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1261  Economy / Securities / Re: MPEx securities discussion thread on: July 25, 2014, 03:14:38 PM
You are focusing on the stocks, but there are also funds and futures available.

The funds are just as much if not more of a joke. MPIF is less of an investment fund and more like mirceas gambling fund.

The only real benefit of the fund is that they will be betting on bitbet.us which, as a result of owning the site, they determine the outcome to their stacked bets (find some house created bets if you don't believe they are unfairly worded or stacked.)

It's also strange that TAT is involved considering he was partially responsible for one of the biggest bitcoin scams yet (neobee)

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Mircea Popescu seems very intent on increasing his bitcoin stash, but at least to me he seems to be doing so in an honest way. MPEx has history, they have been around longer than any other bitcoin stock market. While this does not ensure they will not run away with the money tomorrow, it at least shows they are thinking in the long term. If you believe that the future of global finance is going to work through bitcoins, then in the long run it is better to run a working exchange than to scam a few bitcoins now.

Havelock and mpex are both only ~2 years old which is not nearly long enough to establish trust/competence for either. Neither have been independently audited and neither are properly registered with a securities agency.

However I would have to disagree with the idea that mircea is earning his btc in an honest way. The biggest source of revenue for mpex was the option trading bot which was very efficient at ripping off noobs who are bad at gambling and the second biggest source (now the biggest) is the referral scheme. You pay 30BTC and get back 10 btc per refferal (5btc to referrer and 5btc to referred). Just like your affiliate link this gives people the motivation to perpetuate the scam.

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Do you have any proof that the exchange is manipulated?

Well there's this "S.MPIF liquidity. Obviously as a freely traded asset, S.MPIF may trade for values other than its calculated NAV. ThickAsThievesiii has a 50 BTC piggy bank on MPEx which he can’t withdraw, but will use to try and extract a profit out of providing liquidity" and "IV. As far as equity is concerned, I intend to slowly sell the remainder 40% of non-controlling S.MPOE interest that I currently own"

If you watch the order book for a while you will notice that it looks like very few people if any are trading and it mostly consists of a moving wall (most likely a bot) of ~10 bids/asks. It looks so unnatural is is a joke. I can't prove that all of the trading on mpex is fake but I'm pretty sure the majority of it is. Look at the volume of every other stock and compare it to s.mpoe. How do you explain the fact that s.mpoe ALWAYS has ~20,000 btc trading volume each month and every other stock/fund/future combined has ~10btc/month?

How can you explain the fact that s.mpoe share price never falls despite the lack of revenue? My theory is that mircea is trading with himself to keep the volume and share price high. He would have an incentive to do so because he owns 75% of the shares and 80% of mpex revenue is from recruiting new people to pay the 30btc fee. (last 3 months mpoe had 460btc profit total, 360 btc from new account fees alone)

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I won't go into my analysis of each stock right now, but I think there is value in each stock listed; perhaps not what they are currently trading at, but still non-zero.

I agree. They do have some value but not much.

S.nsa is an incompetent hardware manufacturer (Not even a prototype after a year?) and s.mg looks like a joke. You would think that with ~$5,000,000 in funding the game would look better than runescape classic.

Bitbet.us is somehow valued at 5000 btc even though they earned a staggering 200btc in the past 1.5 years, 75btc of which came from stealing late bets which were not confirmed before the bet was closed (which is illegal however you look at it). If bitbet was listed on any other exchange I'd guess it would be valued at ~500-1000btc.

S.mpoe is the worst of them all. Nearly no sources of revenue other than new accounts and the fees that mircea generates when he trades with himself (doesn't matter to him because he gets back 75% anyways)
1262  Economy / Securities / Re: MPEx securities discussion thread on: July 25, 2014, 01:53:49 PM
You can also use a broker (that's what I do, see link in my sig Smiley )

So you're really only here to make money by advertising your affiliate links correct?
1263  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 25, 2014, 01:43:52 PM
Ant this my friends is an example of buy on rumors...  Roll Eyes

What exactly are the rumors?

Are you referring to the conference AM is holding to discuss the age of the exahash? (6-9 months from now)

I'd say it's most likely legit considering it was forwarded by zhaodong.



Gen3 is dead. We need a gen5 chip from AM. Other chips have twice the efficiency and AM is having trouble getting the price at a competitive price point. At .5BTC/TH we could move some product, otherwise we need ot look at the pipeline.

Are you joking?

How do you figure gen3 is dead? BTCgarden can't even keep up with demand and hashratio is adding more PH every week.

I'd love to know which chips are capable of 0.3w/gh at the wall since AM immersion cooled chips can do 0.6w/gh at the wall.

I also doubt chips are still being sold for more than $0.3/gh. If spongebobtech is correct then they are being sold for $0.2/gh.

Is there any chip manufacturer that is selling for less than $0.3/gh? or $0.85/gh for completed miners?
1264  Economy / Securities / Re: MPEx securities discussion thread on: July 25, 2014, 11:38:20 AM
Serious questions for the OP

1. Why would anyone want to trade on a sketchy website run by a romanian egomaniac who only cares about increasing his own massive stash of btc?

2. Why would anyone want to trade on an exchange which is openly manipulated by the exchange owner?

3. Why would anyone want to use an exchange which makes most of its money from recruiting new members? (see referral scheme)

4. Why would anyone want to trade "synthetic stocks" which are essentially open ponzi schemes?

5. Why would anyone want to trade any of the stocks gambling instruments on mpex? I'd honestly like to know which one you (or anyone who uses mpex) think has value.

There is a reason you don't see mpex mentioned here. For one it is an extremely complicated and well designed scam. The other reason is that there is literally zero value on any stock/instrument offered on the site.

There is no value created on mpex, only gambling and stealing money from noobs. (could be wrong if s.nsa finally made those useless hardware gpg things by now)

The only reason anyone might want to use mpex is because you know that the stocks will never go down in value as long as mircea is manipulating them how he wants.
1265  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 25, 2014, 04:18:17 AM
direct source :http://weibo.com/u/5195261989?from=myfollow_all#1406260962126

Google translated:

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Under the force of the times [million] T operator bitcoin line salon notice: The event is organized by the industry's leading mining machine development company ASICMINER, scheduled for: August 2, 2014 13:00-18:00, place in Shenzhen City South, Nanshan District No. 7, seven high-tech digital technology park, 5th Floor, A3 starting coffee; AM companies invited to participate in the discussion of many of the industry elite, under Bitcoin T operator force millions of times, there will be what Bitcoin industry opportunities and challenge.

Can we get a better English translation?

What exactly is a "salon"? FC is not going to become a hair stylist is he?
1266  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: ntek 1.2th/s miner? on: July 25, 2014, 12:09:25 AM
This company might be legit but their pricing is borderline scammy. Have they forgot to update the prices since january?

Also have they shipped anything besides a generic a1 clone? Like that cube miner which AM supposedly copied?

Don't tell me that a render was as far as they got before attempting to patent someone else's idea as their own.
1267  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] Spondoolies-Tech SP30 - Specs: 6TH/s + 0.46W/GH on: July 24, 2014, 11:30:43 PM
Really?

I thought with the most recent news we were finally done with preorders?

Just give it up. This sad excuse for a forum sale really should have never been approved by sptech.

Please let the kind people of this "group buy" spend their hard earned money on something that won't take who knows how long to deliver who knows what.

Spondoolies will be selling sp30 from stock probably no later than September so if you really want one just wait. No need to send your nonrefundable money months in advance.
1268  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Technobit HEX4M - 400GH BlackArrow based miner reviewed on: July 24, 2014, 12:27:46 AM
Nice review.

Have you tested it undervolted to 0.6V?

Wondering if it can go anywhere near 0.5w/gh at the wall like BA claims.

Thank You

I tried 700Mhz at 0.70v it was hashing with ~260GH and some HW errors, but can't recall the consumption, if you give some settings I'll be glad to test the undervolt capabilities.

Not sure what the clock freq should be at 0.6v. Maybe try ~500MHz?
1269  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Technobit HEX4M - 400GH BlackArrow based miner reviewed on: July 23, 2014, 11:08:27 PM
Nice review.

Have you tested it undervolted to 0.6V?

Wondering if it can go anywhere near 0.5w/gh at the wall like BA claims.
1270  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: btcgarden-AM-v1 only $0.85/GHs 1.045w/GHs. In stock for international selling! on: July 23, 2014, 09:56:59 PM
at 350mhz this unit is hashing at 700GH/sec!

power consumption at XFX 850 Core Bronze+ (not modular, cheap one)

only 780W

nice Smiley

Damn, 1.111w/gh not bad.
What's the poolside hashrate like? I'm worried about the error rate of these chips, especially since there's not an easy way to see it.

Also how's the heat output of the unit? Heat sinks still staying reasonable?

I'm also curious to know how he managed such extreme OC. (Maybe ignoring HW errors?)

I tried 330mhz but HW errors brought the hashrate down to ~280ghs. 320mhz seems to be the sweet spot for my machine giving me an additional 5-10gh without additional HW errors. (only tested 310,320,330).
1271  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: July 23, 2014, 02:02:24 PM
I received two out of the four X-1's I ordered and the first one i plugged in sent a shower of sparks everywhere, so far the 2nd unit hashes anywhere from 9 to 90 Ghz regardless of what the Freq is set to, the errors do seem to drop a bit if it's set to 1000 or below.. Your mileage may vary  Roll Eyes
So that's the second power supply we know to have gone bang. How many more, I wonder?

Funny how the image showing the PSU manufacturer label seems to have "disappeared". Fortunately Firefox's search history comes up trumps, I originally tried finding a "Sunshine AP187" back when the picture was posted. Here's what AliBaba has to say about it.
http://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=ap187+power+supply

Perhaps that's Black Arrow's "surprise"...
http://s18.postimg.org/ak2i9ognd/Way_Of_The_Exploding_PSU.jpg

Nice find. Looks like it's the same manufacturer for the x3 psus: http://m.alibaba.com/product/1936290059/Hot_selling_1430W_dual_output_5V.html

No surprise BA would charge twice what the manufacturer is asking.
1272  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: btcgarden-AM-v1 only $0.85/GHs 1.045w/GHs. In stock for international selling! on: July 23, 2014, 10:42:17 AM
How exactly do you overclock these?

I am guessing it's not "chip_select_delay" from the webui?
1273  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 23, 2014, 09:04:14 AM
Due to ASICMINER failure to address and respond to common shareholders dividends and lack of information issues, a lot here are expecting the price to fall down to IPO price per share.

Bitcoin risen multitudes and multitudes in value since then so even if you overestimate, The IPO price that the shares are expected to fall to is around 0.02374BTC ($15).

That is until the actual dispersement of dividends of gen 4. That is a minimum of 3-4 months along the road............

(I am just gonna leave this here...)

let me guess, you put an order at around 0,023.. well done, cant believe people actually sell into those bids.

It's funny how lophie (who had a large amount of shares iirc) only comes to post negative things in this thread after a massive dump.

Anyone who expects the price to fall to $15/share is an idiot considering as of the last financial update (2 months ago) each share had ~$25 in assets.

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and btw everyone here knows I don't spread FUD to gain profits. I spread real justified fears for the chaos, because it breeds order. And now ASICMINER is NOT in order!

Yes because you totally didn't try to manipulate the market a week ago..
1274  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: July 23, 2014, 02:33:37 AM


and this is maybe the big surprise? we can play angry birds while hashing?

Is this the surprise?

They are late and underperforming but at least you can use android on your miner which everyone wanted right?

Heres my idea for the x10:

-10TH (has to be way more than people are comfortable buying)
- 10 custom made psus (more expensive = better)
- 4 10,000 rpm fans (faster + louder = better)
- Dual 10" super amoled touch screens
- Windows 7 nokia OS (less useful = better)
- 5 speaker surround sound system (with bass)
- electric motor + 5 wheels
- built in minifridge and toaster

Seriously what a joke.
1275  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 22, 2014, 04:13:14 PM
Sure, they can't deliver any proof, but when everything's indicating that AM isn't selling at a profitable price anymore

Source?

Where is everything that indicates AM is selling at a loss?
1276  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - Best W/GH/s ratio, Best $/GH/s ratio on: July 22, 2014, 03:39:12 PM
From my point of view I was right with the diff prediction.

The average difficulty for the past 3 months was 14% instead of 15% so I guess you were right.

Why didn't you just say his estimations were off by 1% instead of dismissing it as "simply unreal"?

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I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

Not sure what's the wrong assumption here.

Hope that helps.

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Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.

Ok after specs, but what was the market $/Gh back then? I can't remember when did FC announced the pricing. Any help?

It was after specs and chip pricing. Just before making that prediction you said:

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It's hard to have miners cheap and profitable for miners. They need to maximize profits for their shareholders and judging by history they have always sold miners at very big prices. It's hard for me to think that now they will do a dumping sale when VMC and Bitmain are under 2$/GH. In a few days we will see the prices.

to which I replied
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They claim it will be the best price per gh.

AM chips will be sold for as low as $0.5/gh.

Anyways it doesn't even matter what information you had before making your prediction. My point is that to make an "accurate" prediction you need information you don't have.
1277  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - Best W/GH/s ratio, Best $/GH/s ratio on: July 22, 2014, 02:44:57 PM
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Must I find all the absurd predictions you have made?

I remember "I predict the whole miner/system (AM) will be well over 2$/GH".

All? You gave one. Please show me all the absurd predictions that I made.

Here are a few from your "group buy".


Please don't troll this thread. Thinking that the difficulty will raise nonstop with 15% is simply unreal and it's bad intended.

I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

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Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.
1278  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 22, 2014, 02:15:17 PM
Lightning asic was only reselling hashratio machines AFAIK.

Here are my estimates:

BTCgarden 3PH-5PH sales + 2PH self mining
Hashratio 1-5PH sales + 10-20PH self mining
Lightning asic 1-2PH self mining
Rockminer 2-3PH sales + 1-2PH self mining
xbtec 2-10PH self mining (Can't really go off their own numbers since they seem somewhat bad at estimations but they are deploying HW apparently)
Edentech ~1PH

AM mine 2-4PH (could be franchising/mining 20+ PH if they found a location with cheap electricity)

Your estimates are way off. Just took the biggest number and added up they give me 54PH/s. Doesn't it seems a bit too much considering that from June until now the network grew only with ~40PH/s? Even the minimum numbers are a bit off. 25PH/s is 60% of the 40PH deployed in the last months. It's more than all other manufacturers combined!

Considering that KnC launched the Neptunes and Bitfury is working on 3 DC (Georgia, Iceland and Finland) I really think that the numbers are just pure imagination.

54PH sold does not mean 54PH is added to the network. It could take weeks before chips start hashing. (longer if you are xbtec)

Also 40PH is way off. Network was 80PH on june1 and is now 140PH.
1279  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - Best W/GH/s ratio, Best $/GH/s ratio on: July 22, 2014, 02:05:47 PM
Do you need to buy pcbs, components, and server psus months in advance? I'm sure they are a few other components that have long lead times but I really doubt the majority do.

As a customer I prefer them to secure the components in advance than to take the risk to buy them from stock when they could be unavailable.

Why? Did they secure 3 months worth of components for the sp10s?

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How can that be? Server psus are probably one of the most common parts they are using.

Do you really think you can buy >2k PSU off the shelf with immediate delivery? Why are you underestimating the sales force of the PSU manufacturers?

I think you are underestimating the production capacity of PSU manufacturers.

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How can you possibly know what the competition will be like in 2 months?

Or are you just completely guessing based on what is currently available?
After more than 1 year in the ASIC scene you should have at least some sort of educated guess. But as previously stated you are very very bad at predicting and acting for the future.

Must I find all the absurd predictions you have made?

I remember "I predict the whole miner/system (AM) will be well over 2$/GH".
1280  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: July 22, 2014, 01:09:13 PM
Hashraio has crowdfund 13 million CNY, which could support producing 3250 miners(cost 4000 CNY). Each miner is 900G/s.
Before crowdfunding, Hashratio has runned a 1P farm.
So together is ~4P

Is that the same 4-5ph hashratio was funding a few weeks ago?

Also are you sure they are only mining with 1ph?
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