I it's got notified of two malicious login attempts. One in Germany one in USA.
Same here. I am lucky to have static IPs so I have my wallet locked down and moved my coin out of my mobile wallet just in case. |
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It's always exciting to try to login to My Wallet with GA 2-factor authentication. Half of the times I manage to log in on 3rd attempt, some times after restarting the app on iPhone. Some times I get in from 1st attempt. And other times, like now, my account gets locked for 4 hours after 5 failed attempts.
Looks like the GA has serious time drift problems.
(At least I have access to my Wallet through the iPhone app, though it lacks custom send option for selecting sending and change addresses.)
Use Authy... it is MUCH better than GA: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/authy/id494168017?mt=8 Also if you have a Mac and Bluetooth 4.0 you can get their companion desktop app that will pair with your phone and mage the TFA much easier to use in all. |
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whydifficult I realize I may be getting a little obnoxious about this, but I think I've found another bug in the backtester. When putting a unix timecode in the "from:" category the program misinterprets it (I think). The timecode is 1367989200 which should translate to 2013-05-08 05:00:00 but instead is read as 2013-08-16 17:00:00. Doing the same on the "to:" time works completely fine. Obviously this isn't a pressing issue, since I can still just edit the CSV files, it's just one I figured you should know about.
I noticed this too and assumed it had to do with UTC/GMT offsets. |
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Terrific work. A few questions: 1. Which moving averages did you use? Simple, exponential, or weighted? Exponential 2. Did you include the .6% fee per transaction in your calculations?
Yes, a flat 0.6%, so it *could* be less depending on your trading volume. 3. Is the trade executed at the close of the period which defines the crossover?
No. I have a +/-0.25 threshold setup. So EMA(f)/EMA(s) must be >or< +/-0.25 in order to generate a signal. This is to avoid whipsaws. I backtested the 10/21 EMA crossover on the daily chart starting back in the day (entry price of $0.40) to the present, and I definitely did not get a negative result (two and a half times as well as buy and hold). Not sure how to interpret your negative number there.
I mentioned earlier: the numbers are profit (starting with 2.5BTC) So the 'worst' you will ever see is -2.5 (total loss). 0 would mean that you would have 2.5BTC and 1 would be 3.5BTC in your account. This is not an entire life of bitcoin backtest. Just Apr18->Aug5 of this year. Here is a full Gekko log of the D1-10/21 backtest showing the trades and explaining the numbers. Thanks for the feedback everyone. I am finding some really interesting things doing this. For instance H1 was actually the most profitable timeframe (with the right params) since Jan 1 but not since Apr. I should extract percentages from the reports too, so I can compare differing timeframes and not just profit. |
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Backtesting bug?
I see only two crossovers, not 5. What am I missing?
nm... looks like even at 100 it was not enough to calculate 'accurate' EMAs, running from Jan-1 and examining the period shows what one would expect from the bitcoincharts source: 2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): I'm gonna make you rich, Bud Fox.
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): Let me show you some Exponential Moving Averages.
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): Preparing backtester to test strategy against historical data.
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): Profit reporter active on simulated balance
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): Calculating EMA on historical data...
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): calculated initial EMA, simulating remaining candles
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to BUY @ 14.237 (4.098) at 2013-01-11 17:00:00
.. snip ..
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 134.444 (25.786) at 2013-04-27 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 144.000 (26.609) at 2013-04-28 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 139.227 (25.759) at 2013-04-29 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 116.380 (20.081) at 2013-04-30 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 106.250 (13.674) at 2013-05-01 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 98.100 (7.107) at 2013-05-02 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 112.900 (6.415) at 2013-05-03 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 115.980 (6.671) at 2013-05-04 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 112.250 (5.793) at 2013-05-05 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 109.600 (4.466) at 2013-05-06 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 113.200 (4.489) at 2013-05-07 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 112.799 (4.339) at 2013-05-08 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 117.700 (5.445) at 2013-05-09 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 115.640 (5.547) at 2013-05-10 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 114.820 (5.328) at 2013-05-11 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 117.980 (5.916) at 2013-05-12 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 111.400 (4.546) at 2013-05-13 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 114.220 (4.323) at 2013-05-14 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 118.210 (5.138) at 2013-05-15 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 123.500 (6.896) at 2013-05-16 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 123.211 (7.829) at 2013-05-17 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 122.500 (8.137) at 2013-05-18 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 122.020 (8.107) at 2013-05-19 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 122.890 (8.184) at 2013-05-20 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 123.800 (8.337) at 2013-05-21 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 126.300 (8.908) at 2013-05-22 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 133.100 (10.710) at 2013-05-23 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 131.986 (11.430) at 2013-05-24 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 133.500 (12.058) at 2013-05-25 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 129.770 (11.461) at 2013-05-26 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 129.000 (10.751) at 2013-05-27 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 132.250 (10.872) at 2013-05-28 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 128.799 (10.034) at 2013-05-29 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 128.815 (9.363) at 2013-05-30 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 129.300 (8.916) at 2013-05-31 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 122.500 (6.969) at 2013-06-01 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 120.737 (5.202) at 2013-06-02 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 121.400 (4.143) at 2013-06-03 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 121.900 (3.524) at 2013-06-04 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 118.970 (2.378) at 2013-06-05 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to SELL @ 111.000 (-0.354) at 2013-06-06 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 107.892 (-2.944) at 2013-06-07 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 100.437 (-6.599) at 2013-06-08 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 106.350 (-7.332) at 2013-06-09 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 109.000 (-6.992) at 2013-06-10 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 108.776 (-6.746) at 2013-06-11 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 103.949 (-7.828) at 2013-06-12 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 100.000 (-9.548) at 2013-06-13 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 99.800 (-10.620) at 2013-06-14 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 99.900 (-11.161) at 2013-06-15 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 101.950 (-10.778) at 2013-06-16 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 107.350 (-8.838) at 2013-06-17 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 108.251 (-7.243) at 2013-06-18 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 111.290 (-5.294) at 2013-06-19 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 109.500 (-4.483) at 2013-06-20 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 108.200 (-4.263) at 2013-06-21 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 107.900 (-4.149) at 2013-06-22 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 102.090 (-5.628) at 2013-06-23 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 103.329 (-6.175) at 2013-06-24 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 104.000 (-6.261) at 2013-06-25 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 101.737 (-6.882) at 2013-06-26 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 94.660 (-9.259) at 2013-06-27 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 94.999 (-10.616) at 2013-06-28 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 97.510 (-10.614) at 2013-06-29 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 88.050 (-13.398) at 2013-06-30 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 90.405 (-14.339) at 2013-07-01 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 78.890 (-18.577) at 2013-07-02 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 80.036 (-20.838) at 2013-07-03 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 68.500 (-26.306) at 2013-07-04 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 69.655 (-29.339) at 2013-07-05 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 76.500 (-28.368) at 2013-07-06 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 76.000 (-27.614) at 2013-07-07 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 76.700 (-26.541) at 2013-07-08 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 88.000 (-21.246) at 2013-07-09 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 88.979 (-17.337) at 2013-07-10 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 93.990 (-12.932) at 2013-07-11 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 98.320 (-8.596) at 2013-07-12 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 94.420 (-7.044) at 2013-07-13 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 98.890 (-4.553) at 2013-07-14 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 97.100 (-3.483) at 2013-07-15 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 98.500 (-2.327) at 2013-07-16 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 90.069 (-4.165) at 2013-07-17 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 92.000 (-4.704) at 2013-07-18 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 89.821 (-5.688) at 2013-07-19 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 91.998 (-5.555) at 2013-07-20 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 91.601 (-5.527) at 2013-07-21 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 95.559 (-4.173) at 2013-07-22 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 95.090 (-3.407) at 2013-07-23 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 96.950 (-2.294) at 2013-07-24 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 96.020 (-1.845) at 2013-07-25 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 94.400 (-2.035) at 2013-07-26 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 98.780 (-0.780) at 2013-07-27 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to BUY @ 101.484 (0.840) at 2013-07-28 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 107.960 (3.742) at 2013-07-29 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 106.212 (4.995) at 2013-07-30 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 104.000 (5.093) at 2013-07-31 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 104.501 (5.229) at 2013-08-01 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 104.950 (5.370) at 2013-08-02 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 105.120 (5.435) at 2013-08-03 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 106.720 (5.848) at 2013-08-04 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): ADVICE is to HOLD @ 106.760 (6.042) at 2013-08-05 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): WARNING: BACKTESTING FEATURE NEEDS PROPER TESTING
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): WARNING: ACT ON THESE NUMBERS AT YOUR OWN RISK!
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) start time: 2013-01-10 17:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) end time: 2013-08-05 18:00:00
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) timespan: 207 days
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) start price: 13.51001
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) end price: 106.76002
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) Buy and Hold profit: 690.229%
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) amount of trades: 3
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) original simulated balance: 2.500 undefined
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) current simulated balance: 2.702 undefined
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) simulated profit: 0.202 undefined (8.068%)
2013-08-09 15:01:17 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) simulated yearly profit: 0.347 undefined (13.876%)
Anyone know off the top of their head how many back candles are really needed to prime the EMA for 'good' values? |
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Backtesting bug? Here is my log: 2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): I'm gonna make you rich, Bud Fox.
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Let me show you some Exponential Moving Averages.
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Preparing backtester to test strategy against historical data.
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Profit reporter active on simulated balance
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Calculating EMA on historical data...
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): calculated initial EMA, simulating remaining candles
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to SELL @ 144.000 (-15.292) at 2013-04-28 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to BUY @ 98.100 (2.663) at 2013-05-02 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to SELL @ 123.500 (-1.375) at 2013-05-16 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to BUY @ 111.000 (2.609) at 2013-06-06 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to SELL @ 101.484 (-0.493) at 2013-07-28 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): WARNING: BACKTESTING FEATURE NEEDS PROPER TESTING
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): WARNING: ACT ON THESE NUMBERS AT YOUR OWN RISK!
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) start time: 2013-04-27 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) end time: 2013-08-05 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) timespan: 100 days
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) start price: 93.07
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) end price: 106.76002
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) Buy and Hold profit: 14.709%
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) amount of trades: 5
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) original simulated balance: 2.500 undefined
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) current simulated balance: 3.766 undefined
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) simulated profit: 1.266 undefined (50.646%)
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) simulated yearly profit: 4.508 undefined (180.301%)
But if we look at the bitcoincharts for the same period: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2013-04-18zeg2013-08-05ztgSza1gEMAzm1g5za2gEMAzm2g50zvI see only two crossovers, not 5. What am I missing? |
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Erik Voorhees was wise to sell SDICE and pay back all the investors before the same thing happened to him.
FYI that would necessarily devoid him of any responsibility. If I started a casino then sold it to jimmy that I still broke the law and profited from the crime and could still be prosecuted. In theory but in reality no smoke less chance of a fire. The chances of a prosecution go down (especially over time) if the operation is wrapped up and there is no complaint. While yes if the staute of limitations is 7 years they could wait until 2021 and prosecute him them but that probably isn't going to happen. This is the government we are talking about. There is always some new dumbass to go after which is still in the news and seen as a "bigger deal". This is true... however assume that Erik gets nabed for something else. They can use it to stack charges. But I agree that he is most likely ok. |
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Erik Voorhees was wise to sell SDICE and pay back all the investors before the same thing happened to him.
FYI that would necessarily devoid him of any responsibility. If I started a casino then sold it to jimmy that I still broke the law and profited from the crime and could still be prosecuted. |
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And how interesting it is: Developed in 2009 by an anonymous programmer or
programmers, bitcoin is a privately-issued digital currency that exists only
as a long string of numbers and letters in a user’s computer file
---
IRS is responsible for ensuring taxpayer compliance for all economic
areas, including virtual economies and currencies. One mechanism that
assists IRS in enforcing tax laws is information reporting, through which
third parties report to IRS and taxpayers on certain taxpayer transactions.
---
U.S. tax laws and regulations generally require
taxpayers to report and pay taxes on all income, regardless of the source
from which the income was derived
---
Ann plays an online game and amasses virtual tools that are valuable
to her avatar. The online game does not allow users to directly
exchange their virtual tools for U.S. dollars, but rather they can do so
using a third-party, making this a hybrid system. Ann uses a thirdparty exchange not affiliated with the online game to coordinate the
transfer of her virtual tools to another player in exchange for U.S.
dollars. The transfer is conducted by the third-party exchange and
payment is mediated by a third-party payment network. Ann may have
earned taxable income from the sale of these virtual tools.
---
Bill is a bitcoin miner. He successfully mines 25 bitcoins. Bill may
have earned taxable income from his mining activities.
---
Carol makes t-shirts and sells them over the Internet. She sells a tshirt to Bill, who pays her with bitcoins. Carol may have earned
taxable income from the sale of the t-shirt.
---
These risks are not unique to virtual economies and currencies, as they also exist for
other types of transactions, such as cash transactions, where there are
not always clear records or third-party tracking and reporting of
transactions
---
If taxpayers using virtual currencies turn to the Internet for tax help, they
may find misinformation in the absence of clear guidance from IRS.
For example, when we performed a simple Internet search for
information on taxation of bitcoin transactions, we found a number of
websites, wikis, and blogs that provided differing opinions on the tax
treatment of bitcoins, including some that could lead taxpayers to
believe that transacting in virtual currencies relieves them of their
responsibilities to report and pay taxes.
---
According to IRS compliance officials, IRS ultimately decided not to
pursue these actions in light of available IRS resources and other higher
priority needs. Also, IRS did not find strong evidence of the potential for
tax noncompliance related to virtual economies, such as the number of
U.S. taxpayers involved in such activity or the amount of federal tax
revenue at risk.
---
IRS has not assessed the tax compliance risks of open-flow virtual
currencies developed and used outside of virtual economies. These types
of currencies, generally, were introduced after IRS’s last review of
compliance related to virtual economy transactions. According to IRS
compliance officials, IRS would learn about tax compliance issues related
to virtual currencies as it would any other tax compliance issue, such as
IRS examiners identifying compliance problems during examinations or
taxpayers requesting guidance on how to comply with certain tax
requirements. To date, these processes have not resulted in IRS
identifying virtual currencies used outside of virtual economies as a
compliance risk that warrants specific attention.
And finally the conclusion: Virtual economies and the use of virtual currencies intended as
alternatives to government-issued currencies are a recent phenomenon,
and the extent to which their use results in tax noncompliance is
unknown. Given this uncertainty, available funding, and other priorities,
IRS made a reasoned decision not to implement a compliance approach
specific to virtual economies and currencies. However, IRS did see value
15Although IRS has not issued guidance, another Department of the Treasury agency, the
Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, recently issued interpretive guidance clarifying
the treatment of persons creating, obtaining, distributing, exchanging, accepting, or
transmitting virtual currencies. However, such guidance does not discuss the tax
treatment of virtual currency transactions. FIN-2013-G001
in providing taxpayers with information on the tax consequences of virtual
economy transactions, a low-cost step to potentially mitigate some of the
noncompliance risk associated with such transactions. The uncertainty
about the extent virtual currencies are used in taxable transactions and
any associated tax noncompliance means that costly compliance
activities are not merited at this time. However, the fact that
misinformation is circulating and the possibility of growth in the use of
virtual currencies outside virtual economies suggest that it would be
prudent to take low-cost steps, if available, to mitigate potential
compliance risks. The type of information IRS provided about virtual
economy transactions is one model.
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This will continue to be a precedent setting case and I believe we'll see criminal prosecution of Trendon and maybe even some of the pass throughs.
As well as an official US legal opinion that bitcoin is legal tender? What does legal tender have to do with it? It was my understanding that there was no official US opinion on the fact. There is now. |
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I think this is unique - it seems most mining hardware is rated at a certain hashpower, but true output is typically less than promised.
Another first |
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1JqpTwfcGSGzgLyeTfWfsmVVo8D7XYmvdX
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This will continue to be a precedent setting case and I believe we'll see criminal prosecution of Trendon and maybe even some of the pass throughs.
As well as an official US legal opinion that bitcoin is legal tender? |
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(2) why the extreme gap in time intervals? 1d is pretty slow moving, probably *too* slow moving for this market. 5min is almost certainly way too fast. Conventional wisdom would dictate to try 1h, maybe 2h time intervals.
I actually test on 7 different candles, these were just to two I posted. Given what Marcus posted: I am not sure my charts are ready for prime time, but that is why I posted to see what I was missing. |
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That is interesting. I wonder if there is a bug in Gekko. I will look into this tomorrow. |
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Looking at one of the most profitable combos, the 6/50, you only get one sell and one buy signal during that time frame. I think you need a longer test period to really validate.
I actually got 5: 2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): I'm gonna make you rich, Bud Fox.
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Let me show you some Exponential Moving Averages.
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Preparing backtester to test strategy against historical data.
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Profit reporter active on simulated balance
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): Calculating EMA on historical data...
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): calculated initial EMA, simulating remaining candles
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to SELL @ 144.000 (-14.790) at 2013-04-28 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to BUY @ 98.100 (0.643) at 2013-05-02 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to SELL @ 123.500 (-0.978) at 2013-05-16 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to BUY @ 111.000 (1.849) at 2013-06-06 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): ADVICE is to SELL @ 107.960 (-2.621) at 2013-07-29 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): WARNING: BACKTESTING FEATURE NEEDS PROPER TESTING
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): WARNING: ACT ON THESE NUMBERS AT YOUR OWN RISK!
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) start time: 2013-04-27 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) end time: 2013-08-05 18:00:00
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) timespan: 100 days
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) start price: 93.07
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) end price: 106.76002
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) Buy and Hold profit: 14.709%
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) amount of trades: 5
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) original simulated balance: 2.500 undefined
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) current simulated balance: 4.006 undefined
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) simulated profit: 1.506 undefined (60.259%)
2013-08-07 09:02:24 (INFO): (PROFIT REPORT) simulated yearly profit: 5.363 undefined (214.524%)
But I agree about the time period. The problem is that anything before ~Apr-18 and your results are skewed by the 'bubble'. I am looking for more 'real world' results given that any of these signals would trip during a bubble like that anyway. |
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So I wrote some script to use the Gekko Bot to do batch-range backtesting to generate charts similar to what Goomboo posted back in Feb 2012. I ran multiple candles / timeframes / values. Here is some candy (timeframe picked to be after the Apr crash): mtgoxUSD-D1start time: 2013-04-27 18:00:00
end time: 2013-08-05 18:00:00
timespan: 100 days
mtgoxUSD-M5start time: 2013-04-17 18:50:00
end time: 2013-08-06 08:30:00
timespan: 110 days
The numbers you see is the expected PROFIT. The simulation started with a modest 2.5 BTC. Obviously <0 is not good (a loss). Interestingly enough it looks like M5 candles are NOT a good choice right now. |
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Guys, let me describe how my sales are structured and maybe it will clear things up. First - I have three sales channels, not all of which are run through the online store:
Retail: online eCommerce - megabigpower.com, affiliates and partner sites (pool ops for example)
Wholesale: private mines, large hosted placements, investor/customers & various flavors of mining bond/share based mining
OEM: bulk chip sales for manufacture
The Retail channel was opened up first to give the best opportunity to the community. The starter kits were also discounted for this reason. The Wholesale channel was opened up for October delivery and has a minimum $250k commitment with a demonstrated potential for larger purchases and re-buys. OEM is chips by the reel or participatory investment in chip orders, i.e. Metabank.
Lab_Rat controls a potential hardware buy of up to $1m with rebuys. These guys don't operate through a website to make these kinds of purchases. Usually there's negotiation, pro-forma sales terms, proof (usually in person), deposits, delivery, final payment.
Lab_Rat isn't even in the Retail queue - he's in the Wholesale side, though he mis-characterized that in his comments. I have a completely different Test & Ship Team for Retail & Wholesale channels. For now, bulk chips are sold as drop ship from Europe, but that may change too.
Understand that if you are in this half of the world and you want to buy BitFury, you have to buy it from me at the moment. There is a lot of money coming into Bitcoin mining and each type of customer requires a different structure.
I would also like to state to all those who have sour grapes: This kind of structuring is very very common in the 'real world'. Take a look at WalMart as a good example. |
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