More Gary clown's grilling video: CAUGHT RED HANDED: SEC Chair Gary Gensler blamed crypto for Signature Bank's failure during his congressional testimony. Today, NY Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris refuted that in front of the same committee: "It is not the case that the failure of Signature was related to crypto" https://twitter.com/i/status/1648799936195055617 |
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You are kidding, right? If Coinbase stops trading in US this would be very bad for Bitcoin in the next 5 years at least. Practically every institution in US involved in Bitcoin uses Coinbase custody directly or via OTC desks. I just don't want to speculate what will happen in this case. I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories, but I sense a plot to harm Bitcoin adoption in USA and EU. First, they tried to shut down the banks that operate with the exchanges. This didn't work as they supposed. On the contrary they killed banks and their stocks, while Bitcoin was getting even stronger. They see the danger now - people and institutions prefer to buy Bitcoin instead of stocks and pull out their deposits. The same reason why China banned Bitcoin so many times. Being incredibly stupid it took them years to realize that neither regulations nor lack of regulations will hinder Bitcoin. So now they came with a btilliant plan - they started issuing fines with no explanations creating a delibarate regulatory chaos. This is like getting arrested and brought to court and the judge saying to you - look we are going to put you in jail because we have no idea who you are. But if you leave the country, we won't stop you. So, they play the chicken game. Bittrex shitted their pants at the first fine. OK, we can live with that. They are so small, nobody cares. But If Brian acts like a pussy too, this will have a major impact. |
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I also should mention that if you missed the grilling of a trembling Gary Gensler then you need to look up that video immediately.
Here's the Q&A between McHenry and Gensler (linked at its beginning) https://youtu.be/A9yAdi8Knzg?t=470 |
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[snip]
Very very 180 degree opinion as a few weeks back Liking this way more  The transition of institutions investing in Bitcoin falling like domino to the bank system collapsing in USA is the 180 degree change. This is denititely a black swan event which nobody could have predicted several weeks ago. I'm just trying to be realistic with no emotions involved and no selling based on emotions. I feel we need more post like that here. So, what looked like 4-5% probability reaching 48K in May now is way higher, probably above 40%. But then again nobody knows what the next black swan event would be. I feel that more bank filing for bankruptcy in US and Europe is coming in the next months and this will be very good for Bitcoin. |
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It seems that for now the feds have succeeded in convincing people that the money in their US banks is safe and prevented a massive bank run. But this may only be apparent, and the truth is that this process continues and will intensify with time. So I expect that after a certain time, new banks will go bankrupt and again the shares of the banks will become 0, because for no coverage. Ironic, isn't it? How many fat-necked bankers ranted against Bitcoin that it had no cover and was going to 0. Lo and behold, their stocks went to 0, and Bitcoin thrived in a bear cycle, peeling away from stocks in an emphatic way.
Nothing can now save the banks and the USD from another historic collapse, accompanied by a severe economic crisis and high inflation. At the same time, there are no more crooks like FTX to print paper bitcoins and thwart the natural deflationary process. So we'll probably see a price above 40K soon, and it's entirely possible that by the end of the year we'll approach or surpass ATH. It depends on whether the deluded fools who still trust the banks and the government will continue to keep their money there. Anyone with at least a little brain should immediately withdraw their money from the small banks and put it in the big ones with a guaranteed deposit, with a significant part invested in bitcoins. I believe that this process has already started, but it is still under the surface, hidden by the banks, who are trying their best to prevent Bitcoin adoption. But they don't know how to do it because there's no way they can hit bitcoin exchanges and banks without collapsing their own economy and that boosting bitcoin even more. And accordingly they will not succeed.
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Cold from hell remnant
Still lives in my left nostril
A weird cold indeed
OT ha, I have something like this....running nose...in a couple of days it transitions to cough....then running nose again....then cough again..2wks already. Did not check for COVID early enough, now negative...weird. That 'cold' must have gotten 'something' from the other viruses. Buuut..it does not matter, the mood is still good due to our favorite pumping higher. Since yesterday I have similar symptoms. Suddenly I felt very dizzy and the temperature raised to 39. I started taking analgetic every 6 hours and applying nasal sprey. Do you know what is this - covid or other virus/bacterial infection? Sometimes I feel the urge to cough, and sometimes my nose gets a bit swollen. But so far nothing more, except I feel very bad with my whole body aching. Do I need to take antibiotics or to try walking it off. |
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Another minor sell off. This is probably an effort to just take out a few longs before more up move.
...
It seems that Binance froze. Is it planned or not, I don't know. Judging by the lil panic probably not. |
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Today I’ve had 4 phone calls from friends that have always disregarded what I had to say on #Bitcoin Today it’s different. They all sound scared, and want to know how to buy One friend is sitting on a cash balance of 2 mil. He wants 1 mil in #Bitcoin by the weekend Buckle up https://twitter.com/BitcoinMaxiHodl/status/1637712059629735936?s=20Janet Yellen admitted to Congress that SHE and other government officials determine which banks are systemic, and which are not. Below are the entities that paid her over $7MM in “speaking fees” before her time at Treasury. Banana Republic stuff. @DoombergT https://twitter.com/EnergyCynic/status/1637445248170311680?s=20This never gets old  |
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Bitcoin is so deep into US economy that only morons can think they can harm it and get away with it. No spot ETF, ban this ban that. Now let all US economy collapse, FED, SEC and fat neck bankers deserve it!  |
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I'm still struggling with my dads ilnesses. Too bad that Bitcoin is crashing and I have no comfort in it. I'm spending like crazy these months for everything that I want. It is just a mood I've never been before. I know that the price is good for buying, but I'm deep under water regarding monthly fiat income. I will keep my main stash intact, only spending what I need to buy something. And "need" is a strong word. For example why on earth I decided to buy Meta Quest 2 VR only to play Star Wars Squadrons, provided I had the game for 2 years and barely played it? And why I bought apple airpods 1 (real) and 2 (fake) only to decide to buy pro 2 (real). I don't even have iphone or ipad to use them properly. I'm a fan of Samsung - with Galaxy tab s7+ and s23 ultra recently bought, I'm quite satisfied. tl;sr. May be later this year the DCA mood will return again, but not now.  |
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You don't know how lucky you are in Western Europe and USA. In my country, if someone achieves all academic titles/programming skills etc and works in 2 places will get half of what a beginner Mcdonalds employee in these countries will get. Moreover, we pay for health care, which is at the level of 2 centuries ago. Here people die from elementary diseases because hospitals have no specialists or modern equipment. And the prices of the food and everything else is equal to the rest countries. And if I want to leave this shit country I will not get neither free health care nor a pension, so I'm stuck here. Now my dad is very ill from elementary diseases which in other countries will be healed in minutes. I almost died from gallbladder stones and peritonitis last summer. My coleague at the same age died from appendicite inflamation. These problems can't be solved by Bitcoin, unless I wait for prices above 1mil. By then I'll be probably dead. So I don't care anymore about the price. |
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This week's return to the bull mode was a bit surprising and a very positive sign. The confidence is slowly returning and for now there is no indication that some FTX @ Aldmeda like companies are manipulating the market as in 2022. It seems that 2019 mini bull is repeating in 2023. If all goes according to plan the top should be 48K somewhere in late March or April. To this number I've arrived in 4 different ways - 2 extrapolations from 2 points, 1 historic top resistance and 1 purely psychological factor - 50K! And if it is a short lived peak as in 2019 then the price will return in the upper 30K. After that it may come back to the lower 30K or even below that, before the start of the real bull in 2024. Having said that, I don't see it as the most probable scenario. IMO the chances for the top of this bull until May 2023 are:
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%
However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%
Unfortunately 26K wasn't even endangered once and now we have some bearish signs. This changes quite a bit the probabilities. I must add also that I have in mind Skew which makes probability predictions for some futures exchanges. Also, I have to say that many times in Bitcoin's history predictions with less than a 1% probability came to reality. Check out this diagram made in early 2019 when the price was about 4K.  The chances for reaching 10K in June were very slim, but it happened anyway and we even were close to 14K! Can Bitcoin do a similar feat again in 2023? We shall see. As a ratio from the bottom however, we are at 1.43, which translated to 2019 would be 4.4K. Personally, I find it a bit worriesome that we are having such a strong resistance at 25K, with a still existing danger of invalidating the Jan-Feb bull run. So, I guess now the odds for the top until the end of June are: >48K - 1% 41K - 48K - 4% 31K - 40K - 10% 26K - 30K - 35% 25K - 26K - 50% But everything can change instantly if we break the resistance 25-26K or there is some major good news. |
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This week's return to the bull mode was a bit surprising and a very positive sign. The confidence is slowly returning and for now there is no indication that some FTX @ Aldmeda like companies are manipulating the market as in 2022. It seems that 2019 mini bull is repeating in 2023. If all goes according to plan the top should be 48K somewhere in late March or April. To this number I've arrived in 4 different ways - 2 extrapolations from 2 points, 1 historic top resistance and 1 purely psychological factor - 50K! And if it is a short lived peak as in 2019 then the price will return in the upper 30K. After that it may come back to the lower 30K or even below that, before the start of the real bull in 2024. Having said that, I don't see it as the most probable scenario. IMO the chances for the top of this bull until May 2023 are:
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%
However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%
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23K!
 25K! |
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China is preparing for the next bull cycle. In order to ban Bitcoin, first they have to unban it. However, let's hope this time 24K resistance cracks.
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