So basically, I talk about that an item that has 93% speculative purposes have no advantage over an item with 100% speculative purposes. especially since this 7% appeared in the last 50-100 years, and without it (i.e. also 100% speculative purposes) it held value for 2,500 years.

Gold is bad for use in jewelry. In electronics it has been used for the last 50 years and only 7% of the gold ends up there and in your opinion this has given it value for the last 2500 years? Being a poor raw material for jewelry made it the strongest asset of the last 2,500 years? NO! gold's use cases does not determine its value. They're like oregano on pizza. You're full of pizza, not oregano.The desire to have something expensive and rare that holds value. This makes people want to have gold. This gives it value. It's not me who ignores reality. You are the one who claims that gold is valued by using it in electronics, which defies logic, and you do it only to justify your erroneous views.

gold previously had the function of money, but this was taken away by central banks. Even this did not destroy gold as an great asset

"desire to have something expensive and rare that holds value" Bitcoin has all these characteristics

So you have no argument for this. You say that crypto has no value because it cannot be used (so it have only speculative value and must fall to zero), and on the other hand you see gold, which has held value for 2,500 years only because it holds value (certainly not because of its use in electronics, which accounts for 7% of its use).

And not thanks to jewelry, because you have to admit that gold is terrible as a material for making jewelry. It is soft and deforms quickly, and other cheaper metals are not aesthetically different from gold, and even if it were, it would be enough to gold-plate the jewelry.

The gold example disproves your claim and yet you refuse to counter-argument.

Then refer to my argument. Somehow it passed unvetoed. You only wrote that we ignore your arguments, while you did not address most of them, including mine.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5467415.msg62873484#msg62873484

This is my post. Based on the data provided - explain to me, how gold keeps its value for 2500 years ...

When I read your thread, I immediately thought that it would be too easy to break. Certainly not for an ordinary person, but still: "Computer programs used for brute force attacks can check anywhere from 10,000 to 1 billion passwords per second.", but i did some calculations and:

number of combinations - 24! (24 x 23 x 22 x 21 x ... x 3 x 2 x 1)

24! = 620,448,401,733,239,439,360,000

Assuming 1 billion tests per second, the correct order will be 100% cracked in 19,631,267,468,771,206 years! half of this time to be 50% sure. I think its secured enough! At least to my knowledge

I can give you 20 reasons why you're wrong, but I don't want to spend an hour of my life on it. So I will start with the first one and maybe it will be enough for you, if not, then know that there is a whole army of arguments behind me.




only 7% of the gold supply goes to real applications and these applications were mostly invented in the last 100 years (electronics).  Before this, the only usefulness of gold was the desire to have gold. Using it in jewelry is also nothing more than a "desire to have gold", because gold does not have aesthetic values ​​that other cheaper metals do not have. Tombac worth 1% of the price looks the same on your finger. Gold-plated any metal also. The desire to have gold, something durable, expensive, eternal, desirable, and whats most important - rare - has given it value for thousands of years. Nothing else and definitely not the use in electronics. And bitcoin has all these features and it already have better stock/flow ratio than gold and it will get even better after halving.

unless you believe that gold's entire value is given by 7% of its use and that it is generally a metal we discovered 100 years ago and before that it was worthless.

He was also posting dimond hands right before he sold his bag...
According to his tweets, one of the richest people in the world, CEO of a public company with one of the largest capitalization in the world, first buys bitcoin, then accepts it in Tesla and then does research and finds out that it is not green
then stops accepting payments and then sells the bag XD Is this what the richest person does when making financial decisions? his tweets have little to do with reality.

classic amateur mistake. You see something valued at $8 billion and assume that it must have such a value hidden somewhere. And the more the price increases, the greater the hidden value must be, right? It's just strange that it can't be proven tangibly, no one uses this crap, no one knows whats its for, but it must be there if the valuation is so high, right? Nothing could be further from the truth. The investor's role is to estimate value and potential and buy something whose valuation is below this value. I did this with BNB when it was @ $15 in 2019. I estimated Binance's profits in 2 different ways, the average deflation of the token, returns from various competitions (lauchpads/lauchpools), staking roi, compared it to the Nasdaq P/E and the average dividend on SP500 and I found it cheap so I invested. Try do it with shiba and doge or other 10 000 memecoins lauched in 2023. indicate the advantages that shiba has over 10,000 other meme coins apart from the high valuation.
For me the estimated value of shiba is around $1,000,000 and dogecoin is around $50,000,000 and only because they have some momentum and recognition (people know what it is thanks to 2021 shameful bubble). Which means that shiba is probably overvalued 4,000 times and dogecoin 150 times and therefore they are not worth time and money. Prove me wrong.

I think the approach is different because there is a big difference between promoting a casino and promoting a blockchain. If the casino catches 1 customer who deposits (and lose) several thousand dollars, it gets a return for several weeks of the campaign, and if blockchain catches 1 person in this way, it gets 1 node more - close to none impact of value of project and no return from investment. even if it is 1 more investor, the investor expects profits and can sell at any time, the gambler cannot sell his loss and get some of the money back.

Maybe that's why signatures are mainly paid by casinos and crypto mixers and not by cryptocurrency projects, and those projects that pay for campaigns here on the forum do it in the form of bounty, paying with zero-value tokens mostyl before the ICO.

This thread doesn't convey any value. It is a waste of time for everyone who came here. Saying that you need to have "some indicator" to open/close a position is not useful information. It's like saying that in order to live, you have to remember to breathe.

looking for similar-looking charts in the past is probably the worst possible "indicator"

So all these predictions and models are nothing more than a virus that harms everyone who comes across it (in particular the models presented by BitQuant - with N=0 (N - number of pattern repetitions). They do not convey any real value and only deceive investors. Research shows that a person exposed to "expert opinion" is willing to take much greater risks. So it's safe to say that BitQuant is harming its followers, and probably most of them are people addicted to "hopium". Invested more than they can loose and desperate for hope. Some chart, some formula that will pull them out from under the water and turn a big loss into a profit.

What amuses me the most is that there are thousands of such model specialists. Mathematically, there is no way all of them would miss. So someone hits a grain like a blind hen and suddenly becomes an internet guru - a god with a crystal ball XD "this is the one, who predicted the bottom"

It's not a tether problem and it's hard to describe it as a risk from tether exposure because in this case they will do their job exemplarily - they will maintain a 1:1 ratio to the dollar - what they promise. But in the event that the dollar falls to zero, the question arises - who owns the tether reserves and the profits from their investment. The risk of losses is on our side, so at least part of the profits should be on our side too, but this is probably not the case. I am writing about this because Tether's balance sheet apparently contains around 2% of bitcoin and >5% of non debt assets that will not go to zero with dollar.
But here we are talking about unlikely cases in which tether "behaviour' will be the least of our problems.

About their investment portfolio (if its not faked). It is set relatively safely, as according to their report, 85% is cash or cash substitutes (which in my opinion is enough to never have problems with liquidity.) Why? it is said that 30% of bitcoins are lost. someone died and didn't hand over the keys, someone lost the keys, someone regularly leaves dust on various wallets. I think it's the same with tether. Great proof of this is the busd marketcap, which needed as much as 10 months to drop by 90% after it was announced that busd was going out of business. Tether is twice as old, so the number of lost tokens is probably twice as high. I know it sounds strange, but even if the rest of investments goes to zero, i think 80% in cash is enough to be 100% backed, because during the 8 years of tether's existence, people have been "burning tokens" on a daily basis.

But looking deeper, what "Cash Equivalents" is. They are mostly U.S. Treasury Bills that expire after 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 13 weeks, 17 weeks, 26 weeks, or 52 weeks. So because they have a short expiry period, they are not that susceptible to rate changes. Its not a 20 year bond that can dump 50% in price due to rising interest rates creating temporary paper losses

if they don't lie in their reports, their wallet seems to be safe enough that tether will never have problems maintaining the $1 exchange rate. And here's the big if and the biggest risk. If they don't lie...

Another big risk may be a massive attack by regulators and freezing of funds or them running with our money.

But have you asked yourself why they don't do it if it's such a game changer? Because the average person, when he needs money, goes to work and when he needs relaxation, he plays a computer game. Attempts to explain to him that items obtained in the game can be in the form of NFTs and tranfered on blockcha... (this is where the average person's attention ends and if the game is not already turned on, a negative review on Steam is sent, the money is refunded and another game is purchased).

Moreover, in my opinion, blockchain is used where trust is not enough. That's why bitcoin is a great invention, because storing your life savings in something over which another entity has complete control is not the best solution. However, this is not the case with computer games and computer games items. Steam Community Market where you can trade knives from CSgo is more than a dream come true for an ordinary player and the risk that steam will run away with the knives and leave players without these "valuable skins" is zero. None of them will pay extra 5$ eth transaction fee to be sure his skin is on blackchain and no one will steal it as long as his 12 words are safe.

In 2050-2100, when whole world will be gamified NFT in AAA games will be a must have. Not in 2023-2050.

Impossible to predict. Predictions based on 1 parameter (halving) and ignoring the entire complexity of the world are ridiculous. After a quick look at BitQuant's profile, I can say that the predictions are 100% pure fortune telling. You know what I mean? If you take a handful of sand and throw it on the ground, some out of the millions of grains will start to form patterns (from a mathematical point of view, it is impossible for no pattern to form). BitQuant takes these patterns and makes predictions based on them. Looking at the comparison to the Nasdaq, for example, I had a good laugh. BitQuant provides a pattern with N=0 (number of repetitions of the pattern) as the source of prediction. It happened once, it will probably happen again and on bitcoin XD

Technical analysis doesn't work like that. If you search the Internet for descriptions of well-known AT patterns, e.g. fallwing wedge, you will read something like "A falling wedge stock chart pattern is 74% reliable on an upside breakout of an existing uptrend. When the price breaks through resistance, it has an average 38 % price increase. If the price breaks downwards, it is 71% successful, with an average price decrease of 14%." And based on this, you can make some predictions, instead of drawing in Paint what the chart would look the nicest and what would bring me the best profits and hoping it will happend. Its not analysis.

Its 2200$ on every $1,000,000 and its not so little if you consider you can use this $1,000,000 couple times a week/day. Its risk free if you are the owner of the exchange or if you hold your money on this exchange anyway (you are doing arbitrage trades on other coins, you are marketmaker, or you are an active whale daytrader that temporary does not have open possition).


it was possible to do it manually, but the 30% APY result was achieved by placing orders 24/7 and placing new order fraction of the second after previous order was filled. If you wanted to do it manually for 8 hours a day, the APY drops to 10%. If you add human mistake and human reaction time, it turns out that the APY drops to around what 10-year bonds currently pay and you do all the work for free. In my case, it looked like this: I kept my capital on the exchange and actively traded it, and every time I did not have an open position or some of the capital was free, I launched a bot to get extra yeld.


But these are all details. The main message is that the fact that tether targets the largest users and does not retail to everyone is not proof that there is a "Peg Stability Problem". This article is written to create fud and nothing more.
There are many other risks associated with tether. This one is not worth discussion.

I would go with funding arbitrage strategy. If longs pay shorts, you go short on futures (use as little leverage as possible to make sure you wont be liquidated) and at the same time you buy on spot with the same position size. You are net 0, so you are not exposed to currency risk (as long as you will not get liquidated) but you earn on funding and price spread (very often when there is a big funding there is also big price spread)

You can also compare funding on different exchanges. For example if funding on binance is -1.5% and -0.8% on bybit, you can go long on binance (to get 1.5%) and short on bybit (you pay 0.8%). your position is net zero, but you get 0.7% from funding spread.

They create huge buy wall at 0.9988$ and sell wall at 1.001$. So the price stays in these ranges as long as arbitrageurs keep up with transfers and tether keeps up with transaction processing. And most often it stops in the middle (around $1), because usually in this scenario small investors trade among themselves and only when the sentiment prevails in one direction the price goes to the lower or upper ranges where arbitrageurs earn $0.0012 on every dollar ($12 on every $10,000) or $22 on every $10,000 if they have enough liquidity that they stop the price and it rebounds to the upper band after sentiment changes.

I'll tell you more. I personally had a trading bot that was buing USDT for BUSD as soon as the rate dropped to 0.9999 and selling it as soon as it went to 1.0001 (binance then had a 0 fee policy on currency pairs to BUSD). I didn't need tether, and USD to make money providing liquidity to tether (zero tether KYC fee, no 100k limit). It was possible to get around 30% APY this way.

"as long as ... tether keeps up with transaction processing" - so the larger the arbitrageurs and the fewer of them there are, the greater the chance that tether will work in critical situations. Then there is no situation in which the price of tether on the market temporary drops to $0.98 (flash crash) and tether receives spam from 10,000 small investors and each transfers $1000 that he managed to buy at $0.98 to sell for $1 and earn $20 and tether have to process 10 000 transactions.

It can even go to 10 000 000$ or 50 000 000$ and it probably won't cause the USDT exchange rate to detach from the dollar anyway, because its a penny for binance, huobi, coinbase, kucoin, bybit and several unknown large market makers and arbitrageurs, that will create liquidity for every single smaller trader. Tether will simply cooperate with several large institutions that will create liquidity for smaller players.
Write an e-mail to a sheikh in Abu Dhabi and ask him to sell you 30 liters of fuel for your Opel Corsa. He sells oil by the tonne to companies that then sell it to retailers. Nothing strange here. Tether stays at $1 and will achieve this by being solvent. It doesn't matter whether they decide on wholesale or retail.


Full KYC on exange also means connecting a specific bank account and proving that it belongs to you. All withdrawals can only go to this specific account. So is it possible to transfer usd from 1 exchange to another? yes but only when the bank account of the second exchange is yours (you are the second exchange), or you use will your bank account as an intermediary (making 2 transfers and probably losing 4 business days). Transfering value in USDT takes 5 min.

Oh my friend, you still have a long way to go. Crypto newbie comes to bitcointalk and creates a thread "what to buy to earn", a crypto pro comes and advises him projects like atom because they are old and proven in battle, a veteran with 6 years of experience in crypto, who has been making a living from investing for 7 years, comes and replies "don't buy anything, because 99% will fall to zero and even if you manage to hit that 1%, it will not bring profits adequate to the risk"

In 2019, there were also people like you who proposed investing in EOS, NEM, XLM, IOTA, NEO, ETC for the same reasons. They were all in top 20 CMC. Despite the fact that another 4 years have passed, and in 2019 we were at the bottom of the previous bear market, most of the mentioned projects are still in the red compared to the valuations from 2019 (all of them are in red in sats) and few people seem to remember them. It will be the same with bubbles like an atom (unless it is in the 1% of those that will not die immediately)

https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20190210/

Little advice. a high valuation is a negative parameter when analyzing whether to invest in something or not. As an investor, you are looking for something that has great value and a low price, not something that has a high price and you assume that it must therefore have a high value, so you buy it and hope that the project will change the world, because only then will it justify the current valuation, detached from reality.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208144.msg53299809#msg53299809 - this is how i analize crypto projects before investment.

yep. Thats the case too. FTX will most likely pay back those who are in juristdictions, that care most about investors  (which have more potential for prosecution and issuing arrest warrants). So the US users will probably be paid first.

@OP 10% is most likely what you will get unless there are many people who will give up.