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2021  Economy / Speculation / Re: 4th of July BTC Bubble? on: June 13, 2012, 05:45:06 AM
There are those that believe a huge increase in demand for BTC occurs around major holidays due to SR users placing escrow orders to enjoy over the holiday.  Do you think we'll see a BTC price spike approaching the 4th of July holiday?  Discuss.

Maybe on a bigger holiday, don't get me wrong I like the 4th, but you can't buy beer with bitcoins.

False???

http://bitcoin.travel/whiskey-dicks/

I went there with bitcoins and I left with all my bitcoins. Sometimes they take them though.

But I know I saw a beer store online at one point.
2022  Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining on: June 13, 2012, 05:00:50 AM
Why does (1) matter except for it's potential effects on (2)?

Imagine that 1 BTC = $100. How would you feel about 1.35 BTC for 5 Mh/s? Not so great, I'd reckon, since you would be FAR better off spending a few BTC on mining equipment of your own. Now imagine that 1 BTC = $0.10. Etc.

Why not? (Because difficulty is way up, but that's all covered in (2))
2023  Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining on: June 13, 2012, 05:00:06 AM
Why does (1) matter except for it's potential effects on (2)?

Want to buy a Zimbabwean govt bond?

The issue is your numeraire.

With a mining bond the Numéraire is Bitcoin. I don't see how USD matters in the slightest.

I don't want to buy a Zimbabwean bond. Do you want to buy caramel candies from Bees Brothers?
2024  Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes on: June 13, 2012, 04:43:50 AM

Can you reproduce the "tampered" error freemoney?


I got it like 3 times in a row earlier (emailed you about it) while reusing an address and then didn't get it when I tried a new address. Now I can't make it happen.
2025  Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes on: June 13, 2012, 03:55:53 AM
I changed the games to not expire for 8 hours, I was only thinking about delayed payments like from Seals or similar. Forgot that people could get locked longer that way. Change to whatever you like while testing notme.
2026  Economy / Services / Re: Bitcoin Camming Site on: June 13, 2012, 03:20:07 AM
Show on now. Good quality video, usually it skips a ton for me.
2027  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 13, 2012, 02:31:39 AM
I can't believe sometimes how the forum promotes a free market, yet yells about what the fair market value of bitcoin is. The fair market value is what people are willing to buy it for or what people are willing to sell it for, which is at the moment $5.7. If you disagree, name your fair market value and I will buy/sell from/to you at that value.

Just pretend they are yelling about what they expect it to be in the near future.
2028  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] Mt.Gox Withdrawal Clarification on: June 13, 2012, 02:30:36 AM
Ok, I celebrate your suddenly sincerity stroke.

Now a question from a non US user:

- Can you please make the same sincerity effort with tainted coins policy? Look. I (and I'm sure a lot of people too) am in no way taking the risk of using your exchange because I suspect you use a dark tainted coin list and a tracking blockchain software to follow them. Is it any way that we, the customers, can gain acces to this software-database before the bitcoin transfer or will the use of your service continue being an act of faith?



I believe that this has been made clear already on the forum, but the short answer is : we are not going to do anything to this coins unless we are asked to. Basically if an exchange need our help and want us follow these coins we will do what we can to help.

So you are going to hold funds on request from other exchanges? Only exchanges no one else? Will you be telling the victim which exchange froze their funds?
2029  Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining on: June 13, 2012, 01:40:01 AM
I do think, eventually, somebody will do a very thorough number crunching analysis of fixed bonds ROI, which will help to set the price of these sorts of bonds in the future. Then the only real differences in the price of bonds will be credit rating, also to be determined by reputable Bitcoin credit agencies.

Oh, there has been some thorough number crunching analysis which has been done. They are largely depleting assets and somewhat like an oil well.

The three main variables are (1) BTC:USD exchange rate, (2) network difficulity and (3) counter-party risk.

I had lunch with a couple attorneys last week and we discussed securitizing bonds. Just goes to show that there are all types of interesting opportunities available with this nascent economy.

Why does (1) matter except for it's potential effects on (2)?
2030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 13, 2012, 01:17:00 AM
* Rumors of European capital controls strong positive for bitcoin. Move currency around the world with no govt interaction.
* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Anything could happen, but there is a non-zero risk of waking up to a $10+ bitcoin any given night.

MtGox not paying fiat might be very strongly positive in the short term, but it would probably result in extra selling at other markets and off-market pretty quickly.
2031  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 13, 2012, 01:15:12 AM
* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Rumours of MtGox not paying USD?  Any evidence of that?  If true, seems like a reason to get money out of MtGox any way possible, rather than convert it to bitcoin.

The way possible would be buying bitcoin...
2032  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: A proposal for a reputational system on: June 12, 2012, 11:52:06 PM
Some other really important factors that get lost in a scalar are "how long ago did this person prove trustworthy" and "how likely are they to have let their reputation credentials get hijacked".
2033  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: A proposal for a reputational system on: June 12, 2012, 11:50:30 PM
That makes sense.

Still, it's hard to get something so simple to say "Honors their contracts" into something like a number. Like if I see 6/7 what am I to think? Do I really think that 11/11 is the same or even likely at all to be similar to another 11/11 I did business with?

Some contracts require nothing more than not being a total scumbag, for example, "I have $100 on dwolla and will send it after you send me 19 bitcoins". Unless I'm a total liar I'm going to uphold it and when you rank me perfectly it means a lot less than something like, "I can deliver XYZ software with A, B, C, D, and E features by time T" That requires proper estimating of the task, ones skill, avoidance of bad luck like illness etc etc. If it is completed it ought be a large boon to reputation and if it only partially fails it doesn't mean the person is untrustworthy with smaller or even similar jobs.

It makes me think of the doctor who has a great record because he never takes risky cases.

I don't mean to imply that work should not be done on this, just that a complete solution (even for something as simple as "does this person honor contracts" is probably going to evade us forever and tools for managing the information we can get about potential trading partners is a good place to start.
2034  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] USD - Bitcoin Bearish Trust on: June 12, 2012, 10:14:40 PM
Malicious operator is the worst case of the general problem of needing 50% in order to redeem. It's a lot like no redeem-ability at all.

I don't know why several people would want to become authorized already. The upside is essentially being able to turn $500 worth of coins into $500 unless there is a large mismatch.

Allowing redeem-ability of a small fraction of the total amount of units is the fix, but that might be a headache. MtGox codes is the simplest way I can think of, but then you've got that counter-party risk too so I don't think it's a long term solution.
2035  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: A proposal for a reputational system on: June 12, 2012, 08:35:56 PM
What you describe (religious people giving bad ratings) is a fundamental problem with one dimensional systems. They just won't work as general purpose reputations which are certainly multi-dimensional.

An ebay seller rating can be one number because it pretty much just means "Does this person send what they posted".

But a general reputation covers so many things. The solution is probably a bunch of different ratings, maybe connected or maybe not.

The ultimate answer probably looks a lot like no answer at all, people just making connections and vouching for each other to make new connections. Tools for finding paths of trust of arbitrary types types would be nice. I have a great reputation without being involved in any official reputation systems at all.
2036  Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes on: June 12, 2012, 08:13:37 PM
Yes, smart. That's the way.

I was looking at the feasibility of brute-forcing your hash last night.

You use a 10 character base64 'junk', so even if I can predict the exact time, and guess the right preselected 0-9999 number, I still have to run an expected (64^10)/2 = half a million million million hashes to see if I'm right.

The entire bitcoin network currently hashes at 12 Thash/s.  So if I could convince them all to help me win your 4 BTC wallet balance, it would take us about 13 hours to brute force one of your hashes (given that I already guessed the time and preselected number correctly).

So I think it's pretty safe to increase the time the user has to make his guess a little.  Smiley

The bets will get bigger!

The balance is actually about 20BTC right now, with bets that win 20% being the max, but like you say the 4BTC is all that matters for brute forcing. If you ever lose a bet you'll be able to bet at least a little bit more the next time, unless someone has reserved some of the balance in between.

But, yeah, I just changed it to an hour. Should be good enough.
2037  Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes on: June 12, 2012, 07:49:48 PM
I don't intend other wagers to be showing, I'll look into hashing the id. Simple hashing won't be enough, maybe the hash of the payment address or something. And if you visit a non existent id's page it should just take you to a new game.

Ah, I meant the hash that you already show.  The hash of the secret.  Or maybe a prefix of it if you want to keep the URL reasonably short.

So instead of visiting ?id=34, I visit ?hash=2490b823498e


Yes, smart. That's the way.
2038  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: FirstBits.com - remember and share Bitcoin addresses on: June 12, 2012, 07:38:06 PM
The "escrow" address (as labeled by blockchain.info) is not added as a firstbits address at this point in time.  All other addresses involved in a multisig transaction would be added as firstbits addresses.
Would you consider defining "appears" on http://firstbits.com/about.php to exclude appearances in OP_CHECKMULTISIG outputs?


I can't tell what is best, but we should all do it the same and be clear.

Want to see what Piuk thinks and then lock it in 'officially'?
2039  Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes on: June 12, 2012, 03:46:28 PM
Guessed 7777 and won Smiley

Dime sent!
2040  Economy / Gambling / Re: MyriadCoins.com - Giving away dimes on: June 12, 2012, 03:19:32 PM
How about an option to not have to specify an address for winnings, but instead have me check a box to agree that you'll return winnings to one of the addresses I pay from?

Right now no bitcoin magic is happening so that would be for version 2.0.

But even them I'm hesitant, I'd need that WARNING showing prominently and still people will mess up. The "Send back to yourself market" is pretty well served too.
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