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1601  Economy / Lending / Re: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending" on: August 06, 2012, 01:25:42 AM
Imagine if you setup a mining farm using USD then bitcoin prices rose 3000%

That would suck a lot compared to buying bitcoins since the difficulty increase is going to eat up a lot or all of the gains.
1602  Economy / Gambling / Re: SealsWithClubs.eu - 60BTC guarantee tournament Sunday on: August 05, 2012, 10:17:20 PM
You've played far less than you think since getting 10000 krill. Besides that, it is impossible to earn the amount of rakeback you are demanding in the amount of hands it takes to earn 7000 krill. If you only played 4 handed hands at the highest stakes (which is nothing like your actual play) the most rake you could pay is 700 * 25 = 17500. Two percent of that is 350. Your amount is much lower because you played in games that get you krill faster per rake paid and because some of that krill came without actually playing from the bonus that was paid in June.

Many many times I have given chips for free to new players, players returning after a break (including you), and players who are confused or inconvenienced because of something on the site. That's all at my discretion and I'm giving you nothing extra now or ever again.

I will pay your 19 chips manually if you like since it is below the threshold for withdrawals. Post an address here if you like.
1603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. on: August 05, 2012, 07:51:21 PM
Kupsi compare cumulative and non-cumulative versions, and then please stop posting here.

My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply.

So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle.

Of course that is the case. I've been telling people that the price is more representative for all block reward adjustments already factored in.
People insist on the opposite, hence this thread.

Ah ok.

Like I said I do think there is an element of it that will have an effect only after the drop. And different traders theories will cause them to make extreme moves at various times shortly before and after the drop, but I think the only periods with -real- (in some sense) effects are Always and After The Drop.
1604  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 2 Million unspent pristine bitcoins on: August 05, 2012, 07:37:49 PM
Satoshi's a patient guy.

Satoshi's dead.  There is no other explanation.  Why else would he disappear so suddenly, and without saying fair well to the community.   It was a sudden death like being hit by a bus, or drowning, or a heart attack.  If it was cancer or something that takes its time, he would have told us, and he would have transferred his coin to a successor.

RIP Satoshi Nakamoto
??  -   2011



Interesting theory...did no one really know _anything_ about him? Surely someone knew something...if no one really knew anything, then I doubt he's dead...he was always planning to disappear.

Naw, he got Gavin to agree to take the lead before he left. I mean it is possible that he knew he was dying or something, but it's clear that he didn't just get hit by a bus one day.
1605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. on: August 05, 2012, 07:32:40 PM
Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue.
That don't increase bitcoin days destroyd. You can send 1 BTC 1,000,000 times a day and it's still 1 bitcoin day destroyd.

Do it with more coins.

How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period.

I was referring to the last stable period.

My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply.

So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle.
1606  Economy / Gambling / Re: SealsWithClubs.eu - 60BTC guarantee tournament Sunday on: August 05, 2012, 07:24:13 PM
I responded to you within 3 hours of your first email, paid the very small amount owed and explained why you are confused about how much you are owed.

The main confusion is that we doubled old players krill in early June to apologize for the time that the krill  system was broken and to thank them for sticking around for so long.

Since his krill doubled without any play and he didn't realize it he is assuming he's been earning 2% for a very long time, but that is not the case.
1607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. on: August 05, 2012, 07:18:12 PM
How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period.
1608  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gauging interest: A mining contract marketplace. on: August 05, 2012, 07:10:06 PM
Oh, I didn't realize you were handling USD. Doesn't that make it a lot harder and riskier for you?

Do you think you can handle USD better than the current exchanges? Why?
All contracts are bought and sold in bitcoins only, but in order to attract the users that want to simply get bitcoins by spending dollars, automatic USD->BTC conversion based on aggregate market rates is available on the contract buying side only.
The way this works is that you click a "USD" button, and all of the ASK prices are displayed in USD, and your buy panel displays USD. Bid prices and the sell panel still display BTC.

This means that you cannot withdraw more USD than you deposit (since there is no way to obtain USD in your Ferroh account or move USD into a Ferroh interest paying account). That should make us a much smaller blip on the AML investigator's radar while we seek greater legitimacy (as a money transmitter) in the eyes of the Canadian government.


That's interesting. I wonder why there aren't more sites that only go one way? Seems like that would let people have less regulatory headache like you say.
1609  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Chess and Bitcoin on: August 05, 2012, 06:53:12 PM
Last time this came up my advice was to change the rules slightly (maybe even have a bunch of variants to choose from) so that out-of-the-box computers can't play. That would raise the bar greatly and I don't think it would be a problem until you had some success and resources to combat the programmers making special bots to play.

Or you could totally embrace it, call it cyborgpoker.com or something and make all the best programs available on the site etc.
1610  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Rise of Bitcoin Cost on: August 05, 2012, 08:23:58 AM
Heh, I'm not sure what the problem is either.

Problem? I'm not quite sure I would call this a problem.

Neither would I.

Bitcoin prices rise...

Not sure what the problem is, I would love to know why.
1611  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What could cause Bitcoin to fail? on: August 05, 2012, 08:21:14 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if a large jump in hashing power from an attempted attack resulted in a second jump in defence of the network. A virtual currency is inevitable and a non-centralised one that keeps a record of every transaction is by far the lesser of all possible evils, imagine the power any centralised system would have if it controlled the global economy. I'd guess many ISP's already have a mining system ready to run in case of attack, all this deep packet inspection BS has forced them to invest in the right kind of hardware and if bitcoin takes off it puts them in a very strong position.

Wut?

Many ISPs think Bitcoin is important enough to set up systems for its defense, but they aren't interested in actually turning them on now? They are going to wait until attack or high difficulty? Besides being made up from no evidence it doesn't even make sense.
1612  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gauging interest: A mining contract marketplace. on: August 05, 2012, 07:04:26 AM
You can get the same effect with the ability to short BTC and buy/sell difficulty futures.

Since the [much larger] non-mining part of the bitcoin world demands the ability to short BTC, it would make more sense to create a difficulty futures market than to duplicate that functionality.

With the upcoming block reward halving, I'm sure there are oodles of speculators who'd like to bet on its effect on the difficulty.

Part of the idea here is to give new Bitcoin users an attractive way to get into buying bitcoins.

New Bitcoin users understand mining far better than they understand difficulty futures, and even if contracts end up slightly overpriced, users that buy contracts will get some bitcoins.

Some users view buying a contract with USD simply as a way to get bitcoins over time. Difficulty futures don't appeal to those people, in my experience.


Oh, I didn't realize you were handling USD. Doesn't that make it a lot harder and riskier for you?

Do you think you can handle USD better than the current exchanges? Why?
1613  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gauging interest: A mining contract marketplace. on: August 05, 2012, 06:11:36 AM
How does this compare to contracts available on GLBSE?
The GLBSE has less limits. You can and choose who to mine with. Bad contracts are met with failure. Good contracts continue to be sold. A Gigahash from Sarah may be worth more than a Gigahash from John.

Ferroh requires all fund to be held in escrow among other rules. A Gigahash is a communal unit. All Gigahashes are forceably equal. If somehow some contracts are bad, every contract is diminished unless Ferroh pays out of pocket.



This seems contradictory. If all funds are held in escrow then they are force ably equal. It's just like a USD/BTC market, commodity on both sides.

@OP, yes, I'd play. It's a good idea I hope you follow through with it.
1614  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What could cause Bitcoin to fail? on: August 05, 2012, 05:42:37 AM
Everyone around me (in meatspace that is, not on the forums) tells me I shouldn't be so reckless by putting so much of my savings into BTC.

But really - what are the real risks here? Under what scenario could bitcoin possibly fail?

Right now a government could run an on going 51% attack without much trouble. I don't think we're completely out of the woods on this until the value of a days blocks is well over a million 2012 bucks.

I don't think interest waning to near nothingness is even a remote possibility at this point, but I guess that is a scenario.

My understanding is that mainstream crypto has never broken suddenly, there is always time to switch. But it isn't completely impossible I guess.
1615  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What could cause Bitcoin to fail? on: August 05, 2012, 05:33:37 AM
This should do it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpKda4Tj4H8

1616  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Need help - Bitcoin error- Can I recover BTC? on: August 05, 2012, 04:31:31 AM
That has my private keys? lol Wow, I really am a dumbass. Wait, so I'd need something other than the wallet.dat to get the coins?

>.<   Sorry I've been working for nearly 14 hrs straight and not exactly the brightest bulb at the moment.  I'll go read a guide so I dont have to keep bugging someone to walk me through it.

That sentence was hard to understand. He means back up wallet.dat because wallet.dat has your private keys in it. If it is safely backed up nothing can go wrong (as long as no one gets a copy of it).
1617  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Rise of Bitcoin Cost on: August 05, 2012, 04:29:17 AM
Heh, I'm not sure what the problem is either.
1618  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: arXiv Silk Road Study on: August 05, 2012, 03:26:35 AM
Quote
Over our entire collection interval, the daily volume
of sales approaches 11,650 BTC/day. By means of comparison, the average daily volume of exchanges for
US dollars on the largest Bitcoin exchange, Mt.Gox [4] is approximately 59,980 BTC/day

Very interesting quote in my opinion. A buyer on SR needs to buy BTC, while the seller on SR needs to sell it if he wants fiat.
So every BTC traded on SR is traded twice on Mtgox. That means 11,5k daily SR volume can lead to 23k daily Mtgox volume.
That's close to _half_ of Mtgox volume!!

Now not every seller will want to sell his BTC, but it's an interesting quote nevertheless.

Edit: Okay, maybe not close to half. But significant still. This does dismiss other exchanges though. How big of a market-share does Mtgox currently have? 60% I believe?

No way does every SR trade hit Gox twice. Lots of miners are going to just buy directly, lots of sellers are going to save in BTC, some will spend revenue back at SR as mentioned. Then you've got the fact that other exchanges make up about 20% of formal volume and the fact the SR users are going to tend more heavily away from Gox and will sell OTC if possible. I'd be very surprised if 1/2 of SR volume ended up on Gox, def not 2x.
1619  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: High Resolution, Dual-Difficulty Blockchain on: August 05, 2012, 03:08:59 AM
I was not imagining the minor blocks as forming a chain. They'd all just be orphaned/ignored eventually but in the moment you can say to yourself, "Ok, 3 out of 4 minor blocks included the tx I'm interested in and none of them included a different one using the same input, sounds good to me."

The missing piece to me is why should miners broadcast these minor blocks?
1620  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Win up to 10000 BTC at btclottery.net - it works I won 0.1 BTC on: August 05, 2012, 02:01:30 AM
It would be nice to see an address owned by btclottery that currently own 10'000 btc to pay out the potential max win.

hmm I think that they are new and the big prize is not already paid out. But it works for me. I just play today one more time Wink I will see ...

Thus they should be able to show that they still have the 10000BTC.
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