even stupider than the people who write this shit, are the morons who believe it.
Believe what exactly? That we're going down, hard? That's a fact. that's not a fact. thats an opinion. just because the majority seems to consider it a fact doesn't mean it is a fact. its subject to dispute. Yesterday was higher, the day before yesterday was higher, last week was higher. Short and mid term, is going down. Dispute that. |
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Geez, I'm not buying till the high $50s because I believe any bounce before that is not worth the risk, thus Im more bearish than lucif? Wow, thats news  |
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even stupider than the people who write this shit, are the morons who believe it.
Believe what exactly? That we're going down, hard? That's a fact. Or do you mean that bitcoin has failed? Nobody in here said anything to that effect. As an aside: I noticed there's a noticeable divide between members of this subforum, those who take it personal if price goes down, and those who don't. The latter are not exclusively speculators (although certainly all speculators belong to that group), but they share the view that the market will determine the price, no matter what. And, yes, "the market" includes manipulating whales. Of course, there's a third group: those who invested too much to not take it personal. Very much spot on. |
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Doubt it, at this point everyone that's going to panic is out or resigned to sit back for the upside. This is just trying to squeeze the last bit out and the sponge looks dry, could work out expensive if a whale sees it.
As soon as the price stays stable on thin volume or it goes down for some days, little by little, another dump will come, which will cause more panic, etc. there's absolutely no sign of a trend reversal yet. What will be the sign of trend reversal? Some buying pressure? A rally on decent volume, instead of this ridiculous sucker rallies with thin and declining volume we've seen in all the traps so far, since the crash of April 10th? The money flow on the exchanges order books starting to increase, instead of declining? You know, the usual stuff. Plus, we could see the tipping point approaching if there would be some real despair. You know, posts declining in this forum, articles on mainstream media about how Bitcoin may be dead for good, a failed experiment and so on... The kind of things that happen around the bottom of a bubble. Im not saying this needs to happens, but for sure there is no sign of trend reversal to be seen. |
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bad new, regulation, more bad news, winklevii
BS. It's just a speculative bubble deflating. No more, no less. |
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Doubt it, at this point everyone that's going to panic is out or resigned to sit back for the upside. This is just trying to squeeze the last bit out and the sponge looks dry, could work out expensive if a whale sees it.
As soon as the price stays stable on thin volume or it goes down for some days, little by little, another dump will come, which will cause more panic, etc. there's absolutely no sign of a trend reversal yet. |
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They're out of coins atm, only about 3.5k bought back for the next dump so there will likely be another steady and consistent rise while they stock up again.
Just a trap. As soon as the order book is replenished of bids, there goes the dump. There's no more confidence in BTC price. People is starting to realize they need to extract from it as many $ as they can. |
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I've placed my bid at $56. Too soon?
Don't think its soon, I placed around that, just to play the bounce. But I'm very doubtful its going to be the bottom. Probably we will bounce a few times from the 50s, and despair and capitulation will take more time to come. We went from $105ish to $66 very very quickly. I guess there will be a "wait and see" period sooner or later. |
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Frozenlock/Blitz/Rampion right now (seen from ShroomsKits perspective) :  LOL I have to say that guy inspires me some kind of tenderness, he seems so emotional, so helpless... Its like you need to give him a hug |
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Yep, that was on Bitstamp. The $50s approaching. |
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Yeah fuck it just dropped to 66
Denial can hold for some time, but when fear takes over the sell button starts to itch even to the biggest supporters of "buy&hold" |
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WTF? We visited $63? Jeez guys, prepare the gif for the $50s
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Lots of dumps too, that last one was expensive though. Doubt they can afford to push it much lower without some big buys.
Bull traps are expected but bounces has been quite smallish during the crash from the $90s. I guess the big one will arrive soon... But nevertheless fear is taking over. |
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get ready for bounce
you are right it will bounce. It alway do. There's no BTC bubble deflation without juicy bull traps |
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Denial is fading indeed, those who were saying "I just buy and hold forever" are starting to ask to themselves why they should be the bag holders, if they can sell and buy back cheaper?
Welcome fear. Lots of future coming today.
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TheKoziTwo, is about time for a 60s gif, hopefully frozenlock customized
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In the long term everything will work out fine, but right now blood has to be shed. Too bad if you stepped in just recently, but I think the most valuable lessons to learn are right now right here and not when it's only up uP UP. I think we may hit $65 today, and then a bounce up into the 70s again.
I'd say that for a n00b, much better to step in NOW that in the first half of the year. Let's assume that everybody is buying little by little, first a smallish amount and then a bigger one, spreading their bids... Let's say rationally and not emotionally. If you are in this for the long run much better to enter the market during a bubble deflation and being able to have a decent average entry price, that being caught during the speculative mania phase where price doubles every few days. |
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Yes, at 15,000€ x400GH/s. Not saying is not worth it, but all this pre-order stuff is very tiresome. When the potential profit is huge, then its ok to take a gamble. But when the price is adjusted to its expected ROI (as Avalon did with batch #3, and as I assume punin is doing by selling the "August delivery" at double the price of the "October delivery"), IMO the only way to go is immediate delivery (less than 7 days). Otherwise, we know how the story unfolds: a two weeks delay already throws your ROI expectations to the garbage bin.
Don't forget 24% VAT making it 18600€  Yep, it's a lot of moolah, dough, bones, etc, but theoretically it should pay for itself in a month unless the unfortunate happens and when you get it difficulty goes to the moon - or before you get it. Also if they do make their August delivery you would have 400 Gh/s before KnCMiner delivers their units. Bitfury said it many times in Russian thread: guys get real ASAP! No one miner is going to pay for it self neither in month nor two months. Nobody will sell it that cheap. OK, fair. It's true that nobody sells money-printing machines that pay themselves in one month. But its also true that companies do not ask for free loans to customers. This preorder stuff is a win/win situation for the vendor, he gets the money in advance with the preorders, and then he buys the components to manufacture the unit with its customers money. Plus, at the beginning they realized they had to offer the units very cheap in order to get away with their pre-order model, now they realized people is just plain dumb and they raise the prices while still offering only preorders and not BUY NOW deals. So, the vendors should GET REAL ASAP too. And risk their money and not their customers. In that scenario, its pretty fair that they price the units how they like, which is very likely going to be a high price - like ASICMiner does. |
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Yes, at 15,000€ x400GH/s. Not saying is not worth it, but all this pre-order stuff is very tiresome. When the potential profit is huge, then its ok to take a gamble. But when the price is adjusted to its expected ROI (as Avalon did with batch #3, and as I assume punin is doing by selling the "August delivery" at double the price of the "October delivery"), IMO the only way to go is immediate delivery (less than 7 days). Otherwise, we know how the story unfolds: a two weeks delay already throws your ROI expectations to the garbage bin.
Don't forget 24% VAT making it 18600€ Yep, it's a lot of moolah, dough, bones, etc, but theoretically it should pay for itself in a month unless the unfortunate happens and when you get it difficulty goes to the moon - or before you get it. Also if they do make their August delivery you would have 400 Gh/s before KnCMiner delivers their units. The problem is "theoretically". When you buy a machine TODAY that you will receive TOMORROW, then you can estimate your ROI and take your decision, as per ASICMiner offer. So, if your 400GH/s unit was to arrive tomorrow, you could say "I would achieve ROI in 30 days at constant difficulty, that means that I'll b/e (in BTC) for sure and I'll probably have a nice ROI", and you buy. When the ROI would be one month "at current and constant difficulty", but the delivery is *expected* for August, then you're again repeating the same old pre-order pattern. You buy because you *hope* to receive the machine in the advertised timeframe, and then you have to face delay after delay. Let's remember that NO ASIC VENDOR has EVER honored a deadline, apart from ASICMiner - but that's different, because they had the products in stock. Let's say that no pre-order ASIC vendor has EVER honored a single deadline. We have a very good example of how the "unit is priced higher because ROI expectation is higher" strategy played out. Avalon batch #3. Yeah, if we had received the unit when it was supposed to arrive (early May), the price was spot on. But 3/4 weeks later, it was already a bad investment for its customers. This is quite similar: if the unit really arrives in August, then 15,000€ is a fair price. But, what if it arrives in mid September? No CC payment allowed, so no way to process a chargeback. You need to have faith on the vendor's honesty if you request a refund. All this is kind of fucked up for me, all this "gambling" is getting very tiresome, at the end most of miners are fucked and losing money. |
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You seem to forget that the so called bubble crash only happened because MTGOX couldn't handle all the traffic!!! Maybe the price would have gone up a lot higher otherwise.
I strongly disagree. The bubble popped just because all bubbles pop (otherwise it wouldn't have been a bubble in the first instance), and during the last week before the crash Bitcoin entered on a crazy parabolic growth that would have led to a 100% increase in price every week. That's unsustainable, you don't have to look for "external reasons" like MtGox incompetence, that kind of growth is a crash indicator because that's how market psychology works. People sees their money doubling every 5 days, they get hyper-emotional, as soon as a deep crash happens for "natural reasons" (people selling to realize their profits) the herd panics and sell en mass, triggering the bubble burst. This is what happens over and over with all bubbles, you do not need to look for any "rational" reasons because the market is irrational. the week before the crash you could withdraw from Gox. there wasn't no parabolic increase. it was just the normal recovery from the last bubble bursting. frankly you're point doesn't support your op any longer either. your argument about the bubble leads me to believe that the floor is 80 This is still the same crash from $266, there's only been one crash so far this year and we're still only partially through it. lol at you thinking you can predict the market with any certainty. that crash subsided. i'm talking about the crash that happened when they pulled withdrawals at gox. you're just pandering misinformation/propaganda to suit your agenda. you're both high on meth with your conspiracy theories about a parabolic curve occuring in the market. again, this is a free market, it won't follow a curve. so what is the mitigating factor in the market? it s not some crash that happened half a year ago, its fucktards like you who keep running their mouth saying the markets gonna crash or the price is gonnna go up. you have no idea just how many sheep their are out there reading and buying/selling on impulse. There is no conspiracy. Do you know what parabolic growth means? Its the type of growth we had just before the bubble popped on April, 10th. There's nothing to conspire, that is a cold hard fact. |
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