Moj broker zlokalizowany na cyprze umożliwia mi zakup IBIT (etf od blackrocka). FBTC też jest dostępny. Reszty nie chciało mi się sprawdzać.


Pewnie pociągną tam, gdzie najbardziej zaboli. Czyli właśnie poniżej 40k, bo tam jest najbliższe silne wsparcie i pewnie tam najwięcej stop losów. A osobiście myślę, że dopiero kolejne wsparcie może zatrzymać kurs, czyli okolice 33k. Ale ja już nie jestem obiektywny w tym temacie, bo "Put your money where your mouth is". A prawda jest taka, że wszystko jest możliwe, bo sytuacja jest bezprecedensowa.

https://nitter.net/therationalroot/status/1744858615993815428#m

"kupuj plotki sprzedaj fakty", czy może "haker" konta SEC miał na tyle kapitału, że zatrzymał wzrosty zleceniami sprzedaży, realizując zyski z "haku"?

BTW. Nie znałem tej opcji z nitterem. to jest jakiś mirror twittera tylko, że nie trzeba się logować?

My możemy sobie spekulować, jak kto z nas rozegra bitcoin ETF news, a okazuje się, że inni mają już dokładny plan jak rozegrać nas. A mianowicie wczoraj o 22 pojawił się fake news z shakowanego konta SEC.


https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1744830363250164173/photo/1

"The
@SECGov
 twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products."
https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1744833049064288387

reakcja rynku:

Isn't it the case that these sites don't have to be balanced and most of them aren't? that if there is, for example, $1 million in customer funds for a win and $100,000 for a loss, then we simply have a total of $1.1 million in bets, 50k takes the casino as its fee, 1.05 million remains, so if our team wins for each $1 in bet, we get 1.05 $ back, and if we bet on the team loss and we win we get $10.5 back for each $1 in bet?

So if an arbitrageur comes in and bets $100,000 on teamX lose, it just changes the win/loss statistics and doesn't change how much the casino earns? So it changes the distribution of winnings between bettors and makes money from it?

Am I wrong here?


As I understand sports betting, the arbitrageur's profits are constant and certain, as you wrote, but they do not reduce the casino's profits but, for example, reduce the winnings of those betting on X by $1,000, increase the winnings of those betting on Y by 990$ and they get $10 out of it for themselves.

1- IF he is a resident of the United States. US law applies to the US, not the whole world.
2- what is the penalty for breaking this law? Probably some fine. Compare this to the risks of disclosing a fortune of $45 billion. No one in their right mind would come forward for this reason.
3- If the goal was to flush Satoshi out, why wasn't $11k sent? This would be enough to create a tax obligation

In my opinion, a much more likely scenario is that, at some heavily alcoholic/drug-fueled party, on some millionaires' yacht, just as a joke, it was sent a moment after the words "hold my beer".

According to estimates, in the middle of 2021, there were 56 million people worldwide whose assets exceeded one million US dollars
Around 2,132,856 households in America have $10 million or more in net worth

What are the chances that from the group of 56 million people, there will be someone crazy enough to do it for fun? In my opinion, it's huge. Case closed.

Dziś 8 stycznia. Jesteśmy idealnie w środku przedziału spodziewanego ogłoszenia. Równo tydzien przed ostateczną datą. Ostatnia szansa, by podzielić się swoimi strategiami przed listingiem. Trzymacie swoje bitcoiny i cały event was nie interesuje? Trzymacie, bo spodziewacie się ogromnych wzrostów po listingu? planujecie realizać zyski w myśl "kupuj plotki, sprzedawaj fakty"? Czy może macie zupełnie inny plan? Zapraszam do ankiety i dyskusji

Thank you all for your advice and opinions. To sum up your posts it can be said, that technically it's achievable, but the profits are small, there are many risks, the main of which is the need to keep a large amount of funds in many casinos and the risk of freezing the account, because casinos are very sensitive to such strategies. But I still don't fully understand why. After all, the casino is only an operator, and the provider is only an intermediary between players and not the other party to the bet. Am I wrong here?


It seems to me that those who come to casino to gamble are not the same ones who come to arbitrage. what I mean is that by blocking arbitrageurs you are unlikely to turn them into new customers who bet on matches.

I'm not talking about making money on roulette, dice or other games of chance. Here, the casino is the opposing party to the transaction (it earns when we lose and loses when we earn) and agrees to it because it has a statistical advantage. In the case of sportbetting, this is not the case, because the casino owner would bear too much risk because it is impossible to perfectly estimate the probability of each match. Therefore, in the case of sportbetting, the casino is only an intermediary between bettors sets the odds based on how others bet, only adding their fees to the formula. A casino is not, or at least should not be, a party to a transaction in which the probability cannot be accurately calculated, because at that point it ceases to be a casino and begins to be a gambler.
Just like playing poker online. Casinos don't ban people who win too much at poker...

It's just correlation, not causation. What's more, there is also a thesis (although this is a less popular approach) describes bitcoin's growth cycles after the presidential elections (which, surprise, also happen every 4 years).


Every 4 Years a President Is Elected and Bitcoin Moons

I have another one. Mars moves in 4-year cycles. And the dates when it was closest to the earth meant a mega bitcoin rally.





Correlation is not causation. Bitcoin has a loose correlation with halving as well as with elections or distance from Mars. there is no evidence that there is any causality behind this, and if we are talking about a decreasing supplyafter the halving(rewards split by half), this fact has already a negligible value. because the first halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12% and the current one from 1.5% to 0.8%

but with sportbetting, my winnings do not come from the casino's pocket, but from the pockets of other bettors. The casino only acts as an intermediary and sets the rate. Binance has never given me any problems with the fact that I make money on the their exchange, because I make money at the expense of those who lose and not at the expense of Binance, for Binance I am only volume (on which they make money) and additional liquidity (which attracts other traders). Isn't it the same with sportbetting?

yes, I have heard how much bitcoin is used in nigeria and neighboring countries and how quickly it is gaining new users. And the best thing is that Nigeria is developing and growing in population:
"In 2022, Nigeria's population was estimated at around 219 million individuals. Demographic projections show that the Nigerian population might experience a constant increase in the next decades. By 2050, it is forecast that the population will grow to over 377 million people"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122955/forecast-population-in-nigeria/

So there is the power of young people open to new technologies. the only question is how it works legally. I heard that bitcoin is not entirely legal there?

Sports betting arbitrage is a strategy in which a player takes advantage of discrepancies in the odds offered by sportbetting sites to obtain profit. Have any of you tried to make money this way? what difficulties did you encounter? What bookmakers did you use? Have any of you had problems with bookmakers because of this? Why does it bother them anyway?

I just wanted to put to rest the idea that maybe it's better to do exactly the opposite? I have heard that large professional casinos use AI to profile players and estimate their amount of pain - the amount of loss after which they will not return to the casino for a long time. They usually arrive moments before, offering a free dinner, some attraction not related to gambling, or even an overnight stay in a hotel. Anything to distract the gambler from losing more and going beyond the pain limit. All this so that the gambler will come back tomorrow and lose another portion of money instead of losing 10% more today and not coming back for six months. And here's my question. Doesn't following OP's advice help the casino do the work, effectively increasing the amount of money lost at the casino?

Piękne życzenie Niestety ja się nie przyłaczam do niego, bo zamierzam rozegrać na rynku jego przeciwieńtwo. Powiem więcej aż mnie palce ciążą nad przyciskiem sell i ciężko mi już je utrzymać. Wstępnie scenariusz taki, że czekam na pierwszy dzień listingu, ale media są tak ślepo zakochane w ETFie, że widzę same czerwone flagi do dalszego trzymania. Wszyscy tylko oczekują "god candle". To się musi zawalić. Jak wpisuję w google słowo bitcoin to to są pierwsze 4 nagłówki jakie widzę:

"ETF-y BTC coraz bliżej: SEC przyjmuje poprawki od emitentów"
"hłodzicie szampany? Oto najnowsze informacje Bloomberg o Bitcoin ETF!"
"Bitcoin przebije 69 tys. USD, zanim spadnie o 30-40%, ostrzega Arthur Hayes"
"Inwestycje Polaków. Czy to będzie rok złota, bitcoina czy AI?"

Na twitterze też wszyscy o tym gadają. Porównują do złota. Przewidują, że może dziś, a jak dziś to za kilka godzin a jak nie dziś, to w poniedziałek itp. Cały rynek ewidentnie gra pod jedno.

A co do halvingu, to na 100 dni przed halvingiem do 100 dni po halvingu zwykle jest bokiem albo w doł. dopiero potem jest pompa.


https://charts.bitbo.io/stock-to-flow/

ciemno niebieski to zwykle nie wzrosty.

I don't know if there is such a function as a local moderator, because in this thread the idea is not for wwzsocki to become a global official moderator, but only to be able to moderate our small backyard where a dozen or so users are active. nothing more. And it is only to do so temporarily until our current moderator returns. Do you really idealize this function so much that you demand from a candidate to be whiter than paper? Candidate chosen by the community for which he is about to do this function.

Co do tego, jak kończą projekty RWA, nic się nie zmieniło od 2017 roku od kiedy po raz pierwszy zrobiło się o nich głośno. obiecać jest łatwo ale znacznie trudniej dostarczyć zwłaszcza jak zabiera się to bystry 15 latek z kolegą a przeciwko stoi SEC albo inny regulator z tysiącami prawników. Atlant jest tego świetnym przykładem. Projekt wystartował z dużym airdropem i bounty w lipcu 2017 i do dziś boksuje się z regulatorami i postępów nie widać a sam kurs spadł już 99% od ATH, listowany jest tylko na 2 giełdach, których bałbym się używać a dzienny wolumen wynosi 0$. @wwzsocki zna ten projekt lepiej to ci może opowiedzieć dokładnie co i kiedy było obiecywane i czemu nie zostało dostarczone.
Moim zdaniem ściana musi zostać najpierw przebita przez dużych graczy.

the problem is that those who like to combine investing and finance with entertainment are usually not the ones who will survive their first year of "investing". Forex is already unpredictable enough, and at high leverage it provides above-average emotions. I doubt anyone would need forex in the form of a game especially combined with shaky, illiquid, small token that is backing the system.


this is a good idea for a game. Do it, build userbase, make your first million, build a team and come back and do v2 on blockchain bringing here your userbase. There are currently at least 1000 metaverse and gaming(GameFi) projects.
I suspect you are competing for only 10,000 people who are here in crypto and would like to try such games at the current level. It will be different in 10 years, AAA titles, on VR goggles (meta quest 10) and full immersion. There, adding good economics to a good game can be a success. But not a mini-game made by a few people in 2024.

Dorzuciłem swoje 5 groszy. Moim zdaniem dobry wątek. Zobaczymu czy zadziała. Z odpowiedzi wyczytałem w sumie 2 dobre rady. Pierwsza to wywołać szefa forum do dyskusji, chyba najlepiej @nick, albo PMem, a druga to wspomnieć o reportach. @wwzoskci z tego co pamiętam, to w jakimś wątku kiedyś pisałeś, że masz tego na prawdę dużo. Czy pomyliłem z kimś innym?

The only difference is that there are other mods and if general forum doesn't turn into garbage, you can assume that they have effectively taken over the responsibilities of the absent ones and are keeping up with their tasks. The problem with the Polish section is that we have had 0 moderators there for almost 10 months. There is no one to remove spam, there is no one to clean threads. We didn't know how to approach it, how to publicize the fact that we currently don't have our "Texas Ranger" for so long and finaly how to get a new mod. We decided to go the merit source route, i.e. choose the best candidate from ourselves and propose it here. If you have any advice on how to do it better and achieve success, we'd love to hear it.


Good point. @Wwzsocki, from what I remember, you used to report a lot?

the problem is that it's hard to define your target. Who will use your game? Someone looking for entertainment? Then your competition is netflix, disney, twitter, facebook, instagram, blizzard, nintendo, tencent, ubisoft, EA, epic games and more. They have entire departments employing hundreds of psychologists who specialize in creating addictive products. They have AI mechanisms that manipulate you into scrolling just a little longer. Good luck competing with them for people's attention. What team do you have to compete with them. What experience do you have in creating games? You have to be much better than the mentioned rivals, because they only want to provide people with entertainment, and you plan to build a huge entry threshold before the game in the form of a token that you need to have to play and the blockchain that you need to learn to find your way in it.
The idea "I will create a game and base the economy of a token, probably valued at millions, on it" sounds to me a bit like saying that "on Tuesday I plan to develop a cure for cancer and on Wednesday I will start selling it for tokens. People like not to have cancer, so on they will definitely buy tokens, which will transfer the demand for the cure to the price, pumping up the valuation." It's not that easy to create a game that someone will want to play.