It's all about preserving the effectiveness of the health system by drawing out the infection rate rather than drowning it mainly. But the concept of 'herd immunity' that they're all talking about might turn out to be total rubbish and we'll all melt.

Nothing was done in the earliest stages at all and now they've given up attempting to test and only testing hospital arrivals. A lot of people are calling it a gamble and it does sound like it. I will not be taking any chances.

I do think explicitly isolating oldies is very sensible and I don't get why that hasn't been done elsewhere but it should've been done sooner.

Anyway, anyone who has the option to take control of their own exposure should've been doing it the moment this all became a problem. No one should be waiting to be told.

As for America, look who's in charge. Look at the health system they'll need to shake up and unify. A lot of Americans won't seek treatment until it's too late because they've spent their whole lives avoiding doctors because of the expense or lack of sick pay even if they remove those barriers and it looks like they will.

And then we might end up with a two tier world where Asia went for containment and the West let everyone become zombies so Asia won't let anyone in until there's a vaccine. This will be written about for centuries to come.

He is of course a Silly Billy but he is very sensibly totally deferring to the experts in this particular case. Whether they're right is a different and rather urgent matter. Total shutdowns can't be sustained and maybe the ones that are happening now are happening too early. Who knows? But no one should be waiting for any government's permission to do sensible things to protect themselves.

The US is the place to worry about most. Maybe some actual national unity will come out of that. Hope it does.

I think we've just accepted that we are todally awesome. Deal with it.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

Unless they're already interested then no. The chances are high it'll be forgotten or discarded or they'll probably think you're using the wedding as an excuse to brainwash them or something. They might interpret it as something along the lines of giving them Hare Krishna robes. Just go for something conventional.

Roger Ver gave a pal of his 500 BTC as a wedding present. Let's hope they paid attention.

Ach. We'll see what happens. I expected nothing of this year anyway and it's certainly over delivered so far. I'll start to wonder by the end of next year if nothing positive has occurred by that point.

I find it kind of strange how rarely Bitmex is mentioned here and in many other places as any type of factor. It's a market monster in the way Bitfinex was in the past even if it isn't 'real' bitcoins.

There's no getting away from paper. It would be nice if it were run by competent and compliant people rather than folks who openly trade against their customers.

An interesting thread here on a theory about Bitmex's role in this - https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status/1238818943147507713

He reckons Bitmex basically stopped working properly for quite a period of time and the market bounced as soon as they halted trading on there.



Then they're twats. We all know what a stirrer that joint is. There's never been a day since its inception that they didn't preach doom.

I think that's one of the prime reasons. Ownership has gone from manifesto-toting whack jobs to city slickers. As the demographic of ownership advances into traditional groups traditional reactions to things elsewhere will increase.

Anyone who expected it to do well in a full on recession is a bit of a weirdo if you ask me. There might be potential during brief blips or shocks in normal markets that expose their frilliness, this sure as shit isn't that right now.

Agreed. The only regulation they mention is being registered as a money services business with fincen and the Canadian equivalent and Kraken futures are registered with the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. That surely isn't enough but they seem to carry on rather gaily anyway.

It's happening right now. Almost everyone here has little to fear from the disease. It's the hysteria and economic paralysis that they're going to feel and it's already rolling. I know of people in tourism who block book their whole year around now. They've already laid their staff off as there are no bookings for this year.

Hopefully in a month or two people will realise the world isn't ending. All the same there will be a large hit that'll take quite some time to digest.

In 2-3 months imagine how many businesses will have gone bust and how many people will be unemployed. Entire industries will basically stop operating and I doubt there are many that can afford to shut down, wait it out and then fire up again as if nothing has happened. That aspect has only just begun.

Before that there'll be a lot of selling pressure from people who need to get through this period of time. Selling pressure now and no income to buy in future adds up to a pretty gross looking few months.

For that to happen we need to get beyond the boom/bust phase to something that at least hums reasonably along all the time. I guess that requires actual usage to underpin that rather than pure betting. And things have been quiet for a long, long time. That doesn't help the robustness when it suddenly explodes into life, or rather death in this case.

Odd how few have picked up on Bitmex as a factor. That will have driven a ton more action and madness than had it been a less skewed market. I noticed in trading circles the most attention was paid to Bitmex, way more than any exchange. We can be certain that they will never, ever introduce a 'circuit breaker' like real markets and proper Bitcoin futures. Too much money to be made cleaning out their customers.

An interesting move and I'm surprised it hasn't occurred to other exchanges. It's a natural extension.

Since Kraken seems a little casual about its regulation compared to other operations I wonder whether this will bring more heat on them. Does it require more explicit regulation if it's pure fiat?

We've seen some proper OGs go a bit batty with this dump. I guess it shat on a lot of expectations that were building up over a lengthy period of time. Every single day is writing fresh history. People drawing on what has already occurred might be in for a rude shock.

I'm looking to the end of 2021 before deciding what to do and where it might head. What's going on at present is (very loud) noise.

Unfortunately most people only realise what they're made of during the test they're put through rather than considering potential outcomes beforehand and that's fair enough, there's no way of knowing.

It's helpful to  look to others who have lived the same experience previously. I was underwater for over three years during a period when it looked like death was a genuine possibility. After that lord knows what in paper profits has vapourised.

It is what it is and I'm way past getting rattled now. I choose to continue to have faith in the concept even when it's clear many people who own it don't. I'll still be here when they're gone or evolved.

I wonder whether they're going to use that for a concentrated cull. If they decide they need some actual, er, quality then it's going to be a lengthy process and little will be left by the end. They should PM us lot. I'll do it for 0.1 per post which is the price of my dignity.

I've usually regarded it as a speculative instrument. It has the potential to be much, much more but that takes time, education and circumstance. Sometimes it fulfils the other things people are projecting onto it, other times it shits all over it.

It's still outrageously young compared to anything else out there. There'll be many stages before the world has decided what it wants it to be.

From looking at all the comments out there it should be pretty clear what most current owners REALLY think. More than anything they want more dollars.

So does this contest have an Act Of God clause that subtracts 50% from everyone's prediction for events like this? It certainly should do. And I think there should be a special clause just for Extinction Level Events like asteroids that takes 80% off.

Knowing you've won as a 2000ft wall of Atlantic ocean roars towards you could offer some comfort before you're gone.

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.