|
Gox stable and Bitstamp rising, it looks like arbitrage is working
▲ mtgoxUSD 120.7000 108.097 +11.659% 595952
▲ bitstampUSD 109.6100 98.044 +11.797% 305108
|
|
|
|
|
For the record: I requested today a SEPA withdrawal to try to do some arbitrage. It went from "pending" to "confirmed" in a few minutes. Now let's see how long it takes for it to go "processing", which should mean they sent the money.
I will report back.
EDIT: arbitrage seems working. Gox going down and Bitstamp up. Spread decreasing fast.
|
|
|
|
RationalSpeculator: In almost 4,000 posts I've made plenty of good and back calls, serious analysis and just trolling, I'm just pointing out that as a "track record" you chose quite poor and ambiguous examples. About the guy wondering what to do on April 8th with BTC at $175: I would give the same advice today. If you care about your FIAT profits, sell (especially if the price just went to $175 from $14); if you are into BTC precisely as a hedge against fiat and the current financial system, just HOLD and forget about the exchange rate. Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact, and obviously the quote you just posted can read very differently in a few years from now. Frankly, I've made much worst calls about specific trades in concrete timeframes. Plus, that same day (April 8th) I posted that Bitcoin was in the middle of a speculative bubble that needed to burst ASAP, and we all know how that plaid out. Being beginning of April a time in which I posted +30 times per day (trolly and spammy as you say), probably you will find good, bad and ambiguous calls made during the same day  Finally, you might be right that I'm correct only 33% of the times. I guess the point is to lose the minimum when you get it wrong, and earn the max. when you get it right. I definitely didn't achieve to double my BTC stash during these months of post-crash volatility - as I guess a decent trader would have done - but nevertheless I'm reasonably up, thus my calls are good enough for me. I do not pretend them to be good for anyone else, as I'm no financial advisor. |
|
|
|
You are talking about the wrong asset.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Stocks and precious metals are.
Where did the blue go? |
|
|
|
Relax. It's just the weekend dip.
Is that still a thing? Yes, look at the last month. But it's happening on thursday because people want to dump before it's coming on friday. Well, then its time to remember (again) the amazing "Hitler got screwed by Bitcoin weekend dip and is reminiscing about his Bitcoin mining career." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4axmD2YvPnAEvery time I see it I crap my pants in laughter. |
|
|
|
arbitrage can make people to change their mind and cause crash thats why i think its stupid and selfish which in the long run will hurt everybody. Arbitrage is stupid and selfish? Arbitrage is good money, how is that stupid? You really think that is better to have +20% spreads between exchanges? That's beyond retarded. |
|
|
|
|
Sorry if this was addressed, but OP's arguments are "noob arguments" (no offense intended), in the sense that he probably was not a miner/bitcoiner in 2011 and 2012, and didn't see the evolution and cycles of mining, which are pretty much repeating themselves.
Mining has always been (and always will be) an only marginally profitable business. Market adjust itself, and only the most efficient miners do a marginal profit. During a) exponential rise in price (as in 2011 or 2013) and b) a change to a new, very efficient technology there are small windows of time in which mining is wildly profitable, triggering a "mining gold rush", but these windows close extremely fast. It happened in 2011 (GPU introduction lead to exponential network rise until the hashrate reached plateau and started to decline) and it will happen now. The "wildly profitable" window of 2013 was really wild because a third factor was added to the equation, which is the extremely limited supply of ASIC during the first semester of 2013. The few lucky ASIC owners made a killing for a few months, and the newcomers have been blinded by the impossible returns of the lucky few, and rushed to pre-order units like theres no tomorrow.
At the end of the day, nothing will change much - some miners will mine at a loss for the added benefit of receiving "clean, fresh-minted" coins, some others will gradually shut their miners off (or upgrade), and some others will keep mining at a marginal profit thanks to very competitive fixed and variable costs.
IMO ASIC will be the endgame for the amateur miner looking for profits. CPU or GPU are commodity items, custom made ASICs are not - they are custom-made "money printing machines", and normally the ones having the means and the funds to produce their own "money printing machines" have no incentive in selling those machines for less money than they will print in their lifetime. Making a long story short, ASIC manufacturers currently have two ways to maximize their profit:
a) they use customer's money to do projects much bigger than their own funds would allow, they risk nothing, but in exchange they have to promise a good return to customers
b) they use and risk their own money to design their own chip, cover NRE costs and then they just deploy themselves as many chips as possible, cutting out of the equation the consumers.
In my opinion we are in phase a), and soon enough we will see phase b), which basically means that mining is getting "pro", and amateurs will be gradually cut out. This is something we have seen in the past in many "industries" - a blatant example is gold extraction. A similar process is in action here. Customers will buy bonds, contracts and such, but most of the hash rate will coming from mining operations handled by companies, not from individuals hashing in their basement.
The long-term problem would be to have "too big" pro-miners, whose fall could endanger Bitcoin, taking the network to a halt. But I wouldn't be to worried about this problem, market should be efficient and regulate itself in order for this not to happen.
|
|
|
|
Indicators scream "down" ATM, this should be definitely a spot to be in fiat.
Nevertheless, this is Bitcoin - are the whales that have been regularly buying between BTC1,000 and BTC2,000 the last few days finished their buying? Are they waiting for the ask side to build and the spot price to go down, as its happening right now, before the next buys?
Really, trading in this market ATM is pure gambling.
Indicators have pointed to down (on the daily chart) for a few days now. But, with the spread between the 2 big exchanges and no money being able to be taken out of GOX, how reliable are the indicators? We are seeing something new here imo. The weekly chart is still looking bullish. I agree in that it is a gamble. But, it seems like what you say has been true; The whale(s) come along and buy every 3 days or so to support the price. If I went by the indicators the last two times (I remember this) I would have missed one or both up moves. So yes, a gamble. Buy and hold (and hope)? Or wait in fiat and hope? Hmmmm... Well, I wouldn't be so sure about "no money out of Gox". In fact, they just changed the "up to three weeks" on the withdrawal page for SEPA to "one week", and many reports of successful SEPA withdrawals are being reported. And the spread diminishing should be arbitragers at work. |
|
|
|
Waking up to see this ...another completely failed rally attempt... I think there might be some panic today
60's on their way soon ... have to say, I didn't think it would happen so quickly
What do you think Rampion and IAS ?
Well, I had a bid at $71ish that wasn't filled for a few cents (unfortunately, the bounce from $72 was very profitable for those who caught it), and I pulled it. Didn't catch it the first time, I won't be trying to catch a falling knife for the second time in the $70s for sure. I may play a bounce in the $60s, but with a smallish position. Its risky.I will for sure play the bounce from the $50ish with significant money, that its going to be nice action indeed. I still see too much denial for the very bottom to be close, but it's also true that these forums are über-bullish by nature (its bitcointalk.org), so I don't really know how good indicator they are. This was a bad call. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now in the $70's Rampion thinks price will go down even more to $50's. He says he does not buy at current price around $70 and might buy a little in $60's. Price dropped to only $65 that day July 5th and strongly recovered the days and weeks after to $111 by July 31st. I was wrong about the price going to the '50s in that moment, but how was buying some coins in the '60s to play the bounce (to $110, as you pointed out) a bad call? It made me money. I'm considering selling all of mine at the market price of $175, and waiting to see what happens next. Its so hard to decide lol. What if it hits $200? etc.
You are in BTC because of fiat profits? SELL SELL SELL You are in BTC because of freedom? HOLD HOLD HOLD Every BTC sold goes from weak hands to stronger hands. Just do it! This was a bad call. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold. 2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165. It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later. This is lame. I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong), and you nitpick a trolly post I wrote? Anyhow I stand correct in what I told the guy - if you are in BTC because of fiat profits, then SELL (that was a very good moment to sell for FIAT profits, right?). If you are in BTC because of something deeper (monetary freedom) - then HOLD and fuck the exchange rate. Anyhow, this is a fun (and useful) initiative - but me, Blitz, Cypherdoc, Odalv, etc. have made dozens (if not hundreds) of calls and here you are cherry-picking a lot, selecting very few, which makes this thread incomplete and biased. I think it would be cool if you'd do an exhaustive recount of all the calls - I guess its almost an impossible job for the past (tens of k's of posts to be read, etc.) but maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on. |
|
|
|
|
Only port 80? So no https, no FTP, no email... WTF? He was joking I guess.
|
|
|
|
|
Nice BTC940.25 miniwall at $120.42792
|
|
|
|
|
Indicators scream "down" ATM, this should be definitely a spot to be in fiat.
Nevertheless, this is Bitcoin - are the whales that have been regularly buying between BTC1,000 and BTC2,000 the last few days finished their buying? Are they waiting for the ask side to build and the spot price to go down, as its happening right now, before the next buys?
Really, trading in this market ATM is pure gambling.
|
|
|
|
Right now I'm not able to withdrawal my Bitcoin balance from mtgox - it says "Invalid bitcoin address, please confirm your input" - but I am 100% certian it is a valid Bitcoin address.
Yep, it happened a couple of days ago to me too. I contacted chat support, they told me to try again in a couple of hours, I tried and it worked. Same thing happened to me - I contacted support, they asked me for a screenshot, then they told me to try again later. It worked later. The day after they kindly contacted me to ask me if the issue was solved. MtGox is quite bipolar, for some issues they are über-irritating with that outrageous copy&paste templates, for some other issues they are extremely fast, polite and efficient. Honestly, I hope they solve their problems with regulators, banks and whatnot. Amateurish or not, at least Gox is an honest business - we cannot say that of at least 50% of the other exchanges that have been created since 2011, most of them closed and ran with customer's money at some point. |
|
|
|
Very interesting, thanks for the analysis klao. I guess we don't know whether these whales were buying in order to sell on other exchanges (where fiat withdrawals are going through), or buying in order to buy, do we?
No, we most certainly don't. But if I were to buy bitcoins for 2 million USD just to invest, I probably wouldn't deposit to the exchange where the price is the highest... Actually, if you executed $2m worth of buys, you would have paid more on bitstamp than on mtgox. Bitstamp's liquidity sucks, relatively speaking. So I can see why they went to gox. If someone wanted to execute $2M worth of buys you wouldn't do it on BitStamp or Mt.Gox. That size of order moves the market 1-3%. In reality, neither exchange has enough liquidity. You would want to place a dark order on Tradehill or a block purchase with an individual privately. Nonsense. You would have an average slippage of 3% (but you would move the market MORE than 3%) on Bitstamp with just a single market order of 500 BTC. A $2M buy on a BTC exchange moves the market WAY MORE than 3%. Just check the depth: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD_depth.htmlhttp://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.htmlYou couldn't execute $2M worth of buys on Bitstamp because there is no depth - you could do it on Gox, but "little by little", you need to be insane to do a $2M market order in such a tiny market as per BTC. |
|
|
|
No entiendo, si yo tengo mi monedero en mi Mac, como hace un hacker para robar los BT ? Incluso si apago la computadora?  Yo tampoco entiendo nada. Los BTC no estaban en su monedoro en su Mac, estaban en el monedero de MtGox - y se los han robado de ahí. Como dijo LuisCar, esto es dinero: tanto a) un password único, largo y aleatorio como b) doble autentificación son requisitos OBLIGATORIOS. Entonces por que no dejar los BT directamente en su PC o MAC cada uno? Pues los tendría en MtGox porque estaría haciendo "trading", y es que para utilizar determinados servicios tienes que confiar algunos de tus bitcoins a un tercero (en este caso, a MtGox), pero lo que no puedes dejar de hacer es utilizar las herramientas de seguridad que te ofrecen, porque aquí hablamos de dinero contante y sonante y de transferencias irreversibles. Confiarse y utilizar un servicio como MtGox, Bitstamp o Blockchain.info como si fuera el webmail es simplemente estúpido. |
|
|
|
What exactly is it that you don't like? They probably took in well over $10m so far in orders - even they spent $100K on advertising, that couldn't terribly affect the customer price per unit - probably less than $20/unit. I don't like too much seeing pre-order based companies spending big amounts of their customer's money (which have not received any device yet) to suck in more pre-order customers. It's not illegal, its not unethical unless there are huge delays, as per BFL, but honestly I don't like it. Plus, +$1,500 for a weekly slot on this forum is simply retarded. |
|
|
|
31 Bitcoin I'll never see.
That was retarded. Hope you have learnt a lesson. |
|
|
|
|
Did Bitvanity ask you to enter your administrator password?
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
