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1381  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 20, 2022, 03:02:26 PM
2. Bitcoin popularity is increasing without Elon musk. More people will know and invest in bitcoin in 2024.

Why wait? Why don't you invest now?  Cool
1382  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2022, 06:47:26 PM
BREAKING‼️ Binance auditor deletes the "Proof of Reserves" assessment from its website and pauses ALL work with crypto clients - including  CryptoCom and KuCoin - Coindesk  Huh

 Source: https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1603709897467744257

Haha last time I checked Coindesk was their competitor? It's like "AMD CPUs suck! News presented by Intel." Grin  This Binance FUD is stupid and is being used by bears to try to drag us further down. Not gonna happen IMO. 16xxx IS the bottom. Remember 3k last cycle and how we were revisiting it over and over again? Chill guys, only up from here.  Cool
1383  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2022, 10:20:38 PM

For the record he's the only person on my ignore list

I can't remind of any other user on WO that would be safe-to-ignore (EDIT: lately), honestly, so i think i can relate.
It's just that i decided against using Ignore at some point, because freedom of speech and shit, but i'd never expect anybody to follow this idea.
Sometimes it's a burden and a good test at the same time  Grin


Same here, I don't have anyone on ignore but this exphorizon guy is a real challenge... I'm still trying to find a teeny tiny grain of reason in his posts but I keep failing over and over again...  Cool
1384  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2022, 10:17:22 PM
I have been absent from the thread for a while, I hope it hasn't been posted yet, but I found the following image so full of wisdom.




Haha... JJG approves...  Grin
1385  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2022, 07:57:26 AM
NEW: Bitcoin signature from January 2009 was recently posted by an anonymous forum member - dated just 1 week after Bitcoin launched.
           

Who did this? Come out now... just don't.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5421158.msg61353840#msg61353840

could only be  Craig-the-real-Satoshi-WrightTM  of course  Roll Eyes 

sorry to everyone for mentioning that idiots name

That's BS, 2009 is sooo late. Everyone knows he was mining Bitcoins back in 1993.  Grin Grin Grin
1386  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2022, 11:16:04 PM
"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles


This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.


The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, but imo that level will not be sustainable, because of the mining costs being much much lower.  It could be sustainable, if we got some rare event like a big chunk of international trade happened via BTC, or if western central banks started buying - or why not both  Grin.



Pretty similar here.. my worst case scenario was ~$80k but I was hoping for $100k+ prices (I was pretty sure we'll reach $100k during previous cycle)
1387  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2022, 11:04:24 PM
Many many many @CryptoTea_

We gots our lil selfies (not royal) a CryptoTea_ fanboi going on here... .. and without any nohomo... too..  Angry Angry Angry Angry

Look at the cornfield
A Sunday in December
Making placid waves

#haiku

As far as I can determine, placid is better than flaccid, no?

[...]
@CryptoTea_
Looking at previous 4 year halving cycles:

Bitcoin bottoms in the next few months

And hits a new all time high around the end of 2025

Note: Historical data does not predict the future

https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393742250602497
[...]
I’d argue that we’ll see $200,000 or higher at the peak of the next cycle (top in late 2025) but you get the drill.
+1 to this!

$200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart (see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this).

Yes.... "We" need a spiraling update from our very own WO spiral analyst #nohomo... within the next 2-4 years, no rush.  

Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

That's not true.  It seems like almost always while we are "in the doldrums," it just feels like everything is going bad and bitcoin is dying.. that's how being "in the doldrums" is supposed to feel... otherwise weak hands, snot nosed 14-year olds and degenerate gamblers will not get shooken from their cornz.


Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go to $100k, and there were also no guarantees that bitcoin would make it to $69k, but it did.

Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go below 200-week moving average.... and there also are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to stay above $15,479, but so far it has.


BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  Cool

Bitcoin might go up from here and screw the bears.  That's possible... and you are right it could go down to $9-$10k or even lower.  I would not rule out either one, even if neither one is guaranteed.

Furthermore, bitcoin has a pretty long history of screwing bears.. and it is quite satisfying when it does happen to have happen.. even though it is possible that the bears will never get screwed again, ever.. and even though historically it has seemed unlikely that the bears are going to get screwed right before it ends up happening, and sometimes we do not even realize how badly bears are getting screwed while such screwing of the bears is happening... I could give some examples.. but you know enough to be able to find your own examples if you weren't being such a party-pooping negative-nancy at the moment.  

Toughen up, soldier.  #nohomo.  

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Well I hoped you knew me better man I'm a battle-tested veteran, permabull and a hodler. So no need to cheer me up I'm brimming with confidence regarding Bitcoin future...  Cool
1388  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2022, 10:57:40 PM
IMHO, it is a bit illogical to suggest a 200K as the next ATH as we should either be in a top deceleration trend (1.1K to 20K to 69K to maybe 120-130K) or in a usage acceleration trend the peak should be much higher at, say, 500K. Basically, the push from decrease in issuance (block reward) should be smaller in each cycle, but at some point we can get into the S-curve in adoption, hence the possibility of a bigger number.

200K does not seem to fit any discernible pattern. Sure, it could happen, just based on the randomness.


Halving suggests that the price should at least double so $69k x2  = ~$140k. That would be fair price for the miners and all but we know that Bitcoin doesn't give a damn...  Grin

why would it? it's a halving of reward, not doubling of the price. The bulk of btc is already issued and the breakeven for miners is about 15-16K (this one will be doubling, sure).

That'd be just fair as they're getting 3BTC per block now but will be receiving 1.5BTC per block burning the same amount of energy. And as you've probably heard, electricity prices have tripled in some countries, making mining completely unprofitable.
1389  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2022, 07:58:38 PM
IMHO, it is a bit illogical to suggest a 200K as the next ATH as we should either be in a top deceleration trend (1.1K to 20K to 69K to maybe 120-130K) or in a usage acceleration trend the peak should be much higher at, say, 500K. Basically, the push from decrease in issuance (block reward) should be smaller in each cycle, but at some point we can get into the S-curve in adoption, hence the possibility of a bigger number.

200K does not seem to fit any discernible pattern. Sure, it could happen, just based on the randomness.


Halving suggests that the price should at least double so $69k x2  = ~$140k. That would be fair price for the miners and all but we know that Bitcoin doesn't give a damn...  Grin
1390  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2022, 07:47:25 PM
P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon!  Grin
1391  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2022, 07:46:46 PM
Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always
Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did
BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  Cool
1392  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 14, 2022, 10:05:08 PM


I wonder if a toy rusty pipe is included or should be bought separately?  Cool
1393  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 13, 2022, 08:13:37 PM
They were developed and coded by someone so how can you be so sure that "someone" hasn't left any backdoors?  Cool

Open source code.

Don't be so naive. Who can compare the actual code running vs the published open source? There are people maintaining it, updating it, hosting it. It can be hacked too. The author or some malicious admin for example can edit or recompile the code adding backdoors and you will have no idea it's not the original one.  Cool



1394  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 13, 2022, 02:15:30 PM

Wait wait wait... people starting to forget we need the exchanges. I'm using both Kraken and Binance so what? Is it a bad thing? So, before claiming "exchanges are our enemies" you could come up with some replacement? I hear you saying decentralized exchanges? They were developed and coded by someone so how can you be so sure that "someone" hasn't left any backdoors?  Cool
1395  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2022, 06:03:28 PM
SBF fucks El Salvador ?

https://medium.com/@officialcryptohub0/how-el-salvador-lost-all-bitcoins-on-ftx-b18c2394ec6a

Quote
Many people are speculating that El Salvador is holding their Bitcoins on FTX, which would mean that all their Bitcoins are gone. This news has sent shockwaves throughout the cryptocurrency community…

...

President Bukele immediately commented the situation with “we demand the immediate extradition of Sam Bankman-Fried (CEO of FTX) and Sam Trabucco (Former CEO Alameda Research), Washington most respond within 48 hours”.

Looks like fake news. I bet this article was written to create more panic in the market. According to Bukele they have 0BTC on FTX. Angry
1396  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2022, 05:42:40 PM
got me some at 16942.

next one
164xx

then
159xx

lets go BTC!

my cash position was terrible JJG was it not? Wink



Ok you got lucky with 16k, 15k is hardly possible but I can't rule it out completely right now... as to $9k... keep dreaming man!  Grin
1397  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2022, 09:14:19 PM
This eXPHorizon guy... is he retarded? Or a bot? I mean he's posting nonsense here on WO all day long... every day..  Cool
1398  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2022, 08:43:31 PM
$17k is the new $3k... if ya know what I mean....  Cool
1399  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2022, 09:17:36 PM
What's with the sexy bounce? Anymore bouncing before Christmas?


When is the next FED "must destroy the economy" meeting?



OMG the one to the right... super bouncy... also love the way she holds... the bell... looks like she's a pro...  Cool
1400  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2022, 08:29:32 PM
A few minutes later



@ $20,110

The price won't stay above $20k for more than 5 consecutive days. That's going to be true for the foreseeable future.

Strong bullish signal! Buy! All in!  Cool
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