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2421  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 29, 2022, 09:30:52 PM

I am afraid there are many historical examples in which countries clearly understood they were the attackers. Germans will recognise that Hitler attacked Poland. I am not going to dig into Vikings, Mongols, Huns, Romans and others that were perfectly conscious of being on the offensive.

If Axis won WW2, you would only hear narrative about them defending...same as Americans today don't say "we did war crime by dropping
two A-bombs on civilians" but you hear "we did it to prevent loss of life by both USA soldiers and Japan civilians and soldiers"


Also, Romans were spreading democracy and culture to barbarians  Grin

Romans sometimes did use subterfuges, but I think that they kind of saw themselves as a military superpower, without any particularly high reason to invade others - the moral concepts of the time were not about peace or understanding - rather the opposite - so they were absolutely fine with waging aggression. To be honest, most of the times either they invaded others or other would invade - it was a very different world in some ways, states and countries were not as established.

As for the Nazi Germany, the narrative at the time, uncensored by the winners, was effectively conquering the lebensraum on the basis of being a superior race. I think they had a clear idea of what they were doing.

...
Yes, moderators will be made aware of it. You don't need to worry too much though, a couple of your comrades are still not banned despite multiple reports. It looks like someone on the staff has a sweet spot for shitheads like you.
...

I would not worry too much, they really suck at propaganda. That stuff probably works back at home where other views cannot be given and the obvious fakes and misinformation go unchallenged, but here... Please, do not report them, I actually think they are doing a favour to the other side.

Apparently you are in an information bubble, captivated by delusions and an abundance of fakes.
Funny coming from a Kremlin copy-pasta troll.
On this forum, allegations of copy-paste (i.e. plagiarism) are very serious and are punishable by an immediate automatic ban. Can you back up your value judgment with evidence that my content isn't unique, or are you just slandering me?

Some of it has to be unique and made (up) by you certainly. The old Russian propaganda machine cannot have fallen so low as to be producing such a low quality stuff.
2422  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Brands not pulling out of Putin's Russia [list] on: March 29, 2022, 09:18:03 PM

“While theirs blood in the streets”

Ring a bell?

Bet Soros is on it..

Blood in that context of investing means massive low prices, not people's blood. I guess you are making some short of a joke?


Oh no.. You couldn’t be more wrong..

It absolutely means people’s blood.. Human blood..
It’s just been twisted to also mean anytime their are massively low prices, a euphemism, as we live in such soft and non-violent times..


https://www.forbes.com/2009/02/23/contrarian-markets-boeing-personal-finance_investopedia.html?sh=b53c2dcb59a0
Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”

He should know. Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon.”

....

Actual blood in the streets..

When it comes to those like rothschilds and soros, bet your ass they mean actual human blood spilled in the streets..
Not only will they take advantage of spilled blood, they will set up situations for bloodspill just to take advantage of it financially..


These people have no morality..
WAKE UP!

...

The story about the Rothchild and the Napoleonic wars is not an historic fact at all - even if some books mentioned it as such, "blood in the streets" is a phrase that started to be used much later in Wall Street (I seem to recall that it was the Magellan Fund director, Peter Lynch, the one that made it popular) and it is originally unrelated to war or crime when speaking about business.

If your point is that there will be fund managers making money with the war, with COVID and in any other situation by taking advantage of the market, I agree. Buying and selling stocks and other assets is different from retailing and making business that contribute to finance directly the war. For me, there is a significant difference.

Regarding you (oversized) memes and comments on "this bad this not", they are certainly not applicable to me. I do have a clear view on the type of world I want to live in, an rarely make moral judgements.
2423  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Brands not pulling out of Putin's Russia [list] on: March 29, 2022, 11:04:36 AM
Bitcoin didn’t pull out of Russia OH NO!!
Better boycott all cryptocurrencies..

Why are companies supposed to take sides exactly?


They are there for business and to make a profit, why should they mix themselves into this war anyway?

There are demands for American products there while there is a scarcity of them now in the country. It must be an opportunity.
The Chinese products I think are going to be everywhere without having any boycotts because the Chinese are always going to try to do business everywhere even in Afghanistan. It's cheaper and reliable too.

Of course, companies are not there to promote ethical behaviours right? They are there to make a profit for the shareholders and if they have to cover their noses and go over a few dead children it does not matter. Is that what you are saying?

Well, that is perfectly OK, I do not expect the owners or shareholders or CEOs to be honest, but what I am certainly going to do is to hold them responsible to their doings. If they do not take sides, I am certainly going to take sides with their products, because, after all, the ones that has zero obligation to buy from them is us.

In other words, we can make sure that whoever wants to operate in Putin's Russia understands that there is a clear risk of alienating their customers elsewhere and there is a price to pay for it.

“While theirs blood in the streets”

Ring a bell?

Bet Soros is on it..

Blood in that context of investing means massive low prices, not people's blood. I guess you are making some short of a joke?

...

however a company that they have a big responsibility. then if they suddenly leave from Russia. I think it's very cruel to the workers there. they will lose their jobs. and the company will suffer huge losses.
...

I partially agree with you. There are many Russians that have little to do with this war, however they could and should let their government know that aggression is not acceptable and, unfortunately, attacking the economy is a way of making the official propaganda much less credible.

Every business open in Putin's Russia as of now is contributing to finance the killing.
2424  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 29, 2022, 09:51:07 AM
...

We all agree that Albania, Hungary, Iceland etc... don't really have any say in NATO right?


They have a limited say, but an attack on any member is an attack on all. If that is not honoured, NATO would cease to exist. US and other members would take a"proportional response" as it is the standard in diplomacy and war. The choice of means and targets could vary - but certainly the nuclear response is not the first choice to respond to a non-nuclear aggression.

I meant for NATO to attack Russia, we all know it'll be only one country making that call. After bombing of Yugoslavia NATO cannot technically be called a "defensive" pact. If US declares war on Russia it'll do it under NATO no-fly zone, NATO intervention etc... Russia will have 30 nations declaring war on it and start attacking its air force. And people are willing to bet their lives that Russia won't use it's nuke arsenal under such circumstances? US used nukes on Japan for much dumber reasons.

...
Biden has already enough trouble with his popularity and chances of re-election to do that. He needs something he can sell as a successful peace and there is no way he can do so giving away Ukraine. Also, that would be a huge strategic error for the future and US analysts know that it would leave a less safe - thus more expensive - world behind.

US is the biggest unknown. Not a fan of Trump but with upcoming food shortages and gas prices, it's just too easy for a populist to win, Biden's ratings are already down and we're at the top of the hype. Think Biden is a lost cause, and that's an additional headache for EU. Consequences of their decision with Russia will be long term and painful, where any promises of support from US can flip in 2 years. Anyone seriously think that Trump will keep EU as a priority vs making America great once again, especially when China will be overtaking US?

...
Best case, well that depends for who? There are always competing interests but some ideas from top of my head:
-Russia: Ukraine surrendering (4 weeks ago or second best now), and Russia getting it back under it's sphere of influence
-US: Maximize chance of collapsing Russia by maximizing its pain via a proxy up to the last Ukrainian standing
-EU: This thing just going away ASAP, receiving natural resources to keep its heavy industries from collapsing and its population fed and warm during next winter
-Ukraine: Majority of populations just want to live "better" and don't really care about politics. Ukraine was the poorest country in EU and its GDP per capita was almost 4x lower than Russia. So financially, average Ukrainian would most likely be better off, under Russia. Freedom loving part of population are better off not coming back and staying in EU countries. Pretty much just like Cuba.
-China: Costly, long, drawn out conflict requiring huge investments from US with another Marshall Plan for Europe.
...

I think that it is very clear which side I am on: best case for Europe and Ukraine. US & China are only getting stronger with this and Putin's Tzardom, insofar as most of their population seem to be quite apathic about how they are governed, is not of my concern other than their ability to cause problems to others.

Certainly, not a war with WMD would fit a desirable solution to any party, which is the point of my post.

Again, I think that my position on this is very clear, but if I have to make it even more clear: a solution that causes a low number of civilian casualties, something the parties can live with given the damage inflicted to both sides, something that can be politically accepted for the relevant stakeholders, and, above all, a solution that does not encourage or that makes economically unfeasible any further conflict in the future.

On regards to your comments on EU, of course, ideally Europe wants this gone ASAP. While short term Germany chose to interlink with Russia, I think their leaders have gotten the message quite clear and the strategic exposure to Russia, while unchangeable short term, can and will be changed during the next five years. You cannot feed the bear no mater how nice he looks when asleep.

On your comment on Ukraine, people all over the world want to progress and "live better" in the ample sense. They know that this is not happening if they are part of the Tzardom. Also, people tend to like feeling free, even if freedom is never perfect something that, again, does not happen under a despotic foreign power's direct control.


Trades happen because they're beneficial for both parties, have you considered that maybe those cheap(er) natural resources what helped Germany become/stay where they are now? Do you think it can continue to stay competitive in global economy with it's high labor costs and now with natural resources say costing 20% more over China? Really doubt that their margins are that high. Germany already had to support economies of Greece, Portugal, Cyprus... pretty sure they didn't care and were fine with UA as it was pre 2014, and thinking WTF are you doing when US decided to hand out those freedom cookies. Don't see a good way out for them, oil/gas is a commodity, so it doesn't really matter how you shuffle it around the globe, all you're doing is making distribution less efficient. Freedom LNG from US would be at 20% premium and still won't cover their needs. Now on April 1st EU will have to start buying rubles to pay for gas while somehow trying to save face. One thing Russia has going for it is that after hitting the bottom it's hard to fall any lower, but EU still has a lot at risk and stuck between a rock and a hard place. These events can be a footnote in global history where (outside of UA) in 10yrs most won't remember it or it can end it.

I think that the first thing you need to stay competitive is having a country. If you are feeding a bear, he will bite you, so competitiveness at the cost of an existential threat is out of anyone's table. Before this war, I was already quite surprised of how close Germany was getting to Russia, but I thought they had really good reasons or leverage that I just was not in the know. Apparently, they did not.

Commodities and resources markets are usually quite "perfect" in the theoretical sense - products from Russia are no cheaper, they are just market price and easy to transport and, mid to long term, replaceable. A question we should be asking ourselves is why Putin is willing to sell to "unfriendly" countries as well. Seems that he cannot do without either? I am not sure that EU will accept paying in rubles. It may be the case of a pissing contest coming.

Just to put in context: Germany pays for the gas and funds Putin's war and then Putin send the gas to feed the industry that eventually produces the weapons that will kill the Russian young soldiers. Seems like everyone wins. Well, almost.

On regards to Germany "helping" the South Europe... Germany only helps Germany. Anything from them comes with strong strings attached.

Long term countries and markets adjust to newer circumstances and, as said, while Putin remains in power Russia is an unreliable partner, does not abide by any international law and cannot be assumed to honour commercial contracts.

I still can’t believe how long this has been going on. Absolutely terrible that civilians are dying as a result of Russia’s actions. I’m reading reports that there are cities where the dead aren’t even being cleaned up. They’re just littering the streets. Now you’re hearing about Ukrainian soldiers shooting captive Russian soldiers in the kneecaps. It’s just a lose-lose situation for everyone involved. It’s dumbfounding how this type of conflict can exist today. Russia’s claims appear a bit paranoid and they’re coming off a bit like the United States as we invaded Iraq for imaginary weapons.

There were no threats to russia from Ukraine, Ukraine has never attacked any country, never in its history. We are a peaceful people and have not threatened anyone. What is happening now is an invasion based on false propaganda. Most Russians support this and this is not normal in a civilized world, such a crime cannot be left unpunished, every guilty person will answer for it.

No country ever attacked another country, if you ask people of said country.

100k Poland people mass suicided, just so they could accuse Bandera

I am afraid there are many historical examples in which countries clearly understood they were the attackers. Germans will recognise that Hitler attacked Poland. I am not going to dig into Vikings, Mongols, Huns, Romans and others that were perfectly conscious of being on the offensive.
2425  Economy / Economics / Re: Could russia be the 1st to embrace a petro BTC on: March 28, 2022, 10:22:46 PM
Quote
Russia is open to accepting bitcoin for its natural resources exports, the chairman of the country’s Congressional energy committee, Pavel Zavalny, said in a press conference on Thursday.

Zavalny explained that Russia is open to accepting different currencies for its exports, beginning with natural gas, depending on the buyer’s preferred method of payment. However, the chairman said terms will depend on the importing country’s foreign relations status with Russia.
...


....


When the US dollar was used to buy and sell oil on a global scale, it was referred to as the petro dollar in this role. In 2018, china announced it would denominate oil transactions in its native currency, the yuan. At which time, people referred to it as the petro yuan. China also initially announced it would offer yuan exchange for gold, to setup something resembling a gold standard. Unfortunately, this aspect of the announcement never materialized.

Today it seems russia is prepared to sell natural gas and oil in bitcoin. Could this signal the beginning of a petro bitcoin? Russia also seems to be offering to sell its natural resources in exchange for precious metals like gold. A move which precious metals supporters who have long called for a return to a gold standard might approve of.

If russia sold oil in exchange for BTC could this represent yet another major step towards cryptocurrency mass adoption? Will other world leaders view these announcements as a trend for the future.
Translation: Putin's aggression has weakened the ruble to a ridiculous point. He is in need of reserves, the problem is that "unfriend countries" pay in USD or Euro that immediately get blocked, thus do not help paying for the war massive expenses.

Putin is happy to receive any payment that he can actually use. Yuan - no problem, gold - perfect!, bitcoin -perfect, can be exchanged fluidly, ...

For the "unfriendly", you have to buy rubles with your USD and then give us the rubles. This way, the USD cannot be retained nor blocked.

2426  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 28, 2022, 10:15:50 PM
I still can’t believe how long this has been going on. Absolutely terrible that civilians are dying as a result of Russia’s actions. I’m reading reports that there are cities where the dead aren’t even being cleaned up. They’re just littering the streets. Now you’re hearing about Ukrainian soldiers shooting captive Russian soldiers in the kneecaps. It’s just a lose-lose situation for everyone involved. It’s dumbfounding how this type of conflict can exist today. Russia’s claims appear a bit paranoid and they’re coming off a bit like the United States as we invaded Iraq for imaginary weapons.

Putin, not Russia IMHO.
2427  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 28, 2022, 08:16:29 PM
...
Many countries in Europe depend on Russian gas, but Germany is the most. Gazprom, even a month after the start of the special operation, pumps the maximum volume through the gas pipeline in Ukraine, showing itself to be a reliable supplier. The imposed sanctions do not allow Gazprom to receive and manage the money received as payment for the supplied gas, and Putin said to sell gas for rubles. For Gazprom, these are force majeure circumstances, quite a good reason to revise all contracts. Moreover, the European Union has created a special European Commission for the purchase of gas from Russia, so as not to create internal competition between different European countries in the price struggle for the same volumes.

As of now, I have not seen Putin cutting the supply either, yet I have seen Germany stating a strategy to diversify the supply in 2 years. Please, kindly as Putin if he thinks China will pay full price for his gas, as they will be their one and only client in 2 years. Ask the 200.000 Russian people that have left their country how they feel about this victory and, to those that remain, ask them how they feel about having the GPD limping and their jobs disappearing.
Germany needs Russian gas here and now, and the most optimistic strategy for phasing out Russian energy sources is designed for two years. The energy system is designed for a gas pipeline, to switch to liquefied gas it is necessary to build many tankers and terminals - and this is difficult, long and expensive. Most likely, new contracts between Russia and the European Union with the calculation in rubles will be signed directly or through a democratic lining.

The United States is acting according to the old manual, trying to embroil Russia and Germany. However, Russia's turn to the east could create an alliance of Russia, India and China, the likes of which the world has not yet seen in strength.
Putin's Russia has also de-facto defaulted the payment of debt. Would you lend money to Putin again? If you are unsure about the answer, just wait and see.
After the sanctions have blocked the funds of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros, with a ban on operations with gold, it is ridiculous to talk about Russia's default, rather it is a default of the West. Russia lives with a budget surplus and does not have a large external debt.

Ok, seems like I have some work here:

a) The commission created is actually to NOT buy gas from Russia, but to find reasonable alternative suppliers without competing.
b) To put things in context, Germany uses around 40% of Russian gas. That is no more than  10% of the total energy consumption of Germany.
c) The liquefaction facilities take a couple of years to build - less if you are really in a hurry, just as I said.
d) An alliance with China an India... sure, go for it and good luck. Putin has shown to be a great partner, who would not want him covering ones back? (It is ironic just in case).
e) Russia has prepared well for sanctions, until Putin got a large chunk of his reserves retained. Did he "prepare" that? What do you think that happens to a country that takes a 10% hit on its GDP after already loosing 10% to COVID? We are talking people looking in thrash cans a the young selling their bodies to save for a ticket out. Even the military may not get paid.

But you biggest piece here: "Force Majeure"

The definition of Force Majeure is certainly not that you currency is devaluating - not even a war unless it damages the infrastructure or makes it impossible to meet the supply - seriously, who told you that Putin supporting the Ruble is even remotely close to the legal definition of force majeure anywhere? Did you make that up yourself or is it the official propaganda?

Not even COVID has been considered as such for many business across several jurisdictions and even in that case you cannot change the payment or rents or other elements of contracts, at most you could not supply if, for example, a super-earthquake breaks the pipes (they are actually designed so that they don't break, but just as example).


2428  Other / Politics & Society / Brands not pulling out of Putin's Russia [list] on: March 28, 2022, 03:00:49 PM
Hi all, these are some brands that are happy to conduct their merry and profitable operations in Putin's Russia. "Do not ever let some carnage get in the way of profits" - said an executive when questioned about it (FAKE, or maybe not?). I am not saying you should boycott them or anything...

Decathlon  https://www.theretailbulletin.com/sports-and-leisure/decathlon-owner-accused-of-profiting-from-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-21-03-2022/
Leroy Merlin https://www.moviesonline.ca/leroy-merlin-does-not-remain-only-in-russia-the-company-cut-off-ukrainian-workers-from-the-communication-system/

And from a list here

Societe Generale
Xiaomi
Emirates Airline
Lenovo
Acer
AliBaba
Cloudflare
Credit Suisse
Wex Inc.
...

Many others are just suspending new investments and new contracts. I am particularly angry at Decathlon, as they were, until now, my favourite for leisure wear - You broke my heart Fredo.

Any other comes to mind?
2429  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Seven Military Generals Dead: Russia Underestimated Ukraine. on: March 28, 2022, 02:47:50 PM
How true is the news of Chelsea football club owner directly involved with talks about peace with Russia.
...

It is not true. What it is true is that some have asked for Abramovich to be excluded from sanctions and be a mediator before Putin. He is an oligarch and my take is that he is mostly about business, and this war is really bad for business. There is no winner, not even if Putin could achieve a massive defeat of Ukraine, still even he would be worse off than at the beginning.
2430  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 28, 2022, 02:40:05 PM
.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

False. A referendum requires effective peace, international observers, and agreed right to participation, and public discussion. There has not been any vote or referendum with the minimum guarantees of democracy and fairness, just a faked putsch that not even the most ignorant would accept. From your own reference article:

Quote
The results of the referendums were not officially recognised by any government.

I know you cannot understand any of this because you are drunk of Putin's propaganda but a referendum of independence cannot be held while there is state (Putin) sponsored militias using violence, the area is taken by tanks and there is no chance of the people giving their views with free press and freedom of speech.

If the people in the Donbas wish to be "ruled" by Putin after a honest and clear process, or, most likely would like to be independent, it would be perfectly fair. My take is that under such a circumstances, they would understand that Putin would immediately violate that independence and take them as yet another vassal to be scalped for profit.

...
Sooner or later someone had to replace North Korea is the official shi|t hole of the world
..

I hope that whoever the new "s..hole" results is better at filmaking.
2431  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 28, 2022, 02:28:54 PM
As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles

He can announce that he's the King of Mars, that doesn't make it real.

Frankly, I was more surprised by the sanctions from Switzerland, which has remained neutral for more than 300 years and did not refuse service even to Hitler.

Yeah a good hint as to how bad Putin's regime is.

When Switzerland is somehow reluctant to take your money it is definitely time to worry.
2432  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 28, 2022, 11:24:47 AM
I don't know about Russia's retaliatory capabilities against countries that don't border them but Putin will likely try something.
Putin today announced the sale of gas for rubles to unfriendly countries.
What kind of nonsense is this? There is no reason why Putin would want more Rubles? The Ruble is worthless and Putin has the ability to print an unlimited supply of Rubles.
I guess he just have to double-down. If they're not doing business with Russia then he would probably retaliate by withholding access to gas and oil.
Putin cannot actually follow through on threats to stop selling oil and gas. This is how Putin is financing the war. If Putin stops selling Russian energy to the West, he will quickly run out of money.

Putin's best bet is to threaten to withhold Russian energy from Europe to coerce them into lifting other sanctions, and into stopping supporting Ukraine militarily.
As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles, the ruble became the currency backed by Russian gas, which Europe needs right now just to survive and prevent the collapse of industrial production. What you call "money" is no longer money for Putin,

...

Until Putin needs to import anything from outside his Tzardom, in which case all the sudden money is, in the end, USD, Euros or Yuans as the ruble has zero use abroad.

Germany - not all Europe - needs a supply of gas that needs to pay in USD, as per the contracts signed for that supply. Putin has broken the international laws of commerce (not that he cares) and will pay dearly for it, as reputation cannot be brought back even paying for it. If you have any doubt about it, just consider if you would ever buy from someone that decides to change the signed terms unilaterally.

As of now, I have not seen Putin cutting the supply either, yet I have seen Germany stating a strategy to diversify the supply in 2 years. Please, kindly as Putin if he thinks China will pay full price for his gas, as they will be their one and only client in 2 years. Ask the 200.000 Russian people that have left their country how they feel about this victory and, to those that remain, ask them how they feel about having the GPD limping and their jobs disappearing.

Putin's Russia has also de-facto defaulted the payment of debt. Would you lend money to Putin again? If you are unsure about the answer, just wait and see.
2433  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Strategic defeat for Russia? on: March 28, 2022, 11:02:29 AM
Energie, natural gas and petrol is only one sector but i think Russia is also the largest exporter of fertilizer and lots of weath....
The metal market what russia supplies the world with:
Palladium 40%, Car exhaust (catalytic converter) ...
Platinum 2nd largest supplier, Car exhaust(Diesel) ...
Vanadium 2nd largest supplier, stronger Steel ...
Nickel 3rd largest supplier, all batteries, stainless steel.... (new all time high price)
Aluminium 2nd largest supplier, ....... (new all time high price)
Cobalt 2nd largest producer, batteries
Titanium 13% of global supply (41% of all german manufacture), airspace, golf clubs, engines
Gold 2nd biggest supplier

Politician boycott and sanction not the people (well some vaccinated zombies to), the people have no say in the matter

None of these minerals are strategic in the sense that they cannot be obtained from other locations, albeit perhaps there will be a cost of doing so. None of these elements are going to deter the West or force them into trading with Putin. The only exception is Crude Oil, and that may also be eventually sourced somehow else.

RE aluminium, that is quite funny that you mention: Putin would need to import the mineral from Australia to keep the production. Guess what Australia did recently about it? That's right, banned the export to Putin's Russia.

...

Map shows at what date a particular area was given to Ukraine.
Donbas was part of Ukraine for 25%  of Ukraines history (92 years out of 367)
If your argument is that Ukraine is 1142 old than Donbas region was 8% part of Ukraine
Donbas the two break away areas of Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's, a part of what Lenin gave away for personal gains.
The modern nations of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine all claim Kievan Rus' as their cultural ancestors, with Belarus and Russia deriving their names from it.




Again posting over and over the same image in every thread. The right to rule does not come from the right of contest, who ruled before or any "god given reason" but only from the will of the people that live there. We do not live in the middle ages or else Putin would have to give half of Russia to Mongolia.
2434  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 28, 2022, 08:28:07 AM
.........................
In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

..................

And the people in Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic have voted to break away, and have the own country.
Zelenskyy, Putin, you, I or anyone else has no say in the matter.
Let me remind you coercion is not legal.

Putin fabricated the referendum. What are you talking about?

..................


And the over 16000 deaths in the last 8 years?
...


Answered over and over, Putin has been supporting the paramilitary pro-annexation. Putin has tried to make the case for a genocide in international institutions and failed to provide any evidence. Putin would not go to war on the ground of anyone being killed except himself, he is one of the major murderers of the XXI centuries and cares only about himself and his business.

Launching over and over links with propaganda and inundating a thread with images will not prevent a more productive discussion for those who wish to have one. It may work in Putin's Tzardom where people cannot have access to different views, but it does not work here. Whoever is paying you is wasting the money they need to dig graves for the soldiers.



Seriously? Do you think this is a Indiana Jones movie??
2435  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Seven Military Generals Dead: Russia Underestimated Ukraine. on: March 27, 2022, 11:16:42 PM
On the topic, the rate of dead generals is not excessive... if you compare it with the full massive scale war situation during the Second World war.

jokes apart, the rate of dead generals is around 1 every 5 days, extremely high for most armies, but not for Putins army, which has more than 2000 generals. The reason they are killed at this rate is the poor coordination in the army - they are even using unencrypted comms - that makes it necessary to have generals in the frontline.
2436  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Time to help Ukraine push back on: March 27, 2022, 10:20:04 PM
Looks like NATO wants this to go into attrition mode. Followed by guerilla warfare.

This is the worst outcome for Ukrainians and Russians alike as this conflict might go on for years, or until Russia runs out of tanks.

snip

All the suggestions you made is nice but the problem is NATO seem to want to be in a war and not in a war at the same time LOL. The response is pretty lukewarm if you ask me and I don't think they'd be going into formally Russian-controlled territories any time soon.

Ukraine would be a wasteland and maybe that's want to do, bog down Russia in there without directly involving any NATO member.

NATO wants to help Ukraine without creating the risk of starting a multinational conflict that could end up with the use of WDM. That would not be an outcome adequate for Ukraine or for anyone else. This is much more of a brain surgery than a case of who throws a 10 kg stone harder at the other guy's face.

I have mixed feelings about this idea, I was actually against sending weapons in Ukraine, not because I'm against supporting Ukraine, but because Europe is provoking Russia into moving a larger scale war, either financially and militarily. How is sending military support solving this situation? Is that reducing the risk of having a third World War, because to me, it sounds like we'd be provoking it.

...

It sound like making sure Putin understands that there is nothing to win by waging war. He has been killing around in Georgia, Osetia then annexed Crimea, instated a puppet in Belorussia... is time to do something about it, as WWIII could actually be a result of letting this guy think that war is profitable.
2437  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 27, 2022, 10:01:01 PM
...

I see people using the terms carpet shelling/bombing, and encouraging escalations in Ukraine, but i'm pretty sure they don't know what those terms really mean. Just find it ironic how everyone wants to see Ukraine take on Russia, and they're even willing to sacrifice their...weapons for it. This is what US did in just 11 days (18–29 December 1972). Those that call for escalations are they really expecting Putin just to fold and not do the same thing US did? Or did Geneva convention change since 1972? Does Russia have much else to loose? What are the odds people put on Putin just folding? Sure double daring Putin with Ukraine seems like a great idea, i'm sure Ukraine will turn out just fine.
...

How does a reasonable, unbiased and feasible solution looks like for you on this war of agression:

NATO intervenes, Putin feels free to use non-conventional arsenal and attack NATO bases. Possible results:
a - Putin gets very scared, he sees that he may loose power and withdraws the army.
b - Putin goes harder, he cannot afford to loose face. Nato and Russian troops engage and by some miracle, Putin does not use any WMD. Relations are broken for decades, NATO and EU weaponize, Russia limps on a sanctioned economy.
c - Limited nuclear response (tactical or limited strategic) Ukraine radioactive for the next few decades as other bits of Europe and cities in Russia. Massive re-arming across the world, massive health and hunger across the world...
d - It escalates, first nuke fire, then second, then.... well...end of story and history.

NATO supports Ukraine with as much conventional means as to stop the ability of Putin to continue the war effectively.
a - Putin decides to keep the conquered land. He will be facing stiff opposition even funded by the West, the region may be on an undeclared war for decades.
b - Putin decides to reach a peace agreement that includes returning part of the conquered land. This looks like something that could be sustainable for both parties.
c - Putin completely withdraws in exchange for removing sanctions.
d - Putin puts all he is got and war escalates, we found ourselves on the first scenario.
e - Ukraine is not able to hold. A peace is achieve at the cost of massive loss of territory and a puppet government without military power.

On the second scenario, the chances of a massive catastrophe are much lower. And that is the better option, even for Ukraine that stands a chance of keeping large parts of the territory and have a very weakened neighbour that may not have the economics to wage further wars.

Now, consider that on the first scenario there is a chance of global or regional full nuclear destruction. Is that how a solution looks to anyone? Even if there is a 10% of that happening. It does not work for Ukraine either as they would likely be the first ones being nuked in all likelihood.


And this is where hypocrisy lies, people complain how the other side calls it "special operation" yet are so eager to say NATO "intervenes" or sets up no-fly zone. You can't complain about BS from one side only to spit out your own BS. Both of these mean the same thing

[...]

I do not think I can make it more clear. Nato intervenes means clearly acts of war against Russia yes - what is the hypocrisy here? The wording?. I could not care less about how each would decide to call it, the scenario is the same. BTW, I do not complain about propaganda, I just tend to say it is propaganda.

As for the rest of your message, I am not sure I get your point - what is you realistic and feasible best case solution?

On the lateral topics you are talking, like Cuba, ... I do not think the embargo to Cuba has ever brought anyone any closer to a peaceful solution of any kind, if that is the question, nor I consider it particularly ethical.


We all agree that Albania, Hungary, Iceland etc... don't really have any say in NATO right?


They have a limited say, but an attack on any member is an attack on all. If that is not honoured, NATO would cease to exist. US and other members would take a"proportional response" as it is the standard in diplomacy and war. The choice of means and targets could vary - but certainly the nuclear response is not the first choice to respond to a non-nuclear aggression.


...

Realistic case: US sells out Ukraine with some backhanded deal with Russia. Covered in such a way so everyone saves face


Biden has already enough trouble with his popularity and chances of re-election to do that. He needs something he can sell as a successful peace and there is no way he can do so giving away Ukraine. Also, that would be a huge strategic error for the future and US analysts know that it would leave a less safe - thus more expensive - world behind.

...
Best case, well that depends for who? There are always competing interests but some ideas from top of my head:
-Russia: Ukraine surrendering (4 weeks ago or second best now), and Russia getting it back under it's sphere of influence
-US: Maximize chance of collapsing Russia by maximizing its pain via a proxy up to the last Ukrainian standing
-EU: This thing just going away ASAP, receiving natural resources to keep its heavy industries from collapsing and its population fed and warm during next winter
-Ukraine: Majority of populations just want to live "better" and don't really care about politics. Ukraine was the poorest country in EU and its GDP per capita was almost 4x lower than Russia. So financially, average Ukrainian would most likely be better off, under Russia. Freedom loving part of population are better off not coming back and staying in EU countries. Pretty much just like Cuba.
-China: Costly, long, drawn out conflict requiring huge investments from US with another Marshall Plan for Europe.
...

I think that it is very clear which side I am on: best case for Europe and Ukraine. US & China are only getting stronger with this and Putin's Tzardom, insofar as most of their population seem to be quite apathic about how they are governed, is not of my concern other than their ability to cause problems to others.

Certainly, not a war with WMD would fit a desirable solution to any party, which is the point of my post.

Again, I think that my position on this is very clear, but if I have to make it even more clear: a solution that causes a low number of civilian casualties, something the parties can live with given the damage inflicted to both sides, something that can be politically accepted for the relevant stakeholders, and, above all, a solution that does not encourage or that makes economically unfeasible any further conflict in the future.

On regards to your comments on EU, of course, ideally Europe wants this gone ASAP. While short term Germany chose to interlink with Russia, I think their leaders have gotten the message quite clear and the strategic exposure to Russia, while unchangeable short term, can and will be changed during the next five years. You cannot feed the bear no mater how nice he looks when asleep.

On your comment on Ukraine, people all over the world want to progress and "live better" in the ample sense. They know that this is not happening if they are part of the Tzardom. Also, people tend to like feeling free, even if freedom is never perfect something that, again, does not happen under a despotic foreign power's direct control.

..


As said many times, if you go back in time enough you would have to give it all to the Mongols. Whatever historically happened to a territory is not the base of who and how should hold the legitimate right to govern - that is simply medieval philosophy and justifying ruling and submission "by the grace of God" or on "historical rights of conquest".

In the world today, that right belongs only to the people who actually live in there.

I understand that you being a Kremlin Troll cannot grasp the concept of people choosing their own leaders and governments.
2438  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: March 26, 2022, 11:44:39 PM
...

I see people using the terms carpet shelling/bombing, and encouraging escalations in Ukraine, but i'm pretty sure they don't know what those terms really mean. Just find it ironic how everyone wants to see Ukraine take on Russia, and they're even willing to sacrifice their...weapons for it. This is what US did in just 11 days (18–29 December 1972). Those that call for escalations are they really expecting Putin just to fold and not do the same thing US did? Or did Geneva convention change since 1972? Does Russia have much else to loose? What are the odds people put on Putin just folding? Sure double daring Putin with Ukraine seems like a great idea, i'm sure Ukraine will turn out just fine.
...

How does a reasonable, unbiased and feasible solution looks like for you on this war of agression:

NATO intervenes, Putin feels free to use non-conventional arsenal and attack NATO bases. Possible results:
a - Putin gets very scared, he sees that he may loose power and withdraws the army.
b - Putin goes harder, he cannot afford to loose face. Nato and Russian troops engage and by some miracle, Putin does not use any WMD. Relations are broken for decades, NATO and EU weaponize, Russia limps on a sanctioned economy.
c - Limited nuclear response (tactical or limited strategic) Ukraine radioactive for the next few decades as other bits of Europe and cities in Russia. Massive re-arming across the world, massive health and hunger across the world...
d - It escalates, first nuke fire, then second, then.... well...end of story and history.

NATO supports Ukraine with as much conventional means as to stop the ability of Putin to continue the war effectively.
a - Putin decides to keep the conquered land. He will be facing stiff opposition even funded by the West, the region may be on an undeclared war for decades.
b - Putin decides to reach a peace agreement that includes returning part of the conquered land. This looks like something that could be sustainable for both parties.
c - Putin completely withdraws in exchange for removing sanctions.
d - Putin puts all he is got and war escalates, we found ourselves on the first scenario.
e - Ukraine is not able to hold. A peace is achieve at the cost of massive loss of territory and a puppet government without military power.

On the second scenario, the chances of a massive catastrophe are much lower. And that is the better option, even for Ukraine that stands a chance of keeping large parts of the territory and have a very weakened neighbour that may not have the economics to wage further wars.

Now, consider that on the first scenario there is a chance of global or regional full nuclear destruction. Is that how a solution looks to anyone? Even if there is a 10% of that happening. It does not work for Ukraine either as they would likely be the first ones being nuked in all likelihood.


And this is where hypocrisy lies, people complain how the other side calls it "special operation" yet are so eager to say NATO "intervenes" or sets up no-fly zone. You can't complain about BS from one side only to spit out your own BS. Both of these mean the same thing

[...]

I do not think I can make it more clear. Nato intervenes means clearly acts of war against Russia yes - what is the hypocrisy here? The wording?. I could not care less about how each would decide to call it, the scenario is the same. BTW, I do not complain about propaganda, I just tend to say it is propaganda.

As for the rest of your message, I am not sure I get your point - what is you realistic and feasible best case solution?

On the lateral topics you are talking, like Cuba, ... I do not think the embargo to Cuba has ever brought anyone any closer to a peaceful solution of any kind, if that is the question, nor I consider it particularly ethical.
2439  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration on: March 26, 2022, 10:12:08 PM
Sanctions against Russia are unprecedented and very painful (no one in the world lost $300 billion of their reserves overnight).
This is what you call painful? Tell her about unprecedentness and pain
It is unfortunate that Russia's operation is fraught with humanitarian risk for the civilian population, and it is doubly unfortunate when children suffer from the inability of diplomats and politicians to agree.

...

I just can't believe that you just tried to white-wash the killing of children.

As it is "unfortunate" that many young Russian soldiers have to die in vain for the delusions of a septuagenarian. As it is "unfortunate" that so many Russians - many not supporting Putin - will have hardship and poverty when no decent company would want to be in Russia nor touch their exports.

But most of all, I encourage you, so supportive of the war, to go there yourself. I am sure that you will be a fierce combatant in the name of Putin and will not care about the "unfortunate risks" that you may encounter along the way. You see, it is quite different from throwing shit-talk behind a keyboard where the only risk is to twist your fingers or, worst case, starting to really believe your own bullshit.

Putin declared the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia the default of the West and carried out a soft nationalization without causing internal protest from his voters. This is a strong move.

AKA propaganda with no actual economic impact.

It is starting to look quite pathetic. It must be difficult to be in the propaganda directorate under Putin... perhaps we should ask a few people around this thread how things are going in the company.
2440  Other / Politics & Society / Time to help Ukraine push back on: March 26, 2022, 09:52:33 PM
In my view, it is about time for US and Europe to start providing Ukraine with the right equipment and support for their army to be able to push back Putin's army back into Russian borders. Let's make sure that this war is the last one he dares to wage and we will all, including Russians, be safer and, one day, more prosperous.

Now is time to stop "resisting" and start the ass-kicking.
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