over their customers via preorders. I would actually recommend buying SP hardware if it was sold from stock and for a reasonable price. |
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So my 30-day analysis spreadsheet of B.EXCH is in error then? Is this FINALLY your point?
I haven't seen your spreadsheet but if "You will get a Monthly ROI of 8.155% " is your result then yes, you have probably made an error. Unless there was a dividend calculation error on twentyseventys part (which I don't think there has and I've been following it pretty closely) then the ROI on b.exch should be very close to 2%. ...and why would anyone buy and hold (for dear life) B.EXCH? (B.MINE+B.SELL) That's stupid. Do it for short terms at a profit. WATCH B.SELL's dividends (esp. lack thereof) like a hawk... it's a HOLD or EXIT signal.
Nobody would buy and hold b.exch. That is not how you play the game. You buy b.exch and sell either b.mine or b.sell depending on which one you think is overpriced. There were no dividends for b.sell because the last difficulty increase was less than 6% meaning no leftover change when adjusting the b.mine "daily dividend fund" back to 200 days. FYI what you dismiss as "predicting the future" I subsume as statistical analysis.
What you "subsume" as statistical analysis I call astrology. Please buy a usb miner or something and get a better idea of how the whole mining process works because you seem pretty ignorant on the subject. Why bother predicting? OBSERVE INSTEAD. Can you make money observing? The entire point of the derivative is predicting the future and getting paid for it. If B.SELL misses more dividends in a row, that's the signal to exit all positions while there are still weak hands in the game. It doesn't matter if b.sell receives a dividend the next jump or not (highly unlikely it doesn't as bitcoinwisdom is estimating 12% in 4 days). 98% of the money put in to the derivative will be given back as dividends regardless of the difficulty. |
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There is no fixed ROI you will get. BDD is a zero sum game (minus the fees). That fact that you started calculating a ROI means you will have to re-read the OP.
All this reaction from you over my stating what B.EXCH returned over the past 30 days. Must be completely utter news to you as you've never done spreadsheets on anything before. HINT: Openoffice plus high school math skills. If B.EXCH lost 50% of your btc over a month, would you "play the game?" Course not. If B.EXCH returned 8% profit over the last month, would you "play the game?" Maybe yes. Just settle down. Sounds like 20's is your guru or bosom buddy of yours. So what. There is no fixed ROI you will get.
But you do get a ROI, else why play? Again, this deluge from you is because I did some work and showed that B.EXCH returned 8% for the last 30 days. What is so wrong with my stating that? BDD is a zero sum game (minus the fees).
The NYSE is a zero sum game too. Again, what exactly is your point? That no one is really making money off B.EXCH ? I doubt that... I don't think you understand the game. 1BTC goes in, and exactly (almost) 0.98btc is given as dividends. If you hold on to b.exch (b.sell+b.mine) you are guaranteed a 2% loss (or whatever the fees are) To put it simply, B.exch = b.mine daily div x 200. B.sell dividends = excess btc when difficulty increases lowering the amount of btc required to pay 200 days worth of b.mine divs. BTW as anyone who has been mining for more than a week knows spreadsheets and calculations are just about as accurate as palm readings and fortune cookies. But if you don't believe me then I'd encourage you to read/fully understand the rules and play the game as there is huge money to be made by anyone who can predict the future. |
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if you invest in proper fans u can have almost silent btc garden rig
so far i am happy with the product i got from them.
So how about your share which fans you are using so we all can benefit? Just about any 140mm fan should work. I'm using http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16835103078It's only 0.08A compared to the stock fans at 0.4A and the heatsinks get warm but it is almost completely silent. I need to get within ~2 meters before I can just barely hear the fans. Also I think the 60CFM for the Coolermaster fans is BS. It feels more like ~40CFM but it's still plenty for only 300W. If you have multiple machines or hot ambient air then you might want ~80CFM fans. I was considering these http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16835242011 but the Coolermaster fans were on sale when I was buying. Do you folks have any specifications(noise, CFM) of the current fan (JS14025HB12) they use? Not able to find any info about it online.
I couldn't find the exact CFM or dB ratings but it uses 0.4A so it should be similar to this fan http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16835345070 |
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It is not bad business when you deal with people that actually deliver as promised.
Like KNC? They technically shipped on time and overspec yet I don't see neptune owners particularly overjoyed. I do believe the sp30 will be another solid piece of hardware and they would have no problem selling it from stock but unfortunately they decided to go with the sales method that screws over customers 9 times out of 10. Let me say it again in this thread like I did another, you didn't seem to the be the consumer advocate when group buys of people selling AM products who were most clearly profiteering off the community?
When did this happen? As far as I know AM products have always been sold from stock for prices people were willing to pay. Just about everyone who bought an AM machine made a profit in USD and some even reached ROI in BTC. Seems to me you are protecting your own interests rather than being a Ralph Nader'esque' crusader for the little guy. You do know we see through this right?
You are not fooling too many people with this attack guised as consumer advocacy.
Just like how your attacks on technobit were totally because you didn't want people to get scammed? I have nothing to gain here. I am just letting people know my (and countless others) experience with preorders. It's a shame since it seemed like the entire community was finally finished with preorders. |
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I personally do not get all the FUD directed at SPtech. Anyone with calculator can figure out what is or isn't a good deal. I got a decent deal. Hopeful August delivery is on time. I have faith that SPtech will do what they have promised.
It's not FUD it's just bad business to go with preorders and inflated website pricing. |
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No I mean 8 thousand 9 hundred and ninety-one dollars not 20BTC.
I shopped for a GOOD deal on the Group Buy threads found a great deal... do you need to? I didn't say that I am just sharing what I did.
Jimmy... seriously if you don't like my good news that is ok.
I fail to understand how losing btc due to preorders is good news. How can you bash BFL when literally every single person who preordered their 65nm hardware made a profit in fiat? Some even reached a positive ROI in btc. |
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$8,991.00 for August Delivery. 12 Th/s.
You mean 20 btc? Seems fine to me should make back what I paid. Ordered May 03, 2014. Just have to shop smart for the Group Buys.
You don't even need to shop for special group buys forum exclusive sales. You could always just order in stock hardware from bitmain or btcgarden as you know they won't be ripping you off when you order directly from the site. |
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Well do not stomp on someone trying to promote crypto currency business to the masses.
Any initiative making things easier for people to get into mining should be backed with support. The bigger the interest the better the chance of success for the
whole industry. Thanks for the link.
How to let people know bitcoin is legit and not a scam: - convince naive investonomers they can make money easily without doing anything - give them an easy way to get involved/invest without doing their own research/due diligence - sell them hardware that they think will make a profit - profit from their loss If you want to gamble on bitcoin mining that's completely fine but don't sucker noobs in to it. Just curious have either of you actually tried mining? There is no "making it easier". There are more steps involved with tieing your shoes than with setting up an asic. |
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Is this speculation or just advertising?
Seems like a pretty bad solution to a nonexistent problem. You know that 90% of miners are basically plug and play right? (Some might require a few minutes of setup)
Who exactly is this product targeted towards? Senile old folks? Children?
Are you saying 98% of the masses don't have basic knowledge of how to use a computer?
And that those people should be gambling by mining an incredibly speculative, volatile, and unproven digital currency?
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A little excitement today.
Go my 2nd X-1 in the mail.
Pulled it out of the box and set it up on my desk plugged the cable into the back of the unit and then into the powerstrip. There was a thunderous electrical crackle and spark and the room went dark.
Looks like the power supply died and popped the circuit breaker along with it.
This is the first piece of electrical equipment I have had die straight out of the box that I can remember. It sure does smell bad!
How could this possibly happen when BA is using such premium quality components? /s |
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