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221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 03, 2022, 06:51:40 PM
#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

There is an idea I have entertained, but have been too busy to try much of it.  Certain nodes will chew through liquidity like water... WOS for example.  So I can open a king sized channel... set fees to whatever will more than cover the two tx fees.  And then close with a profit, rinse lather, repeat.

But that feels dirty.  Not because of fees, but because of settling on the main chain over and over.  Defeats the purpose somewhat.  I think the protpcpl is where the channel balancing problems may be best addressed...  but I am not sure exactly how.  There is no reason though that we should not be able to see channels be drained and filled over and over.  Still thinking about it.
222  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: September 03, 2022, 06:39:30 PM
maybe I should have started it that way.

No pain, no gain. Wink
It actually took longer to prune than it did to download in the first place... But all done now <60GB.

I have been thinking a lot about Monero's scaling future recently.  It is an interesting potential problem.  And unique, I think.
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2022, 04:43:18 PM

So far 2x has worked because of the pace of mass adoption. Judging by some metrics that can be found in glassnode, there is way more than 2x increase of demand each year. The last 10 months were an exception of course, but this can't invalidate the channel. At least not yet. May be after the next halving this will be confirmed. But I have some hope that it won't. The reason is that the invalidation of this model would mean that the demand is losing pace because of the high levels of mass adoption, say above 75%. However, this is not the case. I doubt that more than 5% of the world population holds BTC. So,  there is still plenty of room for growth. The current crisis has other origins and it is a matter of several months to 2 years max to end. My expectations are that in 1 year max BTC will return to the lower line of the 2x channel. After the halving I hope BTC will enter it and score a new ATH > 100K.

I agree with your post in general.  But one of my points still stands.  This chart does not just hinge on the value and adoption of bitcoin, but also the strength of the USD.

Things going on with the dollar can obliterate this channel in either direction.  You could make a case that BTC trying to exit the bottom of the channel now has corresponded fairly exactly with the switch of the FED to raising interest rates and thereby strengthening the dollar, which is making the charts of most other liquid assets do exactly what BTC is doing.  What the FED seems to be trying to do is counteract the effects of inflation they caused by so much money creation over the recent term.  But this is a losing battle, and obviously there may (will in my opinion) come a point when the value of BTC/USD explodes through the top of that channel like an active volcano (ES reference intended).
224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2022, 01:08:19 PM
"2x per year" trend seems invalidated. Oh well. It's still growing.


Can't you just shift it to some other convenient exponential variant?  How about 1.8x hahahaha.. and then later 1.5x.. but then many of us likely appreciate that  many new adoption curves (to the extent that prices are reflected therein) would likely have some kind of a curve rather than straight line, no?


As I see it one of the main problems with all the "models" *and* interpretation/expectation of models is they tend to be biased to various schelling points and oversimplification of formulas:

2x per year (has never actually happened exactly, right?)
The market cap of gold (why?),
Stock to flow (as if the only thing that matters is supply)
Some proprietary log curve or two (yeah... because it's a little complicated this simple formula will be righter!)
And my fav so far:  100k by the end of December! (TWO schelling points in one!)
Supercycle! (just picking on myself... based on greed, and sort of an anti-model really.)

Oh, and there is one more (for THIS list)... but this one is part of the holy choirbook, so people might not like to call it a broken model "The four year cycle".  This one is at least supported by some fairly strong design forces.  But it still only takes into account a limited number of extremely important things.  Ignoring completely things like the price of electricity, the proliferation of mining, the reaction of governments, and so on.  And I have to also point out that it has nothing to do with "four years" but we humans like to call it something we can easily relate to.

And ALL OF THIS exists in the extremely long shadow of the world macroeconomic condition and the strength of the worlds unit of account, the US DOLLAR.

Whatever your model... it will be instantly distorted by what happens with the mighty $$$.  And the price of important commodities like food and power in THAT asset.

And while we are on THAT topic... Food and Power.  We are currently watching an effort unfold by supragovernmental forces to take control of the food supply and energy creation in The Ukraine, The Netherlands, The Canada (I don't see why .ca can't have an article too!), The New Zealand, and so on.

In my opinion... gone are the simple days when we could predict shit, really. Wink  But Bitcoin is still the best thing going for value storage, and most likely growth depending on your time horizon.

Have a nice Friday WO!
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2022, 11:11:57 PM

Back in the days there were hardly any Bitcoin news outlets or youtube channels., and surely no Bitcoin stuff in the MSM ..

If you wanted to know what was going on in the community, you needed to come here...  And for me, within bitcointalk the WO was the most lively thread.  Many users.. and always something happening.. up to this day.  

I'm thankful for this place and all the interesting and funny people sharing their time and knowledge here!  

If Bitcoin succeeds the way we all imagine, this is just the beginning...  this thread will probably still be here, when we are all gone... with new people coming and going like it has always been for almost 10 years now


Have a great 1st Sep fellow WOers

I could see it early on.  An electronic money.  Sort of like gold in Everquest.  Pretty cool you can just send it over the internet like an email.  I bet this thing has a future!

I seriously had NO idea...  If only.

226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2022, 01:36:37 AM
The below is EXTREMELY merit worthy.  Therefore I have extremely merited it.

Of course we are the literal choir here...  I mean seriously. If there was a choir for the Church of the Corn it would NOT be twitter.  I would not be the devs, or the miners, or El Salvador, or the podcasters.

It would be bitcointalk.org, and more specifically this thread.

Can I get a witness?

@robustus
Bitcoin is up 200,000% in the past 10yrs. To hold it for that period, you had to:

- Not sell a 10-bagger (usually a top career investment for people)

- Not sell a 100-bagger (prob life changing)

- Not fall for a scam

- Not get hacked

... 1/
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564676713174519809?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
2/
 
- Not have your coins on one of the 50% of exchanges that ended catastrophically before 2015

- Not trade-in your BTC gains from the 2011 bull run for gold in 2012 (worst trade in human history?)

- Not think you "missed the bus" in 2010/11
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564676810373308421?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
3/

- Not have your coins in one of the many early "web wallet" services that ended catastrophically

- Not have your coins in some legit biz/service that turned into a ponzi due to mismanagement

- Not forget about your coins, forget your wallet pw, lose your keys
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564676926966534144?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
4/

- Not *actually* be "in it only for the tech", causing you to spend 80k BTC on pizza in 2010, hodling nothing

- Not get bogged down in interpretation of Mises Regression Theorem, causing you to not buy BTC despite being active on bitcointalk while Satoshi was still posting
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564677167241363457?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
5/

- Not listen to media
- Not listen to academia
- Not listen to politicians
- Not listen to financial "experts"
- Not listen to (probably) your friends & family
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564677260988260352?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
6/

- Not fall for "blockchain not bitcoin"

- Not eschew BTC (despite being a gold bug) because you wrote a book about CBDCs & decided that was really the interesting thing here
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564677374775533568?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
7/

- Not freak out during the 2016/17 fork wars and sell all your coins because you misunderstood Nakamoto consensus and/or social scalability

- Not get chopped up trying to trade the airdrop with your whole stack
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564677501141622784?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
8/

- Not fork off to BCH

- Not catch the CSW mind-virus (is it literally a virus? only explanation, really) and fork off to BSV

- Not rage quit over something about the nature of BTC you didn't understand
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564677647719927811?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
9/

- Not decide to pack it all in and go work for an enterprise blockchain company

- Not get depressed & sell during one of the 4 bears when BTC was down 80%+ for months and just sat there

- Not need the money to cover life expenses
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564677779899179008?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
10/

- Not overtrade and get nailed by an ugly tax situation

- Not fall into thinking you're a great trader and TA is everything

- Not fall for one of the thousands of altcoins that went to zero

- Not do something dumb with your key setup and burn your coins
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564677878758899712?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA


@robustus
11/

- Not throw your old computer in the dump or forget the pw to your encrypted USB drive

- Not be on leverage during the covid crash

- Not give your BTC to an unscrupulous crypto lender

...the list could go on...

Be careful out there

<end>
https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1564678036129284099?s=21&t=9b-zdmyQh-MAA3xQ_5SuvA



227  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: August 29, 2022, 09:47:43 PM
Tried to plug a USB drive into my computer today and hit the "reset button" lol.

I think LMDB was resizing or something during then so it hosed my Monero database.

Woops.  Guess what!  You gotta delete and download the whole thing again dummy.

But then, you know what?  The latest version of monerod?  Pretty dang fast.  I got to 92% in just a few hours.  Now I am still almost a year behind so I figure it's gonna take a little while, still.  But hey.  This is definitely an improvement over the last time I did this when it took quite a bit longer, I think! I figure I will prune it when it's done... maybe I should have started it that way.
228  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 28, 2022, 02:10:13 AM
Man Montero REALLY is stuck at this range in XMR/BTC.  But it is fighting pretty hard it seems to me...




Bitcoin getting knocked around... but Montango holding up fairly nicely in BTC terms.  Not as true of many other alts.
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2022, 01:50:06 AM
230  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2022, 12:03:25 AM
Is it WAR Observer or Wall Observer here ?

 Well for those native Japanese speakers among us, it could go either way.

edit: https://youtu.be/F4MsJHn-lRA?t=162 leery

Now I know it is not an issue with pronunciation, but rather of hearing.

Huh.

Somethin.
231  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2022, 01:32:19 AM
(namely Doggie coin)



232  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2022, 12:41:46 AM
the evening wall report





closing out the legacy week with another decline...bitcoin falls 10% in a sharp selloff
down 15% on the week and currently trading near $20.9kish

steady at the helm lads

dyor

4h


D

stronghands


I would merit this post, but I am now way too poor to do so.


here you go

Well fuck.  You check mated me.  Now I have to merit you both... again.
233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2022, 12:19:49 AM
the evening wall report





closing out the legacy week with another decline...bitcoin falls 10% in a sharp selloff
down 15% on the week and currently trading near $20.9kish

steady at the helm lads

dyor

4h


D

stronghands


I would merit this post, but I am now way too poor to do so.
234  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2022, 12:28:50 PM


My first job in the 80s was BK...

Did your burgers look like the advertisement, or the actual whopper?



Somewhere in between.  We made them well.  But yeah.  The picture always looked better.
235  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2022, 12:20:37 AM
I was once going camping for a weekend so decided to grab enough burger King to last the weekend but didn't want it to get all soggy in the cooler like they do.

So I told the counter person to give me 10 Whoppers unmade and she said I can't do that.

After a fruitless argument I told her to get the manager.

The manager said the same thing and no amount of explaining it didn't matter if it was made or not i'm buyying the same thing.

The manager also refused to budge until I said "I WANT IT MY WAY!".

The manager acquiesced.

True story, glad I remembered that catch phrase.

Whoppers on a bonfire were damn good. Cheesy


My first job in the 80s was BK.  The manager, a hot tempered Persian "gentleman" was teaching me how to use the broiler.  The broiler is something you could teach a monkey to use.  Here is the basic idea.  It is a stainless steel conveyor belt that runs through a gas powered grill.  You put frozen burger patties on the receiving side, and they come out the other side perfectly "flame broiled".  Boom.  You then hand them off to the next monkey who puts them in a bun with mayo, ketchup, 4 pickle slices, lettuce, tomato and onion (often cheese).  OR, as you mentioned, whatever way "Have it your way" means.  Maybe robots do all this now, but in the 80s this is how it worked.  Also, I really liked the chicken sandwiches, which you fried in the french fry grease.  Oh my God.  I ate so many of those delicious things right out of the fryer.   But that is a different story.

So, he put the burgers in the broiler and said, "When these come out, you will see they are perfect, and THEN I want you to put some RIGHT in exactly the same way!"

But here is the catch.  I was, am am an asshole... and there was a dial on the side of the "broiler" that had a marking.  It was obvious what this dial did.  It changed the speed of the conveyor belt.

While he was loading up his patties I turned the dial to all the way clockwise.  

Whee!

We stood there a few moments waiting for the perfect flame broiled patties and making simple conversation... me sounding like the average 15 year old, and him sounding angry that he had ended up a Burger King manager in middle age standing there training some privileged American 15 year old.  But, he was trying to sound happy I guess.

Then his patties started to emerge from the 'broiler'. And as he had instructed me, as soon as his "perfect" burgers were exiting the broiler, I went and loaded up my 4 or so patties.  But on the way back I very subtly turned the dial back to the carefully placed mark (in sharpie) on the controls.

"WAIT!  Something is very wrong!", he exclaimed,  "Do not put your burgers on here yet!"

"I already have, sir!  I am sorry."

"Damn! OK, OK!  Well... you have most certainly ruined 4 more patties, but we will wait and see." he conceded.  

He was looking down with his face all scrunched up at four red, droopy unfrozen patties, not really cooked at all, but melted and falling down between the links of the conveyor.  He hastily picked themn off the belt throwing them into an empty Whopper box, and then came back to the feeding end of the machine.  I saw him glance at the dials... all properly set to their places - marked with permanent ink. Then  he quickly looked at the patties I had placed on the steel conveyor, but they were already too far into the works of the thing to be rescued.  

"Tsk. tsk. tsk, probably more patties wasted... something is wrong here... but we will see".

We did not make much conversation this time.  He was done trying to be nice to some 15 year old brat (and rightfully so).

After a few moments, my burgers emerged.  Perfect.  Brown.  Glistening.  I have to admit... the sharpie mark had been placed exactly correctly!

The managers eyebrows slowly raised to ridiculous heights.  "Well, good!", he said, "I guess something was just momentarily wrong.", and then he went back to load up the broiler with burgers one more time. I think he crammed six in, perhaps to make up for the loss of the first four.

He was too engrossed in making them fit perfectly to notice that I strafed slightly right and quickly & subtly turned the dial back to it's clockwise apex again.

Then... I only had to wait another 3 minutes or so for the coup de grāce.  I have to say... to this day the memory of it is glorious.
_____________________________________________

I know, I know... I was an asshole.  This guy though.  He was the terror of so many 15 year olds... a sad and angry man.  He ended up being arrested for pulling a handgun on people in the dining area who had broken a salt shaker.

And still, to this day I wonder if I was at least in part responsible for their terror...

The other stories I could tell... about the orange juices.. or the pitcher of eggs and the walk in freezer.  

Poor guy.  

If there is a heaven ... and our actions are taken into any account whatsoever... these things are not actions in the plus column for old cAPS.



PS.  I love your idea!  Frankly Burger King is SO under rated!!!  Maiking them over a campfire?  As long as you have the dial set right, they would be amazing! 
236  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2022, 05:59:28 PM
The real SHIT Coin .

In South Korea University ( Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST)) there is a toilet that converts human waste into energy and rewards people with cryptocurrency Ggool.


"An  average person defecates about 500g a day, which can be converted to 50 litres of methane gas, the environmental engineer said. This gas can generate 0.5kWh of electricity or be used to drive a car for about 1.2km (0.75 miles)." Source

Ggool is really what a shit Coin is!!!

https://decrypt.co/75559/the-real-shitcoin-south-korean-toilet-turns-faeces-into-digital-currency

Ironically the only shitcoin that actually has value which is backed by something.

He said "backed"  hehh heh... huh. hehh.
237  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2022, 12:45:23 PM
One of best use case of Augmented Reality I have seen so far. HoloLamp company has created a device that will help you view dishes listed in Restaurant menue in 3D form via AR interface. This will gives you fair idea of how food looks like and serving size.

https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/1559700905045491713?t=a05wNU0h9DkWghA00f5WyA&s=19

/crochety old man mode [on]

 Nice.  Soon enough we wont even need an imagination.




 I'll have this thing you call "surreal hamburger with frenchified fries".

 This is really great tech for people who have never seen a hamburger, sushi and perhaps tech since the 19th century.


 

I am not impressed until it can rise out of the table as it is 3d printed, including the plate.
238  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2022, 03:27:43 AM
By the way.  While you are all dithering over the beginning of the supercycle(tm)...

What I am doing:



No amount of bitcoin... no politics... no drug... none of it compares to just being where you are.

This kayak cost me 0.00937 BTC.  And is worth more than all I have, at least in a way...

Hope you are all well, here at the end of the world Wink
239  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2022, 03:25:38 AM
fuck off buddy

He is observing the price going UP...

I do not see the problem?
240  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 15, 2022, 04:40:33 PM

https://twitter.com/AurelienOhayon/status/1558665777510813697?t=51sGy4p07jg9J7pEL-up9w&s=19

here's another picture sighting the bullrun on the 5th times about bitcoin price, but i think we are getting closer than as expected.

That AurelienOhayon dude makes me look like a bigger bear than Proudhon.  He has been a fairly good reverse indicator on the short time frame, lol.
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