Yes, they are only selling near 30k this time around. Good news for uncertainty.

edit: Nothing depends on anything. The price is make believe, and reality is not that important.

Confirmed bad news = confirmed triangle breakdown.

Triangle breaking down.

All hail KARHU!

Agreed. Bitcoin is stable now. There is so much commerce and trading that it has now found equilibrium, and we are about to enter a golden age of stability and prosperity.

All your coins belong to US!

Thanks, I prefer Dogecoins. Did you know that Dogecoin's amount of transaction recently eclipsed Bitcoin's?

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/01/14/dogecoin-transactions-outpacing-those-in-bitcoin-heres-why-thats-not-surprising/

I'm aware of the possibility, and as I've said before, it's impossible to prove or disprove this.

However, mining is fairly distributed and, because of the ASIC boom, the distribution probably changed from the previous GPU one. I'm not sure how hedge funds would go on about contacting miners due to that distribution, or vice versa. There is no real futures market I'm aware of. If you want to make that case, then I think it's more likely for hedge funds to set up mining operations of their own; purely for accumulation.

In any case, there will be a large portion of the daily mined coins that goes to miners who have no channels to reliably sell Bitcoins other than exchanges – that is my speculation and I believe it's a reasonable and educated guess based on the things I listed here and the previous post.

Right now, supply on exchanges is mildly increasing and if you add up multiple exchanges together, it is not all that low. If there is accumulation, then the accumulators either ran out of powder or they don't wish to accumulate anymore. Of course, this is all too easily visible based on SecondMarket's change in buying behavior alone: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

Sell everything. Take out all credit you can. Bitcoin is a sure source of free money. You will be a multimillionaire in 2 years. Source: log charts.

Please don't take this seriously.

I forgot about that. Even though I'm not sure a week of market suspension (just looked it up on the charts, there's data from 19th and after that, 26th of June) is enough to disturb that, it's a good argument particularly in conjunction with an initial drop of the same magnitude, thanks for reminding me.

I have to say though, in 2011, we did bounce off 10 to 25, an enormous bull trap in proximity of the 32 high, and on the 13th of June, it left this price behind to 18-17, so I'm leaning towards discounting this week's pause. The difference is that this countertrend rally off 10 lasted a mere 1-2 days. At the time, I would have easily believed MtGox's 1068 to be equivalent to that 25 since it was a countertrend of only 3 days.

I don't know of any elaborate writings on this, but I can tell you that it's not a problem for the network: Difficulty would just decrease. The network functions fine at any difficulty. Remember, Satoshi mined on his own in the beginning. The only problem could possibly be an extremely abrupt decrease so that transactions take too long to go through, but at 10 minutes per block, how likely is that?

Electricity in some parts of the world or situations is free, and ASICs have an extremely high efficiency, so it probably won't happen for a longer time. Once an ASIC is unprofitable, the owner will simply sell it to another who has lower costs. Mining is a professional business, the resources will get allocated to those who can make best use of it.

Yes … Charts.

Here are charts for difficulty (alltime log chart included): http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ Compare them with the price chart and it is easy enough to see.

Mining difficulty doesn't increase the price of Bitcoin, it is a common error. Certainly noone is refraining from buying Bitcoin because the difficulty is too low or selling them due to this. As always, price is the leading indicator.

edit: Sorry, I missed the bolded part. Unfontunately, it is probably impossible to show this, but the source of my suspicions rests on the fact that exchanges are seeing very little influx of Bitcoin even in times when prices don't increase. It would be extremely difficult for Bitcoin to become as illiquid as it did if you had a constant influx of 3600 BTC/day. Aside from that, simply sentiment: It makes sense for miners to become irrational and get caught up in the Bitcoin hype so that they don't sell a single coin more than necessary to cover expenses. There are also anecdotes of miners confirming this.

The million dollar question … Literally.

A problem with 455 is that it's a mere 63% off the top, and it was no particularly high volume either. But, purely from the changed look of the chart because of the uptrend from 455, it looks unlike 2011. While that doesn't necessarily mean it can't play out similarly or even worse regardless, I think there's at least as good an argument to be made for a larger triangle/sideways move that will take months to conclude, and thus, a bottom higher than 455.

In any case, Bitcoin has fundamentally become a dangerous game because miners have had such large marginal profits for an unprecedented amount of time. Here's the chart I watch for that. Just ignore the pre-ASIC period and the y axis labelings, the only thing that matters is the relative trend here. New lows in margin profits mean higher and higher pressure on miners, and eventually, they will have to sell nearly all of the daily supply, of which I suspect, unlike any real world mining market, a large part has been withheld from the market until now.
We are speculators. If we even get a whiff of this, we bail and force them to sell an even larger percentage because of the decreased price. It's a positive feedback loop of nightmarish proportion, and it is what happened in 2011. The difficulty even began to decrease because it became unprofitable – something I don't expect to happen with ASICs because they can only do SHA256, but I do expect the difficulty growth to decrease extremely, and that could be a hint for investors.

I wouldn't dismiss "eyeballing" certain segments of Bitcoin's history and comparing it to past ones. Since the psychology in Bitcoin always works the same, certain patterns emerge that repeat themselves. 1093 certainly has the potential to be what 166 was last year.

Noone serious would say such nonsense. And like it or not, the charts do lead the sentiment because sentiment is influenced by the booms and busts. Sentiment is at its worst at the very bottom and highest at the top. It is very easy to track this, just look at the way the hype works (there are many metrics, like Google trends, Wikipedia hits, client downloads, etc.) and how it dies down … it is a lagging indicator.

oda, that's what happens when you even dare suggest that Bitcoin could maybe possibly decrease in value in the short and medium term. Bitcoin cultists to the rescue. Price graphs are useless, technical analysis is a distraction.

Well, guess who did … I didn't achieve this by listening to the fiat cultists at the time, and I will certainly not achieve to protect myself like I have done in the past by listening to Bitcoin cultists.

On the topic: We are in a clear triangle now, and we are nearing its end. 880 and 1022 on MtGox are its last borders as I see it.

You have your account since 2011, did you not see how new services, users, companies flocked to Bitcoin all the time while the price first collapsed and later on stagnated for a long time? It did nothing. Prices are a collective mass delusion and its ebbs and flows are very loosely linked to reality.

Hey sturle. If nobody cares about SWIFT (again, this is NOT just USD), then how come the Bitcoin volume on MtGox has been deteriorating so much relatively to other exchanges (who have non-0 fees) who do handle SWIFT transfers? You think this is a coincidence?

What is the reason for the trend of falling and falling market share of MtGox?

I didn't, I was referring to SEPA.

Also, I am not sure what we are arguing here. MtGox's overall Bitcoin volume (all currencies!) is rapidly detiorarating: http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=7d This is proof enough. There is no excuse vs. btc-e and bitstamp who have fewer currencies and non-0 fees.

I don't even know for how much longer they will be able to continue to exist unless they fix withdrawals. The thing about this death spiral is that now, people are biginning to leave who value liquidity/volume which MtGox is continuing to lose.

MtGox is not right for anybody who doesn't intend to use SEPA (and even then it might not be right for you if you dislike waiting a month or more) or JPY domestic transfers for withdrawal.

You know, SWIFT handles any currency.

I remember when the final lower trendline broke to the downside. You literally couldn't draw a valid long-term support trendline either on log or nominal charts.



Hell has come upon us, and I am thankful it has come so early in my career.

Back when we really were afraid that there was a good chance it was all going down the drain.