Now I don't know if you have stake or just salary in the company. But whatever it is, someone is getting hurt if you show this image that pisses people off. It does not matter if you don't care, customers do. I have coached many professionals and this kind of issue is a classic derailer. And it is the derailer that if not fixed, in my experience has led to somewhere between 70-80% getting fired.
If you have stake, you are probably burning your own preorder money right now by behaving like this. People are always watching.
He is the Chief Operations Officer, so I would imagine that he has some equity. C level positions usually get some. Except, you're the one obsessing about BFL and me personally, heh. You might want to check yourself  Enduring your irrational outbursts when I present you with evidence (usually your own post history) that you have contradicted yourself is hardly an obsession. If you actually addressed peoples claims, there wouldn't be a long history of posts. There would be 1 thread with about 10 posts in it. Instead, you string things out with insults and evasions. You have repeatedly claimed that you do this to increase the number of investors who give you money via pre-orders. |
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Not sure about any BFL Wafers breaking, but judging from Josh's behavior on the forums lately, I think his mind may be breaking.
Can anyone over there at BFL try to slip some lithium or anti-psychotics in his drinks, please ?
It is just absolutely mind-boggling how his leash-holders allow him to continue like he does in public. Has developed this split-personality complex that Inaba/BFL_Josh-Zerlan are two different personalities !
I mean name calling ? Is he still in grade school ? This is the public face of Butterfly Labs ?
For shame !
EDIT: Speak of waffles, perhaps we should send Josh a Blue Waffle ?
I don't think it's fair to characterize using a different voice in different contexts as "psychotic." Do you speak to your boss the exact same way as you speak to your close friends? No, you use different filters in different contexts. He's on record as saying that Inaba is Josh speaking as Josh (unfiltered), and BFL_Josh is Josh speaking as the BFL rep. Whether that's a good idea is debatable, but hardly "psychotic." I can understand people being upset with BFL, but the level of willful distortion lately on the part of detractors is off the charts. If you want to criticize someone effectively, you need to keep a modicum of credibility for yourself. Different voice is right. I had not given it much thought, but now that you bring it up I don't know. Josh doesn't seem to have any empathy towards anyone who might have an issue with BFL. Quite the opposite actually. He is persistently hostile, and from our point of view very manipulative. According to the stats, psychopaths make up as much as 1% of the population so it is not out of the realm of possibility that Josh could be one. Manic depressive disorder would also explain his outbursts. He seems to disappear for lengthy periods, only to burst onto the scene calling people liars and trolls but seldom addressing the underlying issues. He does not seem rational or have any patience. |
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k9quaint, you, once again, are apparently too dense to understand the difference between being wrong and "misrepresentation." Since you're unable to even differentiate between two very simple words, we really don't have much to discuss. I recommend trying to learn basic English before trying to debate me. You're pathetic it at.
On advice from your lawyers, you will not admit to making misrepresentations here. I do not expect you to. Nor am I debating you, I know you can never admit to what you have done. I am doing this so that when people ask if they should order BFL we can point them to this thread and they can watch you twist in the wind. And it is you who should be taking English classes (as others have pointed out). But lets look at the BFL clown crew: Tom is a scammer, no surprise there. BitcoinINV, another scammer... no surprise there. CreativeX is still around trolling, as is Syke. Cedivad and Abracadabra have a BFL order now, shocker. ElectricMusic has stopped? He drops in to troll now and again, but I've had him on ignore for a long time. Abracadabra... yep BFL order. That leaves SolarSilver.
Let's tally:
9 BFL clown crew total.
2 Scammers
2 BFL converts
4 Trolls still trollin' hard
1 MIA (SolarSilver)
So yeah... 44% still trolling, 22% BFL, 22% scammers and 11% Other. Gonna go with: k9quaint: FAIL
Just you and Kano. And you wouldn't even have him if Avalon had ponied up a free unit for him. And me. And perhaps SgtSpike. And probably others reasonably afraid to enter this discussion: I've mostly stayed out of it, because the level of hate and vitriol spewed at anyone who takes a rational position is off the charts. Fortunately, I wore my flame-retardant Underoos today. So I'm all set. You seem a reasonable sort by your post history. But you didn't even mention BFL until April 1st, and then you posted in the shipping bet thread. I believe we were discussing the people who have been "constantly trolling" in BFL threads. I wouldn't count your post history as someone who has been consistently participating in the discussion. Josh labels the people who post counter arguments to his claims as "trolls" and there was just a small number of us and it is the same old people. My counter assertion was that from our point of view, the people who disagree with Josh are a varied lot (except for PuertoLibre who has been here from the start) and it was just Josh and Kano who have been "trolling" in the BFL threads consistently. Josh especially by calling people douches, liars, trolls, etc. SgtSpike has been around a lot as well. You seem to support BFL's claims that they were just mistaken and there was no malice involved. Let us examine just one "mistake" for the moment: How can you explain their statement that all 3 devices were sent for FCC testing (according to Josh in Nov 2012) at the same time and should be certified in 2 weeks. Fast forward to March, when there was only 1 device operating and it remained on the BFL premises (according to Luke) but somehow "shipped" to Luke. 3 working products supposedly sent to the FCC in November, I presume the 5, 25, and 50 GH/s devices. The Jalapeno could not have existed because it could not be powered by USB, it drew too much wattage, let alone the heat problems requiring them to use 25GH/s case and heatsink for it. Yet somehow, they sent a working version of all these devices to be certified? How on earth could the Chief Operations Officer be so out of touch with the state of BFL's products that he could make this mistake? |
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k9quaint, you, once again, are apparently too dense to understand the difference between being wrong and "misrepresentation." Since you're unable to even differentiate between two very simple words, we really don't have much to discuss. I recommend trying to learn basic English before trying to debate me. You're pathetic it at.
On advice from your lawyers, you will not admit to making misrepresentations here. I do not expect you to. Nor am I debating you, I know you can never admit to what you have done. I am doing this so that when people ask if they should order BFL we can point them to this thread and they can watch you twist in the wind. And it is you who should be taking English classes (as others have pointed out). But lets look at the BFL clown crew: Tom is a scammer, no surprise there. BitcoinINV, another scammer... no surprise there. CreativeX is still around trolling, as is Syke. Cedivad and Abracadabra have a BFL order now, shocker. ElectricMusic has stopped? He drops in to troll now and again, but I've had him on ignore for a long time. Abracadabra... yep BFL order. That leaves SolarSilver.
Let's tally:
9 BFL clown crew total.
2 Scammers
2 BFL converts
4 Trolls still trollin' hard
1 MIA (SolarSilver)
So yeah... 44% still trolling, 22% BFL, 22% scammers and 11% Other. Gonna go with: k9quaint: FAIL
Just you and Kano. And you wouldn't even have him if Avalon had ponied up a free unit for him. |
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I hope that " Due to high number of messages, please allow 1-2 weeks for responses from office@butterflylabs.com" isn't people requesting refunds. I wonder if they have enough cash to refund all their pre-orders, or will it become first come first serve? |
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So, Mr. Zerlan. Care to explain further about "so many lies and deceit perpetrated by people with agendas, unbalanced sense of reality or just plain crazy" It would seem clear to me that YOUR agenda is to shirk all responsibility or honor for your prior commitments. He is probably busy deleting the posts.  |
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BFL has been caught in so many misrepresentations to date, all of which has been documented to death on this forum.
People claim there is no evidence of "intent". While defending their specs they made claims about the state of their chips and performance measurements of units that supposedly existed. Given what we know now, those claims could not possibly have been merely in error. Except... that's not really true. Not terribly surprising coming from you, but none the less. Trolls like you like to trot this out but to date, not a single one has been able to produce any evidence to back up this claim. Meanwhile, in reality-land, I have provided numerous links and evidence to the contrary. It's funny how you make these claims but never once back up your statements, but you keep at it, hoping someone will believe your BS. Here is you claiming 60w power usage and shipping in 2 weeks in Nov 2012: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=119460.msg1314947#msg1314947Here is you claiming the Jalapeno was getting FCC approval in 2 weeks and you were waiting for the test lab to issue the test report in Nov 2012. Oh, and that you were testing "all the devices at once" as if you actually had stuff that worked. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=119351.msg1314335#msg1314335Here is you betting on BFL @ 1.1GH/watt https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=119351.msg1314335#msg1314335And that is after looking through a few pages of you calling everyone on these boards trolls and douchebags. I'd rather not look through hundreds of posts of you being an ass. I will just find one of the summary threads where this has been composed and collated nicely. The reason why so many of these threads appear is because of people like you. You refuse to read the evidence presented in past threads, so we have to rehash the same stuff over and over again. Then Josh and his Sockpuppet show appears and starts yelling about trolls and calling everyone names.
Ahh the wonderful sockpuppet defense. For the record, BFL has exactly zero sockpuppet accounts. Just like poor little Bryan Micon and his claims of a massive BFL Bot army downvoting his ridiculous little Reddit rants, it's just impossible for people like you, who have a tenuous grasp on reality at best, to believe that rational people actually evaluate the situation and the facts in a coherent manner and come to the logical conclusion. Your little warped sense of reality doesn't really hold up to any sort of thorough or really even a cursory investigation. It's why this particular subforum on Bitcointalk is the ass end of the internet - so many lies and deceit perpetrated by people with agendas, unbalanced sense of reality or just plain crazy, most rational people stay far, far away from it. There's a little handful of you trolls who troll every BFL thread. I wouldn't even be posting here if there was moderation weeding out your useless little diatribes, but since there's none, here I am, arguing with idiots. It's like a hobby at this point. One I could certainly leave behind and be glad to be rid of it, let me tell you. Maybe one day we'll get some real moderation here and Bitcointalk can become a place where rational adults can have discourse again, but not until people like PL, Syke, k9quaint, etc are all perma-banned. It is actually a handful of people who defend BFL. A couple of low post count month old accounts that only post in BFL threads, Kano and you. We know why Kano is pimping for BFL. It doesn't look like the same cast of characters attacking you as before:  Except for PuertoLibre it is a whole new cast. |
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Not what I was expecting when I clicked on this thread.
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if you are so offended, why not ask for a refund?
I've got a better idea. How about you pay the 1000 BTC for the bet you lost over blowing your power usage estimates. How exactly would that address Tehfiend's concerns. Oh that's right, it wouldn't. It might give him confidence in BFL's commitment to meeting their promises. |
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I just can't understand how anyone could defend BFL unless he/she has an incentive to do it (promised early machine or something) or hopes he might get one by placing himself in their backs.
I do it because I don't like people to be wrong on the internet. If something needs to be corrected, I correct it. BFL didn't purposefully do anything malicious, so I defend them. They don't deserve to have various non-customers on the Bitcointalk forum slander them. BFL has been caught in so many misrepresentations to date, all of which has been documented to death on this forum. People claim there is no evidence of "intent". While defending their specs they made claims about the state of their chips and performance measurements of units that supposedly existed. Given what we know now, those claims could not possibly have been merely in error. The reason why so many of these threads appear is because of people like you. You refuse to read the evidence presented in past threads, so we have to rehash the same stuff over and over again. Then Josh and his Sockpuppet show appears and starts yelling about trolls and calling everyone names. Right up until the end, people believed in Pirate40 and defended him. I hope this is not history repeating itself. Yet again. |
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when you are 6 months late and 100% ROI has gone from hours to months during that 'gap' people have a right to bitch........
Hours lol, how much do you think BTC was worth 6mths ago to support you claim? corrected to reflect days instead of hours. still a long way away from the ROI it will be when/if regular customers are seeking it from the units that were promised to be delivered in october. BTC was worth the same then as it is now, 1 BTC = 1 BTC. meaning if one invested BTC to acquire a device that allows them 'produce' BTC then that is how their ROI would factor. BFL products are not priced in BTC, your analogy is irrelevant, you might as well have used the price of oil or gold, or even LTC as a comparison. If I spent USD to acquire a device that produced USD and the device was from Europe and was priced in Euros, would you want to limit the discussion on ROI only to Euros? No. That would be nonsense. |
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So here's what fascinates me:
Why are people who aren't even customers so much more upset about this stuff than actual customers? It's seriously a lot of time and (apparent) emotional investment into a game in which you have no skin. Pure troll factor?
Us old timers lived through the Mybitcoin.com debacle. We lived through the Bitcoin Savings and Trust implosion. We were here for the Bitcoinica apocalypse. We saw Mooncoin run off with everyone's money. We saw exchanges get hacked and coins get stolen. We have seen fraud after scam after con appear on these forums. Noobies show up with dollar signs in their eyes, get fleeced of their cash and dumped in the gutter. It is not healthy to let this sort of thing continue. A bit of skepticism is healthy. Trying to shout down skeptics only adds fuel to the fire, and is usually an indication that the shouters have something to hide. |
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So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day. That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month. A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate. If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.
Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.
Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back. Please cite your math for 18 months. Fine, lets double the hashrate to 972 TH, that's .25 BTC a day, or $35 USD, or $1050. Oh no, 2.5 month 100% ROI! Stop the train! Holy crap! All of this assumes you START with a difficulty of 972 TH. The fact that we would be starting with 1/100th of that or thereabouts means your 2.5 months is reduced drastically. The BTC/USD price I quoted was $14. This was to illustrate that your USD returns depend on the BTC price remaining high for the next 3 months. .25 BTC at $14 is $3.50, not $35. That chart has the hash rate doubling every 1.5 months. So for a device delivered Aug 1st, the first 1 and 1/2 months you would earn about $252 dollars, the second month and a half you would earn $126, then $63, then $31 etc. I was being generous with the 18 months, according to that trend a single delivered in August and priced at $1200 would never pay itself off. Obviously, at some point the network hash rate will level off, it cannot double in strength forever. Obviously, nobody can know what the price of Bitcoin will be in August. |
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So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day. That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month. A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate. If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.
Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.
Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back. Plus, Singles do not yet exist except in the plans of BFL. Of course, if BTC goes to $5000 the story will be different. Josh, can i ask you kindly leave this thread and focus your energy on the SCs and little SCs? This forum is hopeless man
He should be focusing his energy elsewhere, but I would be surprised if he took your advice. If the forum is hopeless, why are you here? |
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I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math. Show your work or you're just making crap up.
There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond. I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .
I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.
Break even after 2-3 years is horrible returns. Are you a customer? If so , get your refund and leave others to make their own decision. If not? stfu and get off. Ppl can deal with their financial investment without you being their "advisor" Clearly, you read neither the title of the thread nor the original post where advice was solicited about whether or not to cancel a BFL order. |
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If they are preorder customers why have they not gotten a refund and moved on with their life
I support Bitcoin, and it's a principled stance - What is the point in waiting to receive a refund when we've waited this long already for the carrot, and it is so tantalizingly being waved in front of us, so close within reach... for months now... I agree but I am trying to understand the motivation of a vocal minority that predominates almost every thread. If they are truly still customers of BFL, waiting on a preorder, then there is an interesting dichotomy going on. If one spends hours a day denigrating a company but still retains hope that they will deliver, their is an inherent conflict at work that is fascinating. I would expect that the most vocal of the detractors are not perspective BFL customers and if the case, I am interested in understanding their motivation and the benefit they derive from their activities (an activity they pursue with great vigor) What you are lacking is a historical perspective. If you go to earlier BFL complaint threads (there are many vintages) you won't find myself and several others in them. It was only recently that anything concrete emerged from BFL that was worth speculating on. From a personal perspective, BFL has been a godsend. They sucked the air out of the ASIC market and delivered nothing in terms of hash rate to the network for months. This has enhanced the profit of every bitcoin miner. From an overall perspective of Bitcoin, it is not good if another scam engulfs the community. Since I am long Bitcoin, I want to provide the skepticism I think is due and appropriate to the get rich quick schemes that abound on these forums. From my point of view, it is a vocal minority supporting BFL. The same cast of characters (Josh/Inaba, Kano, etc) are attempting to shout down observations, questions, and criticism. Smothie and PuertoLibre have been vocal opponents of BFL for quite some time, but I suspect that is personal due to the personality conflict that exists between Josh/Inaba and a number of people on these forums. If you want a different cast of characters and some historical perspective, you can read the Kano/Avalon flame war. Here is a post of Kano telling jgarzik to "fuck off and learn to read". https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=142083.msg1518424#msg1518424That thread also touches on the genesis of Kano's support for BFL. I have never ordered from BFL, I have no current plans to do so. I obtain my ASIC mining hardware from other sources, but I have no official (or unofficial) ties to an ASIC mining hardware developer/manufacturer. |
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Try and sell it. People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.
Unlikely to meet ROI? Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million. Now, difficulty is just over 10 million. That's a 5.5x increase. And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC. Now, the price is $140. That's a 23x increase. So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh. And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment. If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return. Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012. More like 21%, but yes, I agree. What's your point? BFL never made any guarantees regarding how profitable their device would be. They never made any guarantees regarding difficulty or a certain number of BTC generated per day. They've always offered refunds to anyone who asked for one. And it has always been the choice of the customer to risk their money on a pre-order of promises. The risks buying BFL hardware have been and still are: 1) the delivery date 2) the specs 3) the BTC/USD exchange rate 4) the network hashrate 5) reliability of the unit Ordering a BFL unit (assuming it was delivered anywhere near spec and within 6 months) would probably be profitable. It probably would not be "wildly profitable" and there might be a better use of funds (Avalon, etc). Back to the original quote I was responding to, which stated that "People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI." This person was clearly speaking of current prices (in USD) for ASICs. My response is that the notion that ASICs would not pay for themselves if ordered today is completely absurd, because it would take 1.75 million Single SC's shipped out before a BFL ASIC would become unprofitable to mine with at current prices. So somehow, FlappySocks thinks that BFL (or another ASIC vendor) is going to ship out 1.75 million units before a device ordered today would fully pay for itself. I'm just saying that that idea is flat-out wrong, unless FlappySocks expects the USD price of BTC to drop drastically. Looking from a USD perspective, a unit ordered today would most certainly pay for itself as long as the BTC price doesn't move downward.
The nature of most mining solutions (excluding electricity costs) is that they eventually pay for themselves. Even GPUs bought today might eventually pay for themselves. If people are paying "crazy money", then they are not paying list price. I think that poster was saying that the units ordered today are unlikely to meet the bubbly expectations of ROI that people currently have. Some combination of delays, spec miss, btc price, and hash rate rise will deflate those expectations dramatically. |
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Try and sell it. People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.
Unlikely to meet ROI? Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million. Now, difficulty is just over 10 million. That's a 5.5x increase. And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC. Now, the price is $140. That's a 23x increase. So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh. And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment. If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return. Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012. |
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and a troll will always be a troll. Especially one hta is too dumb to know he is being trolled and keeps replying to me,
There must be something important posted in this thread. Inaba is running pages of troll posts to bury it. I wonder if it is the order number being wrong/impossible? |
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