For now, Argentina looks like the favorites to win the world cup. So far they have conceded only 3 goals (1 against Bosnia, and 2 against Nigeria). All of their players are fit, and in fine form. Brazil will struggle after the omission of Neymar. I don't know about Argentina winning the world cup. I'm hoping Germany will be able to succeed in their match with Brazil (it will be devastating if they do not). Like said though, Germany has been playing against many more complex and difficult teams than Argentina. If Germany can beat France, they should be able to beat Argentina, which is the primary reason why I am thinking Germany may have it this year. Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #IYRstzdROYN21EHfGermany played well but think Brazil will win against them even without Neymar : they are at home, rested, it is their climat and they will perform a good team work to go in finals Betting on Argentina to win against the Netherlands and we will have a all South American final  |
|
|
|
tee-rex : savings are good, consuming on credit is bad
What about savings versus direct consumption? Which one is better? You won't get away with this question so easily.  Correct but you cannot have a healthy economy with increasing salaries (in real terms!) and increasing standard of living if you consume on credit but your industry is stable or decreasing, your taxes are going up, your trade&public deficit are going up, your unfunded liabilities is going up, the number of employed people compared to the total of the population is going down and the quality of the jobs is going way down (look at the last jobs reports : mostly part time jobs and full time jobs are destroyed at an alarming rate!) Prices going down were the only good thing in the Great D, do you think prices going up would have been better for people having very limited ressources?
People have less money in depression times so it is good that prices are lower not higher
Sure it's beneficial for consumers for prices to be lower when they go to the store and buy things, but the lower prices don't make up for the lack of consumption due to the hard economic times. Aggregate consumption falls, even though prices are lower. China will fair well after the USD collapsed and the dust has settled
I guess it depends on how far in the future you look. They would almost certainly recover better and faster than the US, but a USD collapse would greatly hurt their economy. It would destroy a lot of US demand for their exports, and because of our close economic ties with Europe, the European financial system would also probably collapse, which would destroy their demand for Chinese exports as well. It's impossible to predict how bad it could get, but I could see a USD collapse leading to a global depression. It is reasonable to make those assumptions; the collapse of the USD will have huge negative consequences for many but China will be able consume what they produce, the shifting will not be overnight but it will happen eventually; many other asian countries are on the right track and some European countries are strong as well It is stupid to say the world economy cannot live without the USD, the world economy will be better off without the price to pay to have the USD as a world reserve currency and world payment currency |
|
|
|
There is corelation between education and earnings, but mainly its how you do in business
Earnings are higher for educated people but if you factor in the fact that educated people are smarter, more connected before going into college, hungrier for success and the cost of college do you really earn more money because you went to college? |
|
|
|
Globally the US didn't have deflation Government computed inflation (therefore minimised) : 2008 3.8% 2009 -0.4% 2010 1.6% If inflation was -0.4% in 2009, how was that not deflation? If you want a better example of how bad deflation can be, look at the first part of the Great Depression. 1929 0.0% 1930 -2.3% 1931 -9.0% 1932 -9.9% 1933 -5.1% after 1933 it turns positive again for a few years And btw, there's still some risk in money market securities. We haven't seen a crisis bad enough to really jeopardize the money markets, but it's possible. It did jeopardize the money markets in 2008 but the government intervenes and guaranteed the funds, they double the bet once again and got lucky, remember? Yes, that's a better way of putting it. Thank you. The US has been printing money at an insane rate the past several years, and it's worked so far, but it can't go on forever. No amount of money printing will be able to save the situation.
YESIf that happens in a disorderly, crisis-like fashion, the whole world is screwed. Disagree here, most if not all countries will suffer at first but it will be great for hard working countries with natural ressources low taxes and regulation and high saving rate I suppose it would be possible for such countries to do ok, but there aren't many countries like that (can you think of some examples?), and they would have to be very isolated from the global economy. Usually countries with strong economic growth and a good industrial base (e.g., China) are exporters. If a significant portion of a country's economy depends on demand for their exports, they get screwed during a global crisis because no one has the money to buy their exports anymore. You say what you think people should do. But I say what actually happens and has happened many times in the past. This may seem counterintuitive and working against logic, but human psychology is not about logic. And it is surely not what you think it should be. Do you buy less when the price goes down? Give me exemples of when YOU buy less when the price goes down! This doesn't have to do with desire. This has to do with capability. There were some good price breaks/sales during the 2008 crisis. I would have loved to have taken advantage of them, but I couldn't because I was unemployed for a couple months at the beginning of 2008. As a result, my family and I didn't have extra money to spend on cheaper products. The whole reason they're cheaper in the first place is that fewer people can afford them. Prices going down were the only good thing in the Great D, do you think prices going up would have been better for people having very limited ressources? People have less money in depression times so it is good that prices are lower not higher China will fair well after the USD collapsed and the dust has settled tee-rex : savings are good, consuming on credit is bad slimus : the bubbles arrived because the FED created them with low interest rates, when Greenspan increased the interest rates it was the solution to get a much needed crisis to eliminate the bad debt but they decided to re-inflate bubbles because they care about the present not the future |
|
|
|
You say what you think people should do. But I say what actually happens and has happened many times in the past. This may seem counterintuitive and working against logic, but human psychology is not about logic. And it is surely not what you think it should be. Do you buy less when the price goes down? Give me exemples of when YOU buy less when the price goes down! You seem to be missing the whole point. It is not a question of buying less, it is a question of saving more! When prices go down, people (me included) don't necessarily buy less, but they do save more shrinking from additional expenditures and consumption that you would expect from the fallen prices. And this has been known since long ago (and written in the textbooks, by the way). And this is enough to cause negative or even devastating effects on the economy. Read your message twice but am still not sure if it's a joke or not : if you buy as much and you save more it is a bad thing? If you think it a joke, I don't think we're going anywhere, sorry. Additional savings due to prices falling reduce producers' profits. This can only be compensated by expanded consumption (provided all other things being equal), but as I said before, increased saving evidently holds back this. And consumption is an investment by itself, but saving postpones it, so that you can't have it both ways, whether you like it or not. Consumption is not an investment and do you prefer a nation of consumers and borrowers with a weak economy or a nation of producers and savers? Saving didn't hold the States of becoming the first economy; going into debt to consume will make them fall of the most wanted first place Prefer the latter; the USA was the latter, enjoyed many liberties, low taxes and small government and that is what made this nation so great; now they have consumers, debts, unfunded liabilities and they produce less and less; it will only be justice when the hard workers and savers of this world like chinese will enjoy wealth, consumption and a strong currency |
|
|
|
You say what you think people should do. But I say what actually happens and has happened many times in the past. This may seem counterintuitive and working against logic, but human psychology is not about logic. And it is surely not what you think it should be. Do you buy less when the price goes down? Give me exemples of when YOU buy less when the price goes down! You seem to be missing the whole point. It is not a question of buying less, it is a question of saving more! When prices go down, people (me included) don't necessarily buy less, but they do save more shrinking from additional expenditures and consumption that you would expect from the fallen prices. And this has been known since long ago (and written in the textbooks, by the way). And this is enough to cause negative or even devastating effects on the economy. Read your message twice but am still not sure if it's a joke or not : if you buy as much and you save more it is a bad thing? Savings are good because they will be reinvested and will create wealth, if you can have the same things plus save more it is a win! |
|
|
|
People that go to college are in average brighter, harder working, more ambitious and for more affluante families and they are meant to make more money (as a group) than people that don't go to college If you factor in the cost of going to college will you really make more money because of the diploma you will get? Support : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbUFBk3477o (few minutes video debating the subject) |
|
|
|
The unemployed will certainly do better with lower prices We agree Globally the US didn't have deflation Government computed inflation (therefore minimised) : 2008 3.8% 2009 -0.4% 2010 1.6% They went more into debt, started QE putting more air in the real estate bubble and in the US bubble : more of the problem to solve the problem like always to avoid a necessary recession, like Bush before; Greenspan had set higher interest rates than Bernanke and that created the housing bubble!! Credit is a double-edged sword. You're absolutely right that it can be bad for the economy, but it does increase growth when used well. Lots of easy credit leads to spectacular busts, but it also leads to spectacular booms. The economy would be a lot more stable without it, but it would grow more slowly. Think it would grow more Credit is good if you get a return higher than the interest rate thus if you invest the money well Consumer prices are very much affected by some markets, especially the commodities.
Yes And btw, there's still some risk in money market securities. We haven't seen a crisis bad enough to really jeopardize the money markets, but it's possible. It did jeopardize the money markets in 2008 but the government intervenes and guaranteed the funds, they double the bet once again and got lucky, remember? The US has been printing money at an insane rate the past several years, and it's worked so far, but it can't go on forever. No amount of money printing will be able to save the situation.
YESIf that happens in a disorderly, crisis-like fashion, the whole world is screwed. Disagree here, most if not all countries will suffer at first but it will be great for hard working countries with natural ressources low taxes and regulation and high saving rate You say what you think people should do. But I say what actually happens and has happened many times in the past. This may seem counterintuitive and working against logic, but human psychology is not about logic. And it is surely not what you think it should be. Do you buy less when the price goes down? Give me exemples of when YOU buy less when the price goes down! Japan experienced deflation in 90s with falling prices. They have been buying like crazy and saving like crazy as well; Japan problems don't come from deflation, you have been too long in school or you are reading Bloomberg Prices went up recently and they consume way less now with abenomics |
|
|
|
its Brazil's world cup to lose.
HAHA nice second post At this point I'm mainly hoping for a Brazil -- Argentina final. I think that would be a wonderful ending since those two south american powerhouses are on opposite sides of the bracket.
My sister in law is brazilian but secretly I would route for Arg and Messi!
Am betting on Argentina, they can really win it : Holland, Costa Rica, Switzerland and Colombia are weaker, France is really an outsider and weaker, Brazil is an accident waiting to happen, Germany is strong but the match against Switzerland would worry the most optimistic german Germany is going to be the world champion this is my prediction.
They may end up in final if they beat Brazil but they will lose |
|
|
|
Anyone placing any BTC bets on the next round of World Cup games? I may be looking for some action (for fun) around here Would recommend Betmoose for the Semi-Final Matches here but if you want a higher multiplier could bet on the finals match a few days early Patiently waits for the next round Thanks...I rather bet people on the forum though just for fun for BTC. I bet cash if I am making more significant bets (which isn't all that often)... You want a friendly bet : 0 BTC but the loser has to write a message saying the winner is awesome Who will be in finals? If you get 2/2 and the other 1/2 or 0/1 you win; if we both get the same score, the one who got the finals winner wins; in any other case it's a draw My pick : Argentina Brazil, Argentina wins you're in? |
|
|
|
Payments have been sent in the genesis-mining program, but it seems the sig program will be ended after paying everyone. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=631729.msg7599758#msg7599758This was a great campaign month! As of now, we do not continue the signature campaign.
All payments for successfull signatures will be done, but no new paid month started.
Such a shame. Now I have to find another campaign, this one was the highest for 50 posts a month. Join PD, write your usual 100posts and get 0.1 You will be a Hero soon and you will get 0.0012/post jambola2 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=148258 apparently got 0.75 from that sig campaign : 0.15 for the 50posts but he won 3 of the 5 slots so 3*0.15=0.6 |
|
|
|
Hi, I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked: In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price: a) stays on the same level  b) skyrockets c) tumble down  ? In a case of global financial crise, as the 2008 one, the price of each and every financial asset and commodities will go down (oil will go down, stocks, precious metal, and also bitcoin). In such a scenario the only safe haven will be cash and money market securities. (all the rest will crash) However government will never let it happen, and they are ready to print even more in order to avoid this situation. Gold went up from the dotcom bubble explosion to 2012; if we see hyper inflation most commodities will increase in nominal terms The crisis that is coming will not destroy all wealth, it will redistribute the cards and some will come out on top |
|
|
|
Increase in income brings an increase in savings but when prices are going down people buy more not less, it doesn't make sense not to buy because you think the price will be a bit lower in a year. If it was true nobody would buy on credit, when you buy on credit you are going to pay more for the product when you could wait and pay less because you would save the interests but people want the stuff they want sooner rather than later
Agree that in rare cases maybe people restrain from buying to have a lower price but it is the exception, not the rule; look at tv screens sells in the last ten years : people knew the prices were going down but they wanted to buy immediately on credit anyway!
When the prices go down you are happy and you can buy more and usually you will
But what about all the people that lose their jobs? Where are they going to get the money to take advantage of the lower prices? They will buy less but not because the prices went down but because they lost their jobs; the fact that the prices went down is a good thing especially for them, do you think they will be better off if the prices go up while they earn less? Increase in income brings an increase in savings but when prices are going down people buy more not less, it doesn't make sense not to buy because you think the price will be a bit lower in a year. If it was true nobody would buy on credit, when you buy on credit you are going to pay more for the product when you could wait and pay less because you would save the interests but people want the stuff they want sooner rather than later
Agree that in rare cases maybe people restrain from buying to have a lower price but it is the exception, not the rule; look at tv screens sells in the last ten years : people knew the prices were going down but they wanted to buy immediately on credit anyway!
When the prices go down you are happy and you can buy more and usually you will
You do bring up another very important point that was only touched on briefly in one of the above posts: credit, which is probably much more important to this discussion than fear of job loss or waiting for lower prices. I should have brought this up earlier. The world runs on credit. Without it, the world would come to a virtual standstill. During economic crises and deflation, credit dries up. Banks don't want to lend for fear of borrowers defaulting. If few people can get loans for cars and houses, that removes a lot of demand from the economy, which greatly exacerbates a deflationary death spiral. We may be getting somewhere because agree that the deflation that comes with a crisis is happening while a lot of other bad things happen maybe the deflation will even be bad for some companies if they are force to reduce the prices (to get people to consume more! Not less) and it decreases their margin But people shouldn't say that the consumer will consume less because the prices are going down and that he will delay his purchases because it is not true at all, only people really out of touch of the real people can say that consumers delay their purchases and consume less if the prices go down and that prices going up make happy custumers! Consumer credit is a problem, not a solution; people going into debt to buy tvs, appliances and such (even cars) is a bad thing for the economy but maybe shouldn't go there because we were starting to agree Agree that in rare cases maybe people restrain from buying to have a lower price but it is the exception, not the rule
Oh, and one other thing about waiting for lower prices--even if this doesn't have a large impact on some sectors of the consumer economy, it has a HUGE effect on the stock, bond, and commodity markets. While I may not care about whether I can get a TV a little cheaper a couple months from now, you bet I'm going to care if I think I can buy stocks cheaper if I wait a little while. Interesting point but we are not talking about consumer prices anymore but prices in general there; let me think about this one a bit |
|
|
|
Would estimate that 99% of the investors still have access to their emergency addresses so when F2A blocked accounts will have withdrawn, BTC can be sent to the emergency addresses after a reasonable amount of time
I've had 3 people so far being unable to get into their accounts to withdraw funds. I asked all 3 "if the emergency address 1(xxx) still OK?" 1 said "yes", 2 said "no", but 1 of those 2 later regained access to it. So 1/3 or 2/3 depending on how you count it have access according to my tiny sample. People are less careful with Bitcoin than you might imagine. Yes you are right; 99% is probably an exaggeration it may be only between 40-85% that will succeed to regain access to their address because we are talking about people that cannot access their JD accounts, don't contact you or don't check their JD accounts or the forum so they are selected to be less careful |
|
|
|
In 10years, a middle class and even low middle class chinese will live like a King in holidays in the States
They already are. You should see the Chinese students at a local University in my neck of the woods. It's a fairly prestigious University, and costs a pretty penny to attend. The tuition has gone up astronomically in the last 15 years. Even as recently as 6 years ago there were very few non-Caucasians and minorities on campus. Now it's completely taking over by rich Chinese and Korean kids, driving around in their (paid for) Mercedes, Lexus, and BMWs. The campus is now unrecognizable, as Caucasians and all the other groups are now the minority there. You'd think it was a school just for Asians. The local high-end car dealerships say that they sell about 80% of their cars now to the Asian kids attending this University, and have even started to market directly to them. Just goes to show, you need to work harder. Actually these Asian kids didn't work for this money. It's their parent's money, they wire it to them to spend in the States. Mommy and daddy didn't do anything amazing either, they simply bought real estate in China 10-15 years ago (really the only investment the Chinese gov't will allow their citizens to invest in), sat on it, and made a killer return. It was easy money. All of it fake wealth of course, because their real estate market is now in a bubble. Also the Chinese gov't artificially devalues the Yuan so that they can keep exports high and keep in-sourcing work. But they can't keep this up forever, and when it all implodes then their citizens will be royally fked. So will their kids. What makes you think the USA can keep importing stuff forever without exporting nearly as much? Once the petrodollar fails (which should be soon as America is starting to get a lot of resistance both internally and externally) you can say goodbye to your wealth if it's in dollars. You summarised it well, the USD will collapse if the oil producers abandon it and if the bond market stop loaning the money China will benefit of the USD collapse, the question is when the collapse be brutal (more likely) or slow and when will it happen? Within a year? Two years? Or can it still go for as long as 5years?? When everything collapses like in Argentina, the politicians leave office and are replaced by extremists or they don't accept their mistakes like in Argentina and say it is the fault of external forces that want to destroy the country, and people believe it because it reinforces what they still believed and they don't have to challenge their ideas |
|
|
|
Argentina is also in a good spot. I think they could beat both Belgium and the Deutsche to get to the finals.
they were lucky to win Switzerland It is interesting to remember that France won kind of easily against Switzerland We wait 4 years for one month of soccer and already over half way through. These last 8 teams will put on a good display though Depends... in Europe we wait only 2 years so see some pretty good matches  . Honestly thinking of moving to Europe soon lol. My bets will be Argentina to win it all; Brasil-C : C or draw; Germany to destroy France; and a small bet for France and Colombia to win it all (...)
I'm somewhat worried about the France and Germany game. I don't know if it will be THAT easy to destroy France. I'm rooting for Germany OFC. France hasn't been doing horrible themselves. They have been doing pretty well. Granted the type of teams they were facing may be a bit different. It's definitely going to be a great match to watch, and I'm waiting eagerly to see it. On another note, this is my 500th post. (kind of offtopic) France has been doing well, they wouldn't be here if they hadn't My bets will be Argentina to win it all; Brasil-C : C or draw; Germany to destroy France; and a small bet for France and Colombia to win it all (...)
I dont thin they will been playing very poor. Either germanys or columbia to win. Colombia could surprise everyone; some think Holland will go the distance, it is possible but they have to beat Costa Rica first!! Then Argentina (or Belgium) Each quater finale could go one way or the other, it will be very interesting to follow them Colombia its in the best possition because they are on quarters, so Brazil people will not be so dissapointed so see their team out and because they will be kicked out by another south american nation, then they can beat the semifinals and probably go to finals. Colombia is in the quarters for the first time, they have no obligation to win. But Brazil, with 5 titles, playing at home, after not good matches in this cup, will be under severe pressure. The question is will Brazil start playing as well as expected; they can use the pressure to their advantage, there is always pressure if the prize is huge Anyone placing any BTC bets on the next round of World Cup games? I may be looking for some action (for fun) around here Argentina to win the WC; Germany to qualify and win against France; Colombia to win or draw; Argentina to win against Belgium and four very small bets Germany-France 3-0 2-0, Colombia to win it all, France to win it all |
|
|
|
Will bitcoin ever replace currenries we have today ?
It might happen, but a sort of a revolution has to occur whereby people will lose faith in centralized monetary system i.e if they don't think their money is no longer safe. maybe an 1/ 8th of the worlds population If the USD, the Euro and the Yen collapse relatively to hard assets, Gold, or Bitcoin people will see the value of a decentralized currency that is not daily manipulated by the State |
|
|
|
just go to the first post go edit
and then go top and edit your subject!
Thanks. I did that. no problem so there isnt any change that jD will come online back again ?! There's a chance, but for now I don't want to be "dealing in Bitcoin". Good Hope it is not a chance like that : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA FEeling dicey today, making a small deposit here, hoping i can atleast double my coins, Proves people don't read titles Would estimate that 99% of the investors still have access to their emergency addresses so when F2A blocked accounts will have withdrawn, BTC can be sent to the emergency addresses after a reasonable amount of time |
|
|
|
Why not just just them all? The more ways to reference it and start a discussion the better if you ask me. I'm starting to like the idea of bits but can't say it is a better system then mbtc so why not just incorporate both and explain the amount as a reference?
The winner will be decided by the free market |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
