Some thoughts on that: Tend to agree with Maged. Unless we get lots of fresh money quickly and can decimate the Bitcoins from the order book causing a positive feedback loop, we are in for a bleeding.
An important factor during times of historical bitcoin scarcity in the markets (BTC on MtGox's book at the peak has been decimated to an unbelievable 30k, and it is still low with barely 130k): Miners still have unbelievable profit margins, and most probably most choose and chose not to sell most of their profits and speculate instead. As the profit margins go down due to difficulty increase and price decrease, they are forced to sell their Bitcoins to cover their running costs, providing the market with a larger share of the 3600 daily Bitcoins. They will also begin to sell their accumulated coins to take profits if sentiment worsens. Now speculators not only have to compete with other speculators, but miners, and a negative feedback loop can emerge. People find themselves having vastly underestimated both the available and the newly added supply.
The time to buy Bitcoins could be when difficulty begins to deflate again. Admittedly, that could happen much further up if another media hype starts, but the chances in my eyes are relatively small.
Further factors making me more bearish in the mid term: Bitcoin exchanges are being eliminated and MtGox is returning to its monopoly status from years ago. Bitcoin still extremely centralized through mining pools (2 people conspiring can do a 51% attack, and actually have done so during the coin fork), block size limit hindering growth (see SatoshiDice), altcoin popularity rising (LTC soon to be added to MtGox; Ripple emerging as possible alternative). Oh, and of course that there are no popular actually used (ie, by lots of people with lots of volume) economic applications I know of besides SatoshiDice and Silk Road. There is still no Bitcoin economy.
PS: Talking on a scale of weeks/months here, of course. Short term I guess I am mildly bullish.
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But the question is not how many people offer bitcoin payment. The question is how many bitcoins are actually moved, and the answer to that is, not many.
Humble Bundle confirms: The Humble Double Fine Bundle was actually our first bundle to support it, which came out last month. It represents less than .1% of our sales for Humble Indie Bundle 8 |
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And we touched $89.00 - more lows to come
Should 79 break, the technical picture will be completely damaged. |
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This is not 2011.
No, it's not 2011. It's worse. |
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This is supposed to be a stable currency, not a casino.
You must be new here.  Bitcoin isn't going to be stable for a long, long time and that's because the speculators need to figure out whether they are worth 0 or 100k. |
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Once a bounce above 100 fades, we will be trading in the double digits for a long time.
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Still, I don't see the price crashing as low as in 2011...
I don't see that happening either. There's definitely a long-term up trend. Bitcoin will become a good play once it halves again (the price). |
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At the end of the day there are those of us who are invested in Bitcoin -- not only in terms of money, but also time and effort. Then there are people along for the free ride. But the sort with no hope are people like coinseeker, who really just seem to be here to troll. He must value his time the least of any of us.
Ride's not free, successful speculating/investing over the long term takes hard work, time and discipline. And most importantly, balls.  |
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Strong hands are holding Dollars until this bear market is over.  So funny that this was probably said in the 2011 correction too...."cash is king blah blah blah" and look at where we are now from $5 to $100. Fundamentals have not changed. Hold on to your precious paper =) There was ample opportunity to stock back up on Bitcoins once the Bear market reversed anywhere near $5 to $13 even for 1.5 years. It's only the people who forgot about Bitcoin or refuse to trade chart evidence who lose out. |
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I am 100% back in fiat awaiting further collapse of the bubble.
Interesting. If I may ask, around which price did you sell? I bought back in at $131 after $125 was finally surpassed on the upside. I sold some back at $112 and then the rest at $99 in the past hour. My volume was large enough for slippage so I sliced it and waited for bids. Thanks. Isn't it remarkable how the bubble has managed to entice us bears to buy back? Buy 125, sell 123 for me, made some profit net though buying after that and selling at 125. I was fortunate with my timing. |
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Strong hands are holding Dollars until this bear market is over. |
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I am 100% back in fiat awaiting further collapse of the bubble.
Interesting. If I may ask, around which price did you sell? |
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I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day.
I find it hard to believe that this same quote keeps being used after every crash. Yes, people were saying this in 2011 before we fell below $10. Right. Bitcoin can grow behind the scenes and the market can still go down despite it. It happened before, it can happen again. |
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Haha, maybe so. I'm still bullish for the long term. I think below 50, Bitcoin will be a good play again in that one can buy some, throw them on a paper wallet and lock them away for 2 or 3 years. |
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You could learn technical analysis if you have the time and will to trade the market. There are times of higher and lower probability for a move of that magnitude to occur, and you can learn to spot such a breakout.
For most people, I'd recommend dollar cost averaging a sum they are willing to lose into Bitcoin over months and forgetting about them. Once in profit, one can set up some rule like selling a certain percentage every time your holdings grow in value by 50% or 100%.
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Breakout. I concede this is going differently than 2011.  Seems that it has only taken a different initial path in order to fool some of us. I'm fortunate enough to have actually come out with profits since I posted this as I reversed my position early at minimal loss and had a nice daytrading move immediately after (a week ago). Back to holding the Bernanke Bux until we see <50, probably. We broke horizontal support levels of 103 and 97 recently. Next one would be 79. I predict that after a possible initial bounce beyond $100, we will be trading in the double digits for a long time. The Great Dollar Extraction is ON. |
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Yes, sure. Wouldn't that be SIMPLY WONDERFUL?
Cheap coins!!!
When it finally reaches the bottom, surely everyone will FLOOD IN to buy them.
"SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY", all the noobs will shout as they are desperate to buy into BTC. Banks will be awash with wires to Mt Gox.
VCs will be falling over themselves to get a piece of the action.
I mean, why wouldn't they?
Agreed, Bitcoin will probably be dead forever then. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-04-01zeg2011-11-01ztgSza1gSMAzm1g20zm2g200As I said before: This has happened before. It will happen again. |
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Yes, they are pretty cheap.
A few of us warned weeks ago that this would happen... people want cheap coins? Well there you go. You have them. Fat lot of good it will do you now.
I don't see anyone buying all those cheap coins. Amazing, isn't it? Not really -- any hopes of recovery up until 2 weeks ago were pretty much ruined by manipulators aiming for "cheaper coins". It removed all steam from the market, and has cheapened the value of bitcoin. Now we're seeing the result -- the cash-out. They wanted cheaper coins, they got them. It's time now for people to fully reconcile the phrase "cheap coins" with reality. Date Registered: 14-03-2013, 03:59:40 Babby's first Bitcoin bear market/major correction. |
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I agree with Rampion. When you look at the registration date of all those crying about manipulators or that Bitcoin will "die" when it goes back to more sustainable price levels, you'll see that usually they came on board March 2013 or so. Again, look up a price chart of 2011. It went from 32 to 2.
Having seen actual manipulation in the Bitcoin market with 30-50k bid/ask walls, I can tell you that it's probably the least manipulated it ever was because it has grown so large, and actually most of the times, large orders aren't fake and are filled.
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