At least he had the experience to share. Like I've never had millions to spend, so losing it on gambling would at least have been an adventure of some kind. Like when you hear that someone crashed a lambo. At least he had it for a while and drove it to the end of its road
That said, I hope he recovers from the addiction and one day is able to talk about it all with a smile, drinking beer, not like it's a personal tragedy but more like something he survived and became stronger.

What if it reaches 15k and bounces back? Do you feel like you can catch that bottom?
It's proven that reading a bitcoin bottom or top is really hard. Some people claim they did it but in reality they were doing DCA both up and down. This means that they were buying and selling at every significant level, like in the bull market they were selling at 25k, 30k, 35k, 40k, and so on, getting rid of 10% each time. When we fell below 30k they were buying at 25k, 22k, 20k and will be buying all the way down to 10 k if that happens.

In reality a worst thing that can happen to risk on investments like bitcoin is an 85% correction which would put us at 12k. In 2020 we went to 4k and I held, so I don't really care if we go to 12k by the end of the year. In 2 years we will retest the ATH, so by that time I'm planning to add another 1 BTC (if we stay below 20k because I don't earn enough to get 1 btc @60k, so low price is actually better if you're trying to get as much as possible before the next halving).

Great point. Some urges can be compared to a dam that's struggling to hold water or a contracting spring and sexual tension is just like that. You can release it in many ways, for instance by masturbating and it's proven that without masturbation many "normal" people wouldn't be able to function in a society because their needs are so high that it's difficult to fulfill them in a normal relationship.
Gambling is different. It's not a tension, but rather alcohol that brings you pleasure every time you get a small dose, but you can overdose it and feel bad the next day. You can't satisfy a drunkard or a drug addict by letting them smell alcohol or drugs or play a drinking game. They need the real thing. 

You see, the problem in this assumption is that bitcoin cannot rise without the stock market. There used to be no correlation between the two, but at some point big wall street players who made money on the rising indexes begun to invest more in risky assets. Before, bitcoin used to pump on its own, like in 2011 and 2013. There was no wall street in the space, no leveraged exchanges, no loan platforms and no stable coins, but there were bull and bear markets for bitcoin. They are still here just that they are started and ended by stocks because hedge funds have more money than normal bitcoin investors and can tip the scales if they want to and all the small players see that as an omen and follow.

This is retarded if you ask me but it's how the market works. One or two big players overleverage and get in trouble due to some real world problems, like they get sued for something unrelated to bitcoin, or their company is battling a takeover and they sell a few thousand bitcoins. Suddenly all those who were leveraged get liquidated and seeing the big drop all those who were saving up to finally get 1 bitcoin also sell at a loss because something big hast to be happening with bitcoin for all those people to sell.
Bear markets rarely have anything to do with bitcoin itself, but usually a lot with how confident or how scared investors are. Probably the only time it wasn't so was when Gox admitted they had no money because they got hacked and were lying to customers for months trying to raise money.

A selloff may happen or it may not happen. It all depends on how many whales will bankrupt on stocks and feel the need to cover their losses by selling bitcoins. Tom cannot predict that because there are no technical indicators showing that someone will dump coins on the market or not. He's taking these predictions out of his ass and that's why they are never any good.

Note that he used to give exact numbers like Bitcoin to 50k in 2018 and now he's back to generalizing about downside risk. Downside risk in a bear market... no shit Sherlock!

Maybe I'll become an analyst at Fundstrat? I'll be telling them that bitcoin will go higher once we're above the 50 week MA and I'll warn about downside hen we go below it. I wonder how much an analyst makes these days

On one hand you did great OP by buying bitcoin  and not some altcoin. You also chose good buying in at over 70% discount, which should reduce the risk of losing money to a minimum.
On the other hand, you took a loan and interest can be different in 2 years if the inflation keeps rising. Remember that banks can renegotiate your deal if the economy takes a huge hit and also, your fiat will be worth less, so you won't have other choices but to sell bitcoin and take a loss or sell some other property to pay the bank.

1 Bitcoin is just a number. You don't need that much. What if you had 0.5?
I feel like you're chasing profits because you're giving yourself a timeline of 2 years. What if nothing happens by then? Will you consider bitcoin a bad investment?

You're like those guys who invest in bitcoin because they have something to buy and they say to themselves" next halving I'm getting a corvete because I have to show off to my friends! Since bitcoin can reach 100k after the 2024 and my dream car costs 70k, therefore I need 0.7 BTC at $100k to cover that, so I'll take a lonan, buy 0.8 BTC, 0.1 will cover the fees and the rest is for the car"
Plans like that rarely work and then you fall into depression.

Don't expect anything, consider the money lost already, stop following the price and just live your life.

When the price was down in 2018 and 2019 I kept living my life and just accumulating bit by bit from signature campaigns and it paid off. I'm doing the same thing now. No loans, no trading, just holding until something good happens and something will eventually happen. If not this year then in 3 years.

It's normal that guys like him come out with their worse predictions for the bear market. Nobody pays that much attention when we're in bull market and Mike Novogratz comes up and says we're going to 200k, but people get worried when bears say we're going to 1k like they did in 2019. Funny thing is that people who make these predictions often consider themselves "objective traders" and then at 4k they come up with 1k which is 75% drop and that never even gets close to what they were predicting. Tone Vays I'm talking about you

Another funny thing is that these exchanges were doing fine in 2020 when we dropped to 4k in March 2020 but suddenly they're in trouble at 20k? Who's going to believe that? If we were at 3k right now they'd probably all go bankrupt, but so would 99% of people who hold cryptocurrencies. It's not going to happen.

Meditation? Really? How is that going to help? To meditate you have to stop gambling first and sit down in a calm environment where nobody can bother you, with no phones ringing and messengers beeping. How is someone who is gambling at work or in an internet cafe going to find such place? Given that a person is home alone, if that person cannot control gambling urges they will not stop and start meditating. They will sit and play until they run out of money or the computer breaks.

Canada is acting in a very similar way. We all knew about China and how things are there with their full control over people, public executions and constant denial of freedoms, but I used to think that Australia and Canada are democracies.

As for the self exclusion it makes not much sense because they clearly state that it's going to be forced upon Australian casinos. What about those situated abroad? How is that going to stop people from gambling? IMO nobody forces anyone to gamble. If they want to do it they will and no additional options and boxes to tick will stop them.

There was a lot about bitcoin in the media after the MtGox collapse and bans in China so I looked it up because if governments are banning it and people think it's in a bear market this might be the thing to get involved with. I went through all the stages. Tried cloud mining, trading, gambling, investing, staking, you name it. After all of it, buying and holding bitcoin is the way to go. I still hold some of those cheap bitcoins that I got for a few hundred $.

The correlation is due to the fact that Wall street and banks entered the market.

Back in the day people had to buy bitcoin or mine it to be able to sell it. Now they can trade with borrowed money and banks moved in, like when we had that strange case of Jamie Dimon criticizing bitcoin and saying that he'd fire anyone who's caught trading bitcoin and then we heard that they set up a bitcoin trading desk in his bank and that his daughter owns bitcoin... When these guys invest they play around with the balance sheets, they take loans and the money they can invest depends on how much the fed allows them to have. It depends on whether people deposit and save up, or spend a lot.

Then we had covid and lockdowns. People weren't spending much because they simply couldn't go to concerts, gyms, they couldn't travel, so they were saving up, scared of possible pandemic. The governments printed money to give out stimulus packages all around the world. Then lockdowns were lifted, suddenly the covid threat wasn't high anymore, so everybody began to spend and that's where inflation hit its all time high, wall street loans skyrocketed in value and they were forced to sell assets to cover them. You know the rest.

Hopefully they are out already and won't have any coins to sell after the next FED meeting. Eventually they will be out and bitcoin will no longer follow indexes.

WHY?

Ethereum, on the other hand, comes with several unique perks. For starters, the transaction speed on the Ethereum platform is much higher. The network can handle double Bitcoin's transactions in a second, which makes a difference when talking about large transfers.

Secondly, Ethereum is more than a payment system; it's a computer network for smart contracts. With Ethereum, you can create decentralized apps or dApps.

This is where things get really interesting.

Dapps can give you a whole new gambling experience. Imagine a casino that runs on the blockchain, and that's provably fair. That's what Dapps can




So, you are thinking about switchjing to ETH because transaction speed is higher and there's provably fair system? The same system works with bitcoin, so you'd choose ETH casinos only because your payment gets there a few minutes faster?

Also, BTC fees are 1.3 USD on average, but they sometimes skyrocket to... 3USD. ETH fees on the other hand can jump to 10USD or more.

THe article is pretty bad at persuading people to use ETH casinos.

He's a good man after all if he wants to pay back the money he gambled away.

HO many of you would in all honesty give back so much money if you got it by mistake. It's easy to say it now and criticize the guy because you are not in his shoes. We all criticize people who made mistakes, but once in a while we do the same thing and become the victims of hate

Shill thread

Anyway, I'll answer the question. Like it was already mentioned, OP is wrong about excitement being the driving factor here. He's right about the popularity of cryptocurrencies in the gambling market. This is becoming a huge industry, but manly due to anonymity, the ability to circumvent local laws. Also, people can earn crypto outside of their job and it never goes through their bank account which for many people is a big deal. The spouse doesn't know that you're gambling, the tax office or your employer don't know either. If you win money it's yours to keep.

Nobody will tell you that because many things depend on people's decisions. If the US government continues to destroy the stock market, we will have a crash and a recession.
Does it mean bitcoin will crash? Again, we don't  know because bitcoin is already below 200 WMA and it already was below the level of miner capitulation. It doesn't have much crashing space left at over -70% from the top.

My opinion is that if stocks keep crashing bitcoin will be crashing less because it already did a hard correction. It became more oversold than it ever was. People were anticipating the worst and whoever was considering selling with a loss did it 2 weeks ago. Eventually people will start to move their money from other assets into cheap bitcoin that at 20k USD has a much greater potential to go up than most stocks.

A platform that claims to be able to do something for you and make you money is always a scam of some kind. We had so much of this. Like there were cloud mining platforms, bitcoin multipliers, sites that were hacking blockchain and giving you some of the coins from every transaction sent by other people... Nowadays there are youtube giveaways where Vitalik or Elon are giving you free coins, you just have to send them some of your coins and you'll get more back. Let's not forget about those sites that mine for you or generate passive income, but you have to buy upgrades for the site to do it faster.

If it was possible to keep trading with consistent success, all those traders would be sitting on their asses and trading 24/7 instead of trying to sell you their tips, portfolios and self-improvement courses.

There were campaigns that at some point were paying ridiculously high rates when compared to when they started.
For instance, Yolodice. In January and February of 2021, the campaign was paying 800 USD a month if we count the average price in those months at 35k USD, but that was after they lowered the rates.
Until the end of December 2020 they were paying 0.014 BTC a week @20k USD per coin, which was 280 a week (1120 USD a month!).
According to the OP the pay rates at the time were between $100 and $360 a month.

Here's a spreadsheet if someone wants to verify.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AaoYn8hm0KV7NQm_f4UNJylN4lxa65rdNpDquhxWz4w/edit#gid=1488910859

And I saw both a bankrupt banker and a bankrupt casino. In case of a bank, maybe you've heard about the famous Lehman Brothers?

There's also many casinos that were advertising on this forum and became scams because it was a faster way of making money than simply being honest to your customers.
There are even some shady businesses in here now like 1xbit.


It's the same with investments. People are up 4x on their Bitcoin bit never take any profit until it goes down and they lose money. I'm also guilty of that. The more you want to win the more you lose.

I feel like this question is impossible to answer like many similar ones. For instance, can you trust a former convict, can you trust a drug addict, can you trust a former thief, can you trust your former girlfriend who cheated on you...?
Some will still be stealing and cheating, some will not. A thief who stole once doesn't have to be a thief all his life. People change. A gambler can still be a good worker, or he can be stealing from his boss, you can never know for sure.

Incredible. I rarely see people willing to sell their identity for a promise of safety.


+1. That's the only way to go in my opinion. Bonuses are not much of a price to pay for anonymity. People who think otherwise don't know the value of their private data.
I'd of course choose to sacrifice almost anything. All bonuses, referrals, everything. I'd even prefer higher fees with anonymity than lower without it. It's the same with exchanges and everything else for me.