With the form of the triangle and thrust alone, I would be confident in looking for a medium term top here, but the potential of the dominant count is devastatingly bearish. it would be (iii) of iii to follow. What follows will be interesting to watch.

No not that high. 240 would be a push.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

I dont like it. he is counting an ED, thats a 3-3-3-3-3 move, but the keystone of this analysis is the impulse and complete flat from the 1800s.

This is my adjusted count. having recognized the clear form of the triangle the moment it resolved I should have seen this one earlier.

Note that having a clear impulse count down to the 1335 level (just 35yuan short of my minimum target) it is possible, but not overly probable, and certainly not confirmed that an ABC, the yellow count, is playing out. My dominant count is however unchanged, I think there is significant risk of sub 1000 yuan retest soon.

Hey,

A triangle is an example of 5 wave of 3, they occur in wave B or iv position, they are not considered impulsive, it is just a phenomena that genuine triangles are observed to have 5 waves of 3. The triangle in this count is not a critical part of the count, there are other ways to get around that, but the triangle is good form.

Wave B may retrace more than wave A, the definition of a running flat is where wave B goes a step further. They are not common, only in markets of particularly strong rate of change, wave iii is one example of this kind of situation.

Yeah, it would make a big wave B if thats what it is, I cant say much for the volume.

We have little choice of alternate counts in this situation because the larger time frames are just excellent form. We are assuming that we are in an impulse and that it s not complete.

Ryan has put it well but there is one more count I see possible, DanV is counting this one too.

It's a heavy running flat, not unexpected in case of ii of III

Im not a believer in single digits, but youll have to think of better odds than 1:1 if you want somebody to take up the bet. why wouldnt I just short it, leverage 10x, R/R 10:1 and Im a winner.

it is really hard to say, just keep focused on the bigger picture. At a guess 200 should fight and 180 very likely.

  

its only fair that he gives us a chance. oy, H3speros, wait up!

Im an EW analyst not a fundamentalist, but if you really want my view, I think BTC still has a part to play in the world.


 

As of late I am fast becoming a whale.

[enter Hanlons's Razor]


I have had my ups and downs, and am happy to see net positive results. Now a moments silence for those who have come off second best using EW because of bad luck and bad trading.

Lets keep confidence in our EW predictions at a healthy level, afterall, the fat lady hasnt quite sung yet.

yeah... its not right, form or fibs. but like i said, larger tf gets right of way so its ok. DanV is calling for running flat, meaning there could be a bounce to 230 or so before moar down toward 1300

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

omg.... can it be true.... I am in third place?? did Ryan forget to sell?? we need update pls   

I wouldnt count on a proper wave c 

She is almost tipping, the fall could come any time in the next couple of days in the case of wave iii of III, (or C, as the case may be) all counts are aiming for 1300 and below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AmRMWlnB/

 

Time frames are tough. There is a real chance that this bear market could unfold rapidly, like in a couple of weeks only to reach new lows, while even in an impulsive count it could take much longer than that, like 6 weeks. alternate counts could take a few months. We can only get a better idea after a fair portion of the wave unfolds.

Awww shucks guys.  

An impulse always follows an impulse, we could be in wave C of an ABC zig zag, or wave III of a larger impulse towards yearly and possibly final yearly lows. The impulse is the preferred count on a larger scale but following what exactly.. it is unclear. So the target for a worst case scenario (for shorts  ) wave C is around 1300. This is just because it is a 0.618 retrace of the 2015 rally, the target is not otherwise clear with so little form within the wave. Targets to be prepared for in the case of a larger impulse will also become clearer as it unfolds, but there are some critical points in the case of specific counts. The $90 level is a possible minimum in the case of an expanding diagonal wave C where wave V must be greater than wave III. This would likely also be the reversal level, not that this price could be tolerated for any great length of time in that case. Otherwise gently testing yearly lows at about 800yuan is the most plausible situation.

I do believe Ryan has a good xyz count for a much bumpier road to yearly lows, makes sense if you dont see a motive for all this shenanigans.

Im not interested in right or wrong, it's about valid and invalid which is why I dont need any apologies from critics. Its those that make things bitter and think one example of anything ever has enough bearing to bring down a sound principle, they bug me. Im really glad to see there are some people out there who can see the EW principle for what it is, nothing more and nothing less. Happy Dumps.

I have locked the thread, just temporarily. Just letting it cool off, for some reason it was a hot day for some trolls. no worries.

do you think I meant on the hour? lol, no I wasnt joking. I think we will see dumps in the coming 24hr

I dont thnk 236 is a lasting bottom.