MemPool Report: Fees have been higher than 1sat to get into a block for over two hours now - still trying to checkpoint a Lightning channel open with LOOP.
Looks to be backed up for at least another hour at 3sat to get in as minimum fee.
I'm in no hurry, but just taking more note of the mempool since I got back into Lightning - so as to minimize on-chain costs - and hasn't been this backed up since I started taking notice of such things, since you assholes dragged me into your Lightning channel party thingy.
Not sure how to interpret this. I know there has been some historical speculation about mempool activity/BTC Price, and I guess I'm just passively noting that speculated correlation.
eg: I can't seem to recognize a reason for the min fee being over 1sat, for as long as it has, vs price activity.
I guess the upside to becoming more involved with running the node, is I'll have a much better sense of the mempool/fee-state as a result of desiring to pay bare minimum on channel opens, which may help give me further insight into any possible price movements.
Haven't paid attention to the mempool/price to the extent that I have lately, and will be curious to see what knowledge I glean. I don't have any interest in going backwards through history to do the research sorta thing...
</brainfart>
The mempool spent some time crowded during the peak this year, but otherwise we have seen it clear a LOT. For me 1s/b fees have me in a block within a fairly reasonable time. I usually use my local copy of mempol.space to estimate where I am at if I want to clear a block in time. Recently I made a payment using coinpayments.net. THEY ARE A SCAM. MAKE SURE TO PAY A HIGH ENOUGH FEE TO MAKE IT UNDER THEIR TIMER as they charge 40k sats to "refund" you. Fuckers. They are awful. |
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WO is better because it's family. It has a ridiculous preponderance of weird uncles, but it's still family.
My experience with family is a bit different. Blood doesn't matter. I've disinherited family from my estate. Even family can be absolute garbage human. Yeah. I agree. I think I am using the word in the way that the dude feels about hid dog. And though the connections here are virtual and very thin for me I find them valuable. There are many here I would love to have a meal with, you among them (I know, I know lol). And of course there are some that I wish would go away. I wish no ill on that ridiculous Nazi that used to taunt us, but I am glad he's gone... And actually... I nearly DO wish ill on him. A failing in my soul, I guess. |
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Sad day…. Lost one of my very best friends today, a dog and it’s unconditional love.
A day where I really learn what pain is.
I never had a dog as a child. Never have a dog until my late 40s. Now I have one. The thought of what you are going through is horrible. They really are one of the little bits of evidence to me that there is a God, and he loves us. Sorry for your loss, dude.  |
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Ignore Lists are like mute buttons. I prefer to see everything and use my scroll wheel.
I get this point in theory. In practice, time is opportunity cost. I want to maximize my funtime here, and part of that involves curating my experience, much like I do with muting/blocking accounts on Twitter (where I fucked off to, during my absence here) There are some people I will never agree with, and don't care to read their opinions/content, because it literally is a waste of my time, and a net-negative in my life, so I prefer to curate my experience to optimize time. I spen(t/d) too much time scrolling up that hellscape. WO is better because it's family. It has a ridiculous preponderance of weird uncles, but it's still family. |
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Every now and then you see something that actually makes your jaw drop open... No... I am not talking about Saylor's laser eyes quote.  The same Fed asshole that sat there on TV, with a wide-eyed look on his face, basically saying "Yeah we have the printing press, so we can print infinite amounts of money no problem." The guy is not too bright tho, he literally asked that question about the laser eyes 2 days ago.  My amazement on this is he did not like it... he retweeted it. I know people like to say things like retweets are not endorsements etc. But why did the fed dude retweet that? I wonder if he will get a call from some friend of the "smoking man" later? |
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Every now and then you see something that actually makes your jaw drop open... No... I am not talking about Saylor's laser eyes quote. |
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Anyone have the cliff's note version of the last 2000 pages? What did I miss? P.S. Welcome back chart buddy Edit: PPS Obvious wall says obvious price upswing. Way to come back in ON TOPIC! |
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If I am reading you right there are three possible scenarios.
1. The value you lost in that channel was exactly gained in another one (or ones) that is still open. *unless*---
2. You spent the amount you are now "missing". (In this case the value stops in someone ELSE's channel)
3. You channel partner broadcast an incorrect channel state and ripped you off.
Here's the close transaction from LOOP. https://mempool.space/tx/8c5f9bc17d9b81b64f9e81547c172fb9ba4fe9ecd98bd740023fc90ede7f2cc3I got 0.00190205 back. No idea what happened to the other 0.16586666. EDIT: Hmm. Just did all the math for the values on my node, and the accounting all adds up - after incurred fees - so I have to think that the liquidity is wrapped up in other channels that I'm linked to, pointing towards your Case 1 ? Kinda fucks with my flow, cuz now I need to add more coin to establish another wumbo with LOOP, or close some existing channels, which I don't want to do. I suppose I could throw another coin onto the node, but kinda already starting to feel a bit uncomfortable with not understanding what is going on with the piddly 3 BTC I'm playing with. Yeah... totally get that. I had a little more than that on my first node which was running in a docker container I built on my QNAP. One of the most technologically retarded thing I ever did. I feel lucky to have not lost it all. But yes... #1 is super likely. But heres the thing. This should not have changed your overall outgoing liquidity. It will have just spread it over other channels. It is probably the actual REASON my channel with you is now all yourr SATS. It's not wumbo (I am not sure where wumbo starts.) but it's 5mm sats... you can buy a scooter with it. You still have the wumbo channel, but not it TAKES payments rather than gives them. You could try balancing... Lemme set the fees on my channels to you to nil... try those? there's 10mm liquidity between them. I just never have much luck with balancing channels. lol. -edit- THERE.. my channels to you are zero fees. Fill back up your Wumbo channel some with them... I think you can? |
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Oh boy. People smarter than me (hopefully?) have done some work to explain some of what I have been yammering on about in the speculation thread for, well, quite a bit... Thanks for posting. I hope it's not bunk. let's see! This was excellent analysis! And very interesting... I will be pondering it's meaning for a while. Although they call the event an "attack" at one point in the piece they never speculate as to motive. One motive I can think of is creating a sybil attack for future decoys? A database of ring members to be used in de anonymizing attempts later? Which also justifies the ~1k cost incurred in fees? To be honest this is hitting the boundaries of my "How does Monero work" knowledge... Just assuming that WAS the motive, i wonder if there are any countermeasures that do not introduce more attack surface. VERY INTERESTING STUFF! |
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Oh boy. People smarter than me (hopefully?) have done some work to explain some of what I have been yammering on about in the speculation thread for, well, quite a bit... Thanks for posting. I hope it's not bunk. let's see! |
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So what ever happened to that asshole Jihan Wu? Haven't heard anything of him since the whole BCash launch debacle. "Fuck your mother if you want fuck."  Last I heard was that he was working at the salad counter in a Beijing Walmart.  I am very sad not to see what the "Fuck Vegetables" actually ARE. I mean we can assume carrots and zucchini and cucumbers? But what else could the be? Very wonder. Such interesting. Maybe cabbage  I don't see why the cabbage calls it a "shrimp" though. Damn. Cold. |
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So what ever happened to that asshole Jihan Wu? Haven't heard anything of him since the whole BCash launch debacle. "Fuck your mother if you want fuck." Last I heard was that he was working at the salad counter in a Beijing Walmart. I am very sad not to see what the "Fuck Vegetables" actually ARE. I mean we can assume carrots and zucchini and cucumbers? But what else could the be? Very wonder. Such interesting. |
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I didn't ask you to spoon feed me, as I said this essay agrees with my understanding of things. I have used my brain and knew a majority of what was said there-in before I read it. I asked very specific questions and you dodged them completely and then proceeded to blather on with a series of straw men & insults, so yea, answer seems to have been given by your refusal to answer and Fuck You very much!
And NO, I do not blame Covid for my father's death. I thought I was clear about that, HE NEVER HAD IT! I blame the stupid reactions, fear mongering, and economic shutdown imposed upon us by brainless diptwats like yourself who blindly scream trust the science to support destructive societal changes that have absolutely NOTHING to do with Science! So I guess it would be much more sensible to say I Blame You for my father's death rather than C19. And NO I am NOT an "Antivaxxer" I am up to date on my mumps, measles & rubella as well as tetanus and a couple others. I never had to get the chicken pox vaccine because I had already gotten chicken pox as a kid... Just Like I have Already Gotten & FULLY RECOVERED from Covid. So why subject myself to additional risk (as small as it may be) when I already have immunity that has proven to be far more effective than the vaccine? And NO my wife does NOT have an autoimmune disease, and as I said she has already had and recovered from Covid as well so she "most probably" WON'T die from Covid you dumb fuck! (Reading comprehension troubles eh? Explains a lot!) Yes I made my decision as to what gave me the best odds of staying alive. Granted part of my decision was determined by the fact that everyone recommending the vaccine was using provable lies for support and refusing to account for my particular circumstances, having already achieved immunity and genetic factors. By the way, my Dr. completely agrees with my decision but warns that it may end up coming down to a matter of convenience as opposed to best personal health practices.
So I don't know where you got your straw man about a cow breeder as a health advisor. But since I do all my own auto repair, and also do far more daily to maintain my oral heigene than anyone else and since I also do my own plumbing work... Why don't you just Fuck Right Off if you're not going to answer the questions I posed?
What percentage of Covid-19 infections do YOU believe lead to hospitalization? What percentage by your understanding leads to death? How many have died since March 2020 due to increased addiction, mental illness, and suicide brought on by isolation, fear, and economic catastrophe? How many have died due to abject failure in the medical industry to maintain sensible treatment plans for NON-COVID based healthcare treatment? Specifically, what in this essay can you factually disagree with?
So far the person arguing with you is using straw men and personal attacks, and I predict this will continue. I could be wrong, but I have a feeling you are casting pearls, so to speak. In the last year and a half covid dashboards for one of the US largest hospital systems have been my direct responsibility, so I know this data very intimately. Particularly for a non-clinical person. I am not going to go to the trouble of digging up real data right now because, first of all, it is not actually my property to share, and secondly you will most likely believe me since the ACTUAL DATA *STRONGLY* supports your conclusions. (Not saying you are biased, but you know what i mean). But when you filter down the covid mortality funnel you see very clear facts. +The OVERWHELMING majority of covid cases do NOT go to the hospital. This is the only data I do not have access to actual numbers for because that is not really possible in my data. Our data starts at the hospital encounter. But we DO know that most people fall into the category in which includes people who get Covid, and do not even know it, know it but are not tested, get a test but do not get further medical care. Or go to their PCP or urgent care and are sent home to isolate and get through it. I have to guess here, but it is an educated guess that this number is north of 90% of cases. +Of the cases who present to the ED or Covid units, the OVERWHELMING majority of THEM are sent home to isolate and recover. This I happen to KNOW is more than 90% of these people. So we are ALREADY somewhere in the vicinity of 99% if my first guess is correct, and even if I am off by a HUGE amount we are still at worst around 93% It is very unusual for those patients to be admitted later, but it can happen. +Of the cases that are ADMITTED to the Covid unit the OVERWHELMING majority of those are kept for between 2 days and 3 weeks and are sent home after their recovery. Most of the time they would probably have been OK at home... but some really need assistance keeping their O2 up and better safe than sorry. +Only a very small percentage of THOSE cases ever make it to the ICU. At the worst this was around 20% (Remember, this is 20% of 10% of 10% at the very most. so ~.2%?) +In the early days of covid the next thing you DO NOT want to have happen is to be intubated. Unfortunately the numbers stop being so cheery at this point. i do not want to be morbid, but if you find yourself in an ICU with a tube down your airway, you need to whatever housekeeping of the soul you think is important. But even then it was not ALL ICU patients and some did recover... but in this group many died. However, as therapies, and treatments get better we are no longer intubating nearly as many... But that is a point you do NOT want to get to as it has bad outcomes. So, yeah... LOTS of people have died. It is tragic. And it has been a SERIOUS public health problem because it has been a big load on the medical system. Sadly more cases like your father exist than did before covid. By a wide margin. And the 3rd order effects we cannot account for are not anywhere close to over. We may end up seeing a war because of it. People who act like it's all a big "fake news" conspiracy are very very wrong. Not that it may neot actually BE a conspiracy. But it is most CERTAINLY killing folks. I also share what I read as your general position on the vaccine. I have a serious allergy that can kill me (anaphylaxis), and you better believe I asked my doc before I got the vaccine, which I did do. Because I think at my age the risk of the vaccine is lower than that of the disease. But I can't stand the "trust the science" people who think folks thinking critically about the virus and vaccine are stupid. They are just as bad as those who believe the virus is not even real. |
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Did LOOP just rob me of near 0.17 BTC?
Even if they didn't, the fact you don't know is definitely concerning. What are you concerned about? It should not be the lightning network in my opinion. And knowing Bob, you will not need to be concerned about a lack of understanding for very long. It is not impossible for someone to try to broadcast an incorrect channel state. But it is HIGHLY unlikely for several reasons. And Bob has all the data he needs to do the accounting for his node. 1. BTC in/out on chain, and used to open channels 2. On chain balance 2. Channel balances 3. Record of income and expenditures. All those things should balance. And do 100% on my 2 year old node. It is true that lightning is more convoluted than the base layer. Just as a set of bank accounts is more complicated than a gold bar. |
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Gotta start loading up guns into the back of the truck; Rick and I are trekking out to the ranch to have some fun...
... but yeah, about this Lightning stuff... So, I opened a "Wumbo" channel with LOOP. The channel got entirely drained from my side to their side. The channel was co-operatively closed, apparently.
My settled balance is WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY BELOW what I put into it.
Did LOOP just rob me of near 0.17 BTC?
WTF?
If I am reading you right there are three possible scenarios. 1. The value you lost in that channel was exactly gained in another one (or ones) that is still open. *unless*--- 2. You spent the amount you are now "missing". (In this case the value stops in someone ELSE's channel) 3. You channel partner broadcast an incorrect channel state and ripped you off. The chance of it being number three is EXTREMELY low, and I would bet a lot that you have not been ripped off. And unless you have SPENT 0.17ish BTC using your node then you should be able to see the total outgoing liquidity remaining the same minus anything you have SPENT. When you spend it should increase your INCOMING liquidity. It is most likely to be a combination of 1 and 2. But unless you have been on a spending spree along with a channel opening spree then it is mostly #1. For example, I opened a channel with you for 5 million sats. (You also opened a channel with me with 5 million sats. We are 100% redundant, but that is ok lol) My channel has been swept over to your side almost entirely. So if we cooperatively closed that channel you would get almost all the corn. In fact both channels look like this. If we closed them both you would get something like 9.3 million sats. But I have not LOST the other 4.3 that I put into the channel (or whatever I think my math might be off a little) because it has ended up in other channels as liquidity that I would GAIN if I closed THOSE channels. In RTL the # to watch is this one:   The only thing that changes that number is SPENDING or EARNING Sats. If you pay someone, or take a payment that number will go down or up respectively. (Also fees will trickle it up/down). But ROUTING Sats is a net zero transaction aside from the fees. One caveat. I *do* think RTL will drop that number when a partner node goes offline... but those SATS are still yours just not part of your liquidity. So make sure to also take into account local balances on offline channels. Here is one with a majority local balance and offline:  This silly little channel is one of my oldest. I do not know if they, or I opened this 350k sat channel. Over it's life it has moved ~10x it's value back and forth. If it were totally dead, I'd close it. But I am keeping it to see if it keeps getting used more with MPP becoming a thing. Clear as mud? lol. |
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 The red curve on the big chart shows bitcoin's centered 100 week geometric mean. A transform revealed an apparent sine pattern in the geomean, seen in the upper corner chart. The yellow sine wave is my best fit. The lower corner chart converts back into price domain and extrapolates the sine wave. Indication: we might have a couple of years of bearish action, but not a dire crypto winter. I hate that this chart makes so much sense.  I mean... it's bullish in the big picture... but 2 years of consolidating here? *sigh*. |
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This is so under-merited. Everyone should really read this. Thank you jojo, everything in one place. Very low quality antivaxxer shit. Using a couple of real facts to make is look trustworthy to cover up the rest 99% which is a huge pile of BS. Specifically, what in this essay can you factually disagree with? Attacking the author as "just" and agricultural advisor is immaterial. What Specifically do see as BS? I see very little, personally, that is counter to what I have known about virology, immunology, and yes, agricultural husbandry for many years. Do you want my personal credentials? GFY! Opsec. Why not look into the credentials of Dr. Robert Malone? Or better yet, look a little deeper into the track record of Dr. Anthony Faucci... (how many died due to his stubborn insistence that HIV could be treated with a single miracle cure rather than a strategic regime of therapeutic & symptom based treatment?) Serious questions: What percentage of Covid-19 infections do YOU believe lead to hospitalization? What percentage by your understanding leads to death? How many have died since March 2020 due to increased addiction, mental illness, and suicide brought on by isolation, fear, and economic catastrophe? How many have died due to abject failure in the medical industry to maintain sensible treatment plans for NON-COVID based healthcare treatment? My own father (the best man I ever knew) died from Covid policies in June 2020 even though he was tested 4 times and came up negative every time. His bronchioscopy that was scheduled as a follow-up after his successful radiation treatment had eradicated his stage 1 cancer was canceled. His pulse-ox readings were dropping into the 80-85% range. But because he was Covid negative, and since covid protocol would not allow his regular Dr's, those familiar with his specific conditions, to see him or be involved in his treatment, he was quickly discharged and put on oxygen. 8 days after his 70th birthday after being discharged from the hospital 4 times, he sat up on the edge of his bed and told my mother, "I can't breathe!" The irony of his last words, in June of 2020, "I can't breathe!" He then fell over and bled out from the aneurysm in his left lung that had grown to the point of rupturing since it was first detected in October of 2019. His Oncologist felt that it was more important to continue his treatments at that time, but wanted to look back with a bronchioscopy in February or March... Our hospitals were never overwhelmed, but the medical industry lost its collective mind! My father never had Covid-19 as my wife and I were very careful to avoid exposing him or my mother as we both went through it in May. He never had it, but it killed him just the same. I did have it, it sucked. And it cost me an additional 6 weeks of time with my father. 6 weeks of his last 8. I had it, I beat it, and I have been exposed numerous times since. Because when the world shut down and my wife was furloughed I was needed much more urgently. After 18 months of working 50+ hours per week and traveling at least 1 week out of every month, I'm tired and maybe a bit cranky! But you tell me to "trust the science" "listen to the professionals" & "take the jab" FUCK YOU! The science tells me I already have natural immunity and due to my genetic predisposition to cardiovascular issues and blood clots, the science tells me this vaccine is not offering enough benefit to outweigh the risks. My wife went ahead and got the Pfizer vaccine. She has a genetic autoimmune issue that made it seem sensible for her even though she had already beaten Covid in early 2020. Of course that was when it was deemed 94% effective 🙄 and she has since developed a heart murmur that nobody can explain. Probably not related, but who knows? So yea it kinda matters to me personally, so tell me Specifically, what do you see as being BS? I've tried to avoid this topic because this is a Bitcoin conversation, (and because it's a bit of an emotional topic for me) but I greatly appreciated the link that was posted as I found it very helpful to see my own thoughts and knowledge expressed so succinctly. But you insist that it's 99% BS, and dismiss it. NO, Specifically what is factually untrue or even misleading? Thank you for sharing your ability to see nuance in this mess. It encourages me that there are some folks who can still think critically and are not just falling into one or the other camp of extremes "Covid is a hoax"<--->"Trust the science". It remains relevent to Bitcoin as this journey we are being taken on most certainly has a huge financial component, and I believe Bitcoin threatens exactly those powers who are either causing or using this crisis for/to their ends. I am sorry for the loss of your father. |
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Bitcoin is on track
El Duderino is back
I'm hitting the sack
(Yeah I know, not my best work).
I dunno.. A rhyming Haiku is sort of special. |
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1. Make new software.
2. Discover limitations and mistakes in the code or archetecture.
3. Succumb to the temptation to tear it all up and start over.
Hearn was hardly arguing to tear it all up and start all over, merely to increase an arbitrarily decided limit. Regardless of whether you think that is a good idea or not, it would not be a huge change and if anything qualifies as that, it's LN which is trying to take on the heavy lifting of a decentralized payment network. The irony, of course, is that if it is successful, it will need the changes that Hearn was advocating for anyway. I personally would like to see a block size increase eventually. And I imagine in time miners will signal in agreement to such a proposal, as will validating nodes. But Hearn's post was a post mortem for bitcoin. Without the change he considered it a failure. You are right it would be a small change code wise. Just as increasing the issuance cap, or even adding a perpetual block reward would be. But like those, it was a fundamental shift that would change the entire system at a fundamental level. I would say it was more about tearing up the social contract, game theory, economics, and security and starting over at the time. I do not think the protocol was ready for such a change. It may never be. But I also think keeping blocks smaller and thereby protecting bitcoins decentralization is worth remaining conservative. |
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