Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

uliepooie the WE are is a humanity as one wholeness.. but some are not part of our humanity so.. i dunno ? 



Will the power-hungry lives be spared. Or will their thrones become electric chairs? See the non-believers by the path. Non-believers by the path..


The sinners' world is full of hate and copy paste

[cAPSLOCK]

"2x per year" trend seems invalidated. Oh well. It's still growing.

Can't you just shift it to some other convenient exponential variant?  How about 1.8x hahahaha.. and then later 1.5x.. but then many of us likely appreciate that  many new adoption curves (to the extent that prices are reflected therein) would likely have some kind of a curve rather than straight line, no?

As I see it one of the main problems with all the "models" *and* interpretation/expectation of models is they tend to be biased to various schelling points and oversimplification of formulas:

2x per year (has never actually happened exactly, right?)
The market cap of gold (why?),
Stock to flow (as if the only thing that matters is supply)
Some proprietary log curve or two (yeah... because it's a little complicated this simple formula will be righter!)
And my fav so far:  100k by the end of December! (TWO schelling points in one!)
Supercycle! (just picking on myself... based on greed, and sort of an anti-model really.)

Oh, and there is one more (for THIS list)... but this one is part of the holy choirbook, so people might not like to call it a broken model "The four year cycle".  This one is at least supported by some fairly strong design forces.  But it still only takes into account a limited number of extremely important things.  Ignoring completely things like the price of electricity, the proliferation of mining, the reaction of governments, and so on.  And I have to also point out that it has nothing to do with "four years" but we humans like to call it something we can easily relate to.

And ALL OF THIS exists in the extremely long shadow of the world macroeconomic condition and the strength of the worlds unit of account, the US DOLLAR.

Whatever your model... it will be instantly distorted by what happens with the mighty $$$.  And the price of important commodities like food and power in THAT asset.

And while we are on THAT topic... Food and Power.  We are currently watching an effort unfold by supragovernmental forces to take control of the food supply and energy creation in The Ukraine, The Netherlands, The Canada (I don't see why .ca can't have an article too!), The New Zealand, and so on.

In my opinion... gone are the simple days when we could predict shit, really.   But Bitcoin is still the best thing going for value storage, and most likely growth depending on your time horizon.

Have a nice Friday WO!

[eXPHorizon]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Over Time

"The purchasing power of a currency is the amount of goods and services that can be bought with one unit of the currency."Source

The purchasing power of USD has gone down over years due to printing of more and more USD currency notes. The decreasing purchasing power of USD can be seen from the fact that 1 USD in 1913 is equal to 26 USD in 2020.
In 1933, 10 beer bottles can be bought with 1 USD and in 2020 you can buy just a cup of coffee with 1 USD.
In 2022,
One can easily correlate his local currency with this USD decreasing purchasing power since the phenomena is same for all fiat currency. For example, in my country I can buy 1 large bread for 40 Pakistani Rupee 10 years ago, today its price is 120 Pakistani Rupee.
Only between 1929-1933 the purchasing power of USD increases due to deflation and reduction in new currency supply by 31%.
As governments print more and more currency notes without any barrier the purchasing power of currency is deemed to go down.



Image and info source

 In 1933, the manufacture, importation and sale of alcohol was still forbidden in the USA and had been for 13 years.  It would have taken many years for the brewing industry to recover after that so the price of illegal beer in that year can't be used to indicate the results of inflation today.  Also, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

The ban was enforced from 1920 to 1933. I can't say whether stats mentioned about beer are correct or not but there is a consent that purchasing power of every currency including US dollar has gone down over time because of uncontrolled printing of money.
If you don't like beer example, I have given you example of bread also. It was 40 Pakistani Rupees ten years back and from same store I am buying it on 120 Pakistani Rupee right now.
There are many such examples that can prove the decreasing purchasing of a currency over time.


Naan (a type of bread commonly used during breakfast, lunch n dinner in Pakistan) price was 2 Pakistani Rupee in 2000 now 20 Pakistani Rupee.

Image source

 It's not that I don't believe you; there's no doubt that the sovereign currencies of every country have seen their purchasing power diminish over the years - some more than others.  My point was that selecting one specific product to demonstrate inflationary effects will not give an accurate depiction (while also trying to inject some humour into the board).  For example, it cost ~$2300 (tax included (which was 7%)) for my first ever home computer nearly 40 years ago.  It was a Commodore 64 with a 13" colour monitor and a 5.25" external floppy drive.  The latest computer I bought cost me ~$1500 (tax included (which is now 13%) and electronics disposal fee(which is some bullshit)) and even though it's a laptop, it has a much larger screen with much higher resolution and colour depth, 256 times the memory, infinitely more internal storage, a cool lighted RGB keyboard and as an added bonus, it conforms to the MIL-STD-810H spec.  The dollar's purchasing power for computing devices seems to have increased!

[348Judah]

I couldn't see sh!t. Sry.Not Sry!      

You could have just resize the picture when making your quote

[Hueristic]

 

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[savetherainforest]

Will the power-hungry lives be spared. Or will their thrones become electric chairs? See the non-believers by the path. Non-believers by the path..

I've been spiraling trough a black hole of links on youtube about : "How to prepare for WW3?"        

And I was thinking: And they think they can spent their BTCiTcoin in the next few years. LOL! They will lose everything trying to afford food & energy bills.         

Most people will have to hold BTCiTcoin for at least another 10 years till they can spend anything.       

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotATether]

In 1933, the manufacture, importation and sale of alcohol was still forbidden in the USA and had been for 13 years.  It would have taken many years for the brewing industry to recover after that so the price of illegal beer in that year can't be used to indicate the results of inflation today.  Also, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

What kind of bastard would fight over a beer??

[ivomm]

"2x per year" trend seems invalidated. Oh well. It's still growing.

Can't you just shift it to some other convenient exponential variant?  How about 1.8x hahahaha.. and then later 1.5x.. but then many of us likely appreciate that  many new adoption curves (to the extent that prices are reflected therein) would likely have some kind of a curve rather than straight line, no?

As I see it one of the main problems with all the "models" *and* interpretation/expectation of models is they tend to be biased to various schelling points and oversimplification of formulas:

2x per year (has never actually happened exactly, right?)
The market cap of gold (why?),
Stock to flow (as if the only thing that matters is supply)
Some proprietary log curve or two (yeah... because it's a little complicated this simple formula will be righter!)
And my fav so far:  100k by the end of December! (TWO schelling points in one!)
Supercycle! (just picking on myself... based on greed, and sort of an anti-model really.)

Oh, and there is one more (for THIS list)... but this one is part of the holy choirbook, so people might not like to call it a broken model "The four year cycle".  This one is at least supported by some fairly strong design forces.  But it still only takes into account a limited number of extremely important things.  Ignoring completely things like the price of electricity, the proliferation of mining, the reaction of governments, and so on.  And I have to also point out that it has nothing to do with "four years" but we humans like to call it something we can easily relate to.

And ALL OF THIS exists in the extremely long shadow of the world macroeconomic condition and the strength of the worlds unit of account, the US DOLLAR.

Whatever your model... it will be instantly distorted by what happens with the mighty $$$.  And the price of important commodities like food and power in THAT asset.

And while we are on THAT topic... Food and Power.  We are currently watching an effort unfold by supragovernmental forces to take control of the food supply and energy creation in The Ukraine, The Netherlands, The Canada (I don't see why .ca can't have an article too!), The New Zealand, and so on.

In my opinion... gone are the simple days when we could predict shit, really.   But Bitcoin is still the best thing going for value storage, and most likely growth depending on your time horizon.

Have a nice Friday WO!

So far 2x has worked because of the pace of mass adoption. Judging by some metrics that can be found in glassnode, there is way more than 2x increase of demand each year. The last 10 months were an exception of course, but this can't invalidate the channel. At least not yet. May be after the next halving this will be confirmed. But I have some hope that it won't. The reason is that the invalidation of this model would mean that the demand is losing pace because of the high levels of mass adoption, say above 75%. However, this is not the case. I doubt that more than 5% of the world population holds BTC. So,  there is still plenty of room for growth. The current crisis has other origins and it is a matter of several months to 2 years max to end. My expectations are that in 1 year max BTC will return to the lower line of the 2x channel. After the halving I hope BTC will enter it and score a new ATH > 100K.

[Hamza2424]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagEDU/status/1565678715832614912?t=SxKkiAj6RtM2szP3gDrtEg&s=19


The exponential Growth od the technologies shows a Similar boom as per the adoption of the BTC Expect the unexpected People use to adopt the New technologies by a gap of tim.e

[vapourminer]

lso, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

What kind of bastard would fight over a beer??

i used to frequent bars where people went specifically TO fight over beer.

man i am glad i dont go to those bars anymore.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phil_S]

Can't you just shift it to some other convenient exponential variant?  How about 1.8x hahahaha.. and then later 1.5x..

Yeah, I'll try something like 1.7x but not until it goes up first, and crosses 25600 at least...

I don't want to nudge it every week if keeps going down/sideways.

[Toxic2040]

"2x per year" trend seems invalidated. Oh well. It's still growing.

Can't you just shift it to some other convenient exponential variant?  How about 1.8x hahahaha.. and then later 1.5x.. but then many of us likely appreciate that  many new adoption curves (to the extent that prices are reflected therein) would likely have some kind of a curve rather than straight line, no?

As I see it one of the main problems with all the "models" *and* interpretation/expectation of models is they tend to be biased to various schelling points and oversimplification of formulas:

2x per year (has never actually happened exactly, right?)
The market cap of gold (why?),
Stock to flow (as if the only thing that matters is supply)
Some proprietary log curve or two (yeah... because it's a little complicated this simple formula will be righter!)
And my fav so far:  100k by the end of December! (TWO schelling points in one!)
Supercycle! (just picking on myself... based on greed, and sort of an anti-model really.)

Oh, and there is one more (for THIS list)... but this one is part of the holy choirbook, so people might not like to call it a broken model "The four year cycle".  This one is at least supported by some fairly strong design forces.  But it still only takes into account a limited number of extremely important things.  Ignoring completely things like the price of electricity, the proliferation of mining, the reaction of governments, and so on.  And I have to also point out that it has nothing to do with "four years" but we humans like to call it something we can easily relate to.

And ALL OF THIS exists in the extremely long shadow of the world macroeconomic condition and the strength of the worlds unit of account, the US DOLLAR.

Whatever your model... it will be instantly distorted by what happens with the mighty $$$.  And the price of important commodities like food and power in THAT asset.

And while we are on THAT topic... Food and Power.  We are currently watching an effort unfold by supragovernmental forces to take control of the food supply and energy creation in The Ukraine, The Netherlands, The Canada (I don't see why .ca can't have an article too!), The New Zealand, and so on.

In my opinion... gone are the simple days when we could predict shit, really.   But Bitcoin is still the best thing going for value storage, and most likely growth depending on your time horizon.

Have a nice Friday WO!

So far 2x has worked because of the pace of mass adoption. Judging by some metrics that can be found in glassnode, there is way more than 2x increase of demand each year. The last 10 months were an exception of course, but this can't invalidate the channel. At least not yet. May be after the next halving this will be confirmed. But I have some hope that it won't. The reason is that the invalidation of this model would mean that the demand is losing pace because of the high levels of mass adoption, say above 75%. However, this is not the case. I doubt that more than 5% of the world population holds BTC. So,  there is still plenty of room for growth. The current crisis has other origins and it is a matter of several months to 2 years max to end. My expectations are that in 1 year max BTC will return to the lower line of the 2x channel. After the halving I hope BTC will enter it and score a new ATH > 100K.

-------










Friday morning goobly gook...test on Monday   

listed in order of personal preference

'A SOMA forcast is straight out of ones ass'
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0


'A naive forecast is one in which the forecast for a given period is simply equal to the value observed in the previous period.'
https://www.statology.org/naive-forecast-excel/

'Time series datasets are the most widely generated and used kind of data in any business. They are used both in understanding the past and predicting the future.'
https://towardsdatascience.com/time-series-forecasting-from-naive-to-arima-and-beyond-ef133c485f94

'Triple Exponential Smoothing method models the next time step as an exponentially weighted linear function of observations at prior time steps, taking trends and seasonality into account.'
https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting-methods-in-python-cheat-sheet/

Code:

# HWES example
from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters import ExponentialSmoothing
from random import random
# contrived dataset
data = [x + random() for x in range(1, 100)]
# fit model
model = ExponentialSmoothing(data)
model_fit = model.fit()
# make prediction
yhat = model_fit.predict(len(data), len(data))
print(yhat)

---------

gm guy says gm

[cAPSLOCK]

So far 2x has worked because of the pace of mass adoption. Judging by some metrics that can be found in glassnode, there is way more than 2x increase of demand each year. The last 10 months were an exception of course, but this can't invalidate the channel. At least not yet. May be after the next halving this will be confirmed. But I have some hope that it won't. The reason is that the invalidation of this model would mean that the demand is losing pace because of the high levels of mass adoption, say above 75%. However, this is not the case. I doubt that more than 5% of the world population holds BTC. So,  there is still plenty of room for growth. The current crisis has other origins and it is a matter of several months to 2 years max to end. My expectations are that in 1 year max BTC will return to the lower line of the 2x channel. After the halving I hope BTC will enter it and score a new ATH > 100K.

I agree with your post in general.  But one of my points still stands.  This chart does not just hinge on the value and adoption of bitcoin, but also the strength of the USD.

Things going on with the dollar can obliterate this channel in either direction.  You could make a case that BTC trying to exit the bottom of the channel now has corresponded fairly exactly with the switch of the FED to raising interest rates and thereby strengthening the dollar, which is making the charts of most other liquid assets do exactly what BTC is doing.  What the FED seems to be trying to do is counteract the effects of inflation they caused by so much money creation over the recent term.  But this is a losing battle, and obviously there may (will in my opinion) come a point when the value of BTC/USD explodes through the top of that channel like an active volcano (ES reference intended).

[Hueristic]

In 1933, the manufacture, importation and sale of alcohol was still forbidden in the USA and had been for 13 years.  It would have taken many years for the brewing industry to recover after that so the price of illegal beer in that year can't be used to indicate the results of inflation today.  Also, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

What kind of bastard would fight over a beer??

[HI-TEC99]

lso, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

What kind of bastard would fight over a beer??

i used to frequent bars where people went specifically TO fight over beer.

man i am glad i dont go to those bars anymore.

Did they sell FUDD beer in those bars?



They sell it at the The Beer -N- Brawl in Spittle County.