Are we poor again?  |
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It seems to me that the 6-day mini correction is done and we are ready to lift off again.
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So far 24K being rejected multiple times doesn't hurt much. BTC has plenty of time this year and the first half of 2024 to climb two more floors and stabilize around them - 30K-ish and 40K-ish. For those who doesn't get my thought - by stabilizing I mean the median price yearly speaking. This means that for a short time the price can climb up much more but then it will drop back and stay there for a longer period. So, the year high could be 50K+ but the median price around 30K. This is what is important for the next bull market, not the spikes. I really hope this will happen, but there is still a possibility of returning to sub 20K prices if the resistance 24K holds for too long. Historically, however, any price resistance far below a round number has never been a psychological barrier, so 24K shouldn't be a problem.
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Next stop $25000  Sorry, I couldn't resist  |
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#Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the world this year, according to latest data by Goldman Sachs  https://twitter.com/home?utm_source=homescreen&utm_medium=shortcutI guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year. |
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If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.
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23K!  |
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Ain’t it strange that the price is not falling despite the Genesis news?
Maybe this has something to do with it. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-64338010Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX's new chief executive, John Ray, is looking into the possibility of reviving the platform.
He told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that he has set up a taskforce to explore restarting FTX.com to "recover more value" for people who lost money. Mr Ray is exploring the idea of resurrecting the platform instead of simply liquidating assets or selling the platform, according to the WSJ report. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithosphere-litho-blockchain-developer-plans-060000354.htmlSeattle, Washington--(Newsfile Corp. - January 19, 2023) - Lithosphere blockchain core developer KaJ Labs is willing to help Digital Currency Group (DCG) with its insolvency issues by extending a credit facility of $830 million. The food can become shit but shit can't become food. |
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This liftoff has a lot of similarity to April 2019.
In 2019 the initial pump was from about $4K to $5.2K, then continued to $13.8K.
If we literally translate %, then initial spike (from 16.69K to 21.05K) was similar-26.7% in 2019 and about 25.8% here.
In 2019 the "pump" continued for another 166%, and with similar percentages we would be at $55.8K at the "local" pre-peak this year.
That would be tremendous, but kind of high end of my expectations for this early in a bull cycle, unless this bull will be much stronger than 2019-2021.
Length-wise, if we repeat (it was 3mo minus 5-6 days in 2019), in would be over by about last week of March-first week of April.
Since March 31 is the end of Q1 and April 15-18 is a typical tax day in US (this year it is on 18th), is kind of logical to expect something in that vicinity.
Was it 2019 or 2015 when there was the rumor that the first pump after the bear was facilitated by the one coin scam? That was 2015 I think. In 2019 there was something else, can't remember what exactly, but some group of people managed to get a shitload of coins somehow and were meant to be distributing from the 13k area all the way to the covid crash. I remember people on this forum posting reports of whenever they moved coins. https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/the-onecoin-scam-the-dazzling-story-of-the-biggest-crypto-ponzi-in-historyFirst of all, 1-day chart in the last week looks absolutely hyperbolic! This is BTC we know and love! As for the reasons of 2019 pump, you are confusing onecoin scam which has nothing to do with BTC. Onecoin is related to Ruja - a bulgarian (shame for me, being from this country), who got popular and friend with many politicians including the president. In 2017 she dissapeared with 4bil euro stolen from investors in onecoin. Recently she claimed an appartment in London, which means she is alive and well. I'm amused how Interpol and FBI couldn't find her yet. None of her property in Bulgaria is confiscated. She could live easily still here surrounded by an army of bodyguards. I've seen her many times with her baby in 2017, because it happens that I stayed in a hotel near her beach villa in the best seaside location in Bulgaria. I think she had around 20 bodyguards, but neighbours say they were at least 90. Regarding the 2019 pump, I remember there was a Chinese ponzi, which avoided somehow BTC ban by offering shares not related officialy to BTC. In fact it was making profits by buying real BTCs until the sell pressure got them exposed. Coinbase also played the usual negative role, since in the last day of the pump which was above 30%, Coinbase froze for several hours causing panic. And this lead to the first crash which neutralized the dayly gains. I won't be surprised if this current pump is also caused by a bad player. Hopefully it will last for another month or two before the bear market resumes. In this case, we may see prices above 30K and if there is another final 30% daily pump even above 40K for awhile. |
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The problem is that in my country there are two requirements to get a pension and health care: 1. I have to go to work for 40 years and 2. I have to be at least 65 years old. If the 2nd is not fulfilled there is no way of buying it. I could only buy years for the 1st requirement. Currently I'm way below $0.5mil, so there is no hope in the next 5 years to reach $10mil. And the houses here are quite expensive (close to the prices of French Riviera like Monaco), despite the low average salary. So, I have to spend almost everything if we reach 100K to buy a good house. But this won't be life changing event, just a headache. And even if I reach $10mil, how could I protect them from myself, thieves, or divorce, etc. with no income - impossible! In 2021 I was too excited, bragged to my friends, spent too much although for good reasons, gave away some to my friends and charity. Then I started to realize that I can't impose on myself rules about spending. Not to mention paying salary to someone to look after my real estate. So, I came to the conclusion that I just have to continue working and forget about my stash. It is sad that when someone gets to 65 usually is very weak and ill, like my mother who died from cancer. But nothing can be done - I was born a slave in my country and I can't leave. Now my dad is very ill, so he can't enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin. I was also ill, fortunately the surgery went well. But for how long until the next big illness, I don't know. So, I stopped worrying about the price. I just try to live my life the best way I can with the least possible expenses. I really don't need yachts, or beachfront villas, etc. Just a few good friends to go together through life, that's all I need.
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.....The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire...
I don't get it.... why would you need the pension, if you were "a billionaire" (or rich enough) ? Because I can't trust myself. I can spend billions on yachts, etc. and live like a homeless. Or, my future wife can leave me and get all of it. There are way too many examples for that. And I don't want to finish in the gutter with no income and food on the table. The only possiblity for a self custody fund is the life insurance. But not completely, since I could withdraw everything anytime albeit with a loss. |
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I must confess something. I stopped caring for BTC's price somewhere in 2022. Then I realized BTC won't change my life the way I hoped. The reasons are not related to the current low price. The problem is my country. There is no such thing as an early retirement. I have to wait until I am 65 years old if I want to get a pension. And this is 15 years away from now. So, I can't quit my job even if were a billionaire. I can't count on the value of my stash for my everyday expenses. The big money can be spent in a matter of days. Easy come, easy gone. So, I have to keep working, which is not so bad actually. I even work at a 2nd place 300km away and travel once per 2 weeks excluding winter and summer, when I am on vacation. So, what can Bitcoin give to me - just a better protection against the inflation and that I could buy anything essentioal for me and my family. This is good of course, but way too far from my dreams of travelling around the world and buying beachfront villas... I did everything I could - even being all in for the last bear cycle. So, for me this is kinda dissapointing. But I learned to be happy and live without watching the price every day, feeling bad for the crashes. I will continue DCAing if the price is under 20K but not above. I reached my stash goal which can allow me to live without any concerns. I think it is better this way than to harbour false hopes and live with fears.
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The 2022 was very rough for Bitcoin. Almost all institutional investors turned out to be ponzis. How and when the trust in Bitcoin offering institutions will be restored, I have no idea. I think the first few months of the next year will give us a hint what will happen in 2025. If the steady downward continues there are chances 2023 to end up with lower prices than now. And this will cast a doubt whether the halving will lead to a new ATH. May be this will be the first time for this pattern to break?
Now, it is clear to everyone that the price is no longer a function of demand/supply only. There are quite a few big players manipulating the price. Some of them do it legally, others completely illegaly. For example, the fishy everyday liquidation of the longs in 2022 was due to the war between 3AC and Almeida. The worst part is that Almeida shorted thousands of paper Bitcoins. Hopefully, the foul players will be all out of the play and this will bring a healing to the market. Then we can hope for a new ATH in 2025 and possibly an exponential bull run with ATH's above 150K.
But I'm a bit sceptical about the exent of the next bull run. First of all, there is always our arch enemy China with their pannic ban announcements every time bitcoin is in the bull territory for more than a month. Their whole economy is a tower of cards and they are terrified of bitcoin like satan of Jesus. And whether we wish it or not, hundreds of millions chinese will find a way to purchase Bitcoins during the bull run and then dump it with a huge loss when each monday PBOC publishes a newsletter how it will ban bitcoins, vpn's and put in jail the users of vpn's. Second, Bitcoin is a threat to the world fiat empire and there always be old corrupt clowns like Gensler, US and EU bakners etc. who seek a way to ban via POW enviroment arguments. And finally, there always be plenty of morons to trust other liars with their money, creating a cluster of ponzis which will collapse in the same way as FTX, Almeida, 3AC, terra, etc.
So, I expect the next bull run to start somewhere in 2025 with a possible delay to 2029 if there are other major issues. Then the bear market will come again, unless all the above scenarious change by then. I dream of a world with Bitcoin recognized as the only true money and becoming invincible to any FUD. Bitcoin survived all kind of trials and storms, and it will survive any other storm on the way. So, no need to worry about fiat savings and expenses. Just keep hodling+DCAing and all will be fine.
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You realize that everyone with a phone can tweet rumors, right? So far not a single fact sustaing this isolated FUD from a probably scam account. Grayscale makes insane profits because of the high fees, while its investors have the choice either to hold their shares with the hope of an ETF conversion one day, when they will be able to sell the market price, or to sell now for $8.33 per share, i.e. $8330 per Bitcoin. And this is an internal sale, no actual Bitcoins are sold on the market, except the daily fee in BTC's.
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Merry Christmas All!  |
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Congrats for Argentina! Messi deserved to become a world champion!
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I don't know how, but BTCitcoin will survive this bear market. The question is how long it will last. I expected it to end around this time, but now I'm not so confident. Anyway, I just bought my monthly DCA corn. Working in two different cities hendreds of miles away turns out to be very exciting experience for me. With almost double income than 1 year before, I can increase my stash even more than I thought. BTCitcoin changed me so much that I prefer to increase my stash rather than my fiat savings. My dream now is to increase by 50% my stash in this severe bear winter.
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Drugged and seducted victims of a vicious pedophile  |
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