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181  Economy / Economics / Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys. on: November 19, 2017, 03:15:00 PM
I feel I will tell you my opinion about the current Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin has a solid base of believers that trust the system, are optimistics and hold during huge bear markets. It has helped bring stability to the network and bottoms to the market.

Also, Bitcoin is useful in a lot of cases. It's an alternative way of storing value, it's much more decentralized than the banking system, we can securite it away from the banking system and move it across the globe and the amount in circulation is not decided by a government entity.

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

The PR campaign has been good, smart people have build around Bitcoin and crypto, the system and the community have grow without any catastrophic events and it proved the technical robustness of Bitcoin.

The adoption increased but it is not even close to be where it should be to be widely adopted and have less price volatility so a valuation of 100 billions of $ or more is questionable, it's not much use as a currency either and it's a store of value only if you accept the very high volatility.
It's too thin of an analysis to just state that the volatility is not a problem because it will not be there when Bitcoin is widely adopted. While the volatility could decrease, it will likely still be high even at much higher rate of usage and at a higher valuation until the usage is a high percentage of the total amount of currency in use. Even at a 1000 or 5000 billions of $ of valuation, catastrophic events or a decrease in confidence will send the price coming down rapidly.

All the speculators are jumping in, hedge funds are buying, the optimism is extremely high and keeps getting higher as the price goes up. The correlation between btc google search and btc price is known as being 1. Most people are buying to make a profit and sell Bitcoin to get more fiat from another buyer.
The optimism is already included in the price so a correction seems likely short term because when the optimism goes down so will the price. Depending on how low it goes, how long it stays low and how high it rebounds, it will impact the optimism around Bitcoin then problems such as the relatively high transaction fees or BCH being an alternative will not be disregarded anymore.
The price is high because many persons have it and want the price to go up and many more have been added to the pool, the due diligence analysis that are done on the market and the current state of affairs are very low.
We hear people not buying gold because bitcoin has been going up while gold has been stable, it's indeed one of the reason a lot of people have choose bitcoin over gold but when gold price goes up, some bitcoin wealth should move to gold and the gold momentum will be great for gold.

How low can we go ? It could certainly go down close to 1000$ since mining will still remain profitable for some.


When the US and European economies will come crashing down, the FED will create a lot of $ to save the system, it may or may not succeed in saving the system and avoid the biggest violences but it will not save the Dollar as the world currency. When there is war and violence, the State diminishes liberties and jack up taxes and when they will have a chance they may create a Fedcoin invoking the war on drug and crime and the need for more stability and transparency. It will bad for privacy and individual liberties so other crypto will be useful, including Bitcoin, justifying a 2017 USD valuation in the tens of billions.

The idea that Bitcoin can be a store of value for high net worth individuals and that they will have Bitcoin in their allocation portfolio is more plausible than Bitcoin becoming a currency anytime soon, it could bring the price even much higher. It's less a problem to have your bitcoins lose 20% if it's 1% of a multi millions $ portfolio.
Anyway, all the value, time and effort that goes in bitcoins and crypto will create great returns in terms of developing the use of blockchain and using crypto such as the value brought to internet companies during the dotcom bubble were not all lost, some great companies emerged.
182  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How do you deal with loss? on: November 07, 2017, 10:47:23 PM
Another way to avoid loss is to set a stop loss and this way you wouldn't have to worry too much.

Yes if there is enough liquidity during the dip. A stop loss can makes you lose the bull run too if it dips before it goes up.

You can avoid the worst feeling of loss by never betting so much that you would feel horrible if you loose. But you need to pick a few markets that you know in order to have enough informations to possibly have an edge and you need to bet enough so you can make a substantial amount of money if you happen to pick winners.
183  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How do you deal with loss? on: October 15, 2017, 09:32:49 PM
You sleep, you exercise and you plan on getting back 25% of what you lost with a reasonable time then it's bearable.
184  Economy / Invites & Accounts / Re: Buying or selling a poker account on: October 04, 2017, 12:56:50 PM
no poker player here ?
185  Economy / Invites & Accounts / Buying or selling a poker account on: September 09, 2017, 02:32:50 PM
Hi, is it allowed by seals with clubs and betcoin to buy and sell an account ?

Also how much do you think a 16000 betcoin status points big loosing account should sell ? that's silver II.

Silver II   Betback   Lossback   Rakeback
Casino Slots   0%   1.65%   -
Casino Other   0%   1.65%   -
Sports   0.16%   1%   -
Dice   0.05%   0.5%   -
Poker   -   -   23.3%

Does someone has a betcoin gold account to sell ?
186  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Mayweather Vs McGregor: Info and prediction thread on: August 26, 2017, 04:17:51 PM
Mayweather has only been retired for 2 years and is 40 years old, the fact that he has been saying that beating Mcgregor will be very hard shows he is very confident that he will win and wanted to increase the interest on the fight since he directly benefit from it through his share of the PPV and tickets sells.

If Mayweather wins and it's financially a huge result, they can do a rematch in the octagon, if he happens to loose it could be a boxe rematch then if mayweather wins the rematch an octagon third match.

I still bet a little bit on Mcgregor ;-)
187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2017, 07:49:29 PM
Quelle est la probabilité que le prix descende sous les 3000 USD au moins une fois dans les 6 prochains mois ?

Je dirais >70%.
188  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is Becoming a Global Currency on: August 12, 2017, 04:23:23 PM
I think it is still hasty to say that bitcoin is becoming a global currency. We can see that in many countries there are people transacting bitcoins, but if we see well, those are only some of the the countries that exist worldwide. Even in those countries, the rate of people that has some knowledge about bitcoin may not  reach 50% except for some coutries I guess. But bitcoin has the potential to become Global and I hope it does !

Bitcoin successfully became global and is among other things a financial asset bought for profit.
189  Economy / Economics / Re: War on cash in the EU : very bullish for BTC on: July 30, 2017, 10:46:59 PM
The EU is trying to limit the cash payments to control the EU citizens and tax more easily and broadly. The pretext for the limits will be to fight crime.

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/28/europe-limits-on-cash-transactions-war-on-cash/

BTC could become the new cash as cash is slowly banned.

This is pretty old news (more than 6 months). Governments across the world are conducting a war on cash.
This is bad for anybody who wants privacy in his financial transactions, although he might be a perfectly law abiding citizen who pays his taxes.

Germans will fight the war the cash since they use a lot of cash and are attached to the privacy benefits of using cash.

Wanted to point out that cash can be use efficiently to buy anonymously and BTC use should grow as cash use goes down. On one hand bans and restrictions on cash are bullish for BTC, on the other hand they are a bearish sign for freedom and BTC could be next to be attacked.
190  Economy / Economics / War on cash in the EU : very bullish for BTC on: July 28, 2017, 07:54:40 PM
The EU is trying to limit the cash payments to control the EU citizens and tax more easily and broadly. The pretext for the limits will be to fight crime.

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/28/europe-limits-on-cash-transactions-war-on-cash/

BTC could become the new cash as cash is slowly banned.
191  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How I made 1 BTC in one night from a gambling website on: June 27, 2017, 10:16:15 AM
its amazing brother you just earned 1 btc from 1 night , Then what about upcoming nights your earning will be same or changed

can i ask the website name from which you earned 1 btc from 1 night ,

It was mostly one whale that kept playing and winning actually then he stopped playing, I was hoping it will happen again last night :-)
192  Economy / Gambling discussion / How I made 1 BTC in one night from a gambling website on: June 26, 2017, 10:09:20 PM
Bitcoin's price was up and I felt like I missed the train, I had been involved in Bitcoin for a while but I had to exit my positions to get some liquidity. It was very frustrating.

It all started with a thread I started on Bitcointalk, right here in the gambling section. I suggested the readers to play on the gambling site in my signature and stated that KARMA would retribute those willing to play. A GOLDEN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY HAD OPEN. A few curious readers tested by depositing 0.1 and came back to the thread saying they had win big.

It escalated from here and dozens of bitcoin gamblers started playing through my affiliate link. And some kept winning ! And they kept coming back to the thread saying they won. When i woke up I saw I had 1.031 BTC in my affiliate account, it was too sweet. I transferred it to a safe wallet and I was back in Bitcoin, thanks to KARMA and the community.

It could become true, strangers things have happen, luck doesn't only happen to others :-)
193  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ethereum is about to take over Bitcoin on: June 23, 2017, 11:22:29 AM
Still, many years to go but now Bitcoin is always no 1. Ethereum wants to secure its position but anyhow managed to reach more than 400$. Slowly ETH is moving upwards but to beat Bitcoin it will take a lot of time.

Some sure made some profit on Etherum, I wish I had low buying orders for when the fast crash happened : http://uk.businessinsider.com/ethereum-price-flash-crash-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

If you have a large amount of cryptocurrency, whatever than means for you and very little other assets, it only makes sense to cash out for what you are in for and play "with the house money". Actually, it probably makes sense to cash out to break-even when you did x3 or more and keep the profits runnings, if you have enough cryto left to still benefit of the upcoming upward swings  Wink
194  Economy / Securities / shares of Bitstamp to buy / cash raising / ICO's on: June 07, 2017, 02:00:42 PM
1/Bitstamp offered 2% to buy on https://bnktothefuture.com, did any of you guys bought some shares ? If so, can you sell them back and is there anywhere else than here where someone could find sellers of bitstamp shares ?

2/I guess there is no bitcoin companies secondary market.

3/https://bnktothefuture.com has a competition ?

4/Where to find ICO's ?
195  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is Becoming a Global Currency on: May 30, 2017, 09:43:13 AM
Bitcoin's price movements are big, it is a very speculative asset. Bitcoin needs to have the price fluctuations not affecting trades, if you sell and the result is a big enough portion of your net worth, you usually don't want to risk losing part of it in a short amount of time.
196  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is Becoming a Global Currency on: May 07, 2017, 02:30:27 PM
bitcoin has already been a global currency since it was first created. Satoshi waant people to use this coin as a primary school on the global and this coin is a symbol of the crypto currency revolution
Perhaps still not as much globally as you think. Because the fact is that only a certain number of people use crypto currency and there is no talk of mass use of speech.

Where to find relevant numbers of usage ? It is possible to know the order of magnitude of how many people own bictoins but it is important to know how many use bitcoins per day and per month : monthly active user and daily active usage.
197  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2014-09-12] Tim Draper: Bitcoin’s Price Still Headed to $10k on: April 29, 2017, 02:30:26 PM
Draper is a uber-rich SV VC for whom $18mn is pocket change, just some optionality that's all
He is talking his portfolio, seriously doubt he has a deep view of the btc protocol, just another punter albeit in size

It would be very interesting to know if he paid more or less than the market price of the time, he probably didn't pay much more so he has accumulated a lot of virtual gains lately.

10 000$ in 2018 is still possible, as the taxes go down and the us deficit goes up, the us treasury will create more bonds and the fed will buy more of them which will create inflation even with much higher interest rates than the current's so the price of everything will go up and the price of inflation protected assets such as Bitcoin will go up even more.

When will the $ crash ? 2018, 2019, 2020, it is hard to say but it should not be in more than 5 or 6 years. Prepare guys, buy some bitcoins, some gold and some foreign assets.
198  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 24, 2017, 07:14:49 PM
IMO, as long as this scaling war doesn't decimate things, it's highly probable that we see a double or even triple sized market cap within the next 5 years.

given the last five years, that seems pretty reasonable, which feels weird to write.

Indeed.

If no other honest digital currency takes the lead, bitcoin will likely appreciate in price. The FED will likely grow its balance sheet and create many more $ so bitcoin will increase at least 10 fold increase in nominal terms. Gold is a also good hedge against inflation, i don't recommend buying only bitcoins.
199  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 13, 2017, 10:35:46 PM
If the price move continues in the forward direction with stability even a single satoshi gets a good value. This makes most of the users depending upon bitcoin for their living at least rich if not possible to make them elite.

Or 500 000$ in 2030 ?

http://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-could-be-500000-by-2030-first-snapchat-investor-says-2017-3-1001908107
200  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is Becoming a Global Currency on: April 06, 2017, 04:20:05 PM
For the first time, when I look at the offers on LocalBitcoins.com, there are a half-dozen currencies ahead of the US dollar, offering a higher price for Bitcoin than US dollar users.

Euros, South African Rands, New Zealand Dollars, Hong Kong Dollars, Polish Zloty, Malaysian Ringgits.

It is no longer just the US, EU or even China driving adoption.  There is a market for Bitcoins in major countries all over the world.
This is a good sign that we see bitcoin is developing and being accept by almost all country in the world.it has a big chance to be a global currency now in this state if almost all country will adopt and use it Smiley
Well different nationalities uses bitcoin but the volume of users is not that big, bitcoin is a global currency in the sense that it has
given us a chance to transact fast regardless on what part of county you belong. We are all fair here since it's decentralized and we can fully achieve freedom as well.
I agree. The numbers of the bitcoin users are still just a few and it doesn't help that much in the price of bitcoin since the only big investors are still just a small part of the community. If we just continue spreading bitcoin then it will be easily increase the volume of the bitcoin users which can help for the market of bitcoin to grow up and be profitable for us. The features of bitcoin can easily attract investors or users because it is still fast and cheaper than other payment system.

I wonder

-How many bitcoins unique owners of 0.1 or more ?
-How many unique users transacted in bitcoins in the last 12 months ? How many MAU ?

https://blockchain.info/stats give some informations but not in the sense of MAU and yearly active users.
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