The price was updated on August 2nd.
I do remember it being $0.35 before that though.
How much do you think it's the production cost if they sold chips for that price? A while ago FC said wafer cost is less than $0.2/gh. I'd guess ~$0.15/gh for the chips. |
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Yeah, but chips already sold for about $0.35/GH/s in early June, so we're not achieving those prices anymore! But given the trouble with gen 3, we indeed may see gen 4 much earlier than initially planned. We could see sample chips in late October if this is true!
Source for the sales price of $0.35/G in early June, please? 1.9 CNY are about $0.31 at the current market rate. These chips were offered for delivery in mid/late June. The price was updated on August 2nd. I do remember it being $0.35 before that though. |
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It's really not even about who you trust more. It just doesn't make any sense to imagine that the Spongebobtech CEO knows more about Asicminer than Asicminers own CEO. Does Guy also know what color underwear I'm wearing?
Why would so many competitors give Guy all this sensitive info? And what kind of NDA prevents him from disclosing the source, yet allows him to disclose all the info? Ok first statement has no sense. Guy never stated that he knows more about AM than AM's CEO. No logic. He just stated what AM's CEO told him. Nothing more. Guy didn't say he knew more about AM than FC but you are the one perpetuating the idea. Friedcat has never said AM was selling chips at wafer cost. Guy started the rumor based on what he heard from a chip integrator and FC outright denied it. Also I am imagining that a meeting between 2 CEOs is a bit different than a 2 regular persons meeting (like you and me) so that's why you don't get this thing about all the sensitive info. You should start thinking outside of your own box of thoughts and admit that not everyone is like you.
Why would any CEO give sensitive/private company info to a competitors CEO who repeatedly spreads rumors on the forums? I'd trust a teenage girl with a secret more than Guy. So you gave me as examples some future predictions and you are comparing them to statements about past and present FACTS! You are either trying to mislead again or your personal logic doesn't let you see that you are comparing apples with oranges. In your own little box of thoughts you think that Guy is wrong about some FACTS just because he was wrong on some future predictions which may or may not come true. I could write a short novel full of nothing but Guy's BS quotes/competition trashing but it's not worth the time. You already know that Guy is constantly wrong about his "insider info" but you're willing to perform mental gymnastics to avoid acknowledging it. Please, for the sake of everyone's intelligence, stop making baseless assumptions and spreading rumors. |
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The sales price of chips stay a relatively high margin because our option of building our own devices and sell/deploy is always wide open.
Basing your assumptions on a rumor from a competing company's CEO who has been wrong countless times and almost never right is simply idiotic. FC has outright denied the rumors started by Guy that AM is selling at cost and FC's word can be taken at face value unlike Guys. Guy has never been a reliable source and he has proven he will say anything that could garner a few more preorders. Then it's a matter of who we trust. You trust FC. I trust Guy. It's really not even about who you trust more. It just doesn't make any sense to imagine that the Spongebobtech CEO knows more about Asicminer than Asicminers own CEO. Does Guy also know what color underwear I'm wearing? Why would so many competitors give Guy all this sensitive info? And what kind of NDA prevents him from disclosing the source, yet allows him to disclose all the info? Care to elaborate the countless times when he was wrong? And don't give me the SP30 specs. Just to list a few: I have a second batch order.... Your opinion... Have I to request a refund ?  Taped Out in March: https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78TSMC 20nm cycle time (masks creation) is 4-5 months. Samples in July / August. Miners probably in August / SeptemberSo let's try this - with a purchase today, an "In Stock" SP10 will ship when? To keep it simple assume 1 SP10+SP30 April/July bundle.
Mid April and beginning of July. We don't stock. We build test and ship. Could be bitfury, asicminer, avalon, bitmain, innosilicon, knc, blackarrow or maybe a company that has yet to reveal itself.
Hello my friend, I've missed you. Is is too boring at one of AM threads ? None of those companies can match the price point of SP30 with current gen and Q3 planned hardware. Not to mention the W/GH/s advantage. (this one was deleted for being so wrong: https://bitcointa.lk/threads/ann-spondoolies-tech-launches-a-new-line-of-asic-miners-shipping-in-7-days.284243/page-68#post-6031635) |
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Do you think that the reason you are constantly insulted may be because you are constantly making absurd/baseless assumptions about how much AM is failing/will fail? Well neither you or any of the shareholder don't know for sure if I am wrong or not so you don't know that I am making absurd assumptions or not until you see exactly for how much profit they sell the chips. As for baseless, well they aren't baseless. I am basing my assumption on what Guy said and also on the lack of dividends/information/other projects. A 28nm mask+chips don't cost 10M$. The sales price of chips stay a relatively high margin because our option of building our own devices and sell/deploy is always wide open.
Basing your assumptions on a rumor from a competing company's CEO who has been wrong countless times and almost never right is simply idiotic. FC has outright denied the rumors started by Guy that AM is selling at cost and FC's word can be taken at face value unlike Guys. Guy has never been a reliable source and he has proven he will say anything that could garner a few more preorders. So I guess this means you've completely justified ripping off naive noobs by selling them SPtech hardware?
Serious question, if you don't care the slightest about ROI, why not just be a used car salesman for BFL instead? Just like spongebobtech, bfl makes reliable and pretty hardware at an incredibly unreasonable price.
I told you in the past that I am not selling anything. I am just supporting their hardware. Having an affiliate link and praising their quality hardware isn't selling. So you are just advertising and earning money for every sale you are responsible for correct? I'm not sure how that isn't a form of selling. Again, why not sell advertise hardware for BFL? |
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I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities. I don't know if you are a shareholder or if you are affiliated with any other company, but I am glad to hear someone else have this opinion. I expressed it in the past too, but having an affiliate link in the signature got me only insults. what like rockminer? they still have to buy the chips from AM Sure, but at a minimal/nonexistent profit for AM. Do you think that the reason you are constantly insulted may be because you are constantly making absurd/baseless assumptions about how much AM is failing/will fail? Edit: An unsatisfied customer of the Tubes:
So I guess this means you've completely justified ripping off naive noobs by selling them SPtech hardware? Serious question, if you don't care the slightest about ROI, why not just be a used car salesman for BFL instead? Just like spongebobtech, bfl makes reliable and pretty hardware at an incredibly unreasonable price. |
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They are advertising annual returns of 1,200,000,000%... Maybe Asicminer should forget about gen4 and invest in this solid business proposition instead. According to my calculations if AM would invest only $1m in this totally legit company they would earn more than $12 trillion USD within a year or ~24 billion bitcoins (60,000 btc/share). Honestly that has to be the most obvious ponzi I've ever seen. At least offer something semi-realistic like 0.1% daily. I wonder if anyone is actually oblivious enough to fall for that scam or if they just take advantage of the referral scheme and try to get out quick enough before it collapses. |
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Jimmothy, thanks for the guidance. I know the coin foundry guys and I know data centers. I clearly don't know as much about mining as most of the folks on here, I haven't had the time in Bitcoin that I have had in data centers.
I have to assume that not everyone owns the fastest rigs. What if they did? What if they owned more efficient rigs? Why doesn't everyone just run those? Why aren't those the standard? What do you use?
What does an efficient design of a rig or a facility do to the profitability? Sure you can buy more efficient hardware like SP31 or S3+ but none are shipping now. Is the only unit of measurement the Kw or Kwh?
What I don't see calculations for in that calculator are CapEx allowances, rent, taxes (ad velorum, sales, utility), debt service, insurance, infrastructure/tenant improvements, wiring, ducting, cabinets, labor, permits, security (physical & logical), and legal. Telecom services, shipping, travel, and all of the other things that are material costs of a business.
The important units are $/GH(capex), W/GH(efficiency), and $/kwh(opex). I appreciate the link to the mining calc. Where do you mine? At what scale? How do you get a good deal?
I stopped mining and sold my hardware because I pay ~$0.15/kwh which is not viable in the long run. Giant scale mining operations are already beginning to take advantage of <$0.05/kwh locations. So what makes a great deal and why? I know you don't speak for the global community, I am curious...
A good deal would be less than $0.1/kwh without a ridiculously long term contract. (less than 3 months would be ideal.) Nobody wants to pay for 12 months of hosting when you stop earning a profit after 4-5. |
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3) As for the growth potential... this is the bitcoin mining industry, one of the few industries in the world that actually has a very well defined cap to its growth, at least in the medium term (likely next few years) while transaction fees remain a small part of block rewards. Not only does that bound any potential growth, it also makes the competition even more fierce, since competing companies can't simply expand into new and bigger markets or create new demand where demand didn't exist before, rather, they all compete for the same fixed, predetermined, amount of mineable bitcoins.
The above logic lets you actually calculate the network speed, and therefore TAM for asicminer if you make assumptions for things like electricity cost and BTC exchange rate. I did this a year ago, and with the current exchange rate, it seems we should be heading towards a 5-600PH network at $700/TH. So the TAM is on the order of 300PH which would be worth ~$200M. Or ~400K BTC. Or ballpark of ~1 BTC per AM share. Thats the total available market, how much AM will grab of that, and how much profit margin they will achieve, who knows, but I doubt its gonna be 100% of the market at 100% profit. The fact that you have to make assumptions about electricity cost, btc exchange rate, hardware cost, hardware efficiency, and miner rationality means you can't actually predict the future hashrate. |
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Looks nice but I'm interested to know exactly how effective. Do you have a total hashrate for those machines? |
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Batches are not preorders, its sensible shipping. You simply can't click your fingers and make 800 units appear out of thin air, nor can you construct or test them in one space at one time. You have to build and ship them in smaller quantities and over a sustained period of time. Its not as good as in stock hardware no and so holds a penalty, but it is NOT preordering.
I can understand your point for the S3+ but the L1 is clearly a preorder. **Chip Efficiency: Efficiency is a simulation result. Though BITMAIN has good track records of making power effective miner, this is only simulation. The final number depends on the testing results before shipping and it is not binding term. |
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You can mine profitably so long as you build a business model that insures it. Thinking you can buy a couple of rigs and put them in your garage in scottsdale AZ from June-September and profitably mine is not going to work. Mining at scale and placing bigger bets to buy in is what is required. Fewer and fewer people will have the balls resources or desire to go bigger and bigger to get a seat at the table.
The coin foundry value prop as I understand it is:
The sites are there ready to go in a real building.
You overnight rigs today, you are mining in 24-36 hours with whatever rigs you can mount and turn on
How many BTC can you mine with 1 MW in 24 hours? (I don't know)
Is it enough to cover the cost for that day and the weeks required to squeeze 58% premium over mining 1MW of BTC?
Those are the business questions that need answering.
Someone who wants to put 500 rigs in the site over the next 8 weeks seems to think it's a screaming deal. Dallas will be gone by 9/30 or sooner. New rigs are shipping and they want the jump on the hash rate to get going now vs, trekking around eastern Washington for 2 weeks to find a building. Then another 4 weeks to have a utility design a distribution system for them and drop in gear to step down the voltage, and then coordinate rack implementations, cable runs, and wiring installs (2 weeks) before the rigs get there and then have the people, process, and space to unpack rigs and get em racked.
It's all super easy until you start...
I'm sorry but you sound like a used car salesman. Are you the same person who designed the website? (who clearly has no clue how bitcoin mining works) Your company is offering a horrible deal, no question about it. A 12 month contract locked in with such shitty rates would mean a guaranteed loss of ~$0.5m assuming you have free hardware and it starts mining today. Nobody gets free hardware so a more reasonable estimation would be a loss of ~$1.3m. http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=27428630902&dcosts=0&diff_mincrease=15&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=1000000000&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=487.49&dpowcon=1000000&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.175&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=0&action=calc |
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For the believers in "patience" here, those saying that AM will eventually deliver a profit, honest question:
What is your criteria for when you will no longer believe this? What evidence would make you cut your losses and run? A length of time that passes with no news or no dividend? A certain point in the share price? The failure of gen 4 to materialize in 2015? Or is it a matter of eternal unquestioning belief unless friedcat comes out and says that he is calling it quits?
There are plenty of reasons I'd no longer believe in AM but those reasons don't include an extended silence or a massive dumping on havelock. A complete failure of gen4 would be the end of AM (IMO) so I would definitely dump my shares, but a hugely successful gen4 could also mean a return to 1btc/shares. |
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As I'm sure you are aware, that thread does not provide an accurate or reasonable recent valuation of AM. Not sure what you're expecting. Nobody here has the insider info to give you an "accurate or reasonable" valuation. (Besides FC) |
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$125k/month/MW is absurd.
No sane person will ever consider hosting at those rates.
You might get some consideration at $125k/year.
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No, I mean not like cex.io but something like someone need money and he decide to sell all or parts of his gh's to another person without selling PBM account. Like moving gh's between accounts. As I'm remember PBminig told that he's planning such option.
We may have said we would consider it, but we never said we were planning it. So far, we have been doing fine without implementing this option. It would also take a lot of work on the development side. CEX.IO is your best bet if you are looking for something like this. Since you're answering questions, why do you send the payouts and payments through a mixer? |
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Let's bring the 60PH/s of chips issue again to discussion. At 0.5$/GH you need 120M$ just for the miners,
That's not how math works. If they wanted to build a 30PH farm at $0.35/gh they would only need $10,500,000. Whoops! Math mistake. It's 30M, not 120M. As for the 10M$ that is only for miners. What about deployment costs? Does AM has 10M$ to deploy that hashpower? Don't think so. I actually made a math mistake. I was including the chip cost at $0.35/gh but forgot the chips are already paid for so it would be less than that. AM might only need ~$6M to produce 30PH worth of hardware and maybe ~$2M to deploy it all. |
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Let's bring the 60PH/s of chips issue again to discussion. At 0.5$/GH you need 120M$ just for the miners,
That's not how math works. If they wanted to build a 30PH farm at $0.35/gh they would only need $10,500,000. |
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Thinking that AM is the only one that can sell hardware at less than 50c and still make a profit would be incredibly naive (especially since that you know the AM case already).
I wouldn't go that far. I don't think they are making a profit out of that cost. They need to get rid of the 40nm chips asap. Why would they sell hardware for no profit while they are trying to accumulate hardware for their massive datacenter? Because they ordered too many chips? The question that you should ask should be why would they sell hardware from the first place when they could mine with a part of it from the start? So you think they are selling hardware at no profit as a charity because they have extra chips? There is an obvious reason for selling hardware instead of using it to mine. (profit) |
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