Critical Levels - EW analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

6h PSAR flipped to bullish today on Bitstamp and could very soon flip on Bitfinex too (Chinese exchanges don't show anymore on bitcoincharts).
There is also a weak bullish divergence in multiple MACD time frames, so going up before taking the big plunge is possible.

Why the Bitstamp 6h PSAR is still bearish on bitcoinwisdom? Shouldn't both site have the same data and formula?

They probably have different closes or different formula

Does RSI always move up with correctives?

RSI usually moves with the price. It's when it diverges that it becomes a good topping/bottoming signal.

[fabrizio123]

The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall  
But maybe i'm wrong

[chessnut]

The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall  
But maybe i'm wrong

I wouldnt count on a proper wave c 

She is almost tipping, the fall could come any time in the next couple of days in the case of wave iii of III, (or C, as the case may be) all counts are aiming for 1300 and below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AmRMWlnB/

[eboard10]

The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall  
But maybe i'm wrong

I wouldnt count on a proper wave c 

She is almost tipping, the fall could come any time in the next couple of days in the case of wave iii of III, (or C, as the case may be) all counts are aiming for 1300 and below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AmRMWlnB/

Yep, and given that this wave 3/C should be at least as large as Wave 1/A, we are looking at a minimum fall to 1150, most likely falling under 1000.

[fabrizio123]

The sideways is b of II, the c will bring us up and then a big fall  
But maybe i'm wrong

I wouldnt count on a proper wave c  

She is almost tipping, the fall could come any time in the next couple of days in the case of wave iii of III, (or C, as the case may be) all counts are aiming for 1300 and below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AmRMWlnB/

Yep, and given that this wave 3/C should be at least as large as Wave 1/A, we are looking at a minimum fall to 1150, most likely falling under 1000.

It' s not sure it's also possibile that 3 or c will be less large than 1
EDIT: but i'm not so confident about that

[Raystonn]

[Tzupy]

Good call, chessnut!
This time the 6h PSAR was misleading, and there was no little bounce before the dump.

[chessnut]

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

[oda.krell]

been lurking in here for a while, first post to say: good analysis, good call 

[JustAnotherSheep]

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

Could it possibly have been (iv) of i? Although fib proportions of the subwaves don't seem optimal for this count.

[chessnut]

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

Could it possibly have been (iv) of i? Although fib proportions of the subwaves don't seem optimal for this count.

yeah... its not right, form or fibs. but like i said, larger tf gets right of way so its ok. DanV is calling for running flat, meaning there could be a bounce to 230 or so before moar down toward 1300

[Afrikoin]

To be fair, chessnut has got A LOT of calls right. Just have a look at this thread's history. I guess this one seems huge for noob lurkers because - market was bullish, long swaps were up, PSAR  yada BLA Bla BLA - only sanity i found was here, so thanks for the perspective!



Now, please do not pull the rug from under us and shutdown this thread. Like Ryan did

[podyx]

chessnut, I'm curious on what you think that bitcoin will fail? Meaning if we go down to $100 or whatever we won't be seeing prices over, let's say $250, ever again.

Do you think another cryptocurrency could eventually overtake it? Or do you think that bitcoin still has a bright future?

[Odalv]

chessnut is a whale (or payed by whale) and he wants to get your coins cheap. :-) ... so dump your coins as fast as possible

[chessnut]

chessnut, I'm curious on what you think that bitcoin will fail? Meaning if we go down to $100 or whatever we won't be seeing prices over, let's say $250, ever again.

Do you think another cryptocurrency could eventually overtake it? Or do you think that bitcoin still has a bright future?

Im an EW analyst not a fundamentalist, but if you really want my view, I think BTC still has a part to play in the world.

chessnut is a whale (or payed by whale) and he wants to get your coins cheap. :-) ... so dump your coins as fast as possible

 

As of late I am fast becoming a whale.

[enter Hanlons's Razor]

To be fair, chessnut has got A LOT of calls right. Just have a look at this thread's history. I guess this one seems huge for noob lurkers because - market was bullish, long swaps were up, PSAR  yada BLA Bla BLA - only sanity i found was here, so thanks for the perspective!



Now, please do not pull the rug from under us and shutdown this thread. Like Ryan did

I have had my ups and downs, and am happy to see net positive results. Now a moments silence for those who have come off second best using EW because of bad luck and bad trading.

Lets keep confidence in our EW predictions at a healthy level, afterall, the fat lady hasnt quite sung yet.

[RyNinDaCleM]

thanks,

one eye sore here for me is that hypothetical wave ii best takes the form of a triangle (which would be a terminal move to some degree) but it doesnt fit here in any larger time frame..... im interested in what Ryan thinks of this.

.....it doesnt have right of way so to speak because the larger count is still just fine.

If it was indeed a triangle (there really wasn't a market wide consensus), it only fits as a larger 4th and today's dumps was the thrust move to complete 1 of III, or it was part of a complex correction where Y was a triangle. This fits as a wave 2 and uses up all the necessary time for a wave-2. Since these last two larger corrections were so shallow in retracement, just 38.2%, this explosive move was expected by most EWers. If this was just the start of 3 of III then I feel sorry for the bulls over the next month or so.

Now, please do not pull the rug from under us and shutdown this thread. Like Ryan did

I had good reason to lock my thread and quit making my counts public. When it adversely affects my profitability, that's where I draw the line. Within minutes of posting an update, there would be walls, moves and front running of my charts. once or twice I could just brush off as coincidence, but it was happening frequently and rather than using it to my advantage and ruining my credibility, I decided to close the thread.

[Xiaoxiao]

Where is the next resistance?  Are we at near resistance right now (~$218) ?  Looks like resistance will be met at 200-210?

[chessnut]

Where is the next resistance?  Are we at near resistance right now (~$218) ?  Looks like resistance will be met at 200-210?

it is really hard to say, just keep focused on the bigger picture. At a guess 200 should fight and 180 very likely.

[damiano]

Where is the next resistance?  Are we at near resistance right now (~$218) ?  Looks like resistance will be met at 200-210?

it is really hard to say, just keep focused on the bigger picture. At a guess 200 should fight and 180 very likely.

$200 will be exciting to watch 

[coinableS]

Just wanted to stop in and congratulate Chessnut on is EW analysis from a few days ago. Spot on, bravo! Even as a bull I still must acknowledge your accuracy    Keep it up!